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Does Romney really have a lead over Santorum in Michigan? (Short answer: No)
02/25/2012 | Brices Crossroads

Posted on 02/25/2012 9:27:36 AM PST by Brices Crossroads

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1 posted on 02/25/2012 9:27:40 AM PST by Brices Crossroads
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To: Antoninus; Lazlo in PA; parksstp

Ping!


2 posted on 02/25/2012 9:28:54 AM PST by Brices Crossroads
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To: Brices Crossroads

Dear Father I hope he doesn’t.

Wanna kill Conservatism? Vote Romney.


3 posted on 02/25/2012 9:32:22 AM PST by RIghtwardHo
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To: Brices Crossroads

The bottom line on Romney’s alleged 1.6% lead over Santorum is that it is likely a deficit, perhaps a substantial one.
***Maybe Romney will rest on his laurels with his supposed lead and take it easy.


4 posted on 02/25/2012 9:35:48 AM PST by Kevmo (If you can define a man by the depravity of his enemies, Rick Santorum must be a noble soul indeed.)
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To: Brices Crossroads

Thanks BC. Just the kind of update I was hoping for. Will Michigan Freepers post about what you are sensing, seeing or hearing for the rest of us who aren’t there?

I was going to make the seven hour drive to Detroit but I’m afraid I’ll lose my temper and be carried off by the riot police for hitting a Mitt supporter or two over the head with my Santorum yard sign.My six grandchildren might be embarrassed to see me on CBS.

Um, come to think of it, they’d be proud(and think it was normal for me) but who would take care of my labrador whilst I was in jail?


5 posted on 02/25/2012 9:36:20 AM PST by Mountain Mary (Michigan patriots, ie Newt and Rick supporters, UNITE!)
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To: Brices Crossroads

Our next three contests will go, imho..

Michigan: Santorum by 3

Baja Utah (AZ): Romney by 9

Washington State: Santorum by 10


6 posted on 02/25/2012 9:37:47 AM PST by CainConservative (Santorum/Huck 2012 w/ Newt, Cain, Palin, Bach, Parker, Watts, Duncan, & Petraeus in the Cabinet)
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To: Brices Crossroads
Being in Michigan, I can see and hear the scorched earth campaign Romney is running every day. Negative radio ads, constant and negative robocalls, and likely a ton of TV ads that are negative (I only watch TV, having recorded anything I watch so I don't have to watch ads, but I am presuming he is scorching the earth there as well).

I can't believe it isn't having an effect, most people are not as savvy at finding the truth as FR participants are.

We shall see.

7 posted on 02/25/2012 9:38:25 AM PST by Lakeshark (NbIttoalbl,cRwIdtaa)
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To: Mountain Mary

Mary, I honestly think these polls especially Rasmussen are push polls designed to drive down Santorum’s turnout. Actually, Michigan looks better than even for Santorum.

I wish I could get this analyis posted in Michigan on conservative websites and facebook pages and distributed to Santorum’s troops so they know they are winning and need to keep the pressure on.


8 posted on 02/25/2012 9:43:13 AM PST by Brices Crossroads
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To: Brices Crossroads
Today's Intrade has an 80 percent chance for Romney to take Michigan.

A week ago Santorum had the edge. The debate this week didn't do Santorum any favors.

Mitt Romney to win the 2012 Michigan Primary

80.9%
CHANCE
Last prediction was: $8.09 / share
Today's Change: +$0.09 (+1.1%)

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=756493

9 posted on 02/25/2012 9:46:21 AM PST by Allon
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To: Brices Crossroads

Your observation about the difficulty (if not impossibility) of choosing samples in open-primary states is very good.


10 posted on 02/25/2012 9:47:28 AM PST by BfloGuy (The final outcome of the credit expansion is general impoverishment.)
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To: Brices Crossroads

It would seem that Romney’s failure to meet the polling expectations is due to a lack of enthusiasm on the part of his voters.

He isn’t a very exciting guy, and the old message of reaching across the aisle and doing the politically expedient thing isn’t a very motivating reason to go out and cast for him.


