The first scenario of Custer would be in the realm of science fiction - not a black swan.
The two atomic bombs on Japan are indeed a black swan for Japan - and you cite an excellent example.
The knowledge of the bomb was held in a very tight circle - and in the realm of real science.
I write about real science and particularly the edge of new science. (i.e. thus my article about Mother Abigail transforming the media by hijacking Free Republic in 2003)
Her predictions on SARS and Ebola and now her prediction about “The Coming Wave”, are real science. They poke around at the edge of knowledge and understanding, but are rock solid in their basis of fact.
That is a black swan.
What? What happened with that? I don't remember that.
“Mother Abigail “
I had completely forgotten about Mother Abigail. Those were some truly fascinating threads. Whatever happened to her?