Absolutely Agree on Virginia. However I was off the impression Newt would be able to compete for Missouri 52 delegates on March 17th. Is this not the case?
I recon when all is said and done OH is actually better than VA. At least Santorum get credit for those delegates in OH that he managed to seat. But in VA it is all or none.
However, so far, the “conventional wisdom” among the Missouri political people I deal with is that the race will be over by the time Missouri holds its caucuses so Missouri's caucus won't be relevant.
I am no longer convinced that is true.
I'm less concerned about Gingrich in Missouri than I am about Romney mounting an aggressive campaign to flip the vote toward him. Caucuses usually are dominated by party regulars, and that means Romney has a ready-made campaign organization while Santorum has little on-the-ground organization. Practical example — I can't even get a Santorum yard sign myself, and I've seen only one Santorum sign in my entire county! That's despite the fact that in my county the Republican leadership seems to be not just mostly but entirely for Santorum, and anyone backing Romney is staying quiet.
Elsewhere in Missouri things are very different and some of the places that would be expected to be social conservative hotbeds have local Republican leaders who are campaigning for Romney. That could result in a very different picture if the Missouri caucuses become important.