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Path to a Brokered GOP Convention Emerges
Real Clear Politics ^ | 2/9/12 | Sean Trende

Posted on 02/09/2012 6:01:07 AM PST by Lakeshark

But now we have to consider that Santorum has won Iowa and Minnesota in the Midwest, and won Colorado largely on the strength of his showing in eastern Colorado (which is basically the Great Plains). He also won Missouri -- which is culturally more southern than Midwestern -- but Gingrich wasn’t on the ballot there. For now at least, he is the "anti-Romney" in the Midwest.

If this split continues -- Romney in the West and Northeast, Gingrich in the South, and Santorum in the Midwest -- we could easily find ourselves in a scenario where no candidate crosses the 1,144-delegate threshold by the time voting ends. Consider this: Right now, Romney barely has a majority of the delegates. If Gingrich successfully contests the winner-takes-all allocation in the Florida primary (based on the RNC’s rule against such a format before April), no one would have a majority of the delegates as of today.
The key is that neither Gingrich nor Santorum can begin to do so well that the other drops out. Both must remain effectively regional candidates. If Gingrich’s support collapses in the South, it might leave an opening there for Santorum. We’ve seen some potential evidence of this, as Gingrich’s support in Gallup’s tracking poll is down about seven points since the Florida primary (although it isn’t down in the wake of Santorum’s wins Tuesday night). If that were to occur, we would be back to a two-person race.
The path to this outcome is still a very narrow, precarious one. But for the first time, I can see it.

(Excerpt) Read more at ...

TOPICS: Editorial; Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: brokeredconvention; newt; newt4romney; newtgetout; romney; santorum
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To: MissMagnolia

Lots of folks in VA, given only two choices on the primary ballot (Romney or Paul) are voting Paul.

41 posted on 02/09/2012 9:13:52 AM PST by no dems (I'm more concerned with America's future than I am Newt's past.)
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"…jumping off into the Ocean on the “most perfect and correct” side of the ship as it slips beneath the surface."
Brilliant analogy my FRiend!
42 posted on 02/09/2012 9:15:46 AM PST by bksanders (Old Gets Older the Older I Get)
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To: Lazamataz; joe fonebone

Didn’t Rudy McRomney run last time?

43 posted on 02/09/2012 9:17:38 AM PST by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: no dems
Re a Brokered Convention:

The one Republican I can think of who everyone likes (sad state of affairs) is Paul Ryan.

Mitch Daniels would also be a good choice, though perhaps not with that 'wow' factor (putting it mildly). The other governor choice is, of course, the 2nd universally popular Republican (I have a bad memory): Scott Walker.

44 posted on 02/09/2012 9:20:47 AM PST by RygelXVI
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To: MissMagnolia
Lots of folks in VA, given only two choices on the primary ballot (Romney or Paul) are voting Paul.

That is what has to happen. I hope people vote for not romney which in Virginia happens to be paul.

Delegates are Proportional

45 posted on 02/09/2012 9:29:51 AM PST by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: CPT Clay

Statewide: if winner receives a majority Winner-Take-All Primary otherwise Proportional Primary

46 posted on 02/09/2012 9:40:53 AM PST by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: RygelXVI
The Choices at that time are endless,

As you said, Gov Daniels or Gov Walker.

Ryan is highly regarded

Sen DeMint?
Gov McDonnell?
Alan West is my favorite. If Called, he will do it.
Of course Sarah comes to mind Anybody considered a true outsider like TJ Rodgers from silicon valley? Steve Wynn, a man who can walk the walk. General Petreus could govern. So could General McChrystal (fire the man who fired him) Brokered convention sounds good to me!!! I also like Ken Cuchinelli (sp) Virginia AG
What would be so bad with someone like Ted Nugent?

47 posted on 02/09/2012 9:45:18 AM PST by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: joe fonebone; Lazamataz
I will try and present this in a mathematical formula.............. brokered convention = party bigwigs in the back room smoking cigars = mcromney as the nominee...............

