Skip to comments.NYT/CBS poll shows conservatives consolidating behind Santorum
Posted on 02/14/2012 6:47:22 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Consider this a corroboration of Gallup and Pew, both of which have recorded a surge for Rick Santorum that makes him the national frontrunner — if not in each state. The CBS/New York Times poll shows Santorum gaining 14 points in a single month, eclipsing Mitt Romney by three points (still within the MOE), whose support stayed virtually unchanged from January. Almost all of the gain comes at the expense of Newt Gingrich, who dropped to fourth place behind Ron Paul among Republican primary voters:
Rick Santorum has pulled slightly ahead of Mitt Romney in Republican primary voters’ preference for the presidential nomination, a national CBS News/New York Times Poll shows.
Ron Paul is now in third, followed by former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich.
Among self-described conservative voters, the shift has been fairly dramatic. A month ago in this poll series, conservatives were equally split between Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum at 25/25/24 respectively. Now, however, Santorum’s support in this demo has risen to 38%, while Romney has remained steady at 24% and Gingrich dropped by about half to 12%. The same thing has happened to Tea Party support and evangelicals. The dynamic seems to be a movement away from Gingrich and a consolidation among conservative voters behind Santorum as the alternative to Romney, at least for now.
There are a few things to note about this poll, however. This is a poll of registered voters, not likely voters, which is not as predictive a model and is a curious sampling choice in the middle of the actual primary voting. These results come from a larger survey, most of whose results will be announced later. The overall sample was 1,064 registered voters, but only 331 of those planned to vote in a Republican primary. At least a few of those will be independents rather than Republicans, so the partisan split of the overall survey is likely to be highly skewed to Democrats. That doesn’t matter for these results, but a sample of 331 registered voters for a national poll is on the small side. Keep that in mind.
Now that Santorum has become a legitimate force in the race, he’s getting some attention from the usual suspects. Member of Occupy Tacoma tried to crash a Santorum event, and Politico reports that Santorum responded by calling them agents of “true intolerance”:
Filling the front row at the Washington State History Museum where Santorum spoke, a group of Occupy protesters disrupted the event, forcing Santorum to engage them. Occupy Tacoma, the local branch of the Occupy Wall Street movement, is camped out right next to the museum, and advertised Santorums visit on its web site.
I think its really important for you to understand what this radical element represents, because what they represent is true intolerance, Santorum said, after two protesters were taken to the ground and placed in handcuffs by police.
The protesters, Santorum suggested, instead of standing here unemployed, yelling at somebody should instead go out and get a job.
Santorums supporters roared their approval, chanting get a job back at the Occupiers.
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then …
He was my 3rd choice line in the sand candidate.
I think he’ll be a good president but we can make him a great president.
Rick/Newt or Newt/Rick.
Not surprised by these latest polling numbers.
For now.... Perry, Cain, Gingrich......
He’s the weakest of the 3, and Obama will decimate him in a debate, and we will lose again.
I hope Santorum wins it. Even if he can’t beat Obama, he’s the only candidate I can vote for and feel okay in my conscience. When I voted in the primary in my state, I just got a sick feeling when I looked at Romney and Newt. I felt like I was compromising and selling myself out by voting for them.
He certainly is saying all the right things now. Unlike Willard.
He was really a solid Conservative as my Senator. He takes a lot of heat over 2 things.
-His support of Arlen Specter over Pat Toomey in 2006. I chalk this up to “being a loyal party guy”, much in the way Sarah Palin felt compelled to campaign for McCain in Arizona. I think this will now benefit Rick as it will give the GOP establishment some second-thoughts about taking him out at the kneecaps. If they do this to such a loyal soldier, odds are they will never convince anyone again to ever do that for them in the future.
-His blowout loss to Bob Casey, Jr. whose IQ would place him somewhere in the legume family of vegetables. People outside Pennsylvania do not understand how this happened. It happened because Casey deliberately mislead the huge pool of senile voters in this state into believing that he was his dead father, a very popular Governor. And the #1 priority issue in any statewide election in PA has always been FREE STUFF FOR SENIOR CITIZENS. Casey ran around telling seasoned citizens that the reason they did not have more free stuff was that the Eeeeeeevil Moron George W. Bush was flushing all that money down a rathole in Iraq.
Sadly, most of them bought it.
“I hope Santorum wins it. Even if he cant beat Obama, hes the only candidate I can vote for and feel okay in my conscience. When I voted in the primary in my state, I just got a sick feeling when I looked at Romney and Newt. I felt like I was compromising and selling myself out by voting for them.”
As Rush has (accurately) said, mid-term elections are ALWAYS a referendum on the incumbent. It really doesn’t matter who the opponent is. So if the country is as angry at Obama as it was a year ago, Rick should have no trouble winning.
Romney could never beat Obama. Many conservatives would rather stay home than vote for the pretender.
A lot of supposed conservatives are really gullible these days. Santorum is a backstabber who is only helping Romney.
