Posted on 02/01/2012 6:47:09 AM PST by montag813
I just heard Newt’s speech after Florida and I have come to realize that Newt is going to win the GOP nomination and be the next president.
I understand that most people think that Romney is most likely, but I do not agree. First, Romney has never shown the ability to get the majority of the votes in any primary. Second, Romney’s win in Florida took place with no actual consideration of Romney’s record or ideas — Romney’s entire campaign was based on the idea that Romney is the only person who can beat Obama. His whole campaign in FL was on attacking Newt. Third, the voting numbers showed Gingrich did very well in the Fl. panhandle, which votes like southern states. This suggests that Gingrich will likely sweep the South.
Gingrich’s problems in FL were easy to fix. Gingrich got off message. Gingrich froze in the face of shock and awe from Romney’s attacks. Finally, Gingrich faced the one state that only Romney had a strong campaign organization in. The fact of the matter is that Romney had to compete in Iowa with almost everyone and lost. Romney had to compete in NH with Huntsman and won. Romney had to compete in SC with Santorum, Perry, and Gingrich and lost. FL was always too big for anyone but Romney to have a strong organization and ad campaign in. Gingrich had the momentum, but Romney had a uniquely large organization advantage for FL.
In future states Romney will continue to have an organization advantage, especially through Super Tuesday, but as the primary goes on, Romney’s advantage will drop as (1) later states even out since Romney is running a campaign like Clinton did in 2008 and his organization is strongest early, (2) as the race goes on voters will develop more solid opinions and organization will mater less, and (3) Gingrich will emerge as the alternative to Romney and will be better organized as people realize he is the only hope for conservatives in this race.
In terms of campaign focus, Gingrich is now developing a new contract with America and I expect he will use that to stay on message and contrast himself with Romney. Gingrich held a vote on all items he promised to and did what he could to pass them for the original contract. That was a promise kept for him. He will have credibility for his new contract and this will contrast him with Romney who cannot be trusted and is not conservative.
In terms of Romney’s shock and awe attacks, it is hard to see Romney get much worse. Romney’s negatives have already shot up, and it is almost impossible to think of what worse things Romney can attack Gingrich for. Romney already used several lines of attack have had blow back, and if he picked those as ‘go,’ it is hard to think he has anything left to fire with. The Romney smear campaign will need to let-up at some time or Romney will completely implode. How long can a campaign be 99.9% negative?
What it comes down to is that Gingrich is a real candidate, and Romney is a pretender. Gingrich has real conservative ideas to fix the problems we are in. Romney has talking points.
Don’t think you’re a permanent resident.
A Romney-bot from ‘98 was evicted last night.
Tick tock.
Yes. You’re a troll on a conservative site. FR does not and will not support Slick Willard. This forum DOES support the Reaganite candidate, Newt Gingrich. Romney supporters will be zot.
Some of them absolutely are. They have no idea what a conservative is if they’re pushing Romney and his new buddy Santorum.
Please tell me it was gswilder. He/she/it is the most smug Romneybot concern troll on FR.
And, no, I will not courtesy ping the troll.
Deader ‘n a doornail! Woo Hoo!!!
Mitt was advised by John Holdren, who is the ‘sterilize women’ and ‘forced abortions’ guy, along with the ‘there will be so many dead people that we’ll have to liquify them and shoot them into space’ guy.
The man is a regular Himmler and he advised Mitt. Scary as Sunstein, actual POTUS Jarrett, or Van Jones. Holdren is executing his ‘de-development’ of America as I write this.
LOL. That one too, and also Brian Baldwin.
Did I claim that Newt is God’s gift to women or that I vote based on looks, LOL? Calm down. My point was that it’s possible Ingraham might let that influence her a bit. In my experience, foolish women who giggle about Romney don’t turn around and support someone else. That’s all I’m saying.
That just made my morning!
Thanks for that update, DJ!
I’m afraid Newt is toast. He is being outspent by McRomney, who do well in the western Mormon states. Only hope would be for Santorum to drop out and endorse Newt.
Exactly right. Two NorthEastern “Republicans.” Give us a break.
You’re welcome. :-)
Romney is nothing more than a white Obama.
Santorum is in Slick Willards hip pocket. He's running interference for him.
That in itself is an idiotic statement. Love the irony. Nice going!
“the moon colony stuff”
Well, Communist China has plans for one.
Newt simply is erratic and not disciplined. He is his own worst enemy.
Romney mailed out absentee ballots to every Florida voter, along with campaign materials.
IS that legal?
I thought that only the State could make/prepare/mail out ballots & provide the ballots for election day voting.
Would it be a fraud for ANYONE to ‘prepare & mail out ballots’???
We have a drinker of the gun grabbing socialist Romney kool aide on aisle 4.
Advocate for your socialist scum elsewhere.
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