Skip to comments.How Mitt Could Be Beat
Posted on 02/08/2012 8:25:55 AM PST by Lakeshark
Monday night, I sat looking at the GOP primary schedule and, considering Mitt Romney's enormous fundraising advantage, was filled with a sense of foreboding. After Newt Gingrich's meltdown in Nevada, the prospects for the conservative "Anybody But Romney" opposition looked grim indeed.
Rick Santorum's 3-for-3 hat-trick Tuesday night, however, revives the glimmer of a possibility that Romney can still be beat. But it will nevertheless be a difficult challenge and, in the short term, will require at least tacit cooperation between the Santorum and Gingrich campaigns.
Some such arrangement would seem to offer the best hope of stopping Romney, if the conservative rivals Gingrich and Santorum are really serious about stopping Romney at all costs. The two conservatives would have to be willing to postpone until after Super Tuesday a showdown between themselves, knowing that neither of them has a good chance at the nomination unless -- by a modicum of tactical cooperation in the near term -- they can deliver enough defeats to Romney to stop him from building an insuperable early lead in the delegate count.
This kind of cooperation between two candidates in the GOP nomination contest would be unprecedented, but would simply replicate how the campaign has played out accidentally so far: Santorum upset Romney in Iowa and then, after Romney won New Hampshire, Gingrich won South Carolina, depriving Romney of a snowballing "inevitability" momentum. After two more Romney wins in Florida and Nevada, which threatened another "inevitability" snowball, Santorum came back to score big Tuesday in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado. What the Santorum-Gingrich tag-team has so far achieved against Romney in sequential contests, they must now attempt to repeat in simultaneous contests.
(Excerpt) Read more at spectator.org ...
Mitt is a disaster for the GOP, he has to be stopped.
I agree with you. I think our best hope is for the “tag team” to throw this into a brokered Convention.
Can’t argue with anything you just said. Although I can say the only thing we can do is vote for the candidate we feel is best suited to fix this country. Then... if mitt wins... just vote for congressional seats in the general and write-in someone conservative for POTUS :D
Is the writer of the opinion piece you posted, Robert McCain, one of “those” McCains?
If they work together we could have "8+8".
Eight years of Newt as president followed by eight years of Santorum....Sixteen years of a conservative in the WH should turn the country around.
I'm not sure who is stronger in Arizona - but I think that will be secondary for Santorum, though he'll be there for the debate. I would guess Newt will focus his energy there.
Arizona is a tough state as it has a fair number of moderates and a strong minority of Mormons.
I personally think Santorum has the best chance against Romney here in Michigan. Hopefully he’ll get up here after a couple days rest and start mingling with the folks.
The lds-org denies that Jesus is the Creator, that everything was created THROUGH Him, BY Him and FOR Him.
They deny that Jesus created even the angels out of nothing.
They do NOT teach the truth about Jesus.
Freeper impimp has also championed the collaborative alliance idea, and I think it makes a lot of sense. It does require a departure from the conventional campaign mentality, but if Santorum and Gingrich can’t do that - are they really the right men for the job? BY working together they would force Romney to defend himself on two fronts at once, and by not sniping at each other but instead focusing on Obama and “Obama-lite” the campaign would have a more positive feel for conservatives and others who are afraid of Romney but maybe aren’t convinced who is the best “non-Romney” at this point.
There are no perfect candidates. What we need is the best conservative who can beat Obama.
....the glimmer of a possibility that Romney can still be beat. But it will nevertheless be a difficult challenge.....
Nah; it will not be difficult; Obozo will take him out easily in November.
Romney wasn't really challenged in Michigan in 2008. I think McCain went there and told them all their jobs were gone and never coming back and Romney promised everyone a job in the auto industry.
If by “tag team” you guys mean one for Prez and the other for VP...... that would be a disastrous ticket. We need Allen West or Marco Rubio in the second spot because whoever carries FL will move into the White House. I could live with either Rick or Newt in the top spot on the ticket but neither of them in the VP spot. No, no, no!!!
