Skip to comments.GALLUP DAILY: GOP Ballot Tracking (Santorum 31, Romney 30, Gingrich 16; End of the Santorum Surge?)
Posted on 02/25/2012 10:57:49 AM PST by BCrago66
Look at the chart at the bottom of the page:
Santorum's 10 point over Romney lead has been cut down to a 1 point lead...in just 4 days. Unfortunately for Gingrich supporters (such as myself), Newt has stabilized at 16, and it look like Romney, not Newt, has been the chief beneficiary of Santorum's recent polling dive.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Romney leads Santorum 47% to 26% among women...
Herein lies the crux of the problem for both Newt and Santorum. Contrary to what some have said, Newt's problems with women voters have nothing to do with his marital history. The problem for both Newt and Rick with women is that women even in the Republican party are heavily going for Romney, even while men are going heavily against him. I have yet to see polling or interviews which even attempt to explain this gender gap. I can only speculate that it's because a lot of even Republican women don't like conservative views, they just plain don't understand the issues, or they are voting solely on looks (but that is less of a factor with Romney compared to Santorum).
Either that, or get used to praying in the direction of the Vatican. But Secular America will not let it get past the GOP Convention. Religious purity is about as popular as an IRS Audit these days.
You kept saying Santorum supporters like to positively spin. Well Im a supporter, but as you can tell, Im not spinning. This whole process has made me bitter, angry, and turned me off to the Election. After I felt like the voters spit on me (military) in 2008, I thought there was no doubt that we would be able to correct that great injustice. Now, I just dont even give a d@mn anymore. Why bother?
I was a Perry guy. He and his supporters were lied about, name-called, and made fun of by a group of anti-Perry trolls up to the point where he dropped out. After that, it was all grace and “Thanks Governor Perry” from those hypocrites.
Guess who those guys mostly support now?
I’ll vote 3rd party or not at all. Why bother.
What are you talking about? Like most Newt bashers, you are posting totally false statements. The chart clearly shows that both Newt and Romney have risen as Santorum has dropped. Based on what do you expect Santorum to reverse this trend? The public got their first good look at him after a meteoric rise and now he’s starting a meteoric fall. The argument that Newt was not electable was not compelling or convincing at all, not for the guy who led Republicans to win the House after 40 years of being out and who increased turnout both in 1994 and this year in South Carolina by huge margins. But the argument that Santorum is not electable IS compelling, based on his Senate loss and the fact that the media can paint him as a single-issue candidate in the general election. Newt is perceived as a broad-based conservative on all issues, not just on religious-themed issues.
I won’t argue that it looks like Romney is well on track to winning the primary at this point. He’s going to win Michigan and Arizona. Santorum’s disastrous debate performance sealed that deal. And those wins will have the RINO media arguing Mitt is inevitable again, as if they ever really stopped. Newt has proven he has the ability to rise in the polls based on skill, policy matters and natural appeal, not based on luck or winning by default after the other candidates smeared each other and ignored him. But women voters are determined to hand this thing to Romney and I don’t see Newt or Rick having anything close to a message that’s going to change that trend.
At this point, Mitt is the likely winner of the primary, followed by Newt, with Santorum a distant third. It is STILL likely however that Mitt wins without a plurality of delegates and it will have to be decided at the convention. Our only chance then will be for Newt + Rick to have more delegates than Mitt + Paul, which is still possible. But it will be a disaster if Newt + Rick splitting the votes gives Romney future winner-take-all states. That is where Newt + Rick will have a difficult choice of having one of them drop out.
It’s complete nonsense for you to base your demographic analysis off of Florida. Why don’t you look at South Carolina instead?
Jesus’ message was not to judge our fellow human beings, to let he who is without sin cast the first stone. If you owned millions of dollars in stock in Apple, would you insist they hire the most “squeaky clean” person as their CEO, or the guy who had the most creative ideas and the best business plan for making the company profitable? We don’t have the LUXURY of voting on personality with the economic and cultural crisis that our country is in now. We need someone who has the intelligence, the skill, the insight, the knowledge, the experience, the boldness, the toughness, and the conservative policy agenda to make things right. That is the only basis on which we should be picking a candidate.
Voting in a “nice guy” is probably the opposite of what we should be doing in an environment with as many vicious domestic enemies as there are vicious foreign enemies. We need a “tough guy” and the reality is that tough guys are generally not the purest and most moral people throughout their lives, because they can be a bit arrogant at times. But we need someone like that to be a leader who will be arrogant enough to not capitulate to our ruthless enemies domestic and abroad.
