Skip to comments.U.S. does not believe Iran is trying to build nuclear bomb
Posted on 02/24/2012 7:35:14 AM PST by gandalftb
U.S. intelligence agencies don't believe Iran is actively trying to build an atomic bomb.
A highly classified U.S. intelligence assessment circulated to policymakers early last year largely affirms that view, originally made in 2007. Both reports, known as national intelligence estimates, conclude that Tehran halted efforts to develop and build a nuclear warhead in 2003.
The most recent report, which represents the consensus of 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, indicates that Iran is pursuing research that could put it in a position to build a weapon, but that it has not sought to do so.
Senior U.S. officials say Israel does not dispute the basic intelligence or analysis.
It is not known precisely what other technical hurdles Iran would have to overcome, but Albright and many other experts believe that if it decides to proceed, the country has the scientific knowledge to design and build a crude working bomb in as little as a year. It would take as long as three years, Albright estimated, for Iran to build a warhead small enough to fit on a ballistic missile.
Albright said a push by Iran to build a nuclear weapon probably would be detected.
(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...
U-235 needs to be at least 90% to reach a critical mass explosion, however, 20% and beyond is considered weapons grade as there is no peaceful purpose.
Iran first achieved 20% in trace amounts two years ago and has been accumulating only 20% since and has done legally and is inspected and in compliance.
They can use the 20% for fuel rods, medical radiation, and in their research reactor (that we built for them).
Problem: If the Iranians can secretly divert some 20% into a secret enrichment facility, they could enrich to 90% quite easily and quickly.
Response: U-235 always decays into lead. As it does so it gives off a few, very powerful gamma rays that pass through our planet. We have some extremely sensitive detectors around our planet that detect gamma rays. By careful calculation we can eventually see the source of those rays and haven't seen any from Iran that indicate over 20% enrichment.
Iranian leaders know that once they produce 90% and have a bomb program, they could lose control of that program to hotheads in the Revolutionary Guards and poof, the Middle East and Iran go up in smoke.
That is the dichotomy in Iran. Ayatollahs - be careful what you wish for, Dajjal is waiting.
Why would Israeli intelligence want to confide in Barry's intelligence services? Nothing good could come of it.
It does not make any difference what the US thinks.
Israel knows that her very existence is at stake. She absolutely cannot and will not allow Iran to become a nuclear power.
The Israelis will destroy Iranian nuclear capabilities. In particular, the Bushehr (west-central Iran) reactor will be destroyed.
It is quite possible this is another Iraq situation where they are all bluster in order to stave off some perceived threat from their enemies.
OK, Have all of the intelligence officials who believe there is no threat to a nuclear weapon from Iran sign the document. Have them agree to be executed by firing squad if they are wrong. Simple enough. Problem solved. Let’s see how many still so believe.
Iranians can be extremely clever at cheating. I can attest to that, having played a lot of poker with them, LOL.
What they do is to make sure that every potentially controversial move has a dual use so that they can deny they have wicked intentions.
For example, they enrich to 20%, but as they say, only for permissible legal purposes, medical research... Even though we know there is no point having so much 20% around, especially when we offered to give them all the 20% they need for free, for research. Dual use.
Why is Iran building rockets that can fly thousands of miles? They say the rockets are for satellites. Same rocket can carry a nuke. It only matters where you point them. Dual use.
Why so much testing and research at Parchin with very high velocity explosives (that we can hear detonating and could be used to light off an atomic bomb)? They say, gee it’s hot here in Iran and we are tunneling and plan to use those explosives to cut through rock. Dual use.
Throwing a net over Iranians is very hard to do. They know that we would have a hard time justifying war, having been embarrassed by the lack of Saddam’s WMDs.
The worlds most lethal shell game.
“Why would Israeli intelligence want to confide in Barry’s intelligence services?”
Because we have significant passive and active satellite and airborne electronic eavesdropping that Israel does not begin to have.
OBAMA says this, not the intel community. they KNOW Iran is building a bomb.
Obama will never say anything negative about Muslims as he isone.
Sadly, the last 15 years have taught us that the US intelligence community ain’t all that it’s cracked up to be.
“Senior U.S. officials say Israel does not dispute the basic intelligence or analysis.”
What a horrible liberal spin.
Israel is convinced of the contrary.
You know, Israel possesses its own sources of information and satellite over Iran. They don’t have to rely on Obama administration data.
Earlier this month, Israel’s military intelligence chief, Maj.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi, said that intelligence suggests Iran already has enough nuclear material to build four atomic bombs. Kochavi told the annual Herzliya Conference that if Iran decided today to build a nuclear bomb, it could do so in less than one year.
Many in Israel believe there will ultimately be no choice but to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities - just as Israel did to Iraq in 1981 and to Syria in 2007 - but know that such a move will carry a heavy price tag.
In a document published by Iran’s Alef news agency, the chief strategist of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Alireza Forghani, argued that “in the name of Allah, Iran must attack Israel by 2014. All our troubles are due to Israel!”
AND IT IS PRECISELY AT THIS CRUCIAL MOMENT that the US, Britain and other European powers are showing themselves most apathetic and incapable of facing down the Iranian threat.
“Bushehr (west-central Iran) reactor will be destroyed.”
Hmmm, do you think the 1,200 Russians that live and work at Bushehr will get a heads up to run for their lives first? Putin and Russia might get a little upset.
Perhaps we could pick better,...military...., targets?
That is certainly a component, self protection. I think a bigger component is showing the muslim world that Shiism is more powerful Sunnism.
Iran wants religious and political leadership of the muslim world.
..........and when a religious fanatic says he has a moral obligation to bring abut the end of the world and to wipe our ally off the map, he’s probably lying. Nothing to see here. Move along.
these estimates come from the same agency analysts who assured Presidents Clinton and Bush43 that Iraq WAS trying to build a bomb
“The US knows Iran is working on a nuclear weapon.”
How do we prove it? Every task towards building a nuke, the Iranians can cleverly mask as having some legitimate purpose.
You find the absolute bomb-making proof and and the B-52s are on the way.
LOL! If you want to identify Iran’s “military” targets, look for the Russian advisors
Did I not read somewhere Iran was doing work on an explosive lens which is used only in an implosion type bomb??
and what percentage enrichment is necessary for a “dirty bomb”?
(Hint, 20% is plenty....)
Obama is manipulating the NIE to justify his inaction.
The statement “The U.S. does not believe...” is pure poicy propaganda.
It derives from a prosecutorial mindset “you can not prove...”, misapplied to achieve Obama’s objective.
The US government and our non-intelligent services are engaged in magical thinking if they say Iran is not working on an A-bomb or H-bomb. With the bomb, Iran’s radical Muslim leaders know they are invulnerable and can make trouble everywhere. They don’t fear China or Russia and know the USA is too wimpy to head them off.