Skip to comments.Obama, Iran and the 1939 Syndrome
Posted on 03/07/2012 5:24:13 AM PST by SJackson
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Obama, Iran and the 1939 Syndrome
Posted By P. David Hornik On March 7, 2012 @ 12:55 am In Daily Mailer,FrontPage | 1 Comment
On Tuesday EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton announced that the group of six global powerspermanent UN Security Council members the U.S., Britain, France, China, and Russia plus Germanywere resuming nuclear talks with Iran at an unspecified time and place.
She announced it just as Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu was in Washington trying to convince the U.S. leadership that neither diplomacy nor sanctions were coming anywhere near stopping Irans push to nuclear weapons.
Ashton had earlieron February 14received a proposal for talks from Irans nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili. On Tuesday she said, Today I have replied to Dr. Jalilis letter . What opportune timing.
And what a further blow to Israel.
Typical headlines have been saying Netanyahu told President Obama on Monday that Israel hasnt yet taken a decision on attacking Iran. Yet, as described here and here, an unnamed American intelligence official has conveyed a different impression to Israels Channel 2 news.
Channel 2 reported on Monday night that the official said, U.S. intelligence services believe that, in principle, Israel has already made the decision to bomb Iran. According to Channel 2, the official warned that such an attack would entail thousands of casualties and spark a regional war or even World War IIIin short, an all-out catastrophe. An official Israeli source dismissed these statements as scare-mongering and psychological warfare.
Just as there is a dissonance between the mainstream versionwhich says Israel hasnt yet decidedand this apparent desperate attempt to bypass the Israeli leadership and scare its population silly via its most popular news channel, there is a dissonance between Obamas words this week and what we read elsewhere.
In his AIPAC speech on Sunday: I firmly believe that an opportunity still remains for diplomacybacked by pressureto succeed.
And in Tuesday nights news conference: [Iran] understand[s] that the world community means business. To resolve this issue will require Iran to come to the table and discuss how to prove to the international community that the intentions of their nuclear program are peaceful.
Meanwhile IAEA chief Yukiya Amano says Iran has tripled its monthly production of 20-percent-enriched uranium since the IAEAs previous report in November. That was the report that was seen as dramatically confirming Israels insistence over the years that Iran had never stopped working on the bomb.
Amano also expressed serious concern about the IAEA being denied, again, access to Parchinthe site where Iran has built a large containment chamber to conduct high-explosives tests that the IAEA considers strong indicators of nuclear-weapons development. That was according to Novembers report. Whats going on in the chamber now? No one knows.
No wonder administration officials are so worried Israel will attack and trying to scare the Israeli people out of their wits about what will happen if it does. Seemingly it would make more sense for the administrationand the Western world as a wholeto get seriously scared about Parchin and drop the hang-up with Israel.
On Tuesday it was reported that Iran now says it will let the IAEA into Parchinat an unspecified date. Even if that transpires, it will obviously be after Iran has had enough time to clean the site.
But never fear, as Obama said yet again Tuesday night: What weve been able to do is mobilize unprecedented crippling sanctions on Iran. Iran is feeling the bite of these sanctions in a substantial way.
Two problems with that. First, regarding Irans nuke program, theyre not having the slightest effect, as the tripling of uranium production since Novemberamong other thingsattests.
And second, while there has indeed been some ramping-up of sanctions since November so that ordinary Iraniansnot the regimehave been hit by them, both the U.S. administration and the Europeans are leisurely about the pace.
As for the Europeans, their embargo on Iranian oil wont even kick in until July. And as Bret Stephens noted in the Wall Street Journal, it was Obama who fought tooth-and-nail against the very sanctions on Iran for which he now seeks to reap political credit. And its Obama who is still delaying the sanctions on Irans central bank that the Senate passed 100-0 in December.
Again that dissonancebetween the IAEAs evident alarm and the U.S. and European governments ongoing nonchalance.
And if anyone still doubted that it was nonchalanceas well as delusion, cynicism, and denialtodays decision by the Western powers to return to talks with Iran should put those doubts to rest. The Iran that has transparently been using such talks as delaying tactics for a decade; the Iran that regularly threatens another state with annihilation; the Iran that installs thousands of new, ever-more-sophisticated centrifuges in its underground Fordow facility as the Ashtons and Obamas of this world speak deplorable nonsense.
Israels Ynet News reports that Israeli state officials were disappointed with the Netanyahu-Obama meeting and quotes them saying:
The Iranians are charging at nuclear capabilities at full force and even the IAEA is falling in line with the Israeli intelligence evaluations. That is why the U.S. stance is problematic . Right now we are certain the [administration] wont do anything and we need to decide what to do . The[administration] want[s] oil prices not to go up because its bad for their economy . You have to consider the fate of the Western world . Its better to pay more for oil this year than to pay the cost for a nuclear Iran.
While not making a direct comparison, psychologically the current atmosphere in the West is the same as the one in 1939. Westerners who sought peace and coexistence had options but at the moment of truth they chose to sacrifice Czechoslovakia. Weve been there. While being very careful with this analysis, we have the same psychological phenomenon.
Its indeed a grim analysis but all too congruent with the facts. Consider:
Which means Netanyahu faces a true test as, once again, the Western world seeks abjectly for the easy way out.
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Here we go.
And I repeat: Obama will not finish his term.
If youd like to be on or off, please FR mail me.
Basically, different people are telling Israel that they must not attack, and using different justifications. What they don’t seem to understand is that Israel is refusing to be thrown under the bus in a world full of Nevil Chamberlain’s. They will not be Warsaw, September 1st, 1939. And when they see the buildup coming, they will stop it well before that happens. And if anyone has any doubts about Israel’s resolve, I give you Netanyahu’s speech yesterday coupled with this:
Care to elaborate?
—Care to elaborate?—
I get that a lot. ;-)
I believe that his incompetence is going to be so exposed this year that even those with their heads most in the sand will have to ask, WTF. And worldwide dangers will expose him for the truly empty suit he is. I believe one of several things could happen:
1. assassination (maybe even by his “handlers”)
3. quick impeachment and removal.
4. Health related - results of stress cause anything from a serious stroke to an aneurism.
5. A stat of emergency is declared and he suspends the election. This means that although he is still in the white house, his term of “president” was cut short. He would be dictator.
6. Terrible golfing mishap.
The world is at a time when we need Churchills and Reagans, Not Chamberlains and Carters. And even comparing him to the latter two is an insult to them.
I think anything from world events to massive rioting at home could bring on the stuff in my list.
Obama controls the Media, Congress and much of the Judiciary.
He already is a Dictator.