I read this today and thought it timely.
We dont need to see the way if were following the One who is the Way.
Strength for the journey, 2/8/2012
It’s possible that strategy has already been employed- Newt appeared only 1 time in Colorado and Mn- ran no ads- and has not said anything negative about Rick.
Some here on FR were saying Santorum was the best conservative in the race...but there was some sort of embrace of Newt because he was vicious in attacking the media.
Arizona is a tough state as it has a fair number of moderates and a strong minority of Mormons.
Colorado has a lot of Mormons also. In ‘08 Mitt won CO with 61 percent of the vote. Last night he lost with a total percentage in the 30s. Hell, maybe even Mormons are tired of all the negativity and in-fighting between Newt and Mittens.
One thing I make sure to remind people of is that Romney takes us for granted and really doesn’t bother to campaign here. When he won the straw poll he went to Mackinaw island and stepped right over us little people on his way to the cash register.
I personally believe the midwest is the key to this election. We’ve been the most active political fault zone over the last year or two and that can work to our advantage.
I’m going to encourage my congressman (Tim Walberg) to endorse Rick Santorum before the primary and I hope other Michiganders will do the same.
The problem is that there is no tag team. We are dealing with egomaniacs here with no regard for conservative principles. They are beating each other up. Im embarrassed for this crew. We can’t come up with anyone better than this? Really?? Im sure there’s some city counselman somewhere out there that would be better than this lot..
I think Santorum could win this if Newt dropped out. I don’t think Newt could beat Romney if Santorum dropped out. Newt has hit a wall with Married women and has too much baggage. Santorum can win this and Newt chould put his Ego away and do the right thing.
Santorum and Gingrich really can’t form an alliance because they have very different political philosophies. Santorum is Romney lite - he’s a GOP establishment guy who is different from Romney only in his social conservatism, and in being a dweeby, Jimmy Carter type of person rather than a crazy eyed Mormon missionary type. He’s not likeable, but he’s sure a lot more likeable than Romney, who has absolutely distinguished himself in this campaign by being vicious, petty, deceitful - and having that expressionless, synthetic but at the same time aggressive Mormon-missionary face that really turns people off.
Since Romney and Santorum share a lot of positions and both of them have launched personal attacks on Gingrich, I’d say that voters weren’t going for ideas but for the lesser of two evils. Romney was expected to win, thus indicating a large percentage of middle of the road, semi-RINO voters, and Gingrich wasn’t even on the ballot in the only real primary, so the voters that Romney was courting clearly indicated that he is so unpleasant that they too will pick anybody but him.
I hope GOP Central gets the message.
To the headline: (I wanted to say bat but that’s going to far) so I will say instead, with dirty underwear.
...there was some sort of embrace of Newt because he was vicious in attacking the media.
But, you can only ride that ol’ horse so far. Newt has been flat since South Carolina.
Gingrich, for all of "pluses" (and there are many) is not electable for many reasons, most important of which (I'm sad to say) is appearance. Too many voters will vote for Obama's car-salesman smile over Gingrich's dissolute slob optics. (Yes, things should be different.)
Mister Gingrich's numerous crazy Ivans while in the Congress and while in front of a camera would provide endless fodder for the billion dollars of campaign $$$ that Obama has extracted from his fellow travelers. The easiest job in the world, my FRiends, would be to write anti-Newt ad copy. There is nobody Newt G can blame for this, he chose to say the things he said, to cast the votes he voted, and to make the "family" decisions he made. Frankly, Gingrich's toxicity is his own doing.
Santorum keeps looking more and more like a winner, and our best possible candidate (from among the group of 4 remaining.)
Newt and his people have been calling for Santorum to drop out and support Newt. Well, Santorum has won 4 State contests and Newt has won 1. (Mittens has won 2). So, someone tell me again who should drop out.
