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Path to a Brokered GOP Convention Emerges
Real Clear Politics ^ | 2/9/12 | Sean Trende

Posted on 02/09/2012 6:01:07 AM PST by Lakeshark

But now we have to consider that Santorum has won Iowa and Minnesota in the Midwest, and won Colorado largely on the strength of his showing in eastern Colorado (which is basically the Great Plains). He also won Missouri -- which is culturally more southern than Midwestern -- but Gingrich wasn’t on the ballot there. For now at least, he is the "anti-Romney" in the Midwest.

If this split continues -- Romney in the West and Northeast, Gingrich in the South, and Santorum in the Midwest -- we could easily find ourselves in a scenario where no candidate crosses the 1,144-delegate threshold by the time voting ends. Consider this: Right now, Romney barely has a majority of the delegates. If Gingrich successfully contests the winner-takes-all allocation in the Florida primary (based on the RNC’s rule against such a format before April), no one would have a majority of the delegates as of today.
**snip**
The key is that neither Gingrich nor Santorum can begin to do so well that the other drops out. Both must remain effectively regional candidates. If Gingrich’s support collapses in the South, it might leave an opening there for Santorum. We’ve seen some potential evidence of this, as Gingrich’s support in Gallup’s tracking poll is down about seven points since the Florida primary (although it isn’t down in the wake of Santorum’s wins Tuesday night). If that were to occur, we would be back to a two-person race.
**snip**
The path to this outcome is still a very narrow, precarious one. But for the first time, I can see it.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: brokeredconvention; newt; newt4romney; newtgetout; romney; santorum
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This is a worthwhile article to read, Santorum and Nedwt supporters, note that the author claims that both have to stay viable for Romney to be whupped. What does everyone here think about how this is shaping up?
1 posted on 02/09/2012 6:01:15 AM PST by Lakeshark
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To: Lakeshark
Guh. Nedwt Newt

*need more coffee*

2 posted on 02/09/2012 6:02:31 AM PST by Lakeshark (NbIttoalbl,cRwIdtaa)
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To: Lakeshark

I can only hope that the conservative Santorum wins so that conservative views can be upheld in the current evil communist run DC.


3 posted on 02/09/2012 6:03:43 AM PST by kindred (Jesus Christ is the Lord God and Messiah of Israel, a present help in time of trouble.)
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To: Lakeshark

Palin 2012.


4 posted on 02/09/2012 6:05:09 AM PST by Cringing Negativism Network (What if Obama isn't the anti-Christ after all? What if it's Romney?...)
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To: Lakeshark

The PEOPLE should just remove the RINOs by vote.

There will be no need for Brokers or Romney.


5 posted on 02/09/2012 6:06:45 AM PST by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: kindred
Fact: Santorum's lifetime ACU rating is 80.

Fact: Newt's lifetime ACU rating is 89.

Y'all need to get over yourselves and listen, it seems that both are necessary to be viable to take Mitt down.

6 posted on 02/09/2012 6:07:31 AM PST by Lakeshark (NbIttoalbl,cRwIdtaa)
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To: Lakeshark

The PEOPLE should just remove the RINOs by vote.

There will be no need for Brokers or Romney.


7 posted on 02/09/2012 6:07:31 AM PST by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: Diogenesis
Don't we wish.......
8 posted on 02/09/2012 6:09:27 AM PST by Lakeshark (NbIttoalbl,cRwIdtaa)
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To: Lakeshark

It’s looking more like “Not-Romney” as this thing winds out and that is great news. There is no doubt in my mind that Romney would lose to Obama.


9 posted on 02/09/2012 6:10:04 AM PST by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: Cringing Negativism Network
A long shot, but yeah, that would be great.

It's more likely that Newt and Rick will cut some kind of deal, or *gasp* Ron Paul would be the kingmaker.

10 posted on 02/09/2012 6:11:41 AM PST by Lakeshark (NbIttoalbl,cRwIdtaa)
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To: Lakeshark

I will try and present this in a mathematical formula.............. brokered convention = party bigwigs in the back room smoking cigars = mcromney as the nominee...............


