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5 Black Swans That Could Obliterate America's Future
Townhall.com ^ | February 21, 2012 | John Hawkins

Posted on 02/21/2012 5:11:24 AM PST by Kaslin

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1 posted on 02/21/2012 5:11:28 AM PST by Kaslin
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To: Kartographer

SHTF in 5 easy lessons.


2 posted on 02/21/2012 5:14:07 AM PST by raybbr (People who still support Obama are either a Marxist or a moron.)
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To: raybbr

These five are in no way as ruinous as knowledgeable people not voting.


3 posted on 02/21/2012 5:23:10 AM PST by HChampagne
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To: Kaslin

4 posted on 02/21/2012 5:24:03 AM PST by DannyTN
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To: HChampagne
"These five are in no way as ruinous as knowledgeable people not voting."

Or citizens being too lazy to become knowledgeable before voting.

5 posted on 02/21/2012 5:25:09 AM PST by DannyTN
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To: Kaslin

Even more reason to be praying and fasting for our nation...

(How many people are doing this?)


6 posted on 02/21/2012 5:37:00 AM PST by SumProVita (Cogito, ergo...Sum Pro Vita. (Modified Decartes))
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To: HChampagne

We’ve had ” The man from Hope, Arkansas”, ” Hope and Change” and now, ” Hope we get out of this alive”.


7 posted on 02/21/2012 5:38:47 AM PST by optiguy (Government does not solve problems; it subsidizes them.----- Ronald Reagan)
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To: DannyTN

Too late, I’m afraid.

The sixth and most immediate item is the possible reelection of the Scarecrow in Chief.


8 posted on 02/21/2012 5:39:35 AM PST by relictele (We are officially OUT of other people's money!)
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To: Kaslin

Default on the debt is a congressional, and leftist red herring. We have complete and total control over our financial future, and if we continue as at present, we deserve the destruction that will be ours. It will prove once and for all just how stupid the American people really are...or not.

Cut, slash, defund, eliminate, etc are words that better start appearing in the headlines if we have any hope of surviving the next few years.


9 posted on 02/21/2012 5:43:15 AM PST by wita
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To: Kaslin

WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE!


10 posted on 02/21/2012 5:55:03 AM PST by frithguild (Withdraw from the 1967 Treaty on Outer Space. It bans private property and profits.)
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To: relictele

“The sixth and most immediate item is the possible reelection of the Scarecrow in Chief.”

Now THAT is funny...the way you put it. The possibility, however, is NOT funny, and I agree, Barack Obama poses a clear andpresent danger to the USA.


11 posted on 02/21/2012 5:55:58 AM PST by astounded (Barack Obama as POTUS is a clear and present danger to the USA)
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To: relictele

“The sixth and most immediate item is the possible reelection of the Scarecrow in Chief.”

Now THAT is funny...the way you put it. The possibility, however, is NOT funny, and I agree, Barack Obama poses a clear and present danger to the USA.


12 posted on 02/21/2012 5:56:08 AM PST by astounded (Barack Obama as POTUS is a clear and present danger to the USA)
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To: Kaslin
NONE OF THE ABOVE ARE real black swans.

Here's TWO actual events in the process of fully actualizing that are better examples of "Black Swans":

  1. A generation with a big majority of fatherless children. This is never happened outside of war. And even in war, the children were born in wedlock. There was always the spirit and memory of the Dad and of the marriage along with the legitimacy of lawful fatherhood to assuage the actual lack of a father.

  2. A society where majority of people are living alone. Unlike the generation of fatherless children which is already upon us, that fatherless generation now being infants, we are not yet a society where most people live alone. But we are getting there. Eric Klinenberg has says in his book Going Solo: The Extraordinary Rise and Surprising Appeal of Living Alone
    In 1950, there were about 4 million Americans living alone, a little less than 10% of all households were one-person households. And back then, it was most common in the sprawling Western states, like Alaska, and Montana, and Nevada, because single migrant men went there.

    Today, there are more than 32 million people living alone—according to the latest census estimates, 32.7 million—and that’s about 28% of all American households. This is an enormous change. Instead of being most common in the West, it’s now most common in big cities, and it's common in big cities throughout the country. In Seattle, and San Francisco, and Denver, and Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C., and Chicago, there are between 35 and 45% of the households have just one person. In Manhattan, where I live, about 1 of every 2 households is a one-person household.


