Skip to comments.Why has GOP turnout taken a dive? (MO down massive 57%)
Posted on 02/08/2012 12:04:30 PM PST by red flanker
Beneath Rick Santorum's stunning three-state sweep on Tuesday stands another stubborn sign of dissatisfaction with the status quo: Republican turnout is down.
I'm talking embarrassingly, disturbingly, hey-don't-you-know-it's-an-election-year bad. It is a sign of a serious enthusiasm gap among the rank and file, and a particularly bad omen for Mitt Romney and the GOP in the general election.
Here's the tale of the tape, state by state, beginning with Tuesday night: Minnesota had just more than 47,000 people turn out for its caucuses this year -- four years ago it was nearly 63,000 -- and Romney came in first, not a distant third as he did Tuesday night. In Colorado, more than 70,000 people turned out for its caucus in 2008 -- but in 2012 it was 65,000. And Missouri -- even making a generous discount for the fact that this was an entirely symbolic contest -- had 232,000 people turn out, less than half the number who did four years ago.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
The only exception is the showing of Newt Gingrich in both his dramatic win in South Carolina and then in his winning counties in Florida. Newt inspires people to turn out in record numbers compared to 2008, while Santorum and Romney are two dimensional politicians by comparison.
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I see the POTUS election really only a tossup in 3 states Ohio, Penna, and Florida.
The other ones are already decided or too small to really matter.
None of the candidates are real likeable.
If, as it looks now, Speaker Gingrich doesn’t garner the GOP nomination, we must draft, nominate and elect Governor Sarah Palin president in the most crushing tidal wave of enthusiastic good judgment ever seen in the history of this nation. With that one bold move we will accomplish the dual goals of seeing America led by the greatest natural born leader in our generation, even as we witness the final implosion and last agonized shrieks of our endlessly lying extreme left loonies. Their entire movement, from the fabricated attacks on President Bush beginning with Blood For Oil to the crammed-down-our-gullets lies of Obamacare and the Shovel Ready Stimulus, have been nothing but one vile deceit heaped upon another. Such an absolute inability to deal in the truth or to face the facts of our situation and its solutions only proves that there is simply no place at the grown-ups table for these diseased sputa. Good riddance to rubes, hippies and bad rubbish. Time to usher in the American Renaissance, carried in on the invigoratingly freshening breeze of President Sarah Palin.
Here's why the GOP turnout has taken such a dive...
you do know newt was on ballot in iowa,new hampshire,colorado,minnesota where he was up by 20 a few weeks ago and got only 10 percent,nevada...
ya newt inspires.....south carolina was more a f u to abc than anything
Oh, please! It was a non-binding primary.
If a real conservative is the republican nominee, turnout will be astronomical.
Apparently not yesterday, where he pulled 10-15%.
There's plenty of enthusiasm for Santorum on FR and in Missouri / Minnesota / Colorado. All those people came out to vote for a candidate they had been told couldn't win and should drop out.
Missouri is an odd case since this vote was non-binding.
But in general, the more people think Romney is inevitable, the less they will come out to vote - but now that he's been proven beatable, we should see higher turnout numbers ahead.
It’s a terrible crop of candidates and everybody knows it. I’m not supporting Newt because I like him; it’s just that I think he’s the best of the worst. I think many others feel the same way.
Willard Romney the open socialist...I think I’ll stop there.
Newt talks a good game, but he has a checkered past.
Santorum is a stale, uninspiring fiscal liberal. He’s also squishy on SOPA, one of the few issues that the left and right united against.
Wrong Paul and his personality cult need to be institutionalized.
A lot of Newt voters stayed home.
This is an indicator of a blowout win for Obama since neither Romney or Santorum can’t even inspire GOP voters and many stay home.”
But I think there is another possibility. While it is true that the GOP primary voters are not overly excited about any of these 3 guys, that doesn’t mean that they are not excited about beating obama. I can totally see the logic of sitting out of the primary and then coming back in November to beat obama. Sort of an “I don’t care who the nominee is, I am going to vote for him”.
I do think that could be going on here.
Negative campaigns breed negative sentiment leading to negative turnout leading to a LOSS.
Sounds like a plan!
Where’s RNC this year?
It’s obvious. The GOP is not happy about any of this. The candidates were not what the base wanted to see
Because the conservative options for Obama’s opposition suck, that’s why. We do not have to coalesce around ‘the only one who can beat Obama’ now, but we must eventually.
I am not ready to pick/select now, despite others’ plaint to do so NOW. Let’s wait 2-4 months and see what shakes out. When the smoke clears, we can ‘coalesce’....
Why has GOP turnout taken a dive?
Probably because at least that many have given up on the Republican party. In 2010, lots of us out here busted our butts to elect conservatives to Congress only to see the same old same old again. Two trillion dollars later, some of us are saying, “is this all there is”?
Sorry, but we do not trust the Republicans any more than we trust the Democrats. Shit by any name is still shit.
Because those right wingers are really remaining in the field huh? Santorum is another big government social conservative like Bush, Romney is far left, and Newt with respect adjusts his principles for self advancement. Any wonder conservatives are unenthused...even if they partially brought it on themselves with their own votes. Tack on the Republicans elected to change Washington completely betraying the people who put them there the last couple years and no one in DC has a right to expect us to be happy about giving them more power.
Tampa, Florida, I believe.
Exactly!!! It is a familiar pattern by now. Rominey can't win on ideas so he uses his super PAC’s to go nuclear negative on whoever happens to be taking his thunder away. The result is suppressed voter turnout. Yippeee, Mittens regains his top dog status but each and every time he loses more and more enthusiasm for his campaign. A Pyrrhic victory if there ever was one.
