Skip to comments.GOP presidential race could turn into a regional delegate battle (Good primary summary)
Posted on 02/08/2012 8:37:20 PM PST by VinL
Rick Santorums trio of victories ...is shifting the Republican presidential contest into a state-by-state fight for delegates that could last much longer than initially anticipated.
The battle appears to be breaking down along regional lines, with Santorum gaining momentum in the Midwest, Newt Gingrich resonating in the South and Mitt Romney faring best in the Northeast and elsewhere...
For now, all four candidates are on a hunt for delegates, each with an incentive to stay in through the next several contests. Gingrich and Ron Paul were already pledging to stay in the race for the long haul, and both have shown an ability to win delegates. While Santorums campaign had been struggling, he now appears to be in contention for at least the next month, including Super Tuesday on March 6...
In addition, delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis in most of the early states as opposed to on a winner-take-all basis which means several candidates can earn delegates in each state, which will in turn make it harder for any single candidate to build a big delegate lead...
Momentum so far has been elusive. Few candidates have gotten a bounce from one contest to the next. That makes it harder to predict the future outcomes based on past results.
I think the results leave us with a scattered field, said Republican National Committeeman for Tennessee John Ryder. We are past the battle of annihilation. Nobody has been knocked out. All four remaining candidates have the ability to raise money and continue their fight. (read more)
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
In NY, Paladinophiles will not vote for Mitt.
I am not so sure this article is very accurate.
They place the Tx primary in Apr while a date still hasn’t been set due to the redistricting fiasco.
The earliest I have heard since that debate started is May 6.
The South won't vote for Romney.
We would rather vote for a Scientologist than Romney! He's a fake ("where's the beef?")!
“They place the Tx primary in Apr while a date still hasnt been set due to the redistricting fiasco.”
The redistricting “fiasco” is not a fiasco. It is proceeding almost exactly as planned by the Federal Government.
And not two weeks ago the Pundit Class was telling us the next 30 days would be a cakewalk for Romney...
I’m not sure they are right about Gingrich and the south. The latest North Carolina poll had Romney tied with Gingrich, and Santorum only 10 points down.
I’ve noticed that especially the Gingrich folks have started to embrace this “regional strategy” “brokered convention” meme, since Santorum has surged and won the last three contests. Oddly, before that, it was all “drop out for the good of the country”, now it’s “lets all get along and split the delegates”.
“We would rather vote for a Scientologist than Romney!”
Wow. I’ve known a lot of Scientologists and a lot of Mormans. Mormans are usually pretty normal people. Most Scientologists I have met are pretty weird.
By that time it will be permissible for Texas to have a winner-take-all primary. It could be the knockout punch.
What? Is Greta now running? :-)
Ain’t that the truth! What’s going on with Greta and her Church of Scientology?
Damn, why does that amaze and shock me?????
Could we just excise the NE from the uniion and be done with them? I know there are good people living there, but this domination of our country's politics by the NE has got to stop.
That is true, after Apr 1 its winner take all in the states.
“Im not sure they are right about Gingrich and the south. The latest North Carolina poll had Romney tied with Gingrich, and Santorum only 10 points down.”
You might have a point there. I think with Santorum grabbing momentum and headlines, Newt runs the risk of being pushed out of the spotlight until Super Tuesday. That was a losing strategy for Guliani in 2008 when he decided to skip the first 3 contests and wait for Florida.
I also think consolidation around Santorum is more likely than around Newt. Newt has been beaten up so badly by Romney and his surrogates, and a lot of Santorum backers would not go to Newt because of either reservations about his moral failings or questions about his electability with all his baggage. On the other hand, MO yesterday was a pretty good picture of what a contest might look like without Newt on the ballot.
Granted, after Romney’s slime machine pours millions into a character assassination against Santorum, the results might be closer. But I think Rick showed he can take on Romney head to head in a bellweather state that is known to be very representative of the country at large. Still, those results are pretty impressive, and they may indicate that Santorum might be the non-Romney most likely to consolidate the conservative base.
