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Romney up 16 in Gallup national poll (Can Santorum or Gingrich prevent a tipping point?)
Hotair ^ | 03/06/2012 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 03/06/2012 8:54:32 AM PST by SeekAndFind

Pundits have talked for weeks about the possibilities for a brokered convention after having seen one of the more volatile nominating contests in memory. Neither party has had a brokered convention for 50 years, however, and it’s not because we haven’t had competitive primaries in that time. Usually, voters tend to hit a tipping point and start getting behind a leading candidate, which effectively ends the competitive phase of a nomination fight and puts the party on a glide path to a unifying convention in the late summer. That point gets reached when one candidate simply starts winning often enough to make the outcome clear.

That may be starting to happen now, if Gallup’s latest poll is an indication. Mitt Romney has jumped to his largest national lead in weeks as Super Tuesday arrives:

Mitt Romney leads Rick Santorum by 16 percentage points in Feb. 29-March 4 Gallup Daily tracking of national Republican registered voters’ preferences for their party’s nomination. Romney is at 38%, Santorum 22%, Newt Gingrich 15%, and Ron Paul 12%. Santorum led Romney by 10 points as recently as Feb. 20.

Romney’s current 38% of the vote is the highest percentage any candidate has obtained since Gallup Daily tracking of the race began on Dec. 1, and comes in the wake of Romney’s wins in the Feb. 28 Michigan and Arizona primaries. Romney won the Washington state GOP nonbinding caucuses on Saturday, but that victory would have had only a limited impact on the latest five-day rolling national average, which extends back through last Wednesday.

The March 6 slate of 10 primaries and caucuses in the so-called Super Tuesday states has the potential to once more alter the national standings of the candidates. Romney is widely expected to lose in Gingrich’s home state of Georgia, and faces a tough challenge in Tennessee and Oklahoma. Romney is likely to win in his home state of Massachusetts and the contiguous state of Vermont. The critical state will be Ohio, partly because pre-election polling shows the race there to be very close and partly because it is considered to be a bellwether state that will be important in this fall’s election.

Romney’s strong momentum nationally in recent days suggests that he may do better than expected in the 10 Super Tuesday states.

In my column for The Week, I warn that both Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich have narrow windows of opportunity to prevent that tipping point from being reached today:

The Super Tuesday schedule also favors Romney. He should get an overwhelming victory in Massachusetts, his home state, where no other candidate has seriously competed for the 41 delegates. The same is true with Vermont and its 17 delegates. Virginia should have been competitive, but neither Newt Gingrich nor Santorum qualified for the ballot in the Old Dominion, and a majority-vote win over Ron Paul would allow Romney to claim all 49 delegates. That gives Romney a big springboard toward winning a majority of the delegates at stake today. …

Santorum has a better opportunity to slow Romney down and extend the race. Oklahoma has 43 delegates up for grabs, and Santorum has a big lead in the polls — although no surveys have been conducted since the Arizona debate. If Santorum can maintain that big lead in Oklahoma, he can get a significant haul of delegates. But if Romney can ride the Sunday endorsement of Sen. Tom Coburn to a boost in the state, that delegate allocation could become a wash. In Tennessee, Santorum still has a small edge and could get a majority of the state’s 58 delegates.Of course, Oklahoma isn’t really the critical state for Santorum. He needs to win Ohio, a middle-America, Rust Belt state where Santorum’s emphasis on blue-collar economics should find the most resonance. Like Michigan, Santorum ran up big polling leads in Ohio in mid-February, only to lose them as the actual primary contest approached. Polling in the last 48 hours shows Ohio as a toss-up. A narrow win won’t help Santorum outside of the psychological edge, either, as his organizational difficulties last year left him unable to compete for as many as 18 of the state’s 66 delegates. Depending on which congressional districts he wins and loses, a small popular-vote win statewide for Santorum might still result in Romney winning a significantly larger number of delegates.

Most eyes will stay on the results in Ohio and Tennessee tonight. If Santorum can hang on and win both those states, he will still trail Romney in delegates (and possibly Gingrich as well), but will convince donors to keep funding his campaign as the best alternative to Romney. If Romney edges Santorum in either state — but especially Ohio — Santorum has a difficult sale to make on his continued presence in the race. Primary campaigns usually hit a tipping point where Republican voters and donors begin to flock to an undisputed leader in order to bring the fight to a quick conclusion. If Santorum can’t keep Romney from claiming to be that undisputed leader on Super Tuesday, he may exhaust the patience of both groups.

