Skip to comments.GALLUP DAILY: GOP Ballot Tracking (Santorum 31, Romney 30, Gingrich 16; End of the Santorum Surge?)
Posted on 02/25/2012 10:57:49 AM PST by BCrago66
Look at the chart at the bottom of the page:
Santorum's 10 point over Romney lead has been cut down to a 1 point lead...in just 4 days. Unfortunately for Gingrich supporters (such as myself), Newt has stabilized at 16, and it look like Romney, not Newt, has been the chief beneficiary of Santorum's recent polling dive.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Yes I expect to see Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas to go along with Georgia for Newt.
For all interesting, live stream to California GOP Convention where Gingrich is scheduled to speak right now (he’s running a bit late.)
It makes sense to me because I’ve studied the voting Demographics.
Tell me in a 1 on 1, how Newt beats Romney outside the South in states with large Senior, Hispanic, and female populations, the same 3 Demographics that Romney obliterated Newt with in NH, FL, and NV?
Additionally, please tell me how Newt gets to 270 Electoral Votes? I’ve studied the voting Demographics over a dozen states (mostly battlegrounds). You wanna go county by county, we can do that. Of the 12 Battlegrounds excluding OH, FL, VA, NC, and IN which is essentially must wins for Republicans to win, tell me where that last state comes from (NH, PA, MI, WI, IA, NM, CO, NV).
Is Newt going to win NH? Doubt it. In PA, sure he’ll run higher margins than McCain in Lancaster, York, and the other conservative parts of the state, but Newt will NOT carry Delware, Berks, Bucks, Montgomery, and the surrounding Philadelphia suburbs, which will hinder any chances at winning the state. Newt has shown no strength in the Midwest or in CO, and Tancredo hammered Newt on his immigration stance. Newt has been crushed by Hispanics in NM and NV where even a Rubio might not even make a difference.
As for Santorum, except for NH, he’s got excellent chances to sweep ALL of those states. PA, MI,WI,IA and the entire midwest might actually swing red. He has the strong backing of CO’s most popular politician, and he is not toxic which the groups that have been turned off by Newt (Seniors, Hispanics, Women).
But what do I know? We’ve heard after all that the Election this year will be a phone-in after the debates to choose an American President. /sarc
Huntsman and Perry must be kicking themselves for leaving this thing a week or two early...
For all interested, that is (not interesting); I seem to be making a lot of grammatical mistakes today.
I wonderr what the absentee to booth
Voting ratio is.
No, Newt was and still is their best hope.
Their tired of having their candidate shot down not just by the MSM but by their own conservative people. Its turning them off and there beginning to capitulate.
Now you know how Newt supporters feel. No one was more hammered by the so-called conservative media and establishment more than him.
We Newt supporters tried to tell everybody that if they backed off of Newt and went to Rick instead after Florida, they would hand the election to Romney. We pointed to what happened with Huckabee in 2008 splitting the conservative vote. The conservative vote can not afford to be divided against Romney in this primary if we are to win. We tried to tell everyone that Santorum only looked like a better alternative to some because he hadn't been vetted and tested under fire like Newt had. We said that the best thing that could happen for conservatives was for Rick to drop out of the race and let the votes coalesce around Newt. People didn't listen. They let a month's worth of media, money and momentum go to Rick instead of Newt, just setting him up for a big fall once Romney unleashed his attack machine.
It is the Rick supporters (in addition to the Romney supporters of course) who will be responsible for handing this election to Romney if that's what happens. The Newt supporters have been right on track and on the path to victory all along. They are backing the candidate who has been battle-tested and proven his resiliency and ability to succeed on a large scale on the national level throughout his career. There's precious little time for support to come back to Newt now, but that HAS to happen for Romney to be defeated. Newt has been showing again in the debate and in an ongoing string of fantastic speeches and policy proposals that he is still the heavyweight in the room and I hope it starts resonating with people.
If you’re not willing to say that a sinner who has repented, reformed and changed their ways is just as moral as someone who has never sinned in their entire life, then you are not following the teachings of Jesus Christ. In fact, you can argue the Bible says those reformed people are even more worthy of the kingdom of Heaven than those who always led moral lives.
Well, try to "analyze" a way for Newt to win because now that Specter has blown Santorum's bullshit to high heaven, he's dead meat.
Romney leads Santorum 47% to 26% among women...
Herein lies the crux of the problem for both Newt and Santorum. Contrary to what some have said, Newt's problems with women voters have nothing to do with his marital history. The problem for both Newt and Rick with women is that women even in the Republican party are heavily going for Romney, even while men are going heavily against him. I have yet to see polling or interviews which even attempt to explain this gender gap. I can only speculate that it's because a lot of even Republican women don't like conservative views, they just plain don't understand the issues, or they are voting solely on looks (but that is less of a factor with Romney compared to Santorum).
Either that, or get used to praying in the direction of the Vatican. But Secular America will not let it get past the GOP Convention. Religious purity is about as popular as an IRS Audit these days.
You kept saying Santorum supporters like to positively spin. Well Im a supporter, but as you can tell, Im not spinning. This whole process has made me bitter, angry, and turned me off to the Election. After I felt like the voters spit on me (military) in 2008, I thought there was no doubt that we would be able to correct that great injustice. Now, I just dont even give a d@mn anymore. Why bother?
I was a Perry guy. He and his supporters were lied about, name-called, and made fun of by a group of anti-Perry trolls up to the point where he dropped out. After that, it was all grace and “Thanks Governor Perry” from those hypocrites.
Guess who those guys mostly support now?