Muslim Brotherhood Warns U.S. Aid Cut May Affect Egypts Peace Treaty With Israel
Terrorists are WARNING/THREATENING the USA!Obama already gave them pot loads of OUR money!
I do not buy Gingrich's anti-Santorum propaganda.
I don't see how Santorum is any more liberal than Gingrich is.
I do see how much more relatable Santorum is than Gingrich.
“Romney could never beat Obama. Many conservatives would rather stay home than vote for the pretender.”
I promised myself I would never vote for McCain, because of his and Kerry’s sellout of the POW/MIA’s in ‘93.
But when the day came in 2008, I held my nose and voted R anyway.
I won’t do that again, ever! A non-vote for Romney is at the very least a message to the establishment republicans (and Carl Rove) that we are sick of getting their chosen candidate forced upon us.
The difference between Santorum and those two is that he's smart enough to let the public figure out that Gregory is an idiot without needing to appear combative. It's like Reagan saying, "There you go again."
Look at how "combative" wore on the public perception of both Palin and Newt. Look at the distraction Romney's lies have been to Newt, forcing him to spend his time "fighting back" instead of advancing his agenda. Inasmuch as "fighting back" is needed, it is important that a President not be seen as stooping to doing so. It's better to leave such battles to others. Newt didn't have the money for that, which is why a squeaky clean record is so important in a conservative candidate.
LINK? Proof? Evidence? of any kind?
I saw the same thing said on this forum about Perry and Bachmann being in the tank for Romney.It is Bullcrap.
If he is such a "weak" debater, then how come he decimated Mittens over RomneyCare in the last debate while Newt stood there like a potted plant? Rick is a good debater. Newt may be better overall, but comes across as an a**hole to most people, especially women, and that's what matters. Americans are so stupid and ill-informed that it is now a popularity contest, and Santorum is very likeable and has a nice wife. Women HATE Newt and his wife will be cast as a creepy home-wrecker.
I agree. I watched that interview and thought here it comes, the trap on the social issues. Will he trick him into saying something that can be clipped into a sound bite and used against him. Will he get Santorum to sound snarky and combative. It didn’t happen, and they cut away with Gregory joking with him about his sweater vests. So far Santorum strikes the line just right. Unlike McCain he doesn’t get people to like him by agreeing with their ideas, but he doesn’t scream his ideas in their face and call them names either. He tries to argue people to his side, and he does it better than anybody I’ve seen in a while. Persuasion is the only thing that will win this election.
Frankly, Rick is so versed on the issues and the Punk’s record, I wouldn’t be surprised if there were NO debates this fall. Obama is a coward, and there is no way that he will give Rick three “commercials” which would help Rick focus Americans’ attention on this Marxist administration. Bob
Romney, Santorum In Dead Heat for the GOP Nomination
Monday, February 13, 2012 05:28 PM
By: Newsmax Wires
Republican presidential contender Rick Santorum has vaulted into a front-runners position with Mitt Romney in two national polls that show the race for the GOP nomination becoming a two-man statistical tie.
Romney and Santorum are tied for the lead among Republican voters 32 to 30 percent, respectively in a Gallup Poll. And the Pew Research Center has the leaders flipped, with Santorum leading Romney 30 percent to 28 percent.
Because of the 19th amendment, I have to agree with you (and I like Newt FWIW).
A “severe” conservative (and rambunctious patriot?) would take one for the team(?) and drop out.
Go Gingrich! Go Santorum! Go US of A!
But he shot himself in the foot when he decided to attack Romney from the left, and he's never recovered.
If Newt is in the running when my primary comes round, I'll certainly vote for him. If not, I can vote for Santorum in the primary without holding my nose.
Romney vs Santorum is a much easier call for me than was 2008 - Romney vs McQueeg vs Huckabee.
With Santorum in the White House, conservatives bigger issues are a Speaker Boehner and a Majority Leader McConnell. They’ve been in Washington so long, they probably couldn’t drive themselves back to their own hometown.
We have to be careful for what we wish for on this one. The polls I've seen show Obumwad with a 70+% personal approval rating, and just over 50% job approval. He does less well on the economic issues but what I find crazy is that as a party the 'Rats come our ahead of the 'Pubs in polls where the question is "trust to manage the economy". That is pretty remarkable and a strong indictment of the lack of intelligence of the average voter that a so-called President and party that has caused so much harm to the country would pull those kind of ratings. And he hasn't really started campaigning yet, at least not in his typical style. He'll be sitting on a huge mountain of illegally-raised cash for the campaign that he really hasn't tapped yet. This is going to be a tough battle, more so than most people on FR seem to think. Whoever the nominee is on our side, they're going to have to make a strong case for themselves, not just count on an anti-Obama landslide, because right now it doesn't look like that is shaping up.
And yes, I saw the one Gallup poll of the so-called swing states that showed Obama losing most of them to a "generic Republican". But generic Republican isn't running. As soon as you put a name in for generic Republican, the numbers change, and not for the better. I know in my state, one of the so-called swing states, Obama loses to generic Republican, but beats any other non-generic Republican.
