Skip to comments.Rasmussen: Santorum up 4 in Tennessee
Posted on 03/05/2012 8:54:54 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Yesterday morning, I discovered that few pollsters have bothered with the Tennessee primary. Real Clear Politics only lists five polls taken this year, despite Tennessee having 58 delegates at stake in a proportional primary for tomorrow’s Super Tuesday contest. Not too long after I checked, Rasmussen published its survey for Tennessee, showing Rick Santorum with a narrow four-point lead over Mitt Romney:
Just two days before Super Tuesday, the Republican primary race in Tennessee has become a two-man competition between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.
The first Rasmussen Reports survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters in Tennessee shows Santorum attracting 34% of the vote, while Romney earns 30%. Polls from other firms have previously shown Santorum with a large lead in the state.
That trend would be consistent with Rasmussen Reports polling in other states. InOhio, Santorum was up by 18 points two weeks ago, but the Buckeye State is now a tossup. Nationally, following his victories last Tuesday in the Michigan and Arizona GOP primaries, Romney has opened a 16-point lead over Santorum. Earlier, he had trailed by 12.
Actually, the RCP list shows a decidedly mixed and competitive race in Tennessee. PPP put Santorum up by five points yesterday, while WeAskAmerica polled over a thousand likely TN voters and shows Romney up by one in a virtual tie. However, Rasmussen is correct that earlier polls in February showed Santorum with large leads — eighteen points from a Vanderbilt poll of 815 registered (rather than likely) voters, and 21 points from a Middle Tennessee State University survey of just 196 adults.
This is another survey with some surprising results in the demographics. Santorum has a four-point edge among both men and women in Tennessee, which negates the “gender gap” issue mentioned by the media, at least in the primaries. The age demos are a mixed bag for Santorum. Romney wins the youngest and oldest voters (30/25 among 18-39YOs, 34/28 among seniors) while Santorum wins middle-age voters in between, 39/28. Santorum wins Republicans 37/29, while Romney wins independents by three, 30/27.
How will late-breaking voters decide? Among voters who are basing their choice on matching values, Santorum wins 42/20 over Romney. Those who prioritize beating Obama break 41/27 for Romney. That’s close to a mirror image, but Santorum has a slight edge between those two positions. However, beating Obama has a slight edge overall among the respondents over value matching, 48/43, which means that this is pretty much a wash.
Eric Ostermeier offers an analysis of previous contests to argue that Santorum may have an edge that polling misses:
A Smart Politics review of more than 40 polls leading up to the primaries and caucuses in 11 states thus far in the 2012 election cycle finds that Rick Santorum’s vote total has eclipsed his polling numbers by an average of +4.7 points per state – more than any other candidate.
Smart Politics examined the difference between the vote received on primary or caucus day and the average support measured by pollsters conducted within a week of the contests across the 11 states in which surveys were available: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Minnesota, Colorado, Missouri, Michigan, Arizona, and Washington.
Overall, Santorum received an average of +4.7 points more on the day of the primary or caucus contest than what he registered in those states’ latest surveys.
Ron Paul was the only other candidate whose average vote in the contests was higher than his average polling numbers (+1.1 points), with voting percentages for Mitt Romney nearly even with the polls (-0.6 points) and votes for Newt Gingrich -2.3 points worse than survey averages.
Unlike in Ohio, it appears that Santorum will not have a problem getting his proportional allocation of delegates despite some issues with getting enough qualified delegates in place. A narrow win in Tennessee will still be a win, and its 58 delegates make this a contest worth watching tomorrow.
He was leading in Michigan and look what happened.
Santorum was leading in Ohio and now latest polls have Romney up.
And George Will, you defeatist, please SHUT UP!
So Newt is splitting the conservative vote with Rick AGAIN, folks.
Tennessee Republican Presidential Primary
March 6 58 Delegates | 2008 Tennessee Results: Huckabee +2.7%
Poll Date Santorum Romney Gingrich Spread
RCP Average 3/3 - 3/4 — 32.3 29.7 24.7 Santorum +2.6
WeAskAmerica 3/4 - 3/4 29 30 29 Romney +1
PPPolling 3/3 - 3/4 34 29 27 Santorum +5
Rasmussen 3/3 - 3/3 34 30 18 Santorum +4
|RCP Average||3/3 - 3/4||--||32.3||29.7||24.7||9.3||Santorum +2.6|
|WeAskAmerica||3/4 - 3/4||1023 LV||29||30||29||12||Romney +1|
|PPP (D)||3/3 - 3/4||525 LV||34||29||27||8||Santorum +5|
|Rasmussen Reports||3/3 - 3/3||750 LV||34||30||18||8||Santorum +4|
Just listening to Santorum brag about himself, and talk on and on about little to nothing, would turn any non committed voter off.
