Skip to comments.Romney Wins Gives Gingrich Glimmer of Hope
Posted on 02/29/2012 6:35:47 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Whether Newt Gingrichs political team realized it or not, they escaped sudden death with Mitt Romneys wins in Arizona and Michigan. While the Gingrich team spoke of the need to see Mitt Romney lose his home state the reality of Rick Santorum going down after his campaign and the PAC supporting him spent a fortune in Michigan is stark. The bloom is now officially off the Santorum rose.
Enter Gingrich, who has (to use a Newt phrase) frankly been out of money and unable to compete or even defend himself in states where he could have been or is competitive. The pro-Gingrich PAC has suddenly received a major cash infusion from its greatest proponent just in time to save the former Speaker of the House from endless negative Romney associated ads in Gingrichs home state of Georgia. In addition, the Gingrich forces now have ads up in numerous states where they believe their man can accumulate delegates
The Gingrich PACs Georgia ad is of mediocre quality, but drives the central issue of questioning Romneys true conservative bona fides. It will likely be enough to give Newt Gingrich a win in the Peach State, allowing him some (if not scant) time to aim at a few other states. With Santorums drop Gingrich could become a last minute substitute for the anyone but Mitt vote in Tennessee and Oklahoma. With so little time left, Ohio becomes problematic for Gingrich. But Alaska and several other states could yield delegates to Newt.
On the other hand, Mitt Romneys camp will now be able to argue that a protracted nomination process is hurting the GOP and chances of defeating President Obama. Hillary Clinton heard the same from Obama supporters on 2008a fact often forgotten four years later.
What Gingrich, Santorum, and Ron Paul must now hope for is a shredding apart of proportional delegates until the big prize of Texas comes up for grabs. Ironically, under GOP national rules, Romneys wins in Florida and Arizona (both winner take all states) can be challenged at the convention in Tampa. But Texas, which was to be a proportional state, may become a winner take all contest given uncertainty over redistricting and the possibility that the state might have to move the date of its primary backfar enough to allow it to become a truly sanctioned winner take all state.
Gingrich is likely hoping to collect just enough delegates to stay alive until Texas when he (and his supporter Governor Rick Perry) can deliver a huge number of delegates. Like Gingrich, Rick Santorum will likely continue on collecting delegates as he can. And of course, Ron Paul will be in the contest until the end.
Next Tuesdays Super vote is right around the corner. Mitt Romney has the momentum, if not the heart of his party, on his side. For Gingrich this is an opportunity to become relevant and perhaps even significant in the battle for the nomination. If that should occur, the convention will likely have no individual with the necessary votes needed to win the nomination. But if Gingrich fails to become relevant in the next week, then Santorum will melt and Romney will have punched his ticket to the final dance (a little March Madness language for our NCAA basketball fans!).
Santorum looks to have peaked for now. He lost Michigan which was in his hands. Romney's retaken the lead in most national polls. Rick's been strong in caucuses, less so in primary states.
For me it doesn't matter so much. Santorum and Romney are both establishment types with similar proposals.
I even suspected the establishment helped Santorum rise throughout Feb. to push Newt out. They want to seal his fate with Super Tuesday.
Look at the mess of the Arizona debate of Romney vs. Santorum, this primary season would be even more awful without Newt and we'd all be poorer for him dropping out.
If Romney is on the ticket, then it is doomed in Nov.
I am, despite being a Newt fan, going to gently disagree with you slightly.
Santorum is a lot like Perry. Absolutely brilliant in retail politics. Read the threads where people have met him in person. They are full of admiration - and not all of the posters are Santorum fans.
Sure, my criteria is different from yours. You rightly want a president who makes America great again. So do I. That is Speaker Gingrich, hands down.
I, as a citizen of an allied nation, want a president who keeps his word. Speaker Gingrich to me is that man, but Sen. Santorum I don’t have a problem with. Gov. Romney - sorry, you guys are on your own, and Sen. Paul, WE are on our own.
It is pretty blunt from across the pond.
Take care of that bust of Churchill for us, won’t you? We’ll be reclaiming it shortly. :-)
My best to Her Majesty The Queen on the occasion of her 60th. I’m hoping she’ll pass Queen Victoria.
As far as I know the bust is still American property. Recall reading a stub article that it is now in the US Embassy here in London, but that was a while back and I may be wrong.
I do think she will step down once she passes Queen Victoria’s term - a little innocent vanity is forgivable, but by abdicating she can short circuit the succession debates that the Dianistas will bring up.
She is getting tired, you can tell, and the Prince Consort’s increasingly bad health is taking a toll too.
She reads every piece of legislation before signing it, and, as most people forget, she has the right to refuse to sign something into law - think your presidential veto option. It would create a constitutional crisis if she did so, but there is an advantage in not having a written constitution.
May she pass the Queen Mum!
I hope she doesn’t step down. Charles is so disliked here, and I don’t think he’s capable. Wills and Kate would do so much better on earnestness alone. They have both warmth and gravitas. They’d pull it off.
Newt has the standard gender gap that all conservative Republicans do when it comes to the female vote. They always lose women by 5-10 points. The bizarre thing about Romney is that he has a gender gap with MEN in a lot of these elections and polls that’s even bigger than Newt’s is with women. A Republican who gets votes more strongly from women than men is truly bizarre. It just shows that Mitt’s a very unusual, exotic candidate for the Republicans to run. He is not the type of Republican candidate who ever really runs and certainly never wins the presidency.
I’d take a Kucinich/Gingrich ticket if that’s what it took to get Newt in the White House. Newt could do more good just by having the platform of the White House to speak to the American public than any other candidate since Reagan could do if they were actually in power.
I provided sources and data. So, you provide your usual bald assertion and expect me to take it on your "authority."
Prove it with data and sources or STFU.
Do you kiss your mama with that mouth?
The only useful link you pasted was the SC exit polls. The others are mindless media chatter, comparing numbers in all kind of fuzzy ways, that don’t show the original numbers.
In the SC polls, Newt had a 4-point gender gap in favor of men, Romney had 3-points in favor of women.
The gap in Florida for Newt was 8 points, less than Bush’s. Newt won 36% of men and 28% of women. Romneys gender gap was with men and it was 11 points. That’s just a bizarre result for a Republican. Those are the kind of votes Democrats get, which suggests Romney would have to make an uncharted course for a Republican to win in the fall.
In this Gallup data demographic data (2/13-2/19), Newt has 15% from men and 12% from women, giving him a 3-point gender gap.
Below is the Bush gender gap:
There has been a gender gap in every presidential election since 1980. In the 2000 election, women were 10 percentage points less likely than men to vote for George W. Bush (43% of women vs. 53% of men supported Bush); and 12 percentage points more likely than men to vote for Al Gore (54% of women vs. 42% of men supported Gore), according to the Voter News Service.