I’m on assignment today and tomorrow and won’t do much blogging in my normal slots. However, I will be on the Hugh Hewitt show tonight as returns come in, and I will be blogging tonight as well to help Allahpundit on analyzing the results.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: gallup; newt; newt4romney; romney; santorum

1 posted on 03/06/2012 8:54:41 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

The bandwagon is gaining momentum... :-(


2 posted on 03/06/2012 8:57:09 AM PST by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Mucho bad news, Romney is beating Newt and Santorum combined. I won’t be giving any advice on whom to vote for today but if Romney wins Ohio he’ll be the nomineee.


3 posted on 03/06/2012 8:59:22 AM PST by jwalsh07
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To: SeekAndFind

Gullible and hood-winked GOP voters provide landslide for the Grand-Daddy of Obamacare.


4 posted on 03/06/2012 9:00:36 AM PST by gitmogrunt
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To: SeekAndFind

Too late. I shouldn’t be surprised. The contraception thing was the Left’s way burying Santorum and Rush unwittingly finished him off with the “slut” comment.


5 posted on 03/06/2012 9:00:39 AM PST by Crucial
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To: SeekAndFind

Let’s face it, Mitt wins unless one of the others gets out. That’s the reality.


6 posted on 03/06/2012 9:02:05 AM PST by toddausauras (FUMR x 1,000)
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To: who knows what evil?

Gee, who saw this coming?

Oh that’s right, I DID, right after the Feb 22 debate. Mariner and the other Santorum bashes still won’t face the obvious truth I placed before them over a week ago.

I tried to warn you people what would happen if Santorum fell. All this talk of a Gingrich rise that has still yet to occur and never will. Because as you can clearly see, many of Santorum’s supporters, who were previously on board with Bachmann, Cain, and Perry are giving up. They’ve had it. Every candidate they support gets trashed not only by the MSM, but by even so-called conservative websites, such as FR.

So if Romney cruises to the nomination and the “rebellion” dies, look no further than the activities here by the vicious posters that did everything in their power to topple the leading Anti-Romney’s, allowing Romney to divide and conquer.

Romney should have been finished on Feb 8. But pride kept people from doing what needed to be done to win the war. And now that pride will destroy them.

If “this” was the goal of the “rebellion”, then Congratulations.


7 posted on 03/06/2012 9:07:37 AM PST by parksstp (I pick RIck! (If he's good enough for Mark Levin and Rush Limbaugh, he's good enough for me))
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To: who knows what evil?

Yep...and Pauls covering him as he goes. Disgusting!


8 posted on 03/06/2012 9:08:00 AM PST by caww
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To: SeekAndFind

Whoever is behind Wednesday, be it Rick or Newt, absolutely MUST step aside and endorse the other or it will be too late!


9 posted on 03/06/2012 9:14:09 AM PST by Happy Rain ("Better add another wing to The White House cause the Santorum clan is coming.")
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To: SeekAndFind
Reagan Was A Sure Loser Too: Conventional wisdom about Republican presidential prospects sounds mighty familiar.
10 posted on 03/06/2012 9:15:59 AM PST by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: Happy Rain

Santorum may be losing support, but I think Newt is finished at this point. The attack ads and debate gaffes were just too much for him to handle.

If I had to pick someone to support, I would reluctantly vote for Santorum unless Newt was in the lead in my state.


11 posted on 03/06/2012 9:15:59 AM PST by Cato in PA (1/26/12: Bloody Thursday)
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To: jwalsh07

“...he will still trail Romney in delegates, and possibly Gingrich as well.”

Too bad, Rick. We hardly knew ya’.

Now, moving on to the only Lib-Slayer among these three noise makers,Newt. Go get ‘em, General. The galactically stupid need a tutorial.


12 posted on 03/06/2012 9:16:41 AM PST by RitaOK (LET 'ER RIP, NEWT. Newt knows where all the bodies are buried, because he buried them.)
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To: toddausauras
I'm not sure how you stop him even if Gingrich or Santorum gets out.

A lot of Newt's supporters are hard core conservative men who won't vote for Romney under any circumstances and see Santorum as socialist because of a handful of pro-union votes.

A lot of Santroum's supporters are pro-life family values women who won't vote for Gingrich under any circumstances because of his schlong control problems in the past.

Just a week ago, I was optimistic that both camps could agree on Santorum and pull some of the Romney crowd with them. Now, not so much.

I'm not ready to throw in the towel just yet, but it isn't looking good.

13 posted on 03/06/2012 9:23:24 AM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Cato in PA
I am a Santorum supporter and even if he has a big lead on Newt but Newt absolutely refuses to step aside—I would want Rick to step aside.