11 posted on 02/25/2012 9:48:27 AM PST by I_Like_Spam
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To: Lakeshark

Don’t count Santorum or Gingrich out just yet. The speech that Romney gave yesterday was far from a barn burner. Poor fellow, has no conviction, no fire in the belly, and, is boring to boot. I call him aptly, John McCain #2. And....I really dislike McCain for the whimp he was in 2008 when he had the opportunity to rip the political heart out of Obama because of Rev. Jeremiah Wright, and did nothing about it, other then to tell us what a good, decent man, anti-American Obama was. Folks in Michigan and Arizona, you have an opportunity to shine for freedom and your country. Vote for either Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich this coming Tuesday!!! Believe me, Romney is not the one!!!


12 posted on 02/25/2012 9:49:19 AM PST by JLAGRAYFOX (My only objective is defeat and destroy POTUS Obama & his Democrat Party, politically!!!)
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To: Lakeshark

The problem with Romney’s schtick is that people have seen it for so long. His lies and attacks. They are sick of it and of him. They know he packed the last debate with his henchmen to boo. And they know that he and Rue Paul have entered into a Faustian pact. And more to the point they know he is a liberal elitist who put across Romney Care gay marriage. They also know he supported the WallStreet bailout for Goldman Sachs, but told Detroit (which gave him his start) to drop dead. He is a disloyal weasel.

Add this to the fact that they just don’t like the little effeminate preppy.

No conservative believes that Rick Santorum is not much more conservative than Romney. And the blue collar Democrats in Macomb county can’t wait to get out and vote against Romney. I just don’t see how Romney gets enough of a turnout in MI to win.


13 posted on 02/25/2012 9:54:09 AM PST by Brices Crossroads
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To: Brices Crossroads

Not only that but the Democrats own “operation” chaos may help Santorum as well..

It will bite them in *ss in the end, when Santorum beats the one, but for now I’ll accept their help in defeating a RINO!


14 posted on 02/25/2012 9:55:09 AM PST by JSDude1
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To: I_Like_Spam

“It would seem that Romney’s failure to meet the polling expectations is due to a lack of enthusiasm on the part of his voters.
He isn’t a very exciting guy, and the old message of reaching across the aisle and doing the politically expedient thing isn’t a very motivating reason to go out and cast for him.”

So what you are saying is the Republican voters are just like RAT voters. They are a bunch of non-thinking sheep who expect the party “leaders” to tell them how to vote.


15 posted on 02/25/2012 9:59:50 AM PST by vette6387
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To: Brices Crossroads

I have the ear of some staffers/advisors. Please send me all you have to forward.
I just wrote to suggest that they consider Newt a friend and pull all negative ads about him. Think Operation Chaos.

I hope your analysis is correct Brice.


16 posted on 02/25/2012 10:02:49 AM PST by Mountain Mary (Michigan patriots, ie Newt and Rick supporters, UNITE!)
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To: Brices Crossroads
I'm telling you, his scorched earth tactic is working, the polls aren't lying. Santorum has gone from a shoe-in to a virtual tie in a week here. It's why both Newt and Santorum have to survive until the convention, because once Romney takes out one of them, the other would be taken out much easier. Two targets make it more expensive, and less likely to work.
17 posted on 02/25/2012 10:03:37 AM PST by Lakeshark (NbIttoalbl,cRwIdtaa)
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To: Brices Crossroads

oh and Rasmussen is a Democrat.


18 posted on 02/25/2012 10:03:47 AM PST by Mountain Mary (Michigan patriots, ie Newt and Rick supporters, UNITE!)
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To: JSDude1

The Michigan Democrat Party encourages corssover voting as a way (they think) to weaken the one they perceive as the frontrunner. They did it to George Bush in 2000 and he lost to McCain there. They did it to Reagan in 1980 and he lost to Bush the in 1980.

Last time, the GOP (led buy Rush) did it to Obamam and Hillary won there.

Plus there will be a lot of Michigan blue collar Democrats who just can’t stand Romney, because he is a two faced liar and a carpet bagger.


19 posted on 02/25/2012 10:04:44 AM PST by Brices Crossroads
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To: Allon

Intrade=Useless indicator


20 posted on 02/25/2012 10:04:54 AM PST by Mountain Mary (Michigan patriots, ie Newt and Rick supporters, UNITE!)
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