This is the biggest load of cr@p I’ve ever read. Are you actually try to pin the blame of a potential Romney nomination on the shoulders of the Santorum supporters? Let me have what you’re smoking because I’ve been feeling depressed for days watching the race go down the tubes.
This is what you hardcore Newt supporters don’t get. You don’t understand the electorate and you don’t understand the real factors that win elections. In a 1 on 1 of Romney vrs Newt, Newt gets crushed. That’s a fact. He can’t win Seniors, Hispanics, or females. Where does he win outside the South?
The other problem with Newt is that he lacks two factors that were important to both Bachmann, Cain, Perry, and even Reagan supporters: TRUST and LIKEABILITY. Santorum’s got warts, but guess what? Generally conservatives TRUST Santorum more than they trust Gingrich. They also give him higher favorability ratings. It’s not enough to just speak conservatism. Go back to Reagan’s two landslides. Conservatism may have won Reagan those elections, but TRUST and LIKEABILITY gave him his landslides.
Newt’s NOT going to make a comeback. You clearly see this in the polls. Santorum is dropping, but Gingrich isn’t benefitting because many of Santorum’s supporters don’t see Gingrich as a viable alternative to Mitt Romney. It’s that simple.
Despite the completely unnatural heights to which NG has been raised up on FR, there are posts upon posts in the archives denouncing Gingrich as a RINO, Establishment Republcian (grouped in with Mitt and Rudy), and a “genuine phony”. NOTHING has changed except the fear and panic among people here to stop Romney even if it means compromising their principles and having a willing suspension of disbelief, which is precisely what many Newt supporters have done.
I’ve watched Newt for a long time and I know the game he plays. For every brilliant, articulate statement Newt makes for something, you can usually find a brilliant, articulate statement Newt makes against the same thing! This isn’t by accident, it’s by design. He’s a master at developing the “technically correct” answer which gives him cover to chose the statement in his past that most reflects what he thinks the voters want.
The Payroll Tax debate. TARP. Climate Change. Gay Marriage. Right-Wing Social Engineering. Big Tent Republicanism. Tea Party Conservatism. Mandates., etc, etc, etc. You can find a statement at one point or another of Newt arguing both FOR and AGAINST these issues. With a system like this, it’s hard to be proven wrong when you’ve taken every side. With Mitt Romney, we call this kind of thinking: flip-flopping, but with Newt, we call it a “superior oration”.
I’m sorry, I don’t buy it. I think Newt’s insincere and a complete opportunist who cannot be Trusted. Many Santorum supporters, who were previously on board with Bachmann, Cain, and Perry, feel the same way, which is why there will be no Newt comeback. Abscence of Trust is the biggest disfunction of a working team.
You could ask yourself what some Santorum supporters see in both he and Romney that his stumbling benefits Mitt.
For me, it's easy: they're both establishment creatures.
If you owned millions of dollars in stock in Apple, would you insist they hire the most squeaky clean person as their CEO, AND the guy who had the most creative ideas and the best business plan for making the company profitable?
That is Santorum! I am just glad that the rest of the voters feel the same as I do.
You’re kidding, right? Knock off those rose-colored glasses. All Santorum’s experienced is a shot across the bow.
There are no more debates. Ron Paul’s viral ads are watched by Ron Paul cultists exclusively. All that’s left are Romney’s ad buys. If the sheer volume of television ads is going to determine the presidency, the race is already over and the country is already dead.
Why drop out? They can collect enough delegates to matter at the convention or come to an agreement between the two to shift their delegates to the other for some shared thing. Milt is not lighting the world on fire here. He is not getting over 50% in these state match ups. Santorum is right behind him in all of them. In GA he is 3rd behind Newt and Rick. Depending how the distribution works out in some of these states, Milt and his buddy RuPaul won't be able to play their cute little game.
There should have never been that many debates and especially those that were monitored by the SRM
“Santorum voted for Sotomayor”
Big deal..25 GOP Senators voted for her, including notorious libs (/sarc/) like Thad Cochran and Orrin Hatch. She was elevated from the district court bench where she had been appointed by George Bush 41. There were no red flags about her. She was no conservative but there was nothing really radical about her at that point. She was confirmed 67-29.
Santorum’s vote didn’t change a thing.
At least they’re skipping the ridiculous MTV debate (debate #21 in 2008). That’s marginal improvement.