I agree with your formula I just disagree with your conclusion. The result the GOPe will dispense is Jeb Bush as a compromise to the Conservatives since Romney will have already been rejected by a majority of Conservatives. They will give us the bone of a fresh face - i.e. Jeb.

I'm not for it. I just think that's what will happen.



48 posted on 02/09/2012 10:01:03 AM PST by The Shrew (;; The Truth Shall Set You Free!)
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To: Lakeshark

Did Santorum indicate he favors romney over newt? If so a brokered convention would be a disaster.

49 posted on 02/09/2012 11:17:02 AM PST by Triple (Socialism denies people the right to the fruits of their labor, and is as abhorrent as slavery)
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To: Lakeshark
What does everyone here think about how this is shaping up?

SaaaaRAHH! Saaaa-RAH!!

Saaaaa - RAAAHHH!!!

<Roof begins to collapse, convention goes mad, Maureen Dowd swan-dives out of her New York Times pressbox to the convention floor four stories below>

That about get it?

50 posted on 02/09/2012 1:20:42 PM PST by lentulusgracchus
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To: Triple
Did Santorum indicate he favors romney over newt?

What, Rick Santorum perform a chrestomathy for Bishop Willard, the anointed of Brahmindom?

Don't think so, hoss. It was Rove and the Brahmin RiNO's and butt-pirate-publicans who screwed over Santorum bigtime in 2006 -- hell, they walked all the way across town to stab him.

Think he'll be doing them any favors now?

51 posted on 02/09/2012 1:25:27 PM PST by lentulusgracchus
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To: Lakeshark
What does everyone here think about how this is shaping up?

I can live with Paul Ryan or Scott Walker.

52 posted on 02/09/2012 4:58:24 PM PST by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: catman67
Everuyone needs to keep in mind, a "brokered convention" will be ruled by the establishment and an establishment candidate will be picked. Neither Newt nor Santorum will be anywhere near the throne. I leave it to your fervid imaginations as to what that will mean and be like.
53 posted on 02/09/2012 6:37:35 PM PST by hinckley buzzard
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

No sarcasm tag necessary. Try reading this for clearer analysis. It is from the Club for Growth.

2012 Presidential White Paper #4: Former Sen.Rick Santorum

As for Reagan, he was an honest man. IMO Santorum has feet of clay.

54 posted on 02/09/2012 9:01:15 PM PST by SatinDoll (NO FOREIGN NATIONALS AS OUR U.S.A. PRESIDENT)
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To: Lakeshark
"For many conservative Republicans, the dream outcome of the primary season is a brokered convention. Disappointed in the four remaining choices, they hope to change horses in August, and draft their preferred candidate, be it Jeb Bush, Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, or Paul Ryan."

Is this guy a writer for Conan O'Brien or Jon Stewart? Jeb Bush?! Chris Christie? Is dope really that strong nowadays?

55 posted on 02/09/2012 10:14:29 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (You can't invade the US. There'd be a rifle behind every blade of grass.~Admiral Yamamoto)
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To: Lakeshark
Brokered convention means that GOPee will get to pick their candidate such as Mitch Daniels or whoever. I am totally against a candidate who has not gone through the fire of the primaries. They won't be good enough to survive what they will be facing.

Let the games continue, and may the best man win.(It ain't Romney).

56 posted on 02/09/2012 10:36:24 PM PST by greeneyes (Moderation in defense of your country is NO virtue. Let Freedom Ring.)
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To: Lakeshark

Thanks for posting. I got a lot of good information and food for thought.

57 posted on 02/10/2012 1:11:04 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: CPT Clay

Nuge would of course be my first choice. But unlikely....

So if we get this contested convention, I think we should go with Jindal from Louisiana. He should have run, but he was up for re-election. Squeaky clean, smart, conservative...lots of great credentials. Not a great speaker, but I don’t think that would matter much in a 3 month campaign. The point is that we would come out of the convention with a competent, conservative governor as a candidate which the entire party could get behind. I think Jindal, as sort of a “surprise nominee” would stop the crap out of obama.