11 posted on 02/09/2012 6:17:25 AM PST by joe fonebone (Project Gunwalker, this will make watergate look like the warm up band......)
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To: Lakeshark

This whole primary season, reminds me of a herd of Lemmings, stampeding back and forth on the deck of the Titanic, in hopes of jumping off into the Ocean on the “most perfect and correct” side of the ship as it slips beneath the surface.


12 posted on 02/09/2012 6:19:08 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: Lakeshark
He also won Missouri -- which is culturally more southern than Midwestern

STOP THERE That statement alone disqualifies the author from any intelligent analysis.

13 posted on 02/09/2012 6:21:02 AM PST by 11th Commandment (http://www.thirty-thousand.org/)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

Sarah! Sarah! Sarah!


14 posted on 02/09/2012 6:21:05 AM PST by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: joe fonebone
I believe the likely procedural possibility would be a Newt/Santorum alliance for one of them, providing neither one gets bought by Romney. I doubt this will be the old idea of bigwigs in the back room, the rules don't favor that at all.
15 posted on 02/09/2012 6:23:33 AM PST by Lakeshark (NbIttoalbl,cRwIdtaa)
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To: Diogenesis

If this is the best way to stop Romney, I’m for it.


16 posted on 02/09/2012 6:25:16 AM PST by CASchack
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To: Lakeshark

I don’t care if there is a clear winner or it gets brokered.

Either way we get a conservative and Mutt gets swamped.


17 posted on 02/09/2012 6:29:11 AM PST by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously, you won't live through it anyway)
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To: MissMagnolia
Trisha Erikson (sp) has written a book that is being discussed on some local talk radio stations. It will take Romney down. Just depends if we want it to be now or in the fall, leaving Obama as the winner.

Her credentials are impeccable: Political background and experience plus her father was a Bishop just like Romney.

The book is available in paperback from Amazon. Some freepers have bought multiple copies to share with their communities.

Expect the MSM to pick her up as a guest in the fall.

Book is titled: “Can Mitt Romney Serve Two Masters”.

18 posted on 02/09/2012 6:29:19 AM PST by hoosiermama (Stand with God and Sarah, the Gipper and Newt will be standing next to you.)
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To: CASchack

I think a lot of people want a brokered convention which will result in a “fresh face” candidate.

I think that the depressed primary poll numbers is, in fact, a vote for “none of the above”!


19 posted on 02/09/2012 6:29:19 AM PST by catman67
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To: Lakeshark

Here’s the thing about a split vote:

In many states, even those with proportional delegate counts, a split vote doesn’t necessarily translate into the same split in the delegate count.

Of course in a winner-take-all primary the obvious happens: a 35-30-25-10 outcome awards ALL the delegates to the guy who got the 35.

But even in a proportional state, a 35-30-25-10 outcome can result in a huge disparity between the number of delegates that the #1 guy gets and the number of delegates that the #2 guy gets.

No matter how you spin it (and I’ve read so much spin on this subject lately that I have to keep a barf-bag handy) Gingrich and Santorum both remaining in the race gives Romney a huge boost. Period.

All other statements on the subject are complete 100% total BS.

Romney vs. Gingrich+Santorum = Romney Wins. Period.

Romney vs. Gingrich, or Romney vs. Santorum, means that Romney loses.

But conservatives are stupid. We can’t coalesce behind a single candidate. Instead, we congratulate ourselves on having two conservative alternatives... while handing the race to Romney.

Romney must really, really be laughing at us. Really laughing hard.

We. Are. Stupid.


20 posted on 02/09/2012 6:29:32 AM PST by samtheman
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To: Lakeshark

I don’t care if there is a clear winner or it gets brokered.

Either way we get a conservative and Mutt gets swamped.


21 posted on 02/09/2012 6:29:32 AM PST by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously, you won't live through it anyway)
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To: 11th Commandment
13 posted on Thursday, February 09, 2012 8:21:02 AM by 11th Commandment: “He also won Missouri — which is culturally more southern than Midwestern STOP THERE That statement alone disqualifies the author from any intelligent analysis.”

If he's talking Republican primaries he may have a point.

Kansas City and St. Louis and Columbia are not exactly the center-of-mass of Republican primary votes. Places like Springfield are, along with rural voters and (to be fair) a significant portion of suburban voters outside the major cities.