13 posted on 02/21/2012 5:59:22 AM PST by bvw
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To: Kaslin

14 posted on 02/21/2012 5:59:52 AM PST by The Great RJ ("The problem with socialism is that pretty soon you run out of other people's money" M. Thatcher)
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To: Kaslin

I’ve gone into the Default on the Debt scenario extensively writing two books already out:

Going Galt: Surviving Economic Armageddon http://www.futurnamics.com/goinggalt.php
Surviving Civil War II: Preparing for Social, Economic & Political Collapse http://www.futurnamics.com/civilwar.php

I have a third book about the Biflationary paradigm we’re in which I just finished and will show up in a couple days on Amazon :
Biflationary Depression: Protecting Assets From Inflation And Deflation In A Keynesian Collapse http://www.futurnamics.com/biflation.php

The numbers I’ve researched on the economy for these three books really are frightening. We may muddle through at some level (the sun will always come up) but buckle up for rough times.


15 posted on 02/21/2012 6:03:02 AM PST by FastCoyote (I am intolerant of the intolerable.)
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To: Kaslin

16 posted on 02/21/2012 6:04:05 AM PST by The Great RJ ("The problem with socialism is that pretty soon you run out of other people's money" M. Thatcher)
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To: DannyTN

I’m glad you got it all figured out Pollyanna.


17 posted on 02/21/2012 6:04:56 AM PST by IMR 4350
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To: Kaslin

“If you nuke us, use an EMP or a bioweapon we’ll default on our debt”.

Mutual Assured Destruction. Problem solved.


18 posted on 02/21/2012 6:23:21 AM PST by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Kaslin

I don’t think the author understands what a ‘Black Swan’ is. Thery are surprises. Nothing in that list hasn’t been discussed ad nauseum for years.


19 posted on 02/21/2012 6:29:58 AM PST by CodeToad (NO TAXATION WITHOUT REPRESENTATION!!!)
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To: HChampagne
These five are in no way as ruinous as knowledgeable people not voting.

I am far less concerned about knowlegeable people not voting than the ignorant showing up at the polls en masse.

Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large numbers.

20 posted on 02/21/2012 6:36:58 AM PST by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing)
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To: appalachian_dweller; OldPossum; DuncanWaring; VirginiaMom; CodeToad; goosie; kalee; ...

Prepper’s PING!


21 posted on 02/21/2012 6:37:20 AM PST by Kartographer ("We mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor.")
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To: The Great RJ

EMP won’t take out the electrical grid,

decommissioning power plants will.


22 posted on 02/21/2012 6:42:22 AM PST by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working for)
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To: Kaslin

Bump for later


23 posted on 02/21/2012 6:51:51 AM PST by Mike Darancette (Romney just makes me tired all over.)
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To: CodeToad

They aren’t surprises to the well informed, but that’s just a faction of the people, look at some of the comments already posted on this thread, by people who claim to be conservatives and yet clearly have their head buried in the sand.

Many will fall to what is called Normalcy Bias, a mental state many people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster occurring and its possible effects. This often results in situations where people fail to adequately prepare for a disaster, and on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations. The assumption that is made in the case of the normalcy bias is that since a disaster never has occurred then it never will occur. It also results in the inability of people to cope with a disaster once it occurs. People with a normalcy bias have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before. People also tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic way possible, seizing on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation.

How many Jews do you think went all the way into the gas chambers never fully realizing what was happening?

There’s a good article about it in my Preparedness Manual, which can be downloaded here for FREE:

http://tomeaker.com/kart/Preparedness1j.pdf

For those of you who haven’t started already it’s time to prepare almost past time maybe. You needed to be stocking up on food guns, ammo, basic household supplies like soap, papergoods, cleaning supplies, good sturdy clothes including extra socks, underwear and extra shoes and boots, a extra couple changes of oil and filters for your car, tools, things you buy everyday start buying two and put one up.

As the LDS say “When the emergency is upon us the time for preparedness has past.”

Or as the bible says: A prudent man sees danger and takes refuge, but the simple keep going and suffer for it.
NIV Proverbs 22:3

Lastly this for the doubters and the scoffers.

“There is no greater disaster than to underestimate danger.

Underestimation can be fatal.”


24 posted on 02/21/2012 6:56:58 AM PST by Kartographer ("We mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor.")
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To: MrB

I see it as a two edge sword, what the EMP doesn’t get the EPA will.


25 posted on 02/21/2012 6:58:25 AM PST by Kartographer ("We mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor.")
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To: CodeToad

“I don’t think the author understands what a ‘Black Swan’ is. They are surprises. Nothing in that list hasn’t been discussed ad nauseum for years.”

I completely agree. A black swan event is, by definition, an event that is not anticipated, not discussed constantly nor on the radar.

These events are often discussed only in very small circles, normally initiated by an individual who has a premonition/precognition about some dark event looming in the near future. The examples of dark swan warnings range thru all recorded history up to the analyst who tried to alert the SEC about the Madoff scam.

The most common of all dark swan events in the fullness of human history is the unexpected population event called a “bottleneck”.