Fox News reporting now that Santorum being outspent 6:1 to 8:1 across Super Tuesday states by Romney.
So why is Willard so afraid of CONSERVATIVES???
So how much is the Romney camp paying you for your spin?
Its basically a 3 way tie in TN at this moment. Newt is surging and Santorum is fading.
In a flip from Michigan, early voters probably favored him but election day voters may (hopefully!) make another choice.
I don't think it's a clear pattern as much as the timing is all grouped so these are part of his having hit a peak and still looking for bottom. I suspect he'll bounce again.
Newt supporters hate Rick
Newt supporters are helping Romney
Newt supporters are for Romney
Newt supporters are being paid by Romney
Rick Santorum supporters: Winning over hearts and minds since never.
I smell desperation. Santorum supporters are more inept politically than the Santorum campaign. They won’t win anyone over this way.
My wife and I are voting Newt.
God bless. Thanks for supporting Newt.
Whatever. Enjoy winning one state tomorrow.
What is that then? A whopping two states out of the first 23 contested.
How’s that splitting the conservative vote working out for you HARDCORE Newtonians?
You do know that Romney’s ultra-liberal camp is counting on your foolishness.
Has Rick even won a primary, or just caucuses where there were few if any delegates and hardly anyone showed up to vote?
Please tell us how Rick plans to defeat Romney tomorrow when he doesn’t have committed delegates in Tennessee, or a full slate of delegates in Ohio?
You remind me of a little ankle biting, dog. But sooner or later, you are going to get a big kick from some of the bigger dogs on this forum, if you don’t learn some respect.
LOL! Santorum invites and relies on Democrats, tampering with our Primary, to help him win!
Not only is that pathetic AND Liberal, it shows how your hero has to resort to desperate measures to win. Even more sad is the fact that the Democrats are hoping Santorum wins, so they can have an easy win for Obama. If you had even half a brain, you would look outside of the capsule you are a prisoner of and learn that what most of us are saying, is true.
Or the fact that he won absolutely ZERO committed delegates in his so-called Trifecta win? Absolutely ZERO committed delegates in those beauty contests.
In fact, Missouri will caucus to select their delegates later this month...MN and CO next month.
Santorum has not won a single primary. Not one.
“Its basically a 3 way tie in TN at this moment. Newt is surging and Santorum is fading”
That is what the polls are showing Newt has the momentum and Rick is dropping. GO NEWT GO!
OVER 110 REASONS TO NOT VOTE FOR SANTORUM THE MODERATE/FISCAL RINO
Rick Santorum’s Voting Record
As you decide which candidate is worthy of your vote in the primary, Liberty Counsel Action encourages you to review the positions of all of the candidates on controversial issues. Here is Rick Santorum’s voting record on some key issues. Each vote linked to senate.gov roll call record.
Voted for taxpayer funding of the National Endowment for the Arts.
Voted against a 10% cut in the budget for National Endowment for the Arts.
Voted for a Schumer amendment to make the debts of pro-life demonstrators not dischargeable in bankruptcy.
Defense and Foreign Policy
Voted for the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).
Voted against requiring the President to certify that the CWC is effectively verifiable.
Voted against requiring the President to certify that that Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, North Korea, China, and all other countries determined to be state sponsors of terror have joined CWC prior to submitting the instrument of ratification.
Voted for the START II Treaty
Voted to allow the sale of supercomputers to China.
Voted to ban antipersonnel landmines
Voted against increasing defense spending offset by equivalent cuts in non-defense spending.
Voted to require that Federal bureaucrats get the same payraises as uniformed military.
Voted to allow food and medicine sales to state sponsors of terror and tyranical regimes such as Libya and Cuba.
Voted to limit the Presidents authority to impose sanctions on nations for reasons of national security unless the sanctions were approved by a multilateral regime.
Voted against requiring Congressional authorization for military action in Bosnia.
Voted to give $25 million in foreign aid to North Korea
Voted to weaken alien terrorist deportation provisions. If the Court determines that the evidence must be withheld for national security reasons, the Justice Department must still provide a summary of the evidence sufficient for the alien terrorist to mount a defense against deportation.