I believe Newt also inspired massive increases in turnout in 1994 when Repubs retook the House. When he’s “on” there’s no one better. SC had 35% increase, all the others went down or had low single digit increases. His problem is when he is badly outspent and can’t get his message out, and a couple “off” debate performances in Florida. I think he’s going to get back on his game but he needs to find a way to defend himself on the cheap. In the general election he might be outspent, but not by the massive ratio he’s facing now, so I don’t think it’ll be a problem.
My take is that turnout is down because the base has been told that Romney is our candidate whether we like it or not and the GOP-E will see to it that he gets the nomination no matter what it takes. So why bother?
My hunch is that when it becomes clear to one and all that Romney is vulnerable, turnout will exceed all expectations as we work to get a better candidate nominated.
The convention ought to be very interesting.
That's the crux of it right there. After months of GOP candidates shredding each other 24/7 while watching 0bama's poll numbers rise with each passing day, along with the GOP estabs pushing the "let's-lose-gracefully-by-nominating-Romney" tact, why would anyone have any degree of excitement? The only ones excited at this point are the dems, as they can now envision reaching their holy grail of America's destruction.
I just early voted for Newt here in Ohio. I felt good about it. I’ll vote for our nominee regardless of who it is though as I seriously do not want to be listening to my liberal family gloating at the Thanksgiving table next year.
I LOVE A LOW VOTER TURN-OUT. Know why? Because that means that the uninformed, uninterested and uncaring stayed home and that’s a good thing because they don’t know s**t from shinola about what’s going on. GOOD!!! I don’t care if just 10,000 people vote.... Low voter turn-out, as a rule, benefits Conservative candidates.
HELL YEAH; ALL DUMMIES STAY FRIGGIN’ HOME!!!
Wrong, and then wrong, people could just as well have stayed home because they were happy with either one.
“Sarah Palin NOT running in 2012”
I just tweeted this and appealed to Gov. Palin to run. Otherwise, we conservatives are SCREWED.
The reason turnout has taken a dive is because — I hate to say it — all of the remaining candidates have serious flaws. Romney, as we all know, is a flip-flopping RINO. Newt is a loose cannon with a vindictive streak who has some ideas that easily could be categorized as Big Government. And Rick is a good social conservative who fully supported Bush’s “Compassionate Conservatism” and was the GOP’s Senate liason with the lobbying community. No amount of whitewash is going to change any of that and it turns people off.
To be fair, we didn’t get that much new blood in there. Not to mention we don’t have the Senate. The House has passed bill after bill that has been shelved by Reid. Quitting the fight now is giving up in the 2nd quarter.
The only reason it was held was because the corrupt Democrat SOS would not let them cancel it because it would have saved the Republican party a couple of million bucks.
(How long will the “powers-that-be” wait to have a “conversation” with Bishop Willard??)
“I just early voted for Newt here in Ohio.”
Same here in AZ for the 3 voters in my family.
the good news is nobody is likely to be all that close to sewing this up and maybe we can get someone that can excite the crowd in the picture.
None of the candidates is exciting the base with the exception of Newt in SC with those debate performances. It will interesting to watch whether Santorum can fire up the voters. He better work on his delivery if he wants to win.
Missouri had zero delegates awarded last night and whether you like them or not, none of these candidates are all that inspiring and our greatest enemy is the drive-by media and their silly and pointless debates (of which we’ve had about 10,000 at this point).
I hope your not implying that should people should "coalesce" around a candidate solely because he is a Republican? We've seen where that path leads...Dole, Bush Sr., McLame. Either the GOP pulls their head/s of their nether regions, or I believe there will be a lot of conversatives who will "abstain" from casting a vote for President.
People are sick and tired of these endless debates every other day that amount to nothing more than lame attempts at ratings for channels nobody even watches.
From your keyboard to God’s ears. Oh my soul hovers between the hope you have written and the darkness of despair for this country.
Granted, Gov. Palin prayed God for direction and she gave us the answer Oct. 5th. But will God have mercy on us? There is NO ONE ELSE. Could it be that God has seen the deepening darkness gathering about us and plans to move Palin at just the right time?
What must be going on in Gov. Palin’s mind these days?
I agree withyou, I would crawl a mile through broken glass to vote against Obama.
It isn’t hardly worth walking any farther than the toilet to vote in a republican primary when the RINO’s have already decided to have Mitt.
I see the POTUS election really only a tossup in 3 states Ohio, Penna, and Florida.
You are absolutely right my friend. And, whoever wins 2 of those 3 States will occupy the White House from 2013 to 2017. That’s why we MUST have Marco Rubio or Allen West on the ticket in the VP spot to help carry FL. So, we have Santorum from PA and Rubio or Allen from Florida.....
YEP, WE’RE GOOD TO GO.
You’re gonna have to get beyond the fact Palin ain’t interested in running for president this year, and who can blame her? She’s been through this futile media anal exam once before.
“The GOP is not happy about any of this. The candidates were not what the base wanted to see”
The “GOP” [establishment] and “the base” do not share the same interests, values, or politcal goals, nor do they support the same candidates.
We are seeing the results of that schism as the primary season unfolds.
It doesn’t look that great for November. Hope my pessimism is proven wrong .
How many of those voters will be Democrat crossovers in "open" primaries trying to pick who they want to run against?
Ref. you Post #5: You forgot to mention the loss of Religious Freedom. Today the Catholic Church is under assault by the Obama White House and the Department of HHS. What church or denomination will be next?
Working hard behind the scenes to reelect obama.