For those of you who are not opposed to a bit of heavy science reading, there is such a discussion ongoing on this forum. You might find it interesting.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2820204/posts


26 posted on 02/21/2012 7:02:55 AM PST by James Oscar
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To: Kaslin
That would seem to make our porous borders into a high priority problem although you certainly wouldn’t realize it from the lackadaisical approach the Bush and Obama administrations have taken to securing the border.

Probably because most of the people possessing the most bitter hatred for America already live here. :)

27 posted on 02/21/2012 7:03:18 AM PST by Mr. Jeeves (CTRL-GALT-DELETE)
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To: Kaslin

Office supply cabinet into a faraday cage:
http://www.youtube.com/embed/m0ggWv_Gz4s


28 posted on 02/21/2012 7:06:01 AM PST by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working for)
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To: HChampagne

>>These five are in no way as ruinous as knowledgeable people not voting.<<

Worse still is stupid people voting.


29 posted on 02/21/2012 7:10:46 AM PST by NTHockey (Rules of engagement #1: Take no prisoners)
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To: MrB

“decommissioning power plants will.”

Now, you’re talking. THAT is a major issue with me. As we add need and decrease power plants we can find ourselves in a nasty situation where it becomes harder and harder to maintain the power grid load levels and keep them balanced. At some point it becomes impossible to keep them balanced and every time they turn on a grid section it goes down because of overload, making it impossible to keep any section up at any time.

I believe Obama and his liberal Luddite ilk are after that exact effect.


30 posted on 02/21/2012 7:18:34 AM PST by CodeToad (NO TAXATION WITHOUT REPRESENTATION!!!)
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To: Travis McGee

Black Swan *ping*. Your two cents on what might be a Black Swan in our future?


31 posted on 02/21/2012 7:20:17 AM PST by CodeToad (NO TAXATION WITHOUT REPRESENTATION!!!)
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To: CodeToad

I don’t believe they are Luddites.
They want the technology and energy use to be available, but only to the “elite” who know how to use energy prudently, not you and I or the masses.

They follow Nietzsche’s assertion that holding all men accountable to the same moral standard is detrimental to the “higher” men, and therefore detrimental to society.


32 posted on 02/21/2012 7:25:05 AM PST by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working for)
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To: James Oscar

Does Rumsfeld addressed this when he said, “There are known unknowns and there are unknown unknowns.” An unknown unknown would be Custer calling in a B-52 strike to save the 7th Cavalry. Unknown to Sitting Bull anyhow. The two nuclear bombs in Japan were an unknown unknown for most of the population of both Nations.


33 posted on 02/21/2012 7:26:10 AM PST by Portcall24
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To: Kaslin

Aren’t you the cheery one this morning!


34 posted on 02/21/2012 7:26:49 AM PST by Ditter
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To: DannyTN

“Bio Weapons - Countries without good healthcare will be hit harder “

We can’t handle 70,000 anthrax cases all at once. We’d be on a par with Guatemala or Mali by week 2 in terms of being able to care for people.

And for the first several days, people will be dropping spores in emergency rooms and clinics, from their clothes and hair, so the military will have to set up what mobile tent facilities they have in country at the time.

And that’s just anthrax, with no additives or adjuncts.


35 posted on 02/21/2012 7:27:01 AM PST by DBrow
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To: CodeToad

“I believe Obama and his liberal Luddite ilk are after that exact effect.”

You have to condition people to accept a power grid that is spotty and unreliable to get them to embrace “green” energy that is on only when the wind blows or the sun is out.


36 posted on 02/21/2012 7:33:19 AM PST by DBrow
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To: Kartographer
Disasters bring out the dumbest of the dumb.

The morning hurricane Rita hit, the wind was still blowing and gusting over 50mph. Limbs were still coming down from the trees.

A girl stopped in front of the house and asked if my electricity was back on yet.

She honestly did not have a clue that the power lines she had been driving over is how the power got to her house.

She honestly believed the power came from the post itself.

She also didn't know that gas stations had gas delivered to them. She thought it just came out of the ground.

To this day I'm still dumbfounded as to how ignorant she was and how she was even able to function at all.

37 posted on 02/21/2012 7:35:42 AM PST by IMR 4350
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To: FastCoyote

Thanks I’ll look those up.

I always thought Black Swans were unexpected events.
Those all have reasonable expectations.

Let me add;
Major earthquake (like Japan recently), causing nuclear power plant issues.
This would cripple our already dicey economy.

About the EMP vs ouside hacking; although our power grid could be taken down for a period of time by “bad guys” it would never have the same results as an EMP. (Read the book One Second After). Even the Russians have long known that, if you only have one nuke the best use for it is an EMP.


38 posted on 02/21/2012 7:40:16 AM PST by vanilla swirl (We are the Patrick Henry we have been waiting for!)
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To: IMR 4350

The girl you described undoubtedly is an Obama voter, LOL.