Otherwise it's Mitt and then Obama has another four years to finish destroying freedom in America.

Whoever steps aside to stop Romney will be a national hero of Audie Murphy proportions—and if neither do and Mitt wins may they both be damned a traitors forever.

14 posted on 03/06/2012 9:23:53 AM PST by Happy Rain ("Better add another wing to The White House cause the Santorum clan is coming.")
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To: Vigilanteman

I know. Hey, it would be a nice surprise if a different result is realized but most of us here have followed these nomination contests for years...the writing’s on the wall. Debacle.


15 posted on 03/06/2012 9:25:48 AM PST by toddausauras (FUMR x 1,000)
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To: RitaOK
Well said RitaOK ...at least lets hope it's just “galactically” and not “genetically!”

Take care,

-Geoff

16 posted on 03/06/2012 9:26:01 AM PST by Ozymandias Ghost
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To: SeekAndFind

I did my part in Oh. I voted Santorum today to deny Romney a victory. It is now out of my hands.


17 posted on 03/06/2012 9:26:01 AM PST by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: jwalsh07

From the article:

“Romney is at 38%,...”

Mucho bad news, alright - BAD NEWS FOR ROMNEY!


18 posted on 03/06/2012 9:29:35 AM PST by ngat
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To: parksstp
I'm proud to have done my part to undermine Santorum and Bachmann. I believe neither is qualified for the office.

I supported Cain and Perry and Gingrich.

19 posted on 03/06/2012 9:33:42 AM PST by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: SeekAndFind

Santorum has the chance to stop romney. He’s a solid conservative.

Newt doesnt have that chance. So Free Republic’s pushing newt votes will assist getting us Romney.


20 posted on 03/06/2012 9:36:14 AM PST by Yaelle (Santorum 2012 - we need a STEADY conservative President)
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To: ngat
“Romney is at 38%,...”

"Mucho bad news, alright - BAD NEWS FOR ROMNEY!"

That was my thought. The guy's been running for 5 years, has probably spent $100 mllion by now, has the GOP establishment and mainstream media squarely behind him.....and he can't crack 40 percent?

Sounds pretty bad to me! Hank

21 posted on 03/06/2012 9:42:32 AM PST by County Agent Hank Kimball (Screw it. Newt's the smartest candidate and the guy I want to see debating Obummer. Flame away.)
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To: Yaelle

Santorum and his supporters have been unwittingly helping Romney win the nomination all along by fooling conservatives into thinking he was a viable option. Romney has been piling up delegate while Rick and his supporters maintained the illusion that he was winning meaningful contests and denying Romney delegates. Let me repeat this again for all you thick headed Santorum supporters: HE WASN’T WON ANYTHING BUT NON BINDING CONTESTS AND UNCOMMITTED DELEGATES. Thanks for diverting attention from a conservative who had real plans and a real chance to win.


22 posted on 03/06/2012 9:48:29 AM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: SeekAndFind; All

Has anyone seen any financial info for the campaigns or super pacs? Money is the life blood of a campaign. I know the Gingrich super pac got an infusion a few days ago. The FEC data ends Jan. 31, 2012


23 posted on 03/06/2012 9:48:29 AM PST by deport (..............God Bless Texas............)
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To: parksstp

Cry me a river.

** President Newt Gingrich-”Our beloved republic deserves nothing less.”


24 posted on 03/06/2012 9:52:37 AM PST by Gator113 (** President Newt Gingrich-"Our beloved republic deserves nothing less." ~Just livin' life, my way~)
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To: parksstp

Romney = second Obama term. Time to go out and enjoy life before November.


25 posted on 03/06/2012 9:59:25 AM PST by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: Yaelle

“Santorum has the chance to stop romney. He’s a solid conservative.”

He is a big government attack Lhasa Apso. If he could add Hensarling to the ticket . . . It would be even funnier.


26 posted on 03/06/2012 10:02:15 AM PST by Psalm 144 ("I think we ought to listen to Alinsky." - Governor G. Romney, father of Bishop Willard Mitt Romney.)
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To: Psalm 144

Big government is fine by Santorum supporters. As long as a “moral” person is at the helm.


27 posted on 03/06/2012 10:04:03 AM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: Jim from C-Town

You did the right thing, and that is all anyone can do. Thank you.


28 posted on 03/06/2012 10:04:11 AM PST by Psalm 144 ("I think we ought to listen to Alinsky." - Governor G. Romney, father of Bishop Willard Mitt Romney.)
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To: Happy Rain

Whoever is behind Wednesday, be it Rick or Newt, absolutely MUST step aside and endorse the other or it will be too late!