Santorum has now won more states than Mitt & Newt. It is time for Newt to drop out, and clear path for Santorum. One on one, Rick will defeat Mitt. If both stay in (Newt & Rick) then advantage goes to Mitt, since he collects proportional delegates in each contest.
“What the Santorum-Gingrich tag-team has so far achieved against Romney in sequential contests, they must now attempt to repeat in simultaneous contests.”
The people seem to be doing this on their own. It may not take collaberation between the campaigns.
CHeck out Trisha Erickson’s book: CAN MITT ROMNEY SERVE TWO MASTERS?
Trisha’ father was a bishop just like ROmney. She has much inside information on the subject. Her credentials are outstanding. has spoken on several local radio stations, but has not hit MSM yet.
They are available in paper back from Amazon. You may want to order more than one to share.
If GOP doesn’t vet this issue now. You can bet that Axelrod will in the fall if Romney gets the nomination.
You may be interested in this article- Romneys New Two-Front War http://race42012.com/2012/02/08/romneys-new-two-front-war/
Gingrich and Santorum have already figured this out. They are both better off if they both stay. Two targets for Romney makes it much harder for him to repeat what he did in Iowa and Florida to Newt. Plus, the more Romney stays negative the harder it becomes for him to be the nominee.
You keep repeating this tired, backhanded attack on Santorum and again I ask - and you seem unable to answer:
Santorum & Gingrich were united in favor of the Balanced Budget Amendment that nearly passed.
Santorum & Gingrich were united in favor of the Medicare Part D prescription drug entitlement - Santorum later said it was a mistake.
Santorum & Gingrich were united in favor of earmark use as the duty of Congress to allocate government spending. (Gingrich promoted earmark usage as a way to help Republicans get reelected.)
Santorum & Gingrich are promoting radical tax reductions & reforms as a key part of their platforms.
They have many of the same triumphs and missteps. Why do you insist on demonizing Santorum?
That’s my plan, ld.
Speaking of war...
Heres Romney in a 2008 debate...
The job description of a CIC from a businessman’s point of view...
Santorum is Romney lite
This has to be the dumbest statement I have ever seen on Free Republic. Sorry your candidate can’t gain any traction and won only one state but to start spreading insane statements is not a good way to show maturity.
Ever since Michelle Bachmann dropped out I have been saying that Santorum was the only one left worth voting for. I believe that Newt and Paul are the only two in the campaign that never had a chance to win against Obama.
Unfortunately Rick Santorum, while better than Romney is not near the candidate Michelle Bachman was as far as conservative principles. Rick voting against right to work laws is an example of his lack of conservative principles, but you have to work with what you have.
I really think that Santorum has a good chance at beating Romney. He doesn’t need any help from Newt Gingrich, except I think if Newt were to drop out now that Rick could possibly win every primary from here on. With Newt taking 10 or 15% of the votes away from Santorum it allows Mitt Romney to get his 35 or 40% to be at the top.
I realize that it looks like Newt is in it just to hurt Romney, I don’t believe that is true. Newt is in it for Newt and will be just as hard on Santorum as he is on Mitt Romney when he realizes that Santorum will take it away from him.
There is a lot to really like about Newt, I sure love the way he handles the press but his emotions too often get the best of him. I don’t think he could ever win an election against Obama, sad!
I think that Rick Santorum or Mitt Romney could easily win against the “O”. If Mitt Romney was what he says he is in his political speeches then he might be a really good president but alas he has never governed from the right, and I know of nothing to make me believe that he would in the future.
Rick Santorum has a pretty good voting record, he has definitely been on the right side of the abortion issue. Mitt Romney, although he says he is NOW on the right side of the abortion issue, talk is cheap.
Which ever candidate wins, they need to emphasize that abortion has killed 40 milion black kids. I think that is the only way to get the black vote. If you take nearly any percentage of the black vote away from the Democrats you will win the election. Nobody is willing to go after the black vote because they think Democrats is all blacks know and trust, but I think with the abortion issue it is doable.