I guess as long as we are in the realm of fantasy, how about Jindal/Walker. My goodness. That would be a great, and winning ticket.

Until that happens, I’m for Santorum. But I do think Newt needs to stay in.

58 posted on 02/10/2012 8:19:13 AM PST by ConservativeDude
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

Santorum is a totally establishment owned puppet.

59 posted on 02/10/2012 1:12:51 PM PST by editor-surveyor (No Federal Sales Tax - No Way!)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network
Here's what hangs Ricky:

Rick Santorum’s Senate voting record:

What A Big Government Conservative Looks Like

Voted for taxpayer funding of the National Endowment for the Arts.
Voted against a 10% cut in the budget for National Endowment for the Arts.

Voted for a Schumer amendment to make the debts of pro-life demonstrators not dischargeable in bankruptcy.

Defense and Foreign Policy

Voted for the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).
Voted against requiring the President to certify that the CWC is effectively verifiable.

Voted against requiring the President to certify that that Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, North Korea, China, and all other countries determined to be state sponsors of terror have joined CWC prior to submitting the instrument of ratification.

Voted for the START II Treaty.
Voted to allow the sale of supercomputers to China.
Voted to ban anti-personnel landmines.
Voted against increasing defense spending offset by equivalent cuts in non-defense spending.
Voted to require that Federal bureaucrats get the same pay raises as uniformed military.
Voted to allow food and medicine sales to state sponsors of terror and tyrannical regimes such as Libya and Cuba.
Voted to limit the President’s authority to impose sanctions on nations for reasons of national security unless the sanctions were approved by a multilateral regime.
Voted against requiring Congressional authorization for military action in Bosnia.
Voted to give $25 million in foreign aid to North Korea.
Voted to weaken alien terrorist deportation provisions. If the Court determines that the evidence must be withheld for national security reasons, the Justice Department must still provide a summary of the evidence sufficient for the alien terrorist to mount a defense against deportation.
Voted against delaying the India Nuclear until the President certified that India had agreed to suspend military-to-military exchanges with Iran.
Voted against the Conventional Trident Missile Program.


Voted for Richard Paez to the 9th Curcuit (cloture).
Voted for Sonia Sotomayor, Circuit Judge.
Voted for Richard Holbrooke to be Ambassador to the UN.
Voted for Margaret Morrow to be District Judge.
Voted twice for Marsha Berzon to the 9thg Circuit.
Voted for Mary McLaughlin to be District Judge.
Voted for Tim Dyk to be District Judge.
Voted for James Brady to be District Judge.


Voted against National Right to Work Act.
Voted against repeal of Davis-Bacon Prevailing union wages.
Voted for Alexis Herman to be Secretary of Labor.
Voted for mandatory Federal child care funding.
Voted for Trade Adjustment Assistance.
Voted for Job Corps funding.
Voted twice in support of Fedex Unionization.
Voted against allowing a waiver of Davis-Bacon in emergency situations.
Voted for minimum wage increases six times here here here here here and here.
Voted to require a union representative on an IRS oversight board.
Voted to exempt IRS union representatives from criminal ethics laws.
Voted against creating independent Board of Governors to investigate IRS abuses.


Voted to require pawn shops to do background checks on people who pawn a gun.
Voted twice to make it illegal to sell a gun without a secure storage or safety device.
Voted for a Federal ban on possession of “assault weapons” by those under 18.
Voted for Federal funding for anti-gun education programs in schools.
Voted for anti-gun juvenile justice bill.


Voted for funding for the legal services corporation.
Voted twice for a Congressional pay raise.
Voted to impose a uniform Federal mandate on states to force them to allow convicted rapists, arsonists, drug kingpins, and all other ex-convicts to vote in Federal elections.
Voted for the Specter “backup plan” to allow campaign finance reform to survive if portions of the bill were found unconstitutional.
Voted to mandate discounted broadcast times for politicians.
Voted for a McCain amendment to require state and local campaign committees to report all campaign contributions to the FEC and to require all campaign contributions to be reported to the FEC within 24 hours within 90 days of an election.