Post of the day.

JimRob should endorse only the one with the chance to beat Romney.


29 posted on 03/06/2012 10:08:06 AM PST by Yaelle (Santorum 2012 - we need a STEADY conservative President)
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To: trappedincanuckistan

“Big government is fine by Santorum supporters. As long as a “moral” person is at the helm.”

Yup. Same mistake as all the DHS joy and enthusiasm. The US has become everything the Founders fought, killed and in some cases died to prevent.


30 posted on 03/06/2012 10:10:18 AM PST by Psalm 144 ("I think we ought to listen to Alinsky." - Governor G. Romney, father of Bishop Willard Mitt Romney.)
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

The impossibility of Romney winning in the general with such low numbers in his own party supporting him, is becoming obvious to everyone. A true cynic would think he stays in it to ensure Obama has another term. I sincerely believe that half or more of the 38% he allegedly has is made up of those who have bought into the crazy idea that Romney is the most electable candidate.

There was another thread this morning with a post that listed all the reasons Romney can’t win in the general, and it made so much sense it was enough to convince me that the GOP-e is in it to lose, or will insist on a different nominee at the convention if they decide leaving Obama in for four more years presents an existential threat to the nation.


31 posted on 03/06/2012 10:18:27 AM PST by ngat
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To: SeekAndFind
Predictable. I guess the question now and probably always was whether to vote for the next GW/McCain again in the general. Seeing as how Romney has no problem with Obamacare in principle, I think I'm off the train.
32 posted on 03/06/2012 10:33:26 AM PST by throwback ( The object of opening the mind, as of opening the mouth, is to shut it again on something solid.)
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To: Yaelle
Santorum has the chance to stop romney. He’s a solid conservative.

A solid conservative would not have been trying to destroy the pro-life movement in 1996, when the rest of us were trying to defeat Clinton and the Gingrich revolution was still fighting.

33 posted on 03/06/2012 10:53:34 AM PST by ansel12 (Santorum-Catholic and "I was basically pro-choice all my life, until I ran for Congress" he said))
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To: SeekAndFind

This is an old poll already. Romney down 4, Santorum up 2 in today’s tracking:

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx


34 posted on 03/06/2012 11:05:13 AM PST by Keyes2000mt (Conservative Podcast: The Truth and Hope (http://www.truthandhope.2truth.com))
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To: Yaelle; Happy Rain

JimRob has already endorsed.


35 posted on 03/06/2012 11:17:29 AM PST by ansel12 (Santorum-Catholic and "I was basically pro-choice all my life, until I ran for Congress" he said))
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To: ansel12

Yeah, yeah. The Perfect Candidate is not running.

If people other than GA don’t vote Santo (or Paul in VA) today, we have Romney. Face it.


36 posted on 03/06/2012 12:07:13 PM PST by Yaelle (Santorum 2012 - we need a STEADY conservative President)
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To: Yaelle

Turnout today here in Virginia — absolutely pitiful. I was one of TWO in the voting room today just now at about 3 p.m.

No one wants to come out and vote since neither Santorum nor Newt are on the ballot.

Watching this in the general election will be nauseating.


37 posted on 03/06/2012 12:15:55 PM PST by LibsRJerks
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To: Gator113; Mariner

whatever; I just hope you enjoy and don’t complain about your “pain pill” courtesy of Obamacare.


38 posted on 03/06/2012 3:55:47 PM PST by parksstp (I pick RIck! (If he's good enough for Mark Levin and Rush Limbaugh, he's good enough for me))
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To: ansel12; Yaelle

And the endorsement didn’t seem to mean much to her since she’s backing Santuckabee.


39 posted on 03/06/2012 4:01:44 PM PST by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: Yaelle

That’s it?

Trying to destroy the pro-life movement by removing life from the Republican Party Platform is merely, being not “perfect” ?

From pushing Specter for President in 1996 to Romney in 2008, Santorum doesn’t really lose no matter what the result is, as long as it isn’t Gingrich.


40 posted on 03/06/2012 4:09:28 PM PST by ansel12 (Santorum-Catholic and "I was basically pro-choice all my life, until I ran for Congress" he said))
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To: parksstp

It is you that will be in need of “pain pill”.

I don’t want Romney to win, I only want Newt to win, period. However, I will most certainly celebrate the loss of your Saint.

This is the only candidate that we should all be supporting:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3EJwdpEgP0


41 posted on 03/06/2012 4:25:39 PM PST by Gator113 (** President Newt Gingrich-"Our beloved republic deserves nothing less." ~Just livin' life, my way~)
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