"Motor City hospitality dictates a Michigan message to Mitt that our struggling families, entrepreneurs and workers can't afford policies that make Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama less than rivals, and more like running mates." Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0611/56527.html#ixzz1loNQKOSF
Makes sense to me, kind of the political equivalent of the small team Daytona 500 strategy. If you don’t have the advantages of being on a big team, you hook up with a car from another small team as a drafting partner and become de-facto teammates for the race. You work together until the end of the race - then it’s every man for himself.
That’s how the Wood Bros. car won the race last year against all the cars from big teams like Hendricks.
So, in my mind, the state-by-state scoreboard reads:
Santorum: 4 states (IA, MN, MO, CO)
Romney: 3 states (NH, FL, NV)
Gingrich: 1 state (SC)
So, I’m curious why so many people think Romney is inevitable and why, if he isn’t, then Gingrich has to be the choice.
I reject that thinking. All four of the remaining candidates are seriously flawed and I’ll vote for whichever is the nominee, but I believe Santorum best reflects my values of the four left.
You may very well be right, if he continues to poll well, I will vote for him instead of Newt, who I prefer just a little bit (experience of being a change agent, ability to describe the alternative vision of conservatism).
Let's confer a couple of days before the primary, maybe start a Michigan based thread for the primary as well.
The way it looks I would say that Rick is lining himself up more for Romney’s V.P. Rick has been attacking Newt, a lot. I will vote for Rick if he is my only shot. I am pretty sure he has no shot at beating Romney, and less than that to best Obama. Newt has the political skill and crisma to do it. But people have to realize they are electing a president not interviewing for a potential mate or friend.
Mitt needs right at 49% of the remaining delegates to win outright on the first ballot at the convention.
He has 108 and needs 1036 to go.
The Winner Takes All States that he will likely win are:
California - 172
New York - 95
New Jersey - 50
Utah - 40
Connecticut - 28
Rhode Island - 19
Delaware - 17
That is only 421. If he doesn’t win Pennsylvania (72), Oregon (28) and Arizona (29), then he will be in a tough situation as most of the rest of the contests are either proportional or in Winner Takes All States where he trails badly.
This looks like it goes to a brokered Convention!
Like your analysis.
Mitty makes me cringe.
Newtie makes my wife cringe.
We’d both vote for Rick in a heartbeat.
The establishment will be screaming for Newt or Rick to get out before then because they see the writing on the wall..
And even those are not slam dunks. They are generally far in the future, and while liberal in general elections may not be as bad in the GOP primary.
FYI, it appears Rhode Island and NY are proportional? NY if the winner does not hit 50%.
Gingrich currently has almost twice as many popular votes as Santorum. He was responsible for a MASSIVE increase in turnout in South Carolina, something like 35% when no other state went up more than a couple points. When Newt is ON, there is no better and more electable candidate. What he did in South Carolina seems like it was the same thing he did in 1994 when he swept the House.
I think he was thrown off his game in Florida by Mitt’s dishonest attacks, but could easily find his footing again on Super Tuesday.
An inexperienced player like Rubio or West would be a TERRIBLE V.P. pick for Santorum. Santorum is like G.W. Bush and needs SERIOUS GRAVITAS and big brains on his V.P. side. There’s almost no one else but Newt that fits the bill. Conservatives ought to want a real supply-side hard-liner like Newt there to keep Rick from straying into the Bush low tax/big spending mode.
I still have trouble seeing why Romney has such a big advantage supposedly. Of Gallup’s 24 most conservative states, only ONE has voted so far, South Carolina. Half of the delegates come from those states and about a quarter from moderate, a quarter from liberal. Mitt only has the liberal states locked up at the moment.
The strategy in this article is questionable, because you have to think that one state’s voters will be thinking much differently from another state’s on the same day, even though they’re all Republicans. The Santorum 3-state sweep suggests that might not happen, although he did win Colorado by a much smaller margin. Rick and Newt seem to appeal to the same base so it seems like the same one of the two will be preferred in every state on the same day based on whatever the national trend is.