Did the Scientologists get an exemption from ObamaCare..?
Maybe it's just me, but watching her creeps me out knowing she's in the weird cult of L. Ron Hubbard. Greta Van Susteren is pretty popular with some of the movers and shakers here on Free Republic so perhaps I just better hop aboard the bandwagon with the rest of her fans.
It would be interesting to have her hook up her guests to one of these, though. Might be as much fun as Frank Luntz's dials:
I think it is optional winner-take-all after April 1. Prior to April 1, a state gets hit with a 50% penalty for having a winner-take all primary. At least that's how my RNC Committeeman, Bill Crocker, explained it. Supposedly the TX GOP is looking at changing the delegate allocation rules to take advantage of the timing. If the DemocRATS hadn't challenged the redistricting, we wouldn't have the possibility of a winner-take-all primary this year.
Rick won Iowa, and lost 4 in a row. Newt SC,and none since. Romney Fla and Nv- and now he fell flat. Perhaps Rick will break the trend. I wish your candidate luck.
“The South won’t vote for Romney.”
When did Florida secede from the South?
I’m not settled yet. I’m still a fan of the “let them compete” school, like Sarah Palin — drag out the process.
I’m just tweaking those who argued against me a couple of weeks ago insisting that Santorum had to quit.
And I wonder, looking back, what they think would have happened if Santorum had dropped out right after South Carolina, before the two bad Gingrich debate performances.
For example, Santorum had two good debates, landing solid attacks on Romney, and keeping him off-balance. GIngrich did poorly, the 1st debate he claimed because people couldn’t cheer, and the 2nd because Romney wouldn’t tell the truth.
But if Santorum hadn’t been there to knock Romney and “win” the debates, Romney would have been considered the winner.
And if Santorum hadn’t been in Florida, Romney would have taken more than 50% of the vote.
And if Santorum wasn’t in Colorado, Romney would have easily had 50%. Now, maybe Paul would have beat Romney in Missouri. But Romney would likely have won Minnesota as well.
And we’d be hearing about how Romney had overcome the problems of South Carolina, having won every contest since except the “non-binding primary” in Missouri.
I think how things turned out was much better than what they wanted, when Santorum was a stalking horse for Romney and should get out before he embarrased us all and gave Romney the win.
“When did Florida secede from the South?”
When it became the end of the line for old Yankees and the start of an opportunity for young Latins.
You're not from the South, are you?
North Florida and the Panhandle are Southern...and they voted for Gingrich.
Yeah...but give Scientology another century and it will have all the credibility of the LDS!;-)
Im just tweaking those who argued against me a couple of weeks ago insisting that Santorum had to quit
Well, just for the record, I wasn’t one arguing against you.
I support Newt only for 1 reason- that notwithstanding his faults, he did mastermind the takeover of the house and did change DC with the Contract for America. As you know, in 2013, we have to immediately reverse the socialism- if not, it will become embedded with well over 50% receiving some “entitlement” from the fed gov’t. Thereafter, the only way that will change is when the country hits the wall.
I am sincerely convinced that Newt is the only one with the mindset and temperament to actually confront the issue— that’s simply his nature. Few doubt that- which is why we see the DC interests so universally opposed to him.
AS to Rick dropping out. If he had done so after Fla, Newt may have won Co and certainly Mn. - Perry, Rick, Sarah Cain would have coalesced around him- But, it’s conjecture at this point. It may not have happened that way.
Finally, I believe that Newt’s now talking brokered convention because that likely seems the current reality to him. If Rick catches fire and continues to win states, then Newt should support him. But, if the up and down trend continues, then no one will amass sufficient delegates- in which case, an alliance between Rick and Newt would serve to counter the considerable force of the GOP-E at the convention.
Rick’s direct challenge to Mitt in Mich may be make or break—if Rick wins, he’ll be formidable— If Romney pours all the money into the pot and damages Rick as Romney did Newt in Fla— the dynamic changes again.