Missouri has been known for decades as being a mix of northern and southern, eastern and western, rural and urban voters, and therefore a microcosm of the national electorate. As the state has shifted rightward, the Republican Party primaries have shifted much more dramatically toward a southern and rural electorate.

And yes, I do live here in Missouri.

22 posted on 02/09/2012 6:30:15 AM PST by darrellmaurina
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To: Lakeshark

I would hold my nose and vote for anybody to get rid of Obama. But first, my brother, who is even more conservative than me and worked for the RNC for years (so he knows Romney and his people personally), told me he would leave the top line blank before he would vote for that snake Romney. Then last night, I was talking to a friend in Connecticut, and she said she hadn’t voted for a Democrat in 20 years, but if Romney was the nominee, she would protest by voting for Obama. And she can’t stand Obama! So where the heck is all this electability of Romney’s that I keep hearing about? I think it’s like Brer Rabbit and the briar patch: the White House is saying, “Oh please, don’t make us run against Mitt Romney! He’s the only Republican we can’t beat, so pleeeeeease don’t put him up against us!”


23 posted on 02/09/2012 6:31:47 AM PST by HHFi
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To: samtheman; Diogenesis; All

See eighteen. Also ask your local talk radio stations to have her as a guest. Shame Hannity hasn’t. Maybe he doesn’t know about her....hint.


24 posted on 02/09/2012 6:35:36 AM PST by hoosiermama (Stand with God and Sarah, the Gipper and Newt will be standing next to you.)
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To: joe fonebone
brokered convention = party bigwigs in the back room smoking cigars = mcromney as the nominee...............

Your math is impeccable.

25 posted on 02/09/2012 6:38:02 AM PST by Lazamataz (Yes, I am THAT Conservative.)
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To: kindred

Santorum is not a reliable conservative on economic/fiscal issues. He’s a big government “compassionate conservative” ala George W Bush. No thank you.


26 posted on 02/09/2012 6:39:45 AM PST by St. Louis Conservative
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To: samtheman
See # 12,

In addition to that, Santorum is up to his usual incompetent political speed. He has absolutely no clear economic plan, would not know how to even begin to approach it and he is not even close to being fiscally conservative or a Washington Outsider like he has his Lemming supporters convinced he is.

27 posted on 02/09/2012 6:42:51 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: hoosiermama

I’ve been hearing about that book. You know the Obama Boys are just waiting for Romney to be the nominee and then they will blow him out of the water ... they’ve got enough ammo without using the religion card in my opinion, but they’ll use it to make sure Romney is utterly destroyed. Mitt’s big bucks won’t save him in the national election & he’s got his head in the sand (nicer turn of phrase than what I’d like to say) if he thinks otherwise. The Mormon vs. the Muslim .... if the survival of the country weren’t at stake, I’d almost like to see them have at each other.


28 posted on 02/09/2012 6:43:51 AM PST by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: samtheman
No matter how you spin it (and I’ve read so much spin on this subject lately that I have to keep a barf-bag handy) Gingrich and Santorum both remaining in the race gives Romney a huge boost. Period.

I'm sure you believe that but it's based on the premise that Santorum & Gingrich are splitting the anti-Romney/Paul vote and if one dropped out the other would unite that opposition. Polling says that belief is demonstrably unfounded.

An easy example: if Santorum had dropped out after Florida, Romney would have won Colorado and Missouri (at least) because Newt couldn't pull the kind of support in the Midwest that Santorum can. Likewise, there's a certain affinity for Gingrich in the South that Santorum (so far) has not shown.

It's a delicate balance and one that can work against conservatives in select states, but as long as we're dealing with proportional allocation a 4-way split is clearly preferable. Maybe one candidate should drop out in late March, but that's a long way away.

29 posted on 02/09/2012 6:50:50 AM PST by RygelXVI
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To: St. Louis Conservative
This is almost good in a weird sort of way. Because Santorum did well in 3 Midwest states with little to no Delegate gains, it will train the Romney money factory on Santorum, who will now, finally be vetted properly.

RINO Rick can no longer skulk in the background and take potshots at Newt when Newt is clearly out gunned financially. Newt always seems to gain during times like this.