If Romnie is it, I’m staying home. Either Rick or I stay home. I will not vote for Romnie, Newbie or Paul the idiot.
forget 2008. What about his five ILLEGAL non-recess appointments just last month??? We've already forgotten them as a nation. What about his virtual amnesty for nearly 2 million illegal aliens? Obama continually violates the law, and gets away with it, with the stupid sheeple totally unaware of it.
I think a lot of well meaning conservative pro-life women are smitten with Rick due to his looks and “good guy” image. I think in some ways, they’re thinking subconsciously with their nether regions and I think that’s very shallow.
Newt has the better ideas and a far better understanding of history. Newt would govern conservatively but without trying to lecture or coming off as holier-than-thou. I really prefer this type of president leading the ENTIRE country to Rick.
Santorum will be mocked ad nauseam. He does seem to have a bit of teflon when it comes to this, because he really does stick to his principles. Only time will tell how he handles the media.
Big deal. A lot of people didn’t know about RomneyCare,were green around the ears in nat politics, or came from a democratic state and were therefore more open and moderate.Which BTW attracts independent votes (SEE REAGAN)
“Hes the weakest of the 3, and Obama will decimate him in a debate, and we will lose again”
amen! wish others would see that Gingrich is our strongest candidate.
I think you are exactly right at this point in Rick’s progression. His team HAS to know that the SOCIAL issues will be THE issues as he moves closer to potentially upsetting mittens. First mittens will nail him on it, and then, if nominated, President Obama’s team will make Social issues THE issues.
He needs to get EXCELLENT on his answers to Social Issues and NOT be surprised, or caught off guard, by them. The Media will not care what he has to say about the economy...even though we all know it “is the economy stupid”...they will say it’s the social issues stupid, and if Rick is not ready a good percentage of independents will believe it, get scared and vote for the O all over again.
Get schooled Rick! Study! Be ready! The next debate we will see if he has studied, if he has prepared, because look out they are going to try to do their best to nail him and make him look like a far right wing social conservative wacko.
“Hes the weakest of the 3”
He’s not weaker than mittens... Mitt has zero chance because he won’t be able to get the base behind him. Perhaps he’s weaker than Newt or Paul.
I did not. I voted for Alan Keyes.
I am satisfied I did the right thing.
Yeah, doing what they do best - to deceive voters. But they don't hold back how much they like slick rick which makes mitt's plan working perfectly. And mitt has his ads in Michigan slamming Newt while rick is leading there. It's so obvious, yet his supporters are unable to 'get it'.
Then there is the money quote, which kind of makes me ill:
One of the criticisms I make is to what I refer to as more of a Libertarianish right. They have this idea that people should be left alone, be able to do whatever they want to do, government should keep our taxes down and keep our regulations low, that we shouldnt get involved in the bedroom, we shouldnt get involved in cultural issues. That is not how traditional conservatives view the world.
Now, I do think Santorum is right to the extent there is some tension between social conservativism and libertarian conservatism, though abortion is a unique issue that even many libertarian conservatives oppose. But so directly picking a fight with libertarian leaning conservatives is just dumb. If you toss the "that government is best which governs least" element out, there just aren't enough votes to give a Republican a majority.
So I suppose that means I'm still stuck on Newt's moon colony.
“Hes the weakest of the 3, and Obama will decimate him in a debate, and we will lose again.”
You mean the same Obama who is so “smart” he reads off a teleprompter every time, including speeches to a kindergarten school? The reason why he “won’ those debates is because the polls were run by CNN, his chief ass-kissers in the media.
You are giving Klownie the Kommie Kenyan much credit here..
What an unbelieveably shallow 'thought.'
What on earth would cause you to be so arrogant that you put conservative pro-life women in such a distorted box? Besides which, if you were even half right about the 'looks' part of it, we'd be supporting Romney, wouldn't we?
What a bunch of hooey you just posted.
It does no good to bash/pick apart any little thing about Santorum because you got on the NEWT or (Pick a candidate) or nobody train. They all have warts.Gingrich bashed Ryans bill.Gingrich has been all over the map politically usually coming in left of liberal RINO.But it does not matter he is done.
I predicted on here many months ago Santorum would be the last man standing.Obama cannot win without PA.
Libertarians are fiscal conservatives, and social liberals, and that makes them only half way there.
If a libertarian is actually a thoughtful conservative (I'm sure a handful are), then they will vote for one of the two conservatives left in the race. Newt or Rick.
And Bush had Executive experience to boot, while Santorum has ZERO......... This is a guaranteed disaster. (AGAIN)
All of a sudden Obama is much more excited about the debates..
Screw the so-called “independents” AKA “moderates” AKA liberals.
They are either with us or they are Anti-American enemies. Seeing as they were never with us to begin with, I choose the latter.
Wonderful news about Santorum and he handled the Occupy crowd in an excellent manner. He made them the boogy guys. Eric, I hope we all are wearing sweater vests in the next couple of months. We can even put them on our dogs and cats. That could be a good campaign slogan “Sweater Vests for Rick”.