Voted against delaying the India Nuclear until the President certified that India had agreed to suspend military-to-military exchanges with Iran.
Voted against the Conventional Trident Missile Program
Voted for Richard Paez to the 9th Curcuit (cloture)
Voted for Sonia Sotomayor, Circuit Judge
Voted for Richard Holbrooke to be Ambassador to the UN
Voted for Margaret Morrow to be District Judge
Voted twice for Marsha Berzon to the 9thg Circuit
Voted for Mary McLaughlin to be District Judge
Voted for Tim Dyk to be District Judge
Voted for James Brady to be District Judge
Voted against National Right to Work Act
Voted against Real of Davis-Bacon Prevailing union wages
Voted for Alexis Herman to be Secretary of Labor
Voted for mandatory Federal child care funding
Voted for Trade Adjustment Assistance.
Voted for Job Corps funding
Voted twice in support of Fedex Unionization
Voted against allowing a waiver of Davis-Bacon in emergency situations.
Voted for minimum wage increases six times here here here here here and here
Voted to require a union representative on an IRS oversight board.
Voted to exempt IRS union representative from criminal ethics laws.
Voted against creating independent Board of Governors to investigate IRS abuses.
Voted to require pawn shops to do background checks on people who pawn a gun.
Voted twice to make it illegal to sell a gun without a secure storage or safety device
Voted for a Federal ban on possession of assault weapons by those under 18.
Voted for Federal funding for anti-gun education programs in schools.
Voted for anti-gun juvenile justice bill.
Voted for funding for the legal services corporation.
Voted twice for a Congressional payraise.
Voted to impose a uniform Federal mandate on states to force them to allow convicted rapits, arsonists, drug kingpins, and all other ex-convicts to vote in Federal elections.
Voted for the Specter backup plan to allow campaign finance reform to survive if portions of the bill were found unconstitutional.
Voted to mandate discounted broadcast times for politicians.
Voted for a McCain amendment to require State and local campaign committees to report all campaign contributions to the FEC and to require all campaign contributions to be reported to the FEC within 24 hours within 90 days of an election.
Voted against increasing the number of immigration investigators
Voted to allow illegal immigrants to receive the earned income credit before becoming citizens
Voted to give SSI benefits to legal aliens.
Voted to give welfare benefits to naturalized citizens without regard to to the earnings of their sponsors.
Voted against hiring an additional 1,000 border partrol agents, paid for by reductions in state grants.
Voted against a flat tax.
Voted to increase tobacco taxes to pay for Medicare prescription drugs
Voted to increase tobacco taxes to fund health insurance subsidies for small businesses.
Voted to increase tobacco taxes to pay for an $8 billion increase in child healh insurance.
Voted to increase tobacco taxes to pay for an increase in NIH funding.
Voted twice for internet taxes.
Voted to allow gas tax revenues to be used to subsidize Amtrak.
Voted to strike marriage penalty tax relief and instead provide fines on tobacco companies.
Voted against repealing the Clinton 4.3 cent gas tax increase.
Voted to increase taxes by $2.3 billion to pay for an Amtrak trust fund.
Voted to allow welfare to a minor who had a child out of wedlock and who resided with an adult who was on welfare within the previous two years.
Voted to increase taxes by $9.4 billion to pay for a $9.4 billion increase in student loans.
Voted to say that AMT patch is more important than capital gains and dividend relief.
Voted against food stamp reform
Voted against Medicaid reform
Voted against TANF reform
Voted to increase the Social Services Block Grant from $1 billion to $2 billion
Voted to increase the FHA loan from $170,000 to $197,000. Also opposed increasing GNMA guaranty from 6 basis points to 12.
Voted for $2 billion for low income heating assistance.
Sponsored An amendment to increase Amtrak funds by $550 million
Voted to use HUD funds for the Joslyn Art Museum (NE), the Stand Up for Animals project (RI) and the Seattle Art Museums Olympic Sculpture Project (WA)
Voted to increase spending on social programs by $7 billion
Voted to increase NIH funding by $1.6 billion.
Voted to increase NIHnding by $700 million
Voted to for a $2 million earmark to renovate the Vulcan Monument (AL)
Voted for a $1 billion bailout for the steel industry
Voted against requiring that highway earmarks would come out of a states highway allocation
Voted to allow Market Access Program funds to go to foreign companies.