Anyone that trusted the incompetence, poor judgment, and appalling lack of understanding on foreign and domestic policy issues of Bachmann, Perry and Cain needs to have their head examined. The profound inadequacies of all these candidates have to be unpacked for most voters at a much earlier stage next time and we won’t even be tempted with wishful thinking. Of course it’s all Paul’s fault anyway. No crystal ball here, but given the way things are going at present if he hadn’t been a spoiler in NH, Huntsman will likely be have been our hero. The most conservative, electable and cleanest candidate amalgamated.
People that have this kind of attitude when we ARE ahead:
Hope its not too late.
Santorum is clearly tanking. All we have to do to fix this and stop Romney, is get behind Newt.
** President Newt Gingrich-”Our beloved republic deserves nothing less.”
Was thinking about negative calls and ads.
So lemme get this straight: Romnuts people barrage the airwaves and peoples voice mails with anti Rick hate mail. And the stupid, idiotic recipient, “hello?” who hasn’t yet “made up his mind’ finally succumbs to the pressure by agreeing that what they are hearing must be true because Romney says so. Checkmate! High five at Mittens hdqtrs: One drone down, only ten thousand to go!
If Mittens pulls this off in Michigan, a hate filled vendetta based on lies,distortions and more lies, bribes and back room power plays, I may give up like parksstp...at least on the Presidential race.
We Conservatives shouldn’t have to sell our souls or beat our heads against the wall trying to convince a bunch of stupid brain dead excuses for voters(some of them our own family and friends) that they are making a huge mistake by voting for a sure fire Hussein reelection card candidate, Rombo Romney.
And let’s not forget the GOP-E which is every bit an epic fail as well..and if one more of those pompous country club Rove clones posing as a party big whig tries to tell me that it will be MY fault if Romney isn’t the chosen one...and therefore, MY fault if Obama wins.
I do more in one day for the causes of Conservatism than they do in a year.
I despise these people and will never again give the RNC or one GOP affiliated organization a plug nickel or a minute of my valuable time...if Mitt Romney is their choice.
Oh and about the Tea Party “leaders”...
“Hello? Anyone home?” Deafening silence. “What’s that? You won’t endorse a Conservative because you don’t want to offend your Romney loving friends? Okay, Got it. Bye. Nice knowin’ ya. Fun while it lasted.”
The force is too great...we’re drowning here.
Save ourselves and just know that we did our best.
JediJones: Just where do you crunch the numbers to get a win for Newt to be the nominee? Just how do you see his path to the WH being a reality at this point? I like him too but Denial is Not a River in Egypt.
This is a battle to defeat Romney and victory will be obtained if and only if the Newt and Santorum camps come together for this common purpose.
You Santorum bashers should be ashamed. You are makin’ alot of noise but to what end?
And there is a Santa Claus and an Easter bunny too, isn’t there Red Steel?
We asked the Santorum people to come to Newt and stay with Newt weeks ago and they didn’t. Now they’ve given Romney everything he wanted. He has Santorum, a candidate who endorsed him and called him a conservative, now trying to base his whole race against Romney on a flip-flop on that position. It’s the exact same thing Romney would be trying to do on Romneycare in the general election. And it’s likely to be just as ineffective. The establishment and RINO pundits were uncorking the champagne as soon as Rick shot to the top of the polls and Newt fell, because they know how weak Rick is as a candidate. Now we’re seeing the unvetted Rick sink under his first volley of attack ads and media exposure, just as me and all the Newt supporters said would happen weeks ago as Rick first started moving up in the polls. Rick is a non-starter and a guaranteed loser against Romney.
The path to victory for Newt is simple and is based on what you said, the Rick and Newt camps coming together. The Rick supporters need to come to their senses and back Newt, a far stronger and more threatening candidate to either Romney or Obama, not to mention someone who has what it takes to create true conservative reform in Washington while he is President. We cannot hang this country’s future on a lightweight like Santorum. A go-along-to-get-along guy cannot reform the government the way it needs to be. The path to victory involves the polls switching quickly back in Newt’s favor, which is obviously possible since the polls have switched quickly many times before. Not to mention Adelson just have Newt’s group possible $10 million and Newt is killing it in speeches and interviews, the only one continuing to give interesting new sound bites to the media. I don’t think Rick should drop out until about April, when more states become winner-take-all and we can’t afford to risk splitting the vote and letting Romney win with a plurality above Newt and Rick. He can accumulate delegates and use them to help Newt at the convention.
