Skip to comments.Republican Race's Volatility is Historic
Posted on 02/25/2012 6:03:17 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP
Calling the 2012 Republican presidential primary the most volatile for the GOP in generations isn't political hyperbole - it's empirical fact.
Since the start 2011, seven different candidates or potential contenders could claim to be the Republican race's front-runner, according to polling from Gallup. The list includes Mike Huckabee, Donald Trump, Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum. In at least one Gallup poll, each claimed at least a share of the lead in the GOP race. (snip)
Polling data supplied by Gallup dating back to 1930 shows that no other race since that time has even come close to the same level of volatility. The 1940 GOP primary produced perhaps the most shocking result, when the GOP nominated businessman Wendell Willkie when he had polled at only 3 percent nationally in April of that year. But that was the product of a late surge, not a year's worth of rises and collapses from potential candidates.
As my colleague Ron Brownstein has written, the GOP race has been so uneven because the party's evangelical, conservative wing has been incredibly fickle in its candidate preference. While Romney has seen steady support from the secular, more moderate faction of the party, tea party adherents and devout Christians have cycled through a coterie of options, including Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich and Santorum. The upheaval could also be driven by a news cycle that, with the advent of Twitter, is faster than ever, and the 20 presidential debates that have had a huge impact on the process.
As the race emerges from its first phase and heads toward the first truly national set of contests, Super Tuesday on March 6, many speculate it might finally be poised to end. If history is any guide, however, expect the unexpected this primary.
(Excerpt) Read more at decoded.nationaljournal.com ...
You are looking at this with Shirley Temple simplicity. Idealistically, you make it sound noble, but when human nature gets a hold on it, it is open to corruption.
That is where the real problem lies. The Supper PAC system may work if there were fail safe mechanisms in place that would set ethics rules and limitations in place, but as they stand now, they are ripe for dishonest intentions.
"Go AWAY, Romney!"3/13/12 Gone AWAY, Romney! Fixed it for ya!
Mitt and Rick are starting to say many of the same things Gingrich has been saying, but they don't have the principles of heart (Mitt) and mind (Rick) to be convincing.
This is why those watching closely don't have confidence in anyone but Newt.
Usually when that happens you pick a candidate and stick with that candidate.
If that hasn't happened, you can't really blame some elite for it.
Limbaugh and Levin are watching extremely closely and are fine with Santorum and even Newt.
As am I.
That was a very good observation. God does seem to favor sinners saved by Grace over Pharisees.
Did you hear that Pat Robertson told him who the next President would be and it wasn’t Obama? This occurred the day after the Iowa caucus. I wondered if he was alluding to Santorum or Romney, since it took awhile to sort that mess out. Of course, he refused to give a name.
I am not looking at this with Shirley Temple simplicity at all. Quite the opposite.
You are making a few miscalculations here IMO. While you correctly state that Super PACs were formed to get around CFR - you act like that’s a problem - which means that CFR was a good thing if only it had succeeded.
CFR was evil and naive in its attempt. The notion that you can separate power from money is simply laughable. It’s never been done in world history.
You also incorrectly state that CFR and Super PACS are what allowed Soros to pump money in. That’s not correct. Soros has been pumping money in for years before CFR and has an endless maize of companies and foundations all over the world and he can secretly inject his money in regardless of what laws are written.
Let me repeat that, Soros can pump his money in regardless of what laws are written, because it is simply not possible to ever separate money from power. Never going to happen.
As the benefactor of Newts super pac said, at least this way, you know who I am and what I stand for and its all open and honest. And that’s the beauty of super pacs. They are transparent.
Without Super PACS, we are left with candidates, networks, and George Soros. Sorry, that’s the way it is.
Empirical Fact, huh? Did someone resurrect Nietzsche? Funny thing about empirical facts, like global warming and flat earth communists.. they are usually wrong, or at least over -emphasized. Run on jobs, economy, opportunity and freedom or run home.
LOL! When was Pat Robertson right about anything in politics!?
In fact, when was Robertson right about much of anything?
Agreed, and I would add they also don't have A: the talent B: the sense of history C: the knowledge of the constitution nor D: the record of success in the past.
You can't fake talent and ability and intelligence and past success. You just cannot do it.
Oh my, the “p” word. I used that word in an earlier Santorum thread and boy did it ever stir up the sweater vest crowd. Something about being over the target and catching flak comes to mind.
“fickle base bound to one thin concept of moral restraint....candidate they almost worship, has no clue how to stop..disaster from happening.”
“Ain’t it the Truth, Ain’t it the Truuuth!?”, if I may quote the Lion from Oz. Of course, by his own estimation, their candidate has “Courage”, like said Lion. Not to mention, I’m sure he would have added, if not limited to “one word”... humility, modesty....not so much.
How egotisitcal and shallow does a person have to be to make such a statement about themselves?!
Sorry, that was supposed to be, Pat Robertson said God told him who the next Presient would be...
They haven't figured out yet that the GOP no longer belongs to them, and it is time for them to form that party of warm-spit "moderates" that everyone is clamoring for.
Sorry, that was supposed to be, Pat Robertson said God told him who the next President would be... cannot type.. sheesh!
I knew what you meant. :)
Agreed. The fact that he made such a statement following Iowa, actually gave me hope, given Pat’s record.
I think Rick is very similar to GWB. GWB has a conservative core, but is not an intellectual conservative, evidenced by his failure to successfully push for needed government spending cuts. Rick’s record demonstrates he is also not an intellectual conservative based on his record (though far superior to Mitt or McCain as is GWB).
Mitt and McCain often present conservative ideas intellectually, but do not have the core to be consistent in adhering to the ideas. They are on Ships named conservative without a rudder in the water, destined to be pushed where ever the wind is blowing.
Rick and GWB’s ships have rudders in the water (much preferable to not having a rudder), but because of their lack of conservative intelligence are confused how to navigate through the rocky waters of modern politics.
Newt demonstrates consistently that he has the principles of heart (conservative core) and mind (conservative intellectual) that is required to steer the ship on the right course despite the elitist wind of resistance.
Don Rumsfeld, similar to Gingrich, has core and intellectual conservatism. Love that guy!
Reagan was able to use his core conservatism, coupled with William F. Buckley’s intellectual conservatism to have many successes. Reagan recognized talent (including Newt’s) better than any other president, and capitalized on it.
Ford/Dole/McConnell/Cheney, intellectual conservative, somewhat lacking in core (not as lacking as Mitt and McCain).
Santorum/GWB/Fred Thompson core conservatives, lacking intellectual.
I guess the one upside is at least each GOP candidate will have succeeded in convincing voters why the others are unfit for the Presidency. Downside is they`re enabling Obama to sail to re-election essentially uncontested. The GOPe seems fine with that.
Just sit back and watch the mess unfold for your candidate if this insanity continues and he actually does win the nomination.