I'm not optimistic.
If Romney is the nominee, a large number of conservatives will stay home or vote for a third-party candidate.
If Santorum is the nominee, the independents will vote for Obama to get free condoms and birth control pills and to prevent a reimposition of the Spanish Inquisition.
If Gingrich is the nominee, by November the public will know his marital history better than the Pledge of Allegiance.
A billion dollar campaign fund for Obama, plus the fervent support of the mainstream media, will do wonders. Look at the debates so far...every time it's liberal journalists asking questions designed to stir up dissension and animosities among Republicans, and nothing that might encourage criticism of Obama.
Well, I would say that all your negative scenarios will only play out with a TRULY recovering economy.
If gas really does go to $5- (possible, but I really hope not, I’m in NJ and our gas is always cheaper) and Odumbo is still saying “let’s make fuel out of pond scum” and unemployment is still high (likely) and housing is still in the crapper and the cost of food continues to creep higher (think how THAT would be being covered if the guy in the WH was a republican!)....
What I’m thinking is most people are going to say “the heck with it, he had his chance” and they are also going to figure that the Gingrich divorces, the Romney ennui, and even the Santorum religiosity aren’t enough to keep them from giving the “other guy” a chance.
I think Abe Lincoln said it best: you can’t fool ALL of the people ALL of the time.
Check that link about his fund raising prowess this go round, especially comment# 11. Why do you think Obama has said that superPAC donations on his behalf are now acceptble? The mainstream media gets less and less attention. Watch Fast and Furious become a campaign issue. The head of the RNC said it will be.
One might add the danger of an October surprise. There might be one percolating now in the Straits of Hormuz affording Obama the option to pull the trigger at any time to jigger the poll numbers to his advantage. Americans instinctively rally to the flag and to their president at times of crisis and Iran offers Obama a ready-made crisis to exploit virtually whenever he wants to, likely just before the election.
Of course, if there is action around the Straits of Hormuz, whether to knockout Iran's nuclear program or simply some sort of scuffle, the price of gasoline will go straight through the overhead so Obama has to be a little bit careful of the blowback.
What we are really talking about is the institutionalization of leftism in America. Every serious institution in America is succumbing to infiltration by the left. We complain about the impact of the media on our elections but that is just one institution that has been co-opted. It applies to our churches, our eleemosynary institutions, our educational institutions, the Girl Scouts for God sake, and (gasp) even the military. So when a Republican confronts Jimmy Carter or Barack Obama, he has a good chance of winning but only because the rats have overreached. Against a typical opponent, the forces arrayed against the conservative are nearly insuperable and they are getting more formidable every day.
The truth is that the media is only reflecting the cultural, intellectual, and moral disintegration of the country.
To make the analysis even more complicated, the election might well turn on some bizarre incident that no one now can predict, a "Macaca" moment if you will. The media will try to contrive such a moment against the Republican but fate might also play a trick against Obama. For example, he might just become the " pond scum president." In any event, these events tend to drive the electorate against its conservative instincts toward the left.
When we conservatives decry the influence of Rinos on the Republican Party we might consider the ecology in which they breed and thrive.
Newt’s baggage has been out there for a long time and has done whatever damage one could expect. Obama, on the other hand, has had his past almost perfectly concealed by Obama himself and his radical leftist cohorts. If some wealthy GOP donors were savvy, they would spend their millions for opposition research to accurately expose Obama’s shady leftist past.