Here's hoping the multi million dollar donation from Addelson helps Newt and that Newt does great in the south. Even so, I don't see Romney or Santorum able to pick up the 1,000 plus delegates they need as the Newt supporters are loyal as are the Paulbots.
Ricky better be believing in the Easter Bunny and Santa Claus.
that’s actually not true about Obama and McCain. If you look back at the polls, the debates really made little difference. Obama didn’t see any big boosts from any of them.
It’s also hard to tell because the market was collapsing by 30% over the same time frame as the debates. as well as McCain’s suspension and then support for TARP.
But I don’t really think the debates had all that much influence on the outcome. I don’t recall Obama doing all that well. Basically his entire debate strategy was “I’m not a Republican and McCain is” with a hearty helping of “I’m not Bush and McCain is”.
McCain also got in trouble in that the 1st debate was supposed to be on foreign policy which was his strength but they shifted it to domestic policy because of the economic meltdown and bailout votes. And even McCain would admit the economy wasn’t his strong suit.
basically, though, once the economy went south after Lehman collapsed the die was cast. the debates didn’t relaly matter all that much.
I’ll tell you how Newt wins. The same way Clinton and Reagan won. The economy is in bad enough shape by the election that people simply want something different. That’s the same way any Republican is going to win. Newt, Rick, Mitt, whoever.
Look back at the polls from April 1992. Bush41 had a 10 pt lead on Clinton. I’m sure many dems were saying “how will Clinton win?”. Look back at the polls from the spring of 1980. Carter had a double digit lead over Reagan. Many were probably saying “how can Reagan win?”
Both of them won because eventually Americans had enough of the incumbent.
If we get to the fall and gas is $5 a gallon, inflation is on the rise, job growth has slowed, stagnated, or even started to go negative, Newt will have a very good chance to win, close to as good as anyone else.
Seriously, where do you think Obama will be if gas is at $5? Where do you think he’ll be if unemployment heads back up to 9% or more? If the market drops 10%? 20%? More?
Newt could well win on gas prices alone.
As for Rick sweeping the midwest. the latest MI poll vs Obama shows Obama with a 26 pt lead over Rick, the latest WI poll has him up by 11, and the latest PA poll has him up by 8, so I don’t know if I’d say he has an excellent chance of sweeping all of them.
But look, if gas goes up to the high $4, past $5, Newt will have a great chance of winning, as will any Republican.
To those thinking third party, look at these 2000 TX general election returns to gauge the numerical futility of such an action:
George W. Bush /Dick Cheney REP 3,799,639 59.29%
Al Gore /Joe Lieberman DEM 2,433,746 37.98%
Harry Browne /Art Olivier LIB 23,160 0.36%
Ralph Nader /Winona LaDuke GRN 137,994 2.15%
Pat Buchanan /Ezola Foster IND 12,394 0.19%
Howard Phillips /J. Curtis Frazier W-I 567 0.00%
James “Jim” Wright /Leonard L. Foster W-I 74 0.00%
David McReynolds /Mary Cal Hollis W-I 63 0.00%
This time I just hope and pray that whoever goes face to face with him is a sharp as a tack, quick with the come-backs, and able to expose how very ignorant, hateful, and uninformed/misinformed Obama really is.
This poll also includes Romney’s debate bump which I’m sure has already evaporated. I doubt Romney’s ahead.
Newt is giving great speeches everywhere he goes. The media, including, FOX rarely mentions his name or ever play any exerts from his fabulous speeches. The word has gone out not to promote Newt and not to mention his name unless you just can’t avoid it. Makes me sick. He is clearly the only one that can take down BO. The press doesn’t like him cause he can take them down too. Sad that fellow conservatives are not voting for him. Rick can’t take on the Chicago machine and survive. He’s a great man, but now is not his time—all in my opinion of course.
Now that he's behind, he seems comfortable again and is roaring like a lion. I don't know. Something about maybe Palin running in 2016 (?)
God help our beloved country.
Its not the end of the surge. There is still plenty of delegates out there up for grabs.
It’s proportionate delegates, not winner take all in Michigan, so either way, Santorum will be adding handsomely to his delegate total. Neither of the other two guys, Gingrich and Paul, is going to get NOTHING that night. Foregone conclusion. A victory there will be icing on the cake. This thing goes on to states where Santorum is very competitive and in the lead. The race goes on. Just like the old days of the GOP where the thing was not decided until June or so. So be it.
Governor Brewer just put Mittens over the top with her endorsement. I wonder if she first consulted John McPain.
A lot has changed since SC.