39 posted on 02/21/2012 7:41:46 AM PST by nascarnation (DEFEAT BARAQ 2012 DEPORT BARAQ 2013)
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To: DannyTN
"Default on Debt" - Won't happen as long as debt is dollar denominated.

Technically, true, but as the number of dollars in existence approaches infinity, the value of each individual dollar approaches zero.

EMP - hurtful, but nothing we couldn't bounce back from quickly,...

About 8 years ago, a large transformer supplying Phoenix failed; the nearest spare was somewhere in the Pacific Northwest. It was big enough it had to be transported by barge to LA, then on an ultra-heavy-duty truck from there, at about 5 mph. Overall, it tooks several weeks, and nothing else anywhere had failed.

An EMP event over the "Bos-Wash corridor", Chicago or Los Angeles would take months to recover from, even if everything went perfectly, which it never does. Millions of people would be dead, especially if it happened in winter.

Nuclear Weapons - We lost New Orleans to Katrina and barely noticed.

The only value New Orleans (the city) has is as a place to get drunk for Mardi Gras. Nobody is going to nuke New Orleans; they'll nuke a city that has actual utility beyond housing parasites. Come up with a better example.

40 posted on 02/21/2012 7:42:50 AM PST by DuncanWaring (The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
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To: CodeToad; Travis McGee

He’d probably say “New Madrid Earthquake” (again).

Ironically, there was a small one earlier today.


41 posted on 02/21/2012 7:47:38 AM PST by DuncanWaring (The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
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To: nascarnation

You got that right.

She also thought that the generators people had had been given to them by the power co. because they were “rich”. The power co. didn’t give the poor people generators.

She also thought that there was 3 different prices for gas because it was rich peoples gas, middle peoples gas, and poor peoples gas. She had seen rich people buying poor peoples gas.

The only reason I talked to that idiot as long as I did was simply for the amusement value.


42 posted on 02/21/2012 7:53:57 AM PST by IMR 4350
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43 posted on 02/21/2012 7:57:06 AM PST by TheOldLady (FReepmail me to get ON or OFF the ZOT LIGHTNING ping list)
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To: IMR 4350

Apparently it had never dawned on her that those big trucks that pull up and park around the periphery now and again were delivering rather than picking-up.


44 posted on 02/21/2012 7:59:46 AM PST by DuncanWaring (The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
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To: CodeToad

This is “sort of” a novel black swan. In the space of one hour, something gobbles up the entire internet. Just makes it go haywire, FUBAR, you can’t get on anywhere to even discuss what the hell just happened? Then the infrastructure systems that tie into the net start going haywire, and at the end of the day, power is going out in cascades, water systems don’t work, planes can’t fly....

And nobody even knows what the hell caused it. It just “is.”


45 posted on 02/21/2012 8:10:37 AM PST by Travis McGee (www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: James Oscar

the internet destroying old media was a black swan.

the tea party movement was a black swan.

Prediction implies control.

The internet coupling with the tea party is a black swan because the kleptocrats could not control the situation.


46 posted on 02/21/2012 8:16:48 AM PST by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: DuncanWaring

I laughed about how stupid she was at the time, but as I thought about it she was just plain scary stupid and there are millions more just like her.


47 posted on 02/21/2012 8:16:57 AM PST by IMR 4350
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To: Kaslin

There was a 4.0 quake this morning in Missouri near the New Madrid fault line. A 9.5 quake along the New Madrid fault line with a simultaneous eruption of the Yellowstone Caldera would kill around 90% of America’s population.


48 posted on 02/21/2012 8:17:51 AM PST by SVTCobra03 (You can never have enough friends, horsepower or ammunition.)
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To: IMR 4350

In her mind:

1. Electrical power comes from a wooden stick
2. Gasoline comes from the ground.
3. Money comes from the government.


49 posted on 02/21/2012 8:19:18 AM PST by DuncanWaring (The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
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To: Portcall24
“Does Rumsfeld addressed this when he said, “There are known unknowns and there are unknown unknowns.” An unknown unknown would be Custer calling in a B-52 strike to save the 7th Cavalry. Unknown to Sitting Bull anyhow. The two nuclear bombs in Japan were an unknown unknown for most of the population of both Nations.”


No and Yes.

The first scenario of Custer would be in the realm of science fiction - not a black swan.

The two atomic bombs on Japan are indeed a black swan for Japan - and you cite an excellent example.

The knowledge of the bomb was held in a very tight circle - and in the realm of real science.

I write about real science and particularly the edge of new science. (i.e. thus my article about Mother Abigail transforming the media by hijacking Free Republic in 2003)

Her predictions on SARS and Ebola and now her prediction about “The Coming Wave”, are real science. They poke around at the edge of knowledge and understanding, but are rock solid in their basis of fact.

That is a black swan.

50 posted on 02/21/2012 8:29:55 AM PST by James Oscar
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