I’ll vote 3rd party or not at all. Why bother.
What are you talking about? Like most Newt bashers, you are posting totally false statements. The chart clearly shows that both Newt and Romney have risen as Santorum has dropped. Based on what do you expect Santorum to reverse this trend? The public got their first good look at him after a meteoric rise and now he’s starting a meteoric fall. The argument that Newt was not electable was not compelling or convincing at all, not for the guy who led Republicans to win the House after 40 years of being out and who increased turnout both in 1994 and this year in South Carolina by huge margins. But the argument that Santorum is not electable IS compelling, based on his Senate loss and the fact that the media can paint him as a single-issue candidate in the general election. Newt is perceived as a broad-based conservative on all issues, not just on religious-themed issues.
I won’t argue that it looks like Romney is well on track to winning the primary at this point. He’s going to win Michigan and Arizona. Santorum’s disastrous debate performance sealed that deal. And those wins will have the RINO media arguing Mitt is inevitable again, as if they ever really stopped. Newt has proven he has the ability to rise in the polls based on skill, policy matters and natural appeal, not based on luck or winning by default after the other candidates smeared each other and ignored him. But women voters are determined to hand this thing to Romney and I don’t see Newt or Rick having anything close to a message that’s going to change that trend.
At this point, Mitt is the likely winner of the primary, followed by Newt, with Santorum a distant third. It is STILL likely however that Mitt wins without a plurality of delegates and it will have to be decided at the convention. Our only chance then will be for Newt + Rick to have more delegates than Mitt + Paul, which is still possible. But it will be a disaster if Newt + Rick splitting the votes gives Romney future winner-take-all states. That is where Newt + Rick will have a difficult choice of having one of them drop out.
It’s complete nonsense for you to base your demographic analysis off of Florida. Why don’t you look at South Carolina instead?
Jesus’ message was not to judge our fellow human beings, to let he who is without sin cast the first stone. If you owned millions of dollars in stock in Apple, would you insist they hire the most “squeaky clean” person as their CEO, or the guy who had the most creative ideas and the best business plan for making the company profitable? We don’t have the LUXURY of voting on personality with the economic and cultural crisis that our country is in now. We need someone who has the intelligence, the skill, the insight, the knowledge, the experience, the boldness, the toughness, and the conservative policy agenda to make things right. That is the only basis on which we should be picking a candidate.
Voting in a “nice guy” is probably the opposite of what we should be doing in an environment with as many vicious domestic enemies as there are vicious foreign enemies. We need a “tough guy” and the reality is that tough guys are generally not the purest and most moral people throughout their lives, because they can be a bit arrogant at times. But we need someone like that to be a leader who will be arrogant enough to not capitulate to our ruthless enemies domestic and abroad.
This is the biggest load of cr@p I’ve ever read. Are you actually try to pin the blame of a potential Romney nomination on the shoulders of the Santorum supporters? Let me have what you’re smoking because I’ve been feeling depressed for days watching the race go down the tubes.
This is what you hardcore Newt supporters don’t get. You don’t understand the electorate and you don’t understand the real factors that win elections. In a 1 on 1 of Romney vrs Newt, Newt gets crushed. That’s a fact. He can’t win Seniors, Hispanics, or females. Where does he win outside the South?
The other problem with Newt is that he lacks two factors that were important to both Bachmann, Cain, Perry, and even Reagan supporters: TRUST and LIKEABILITY. Santorum’s got warts, but guess what? Generally conservatives TRUST Santorum more than they trust Gingrich. They also give him higher favorability ratings. It’s not enough to just speak conservatism. Go back to Reagan’s two landslides. Conservatism may have won Reagan those elections, but TRUST and LIKEABILITY gave him his landslides.
Newt’s NOT going to make a comeback. You clearly see this in the polls. Santorum is dropping, but Gingrich isn’t benefitting because many of Santorum’s supporters don’t see Gingrich as a viable alternative to Mitt Romney. It’s that simple.
Despite the completely unnatural heights to which NG has been raised up on FR, there are posts upon posts in the archives denouncing Gingrich as a RINO, Establishment Republcian (grouped in with Mitt and Rudy), and a “genuine phony”. NOTHING has changed except the fear and panic among people here to stop Romney even if it means compromising their principles and having a willing suspension of disbelief, which is precisely what many Newt supporters have done.
I’ve watched Newt for a long time and I know the game he plays. For every brilliant, articulate statement Newt makes for something, you can usually find a brilliant, articulate statement Newt makes against the same thing! This isn’t by accident, it’s by design. He’s a master at developing the “technically correct” answer which gives him cover to chose the statement in his past that most reflects what he thinks the voters want.
The Payroll Tax debate. TARP. Climate Change. Gay Marriage. Right-Wing Social Engineering. Big Tent Republicanism. Tea Party Conservatism. Mandates., etc, etc, etc. You can find a statement at one point or another of Newt arguing both FOR and AGAINST these issues. With a system like this, it’s hard to be proven wrong when you’ve taken every side. With Mitt Romney, we call this kind of thinking: flip-flopping, but with Newt, we call it a “superior oration”.
I’m sorry, I don’t buy it. I think Newt’s insincere and a complete opportunist who cannot be Trusted. Many Santorum supporters, who were previously on board with Bachmann, Cain, and Perry, feel the same way, which is why there will be no Newt comeback. Abscence of Trust is the biggest disfunction of a working team.
You could ask yourself what some Santorum supporters see in both he and Romney that his stumbling benefits Mitt.
For me, it's easy: they're both establishment creatures.