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Syria, Iran Cracking
San Diego Union-Tribune ^ | Saturday, February 4th, 2012 | Washington Post

Posted on 02/04/2012 9:14:51 PM PST by SunkenCiv

Imperial regimes can crack when they are driven out of their major foreign outposts. The fall of the Berlin Wall did not just signal the liberation of Eastern Europe from Moscow. It prefigured the collapse of the Soviet Union itself just two years later.

The fall of Bashar al-Assad's Syria could be similarly ominous for Iran. The alliance with Syria is the centerpiece of Iran's expanding sphere of influence, a mini-Comintern that includes such clients as Iranian armed and directed Hezbollah, now the dominant power in Lebanon; and Hamas, which controls Gaza and threatens to take the rest of Palestine (the West Bank) from a feeble Fatah.

Additionally, Iran exerts growing pressure on Afghanistan to the east and growing influence in Iraq to the west. Tehran has even extended its horizon to Latin America, as symbolized by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's solidarity tour through Venezuela, Ecuador, Nicaragua and Cuba.

Of all these clients, Syria is the most important. It's the only Arab state openly allied with non-Arab Iran. This is significant because the Arabs see the Persians as having had centuries-old designs to dominate the Middle East. Indeed, Iranian arms and trainers, transshipped to Hezbollah through Syria, have given the Persians their first outpost on the Mediterranean in 2,300 years.

But the Arab-Iranian divide is not just national/ethnic. It is sectarian. The Arabs are overwhelmingly Sunni. Iran is Shiite. The Arab states fear Shiite Iran infiltrating the Sunni homeland through (apart from Iraq) Hezbollah in Lebanon, and through Syria, run by Assad's Alawites, a heterodox offshoot of Shiism.

Which is why the fate of the Assad regime is geopolitically crucial. It is, of course, highly significant for reasons of democracy and human rights as well.

(Excerpt) Read more at utsandiego.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: iran; syria
Syria, Iran Cracking

1 posted on 02/04/2012 9:15:00 PM PST by SunkenCiv
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Same meme — Berlin Wall fell, USSR fell two years later — as seen earlier in the week; basically, this is a partisan media shill ping, although the ideas are worthwhile on their own. Where have these ideas been since March?


2 posted on 02/04/2012 9:16:53 PM PST by SunkenCiv (FReep this FReepathon!)
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To: SunkenCiv

It’s likely premature to say Syria is cracking as you don’t know what will follow if Assad should fall.

It’s nonsense to say Iran is cracking unless you mean cracking down. They are moving ahead with ICBM development and have the enrichment going full blast for nuclear material toward a bomb.

For all we know they already have a bomb or two. North Korea has been operating rogue for years. You don’t know what they have turned over to Iran let alone China or Pakistan.

This is not an easy situation to gauge let alone handle.

The best outcome would be for the Syrians to overthrow Baby Assad.
Their army may be imploding due to the rifts of literally shooting and bombing civilian cities.

Or it could be wishful thinking. Very fluid situation and not what this short article is saying.


3 posted on 02/04/2012 9:30:40 PM PST by romanesq (For George Soros so loved the world, he gave us Obama)
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To: SunkenCiv

More liberal wishful thinking. Weren’t they saying the same thing about Adolf’s regime, right before they actually had to go to war against them?


4 posted on 02/04/2012 9:50:53 PM PST by Olog-hai
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To: romanesq

My bet? Assad will fall and what comes behind , guaranteed will be worse... worse for all, but in the short run Iran will not lose.


5 posted on 02/04/2012 11:00:47 PM PST by himno hero (Obamas theme...Death to America...The crusaders will pay!)
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To: SunkenCiv

Perhaps a shill. But the critical position of Syria as a link from Iran to the Mediterranean is brain dead obvious. The fall of Syria as an Iranian stooge state will hurt Iran a lot. This is, of course, why Zero and his crew have been so ginger about Syria and so bold about Egypt, Libya et al. It would actually help the US a lot if Assad fell. Not so much the others.


6 posted on 02/04/2012 11:11:48 PM PST by ModelBreaker
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To: SunkenCiv

IMHO, they are both Sh*tites..


7 posted on 02/05/2012 12:32:16 AM PST by sheik yerbouty ( Make America and the world a jihad free zone!)
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To: ModelBreaker
It would actually help the US a lot if Assad fell.