30 posted on 02/09/2012 6:53:30 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: St. Louis Conservative
Santorum is not a reliable conservative on economic/fiscal issues. He’s a big government

Santorum is not perfect but he and Gingrich are very close in terms of fiscal issues - earmarks, balanced budget amendment, tax reform, Medicare Part D. One could argue that Santorum's platform for aggressive entitlement reform and Newt's attack on Ryan's entitlement reform makes Santorum far superior - but let's say they're on the same page generally. If you oppose Santorum for fiscal reasons, you oppose Gingrich as well.

That leaves favoring a brokered convention - which involves both Santorum & Gingrich succeeding in the primaries - or Mitt, or Ron Paul. Which do you prefer?

31 posted on 02/09/2012 6:59:02 AM PST by RygelXVI
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

Rino Rick?

Someone forget a sarcasm tag?

I don’t know about you, but I remember President Reagan. I remember understanding he was principled, and at the time that made me a little nervous because of what an actual conflict with the Soviet Union would have meant.

Reagan was the greatest president in our nation’s history.

Now, I get that very same gut, about Santorum.

He’s the first politician who I’ve thought that about, since Reagan.

Santorum is no Rino.


32 posted on 02/09/2012 7:00:25 AM PST by Cringing Negativism Network (What if Obama isn't the anti-Christ after all? What if it's Romney?...)
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To: MissMagnolia; All
It’s looking more like “Not-Romney” as this thing winds out and that is great news. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ One of RINO-Rom's 3 "home States" (Michigan) is having a Primary before Super Tuesday. Rick Santorum is taking Mitt on in Michigan (Newt is ducking and concentrating on Arizona. I don't know how Newt thinks he's gonna win if he keeps picking and choosing his State contests.) If Santorum beats Mitt in Michigan, (and he just might) that will be the beginning of the end for RINO-Rom. I was on Facebook this a.m. and all my Michigan friends are going for Santorum or Newt; not one is going for Romney.
33 posted on 02/09/2012 7:11:12 AM PST by no dems (I'm more concerned with America's future than I am Newt's past.)
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To: no dems

Lots of folks in VA, given only two choices on the primary ballot (Romney or Paul) are voting Paul.


34 posted on 02/09/2012 7:13:36 AM PST by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: no dems
Rick Santorum is taking Mitt on in Michigan (Newt is ducking and concentrating on Arizona. I don't know how Newt thinks he's gonna win if he keeps picking and choosing his State contests.)

To beat Romney, it makes sense if Santorum concentrates on Michigan - where he's stronger - and Newt on Arizona, where he's stronger.

Michigan is Winner-Take-All by Congressional District - so if Mitt won 35% to 34% in every district he would win nearly all the delegates; at-large delegates are split proportionally.

Realistically, (IMO) Newt has no chance to win more than 1 or 2 delegates in Michigan, so he's trying for Arizona which is true winner-take-all.

35 posted on 02/09/2012 7:21:28 AM PST by RygelXVI
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To: samtheman
Romney's not laughing, he's pissed. So much money, and he's no longer the inevitable candidate, the best he can get is a three way split.

I understand your concern about Newt and Santorum splitting, but what are you going to be able to do about it? Which one is going to drop out?

36 posted on 02/09/2012 7:23:49 AM PST by Lakeshark (NbIttoalbl,cRwIdtaa)
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To: Lakeshark

You know.. one potentially GOOD thing about changing candidates at the convention would be: ALL the research and ads that the Dems have prepared sliming each of the Rep leaders would become instantly worthless... They would really have to scramble to get the mud prepared for slinging if we changed our nominee at the last second.

But... it’s a pipe dream. I have about as much chance of playing QB for the Packers next year.


37 posted on 02/09/2012 7:26:51 AM PST by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them)
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To: 11th Commandment

LOL! just go to St Louis or Kansas City and claim that Mo is more southern. I am from the south and moved to MO..believe me this state is far from southern.
I do believe we will know more after super tuesday. In the meantime..Santorum has recieved a free pass from the other candidates, the media and NO super pac attacks either. Wait until he is vetted which will happen soon. He is no conservative imo.

GO NEWT!


38 posted on 02/09/2012 8:05:23 AM PST by katiedidit1 ("This is one race of people for whom psychoanalysis is of no use whatsoever." the Irish)
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To: Lakeshark; All
I read the entire article. A Brokered Convention sounds exciting but this is a concern about a BC if someone, not currently running, gets the nod:

The nominee would have to be able to put together a platform, a fundraising organization, prepare for debates, select a running mate, and hit the campaign trail, all in a manner of weeks.
And the candidate would not be fully vetted. There might be some skeleton in his closet, or his family’s.