Voted against increasing the number of immigration investigators.
Voted to allow illegal immigrants to receive the earned income credit before becoming citizens.
Voted to give SSI benefits to legal aliens.
Voted to give welfare benefits to naturalized citizens without regard to the earnings of their sponsors.
Voted against hiring an additional 1,000 border patrol agents, paid for by reductions in state grants.


Voted against a flat tax.
Voted to increase tobacco taxes to pay for Medicare prescription drugs.
Voted to increase tobacco taxes to fund health insurance subsidies for small businesses.
Voted to increase tobacco taxes to pay for an $8 billion increase in child healh insurance.
Voted to increase tobacco taxes to pay for an increase in NIH funding.
Voted twice for internet taxes.
Voted to allow gas tax revenues to be used to subsidize Amtrak.
Voted to strike marriage penalty tax relief and instead provide fines on tobacco companies.
Voted against repealing the Clinton 4.3 cent gas tax increase.
Voted to increase taxes by $2.3 billion to pay for an Amtrak trust fund.
Voted to allow welfare to a minor who had a child out of wedlock and who resided with an adult who was on welfare within the previous two years.
Voted to increase taxes by $9.4 billion to pay for a $9.4 billion increase in student loans.
Voted to say that AMT patch is more important than capital gains and dividend relief.


Voted against food stamp reform.
Voted against Medicaid reform.
Voted against TANF reform.
Voted to increase the Social Services Block Grant from $1 billion to $2 billion.
Voted to increase the FHA loan from $170,000 to $197,000. Also opposed increasing GNMA guaranty from 6 basis points to 12.
Voted for $2 billion for low income heating assistance.


Sponsored an amendment to increase Amtrak funds by $550 million.
Voted to use HUD funds for the Joslyn Art Museum (NE), the Stand Up for Animals project (RI) and the Seattle Art Museum’s Olympic Sculpture Project (WA).
Voted to increase spending on social programs by $7 billion.
Voted to increase NIH funding by $1.6 billion.
Voted to increase NIHnding by $700 million.
Voted to for a $2 million earmark to renovate the Vulcan Monument (AL).
Voted for a $1 billion bailout for the steel industry.
Voted against requiring that highway earmarks would come out of a state’s highway allocation.
Voted to allow Market Access Program funds to go to foreign companies.
Voted to allow OPIC to increase its administrative costs by 50%.
Voted against transferring $20 million from AmeriCorps to veterans.
Voted for the $140 billion asbestos compensation bill.
Voted against requiring a uniform medical criteria to ensure asbestos claims were legitimate.
Voted to increase community development programs by $2 billion.

Spending and Entitlements

Voted to make Medicare part B premium subsidies a new entitlement.
Voted against paying off the debt ($5.6 trillion at the time) within 30 years.
Voted to give $18 billion to the IMF.
Voted to raid Social Security instead of using surpluses to pay down the debt.

Health Care

Voted to allow states to impose health care mandates that are stricter than proposed new Federal mandates, but not weaker.
Voted twice for Federal mental health parity mandates in health insurance.
Voted against allowing consumers the option to purchase a plan outside the parity mandate.


Voted to increase Federal funding for teacher testing.
Voted to increase spending for the Department of Education by $3.1 billion.
Voted against requiring courts to consider the impact of IDEA awards on a local school district.


Voted to allow the President to designate certain sites as interim nuclear waste storage sites in the event that he determines that Yucca Mountain is not a suitable site for a permanent waste repository. Those sites are as follows: the nuclear waste site in Hanford, Washington; the Savannah River Site in South Carolina; Barnwell County, South Carolina; and the Oak Ridge Reservation in Tennessee.

Voted to make fuel price gouging a Federal crime.

60 posted on 02/10/2012 1:16:01 PM PST by editor-surveyor (No Federal Sales Tax - No Way!)
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