Israel prefers that Assad stay in place, concerned that a more dangerous Sunni might replace him. Christians have more protection under Alawite Assad. The media tells us that the Saudis want a Sunni in power, which is supposed to be a good thing since it disconnects Iran from Hammas. I don't know who to believe.

8 posted on 02/05/2012 12:53:15 AM PST by Kennard
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To: Kennard

Assad falls and the Syrian Christians need to get out...will Israel welcome them? May the Islamic fanatics keep killing each other!


9 posted on 02/05/2012 3:54:01 AM PST by iopscusa (El Vaquero. (SC Lowcountry Cowboy))
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To: romanesq

The best outcome would be for the Syrians to overthrow

Not likely now that Russia has stepped in. Russian troops are on standby. Russian aircraft carrier group parked at Tantos, Syria. The resistance quarter of Homs is being shelled flat.

They will not allow Syria to fall. Besides they would like to see how all those shiny new weapons they sold Syria work in combat - big money and all, you know.

NATO (the US) cannot step in, short of starting a shooting war with Russia.

The Syria Army has rallied and recommited to Assad. Rogue elements have been “marginalized”.


10 posted on 02/05/2012 5:13:12 AM PST by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now it is your turn ...)
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To: SunkenCiv
Which is why the fate of the Assad regime is geopolitically crucial. It is, of course, highly significant for reasons of democracy and human rights as well.

People who believe some sort of democratic utopia will replace Assad's regime obviously haven't been paying much attention to the other nations in the region.

More importantly on the geopolitical side is: What does Iran do with their ME influence waning and regime desperation growing?

11 posted on 02/05/2012 6:07:13 AM PST by edpc (Wilby 2012)
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To: PIF

Russian troops are on standby? That’s an incredible development if true?
They back Assad but that’s pretty extreme. I’d expect Iran to send in troops before Russia.

Aircraft carrier? What will they do with that? LOL


12 posted on 02/05/2012 8:50:19 AM PST by romanesq (For George Soros so loved the world, he gave us Obama)
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To: sheik yerbouty

Shi’ites with some differences. Each sect of Islam sees every other sect as heretical; even other practitioners of the same sect don’t like or get along with each other. And of course, there’s a broad range of views about this, such as:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2842603/posts?page=4#4


13 posted on 02/05/2012 9:09:07 AM PST by SunkenCiv (FReep this FReepathon!)
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To: ModelBreaker

It’s just some water carrying for Zero and his regime, expect more of it throughout the campaign season. :’)


14 posted on 02/05/2012 9:10:48 AM PST by SunkenCiv (FReep this FReepathon!)
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Obama bows down to Saudi King | American Thinker | April 02, 2009 | Clarice Feldman | Posted on 04/02/2009 8:19:47 AM PDT by rdb3
Obama bows down to Saudi King | American Thinker | April 02, 2009 | Clarice Feldman | Posted on 04/02/2009 8:19:47 AM PDT by rdb3

15 posted on 02/05/2012 9:11:04 AM PST by SunkenCiv (FReep this FReepathon!)
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To: himno hero

Doesn’t look like Assad is backing down.


16 posted on 02/05/2012 9:35:16 AM PST by romanesq (For George Soros so loved the world, he gave us Obama)
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To: romanesq

Aircraft carrier? What will they do with that?

Probably helping build their naval base at Tantros. Just being their gives Syria and Iran ELINT, radar, and sat photos of Israel and US moves in the region, as well as aircover against any Israel move toward Iran.

Spetnaz troops (aks Rapid Reaction Troops) will move in, if Syria too badly threatened by Arab supported uprising.

Iranian agents from Qods brigades have been in Syria for some time.

As someone said, “This ain’t no game of beanbag.”

One wrong or misunderstood move and the whole thing will go hot ...


17 posted on 02/05/2012 2:28:10 PM PST by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now it is your turn ...)
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To: SunkenCiv

Actually I meant sh-titles as in something excremental. The Syrian regime is Alawite but most Syrians are Sunnis and a handful of Christians under siege..


18 posted on 02/06/2012 10:59:40 PM PST by sheik yerbouty ( Make America and the world a jihad free zone!)
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