The last Dem BC was in 1952 when they nominated Gov. Adlai Stevenson of IL. The last GOP BC was 1940 when they nominated Wendell Wilkie. THEY BOTH LOST.
39 posted on 02/09/2012 8:49:32 AM PST by no dems (I'm more concerned with America's future than I am Newt's past.)
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To: RygelXVI

Thanks for the input. Answered some questions for me. Thanks again.


40 posted on 02/09/2012 9:12:04 AM PST by no dems (I'm more concerned with America's future than I am Newt's past.)
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To: MissMagnolia

Lots of folks in VA, given only two choices on the primary ballot (Romney or Paul) are voting Paul.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Good!


41 posted on 02/09/2012 9:13:52 AM PST by no dems (I'm more concerned with America's future than I am Newt's past.)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
"…jumping off into the Ocean on the “most perfect and correct” side of the ship as it slips beneath the surface."
Brilliant analogy my FRiend!
42 posted on 02/09/2012 9:15:46 AM PST by bksanders (Old Gets Older the Older I Get)
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To: Lazamataz; joe fonebone

Didn’t Rudy McRomney run last time?


43 posted on 02/09/2012 9:17:38 AM PST by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: no dems
Re a Brokered Convention:

The one Republican I can think of who everyone likes (sad state of affairs) is Paul Ryan.

Mitch Daniels would also be a good choice, though perhaps not with that 'wow' factor (putting it mildly). The other governor choice is, of course, the 2nd universally popular Republican (I have a bad memory): Scott Walker.

44 posted on 02/09/2012 9:20:47 AM PST by RygelXVI
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To: MissMagnolia
Lots of folks in VA, given only two choices on the primary ballot (Romney or Paul) are voting Paul.

That is what has to happen. I hope people vote for not romney which in Virginia happens to be paul.

Delegates are Proportional

45 posted on 02/09/2012 9:29:51 AM PST by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: CPT Clay

Statewide: if winner receives a majority Winner-Take-All Primary otherwise Proportional Primary


46 posted on 02/09/2012 9:40:53 AM PST by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: RygelXVI
The Choices at that time are endless,

As you said, Gov Daniels or Gov Walker.

Ryan is highly regarded

Sen DeMint?
Gov McDonnell?
Alan West is my favorite. If Called, he will do it.
Of course Sarah comes to mind Anybody considered a true outsider like TJ Rodgers from silicon valley? Steve Wynn, a man who can walk the walk. General Petreus could govern. So could General McChrystal (fire the man who fired him) Brokered convention sounds good to me!!! I also like Ken Cuchinelli (sp) Virginia AG
What would be so bad with someone like Ted Nugent?

47 posted on 02/09/2012 9:45:18 AM PST by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: joe fonebone; Lazamataz
I will try and present this in a mathematical formula.............. brokered convention = party bigwigs in the back room smoking cigars = mcromney as the nominee...............

I agree with your formula I just disagree with your conclusion. The result the GOPe will dispense is Jeb Bush as a compromise to the Conservatives since Romney will have already been rejected by a majority of Conservatives. They will give us the bone of a fresh face - i.e. Jeb.

I'm not for it. I just think that's what will happen.

Regards,

TS

48 posted on 02/09/2012 10:01:03 AM PST by The Shrew (www.wintersoldier.com; www.tstrs.com; The Truth Shall Set You Free!)
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To: Lakeshark

Did Santorum indicate he favors romney over newt? If so a brokered convention would be a disaster.


49 posted on 02/09/2012 11:17:02 AM PST by Triple (Socialism denies people the right to the fruits of their labor, and is as abhorrent as slavery)
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To: Lakeshark
What does everyone here think about how this is shaping up?

SaaaaRAHH! Saaaa-RAH!!

Saaaaa - RAAAHHH!!!

<Roof begins to collapse, convention goes mad, Maureen Dowd swan-dives out of her New York Times pressbox to the convention floor four stories below>

That about get it?

50 posted on 02/09/2012 1:20:42 PM PST by lentulusgracchus
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