Voted to allow OPIC to increase its administrative costs by 50%
Voted against transferring $20 million from Americorps to veterans.
Voted for the $140 billion asbestos compensation bill.
Voted against requiring a uniform medical criteria to ensure asbestos claims were legitimate.
Voted to increase community development programs by $2 billion.
Spending and Entitlements
Voted to make Medicare part B premium subsidies an new entitlement.
Voted against paying off the debt ($5.6 trillion at the time) within 30 years.
Voted to give $18 billion to the IMF.
Voted to raid Social Security instead of using surpluses to pay down the debt.
Voted to allow states to impose health care mandates that are stricter than proposed new Federal mandates, but not weaker.
Voted twice for Federal mental health parity mandates in health insurance.
Voted against a allow consumers the option to purchase a plan outside the parity mandate.
Voted to increase Federal funding for teacher testing
Voted to increase spending for the Department of Education by $3.1 billion.
Voted against requiring courts to consider the impact of IDEA awards on a local school district.
Voted to allow the President to designate certain sites as interim nuclear waste storage sites in the event that he determines that Yucca Mountain is not a suitable site for a permanent waste repository. Those sites are as follows: the nuclear waste site in Hanford, Washington; the Savannah River Site in South Carolina; Barnwell County, South Carolina; and the Oak Ridge Reservation in Tennessee.
Voted to make fuel price gouging a Federal crime.
Santorum is done. Newt is the only one who can stop Romney now.
I have been working for and doing my best for newt since May - back then, months&months ago, I heard him say for the first time, “when will this economy start to turn around? It will start to turn around on election night, when Barack Obama is defeated.” Back in May, one of his very first staple campaign statements. No one said it earlier, it was his. No doubt.
Today in Westerville, OH, Sanctimonium said: “People ask me when is this economy going to start to turn around? I tell them the economy will start to turn around on Election Night, when Obama is defeated.”
Is there anything that can be done about this? Why does Tricky Ricky lie so much? He quotes Newt more than Newt quotes himself, and takes credit for Newt’s ideas all the time. “The Principled Conservative”, who lies at the drop of a hat... dumb as a rock, and a serious prig...
Yes, Newt is surging in more ways than one. He really scored big points on Meet the Press with David Gregory, as he made Gregory look like a mental midget.
Part of Newts surge, is based on this sort of steady publicity.
Do me a favor and stuff your cherry-picked data-dump thread-SPAM up your corn chute, ok? The reason Santorum supporters don’t repeatedly post Newt’s voting mistakes is because we don’t want to help Romney. You, apparently, aren’t smart enough to understand that strategy.
I just heard Rick say that on the top of the hour radio news! They played a clip of Romney also. Not ONE WORD that Newt is still in the race.
It’s so exasperating!
He is sickening. Even his body language and facial expressions, reveal how big a counterfeit and phony he is.
ROFLOL! Now there is a “classy” quote for you, befitting of your true character.
Looks like there is a lot of good news for Rick tomorrow. I’ve been making phone calls for him in Ohio, and the response is very positive.
Wow looks like that Michael Moore endorsement really paid off for Santorum..
Why are you upset about Obama winning in 2012 since you voted for him in 2008. You are such a fraud. Get lost. I am done with you. I can’t believe that you are a liberal playing conservative.
Morrisey mentions the WeAsk poll, but fails to mention the name of “Newt.”
Morrisey mentions the WeAsk poll, but fails to mention the name of “Newt.”
Husband early voted for Mr. Newt Gingrich this morning in Oklahoma.
“Newt is surging and Santorum is fading.”
Let’s hope that trend continues across the remainder of the primary race.
“You do know that Romneys ultra-liberal camp is counting on your foolishness.”
Santorum cannot beat BO. I believe that Newt is our best hope.
There’s a reason why these CONSERVATIVE groups gave Rick Santorumn such fantastic ratings...................
“2005 Republican Liberty Caucus Economic Liberties Score 90%
2004 Republican Liberty Caucus Positions 87%
2003-2004 Campaign for Working Families Positions 100%
2003-2004 Concerned Women for America Positions 100%
2005 American Conservative Union Positions 92%
2003 Concerned Women for America Positions 100%
2003 Eagle Forum Positions 87%
2003 National Journal Conservative on Economic Policy Score 82%
2003 American Conservative Union Positions 90%”
Rick/Newt - 2012!