Skip to comments.New poll shows Rick Santorum leading in Alabama GOP primary
Posted on 03/08/2012 7:54:01 AM PST by pgkdan
A new poll released on the eve of Rick Santorums first campaign visit to Alabama shows the former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania leading in the state Republican Party presidential primary.
The statewide poll conducted by Alabama State Universitys Center for Leadership and Public Policy showed 22.7 percent of likely Republican voters supported Santorum, who is scheduled to make campaign appearances Thursday in Huntsville and Mobile.
Former Massachussetts Gov. Mitt Romney trailed Santorum with 18.7 percent, followed by Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House from neighboring Georgia, with 13.8 percent.
The telephone poll of 470 likely GOP voters showed 29.8 remained undecided and 15 percent saying they intended to support other candidates. The poll did not ask voters whether they supported Ron Paul, the Texas congressman seeking the GOP nomination.
The poll was conducted March 1, prior to the Super Tuesday vote that helped establish Romney and Santorum as leaders in the race for the nomination, with Romney holding a total of 415 delegates and Santorum with 176.
Gingrich, with 105 delegates, canceled campaign plans in Kansas this week to focus on voters in Alabama and Mississippi, which share a primary election day Tuesday.
But the poll results indicate that support for Gingrich is waning in Alabama, according to ASU political science professor Thomas Vocino.
The numbers are just not in his favor, and the trend is working against him, Vocino said. I cant foresee a situation where he can rebound and win in Alabama.
Vocino said Gingrichs support has fallen steeply since ASU began tracking the race five weeks ago. Gingrich led the field in Alabama with 26.9 percent in the initial round of polling on Feb. 2. His support slipped to 18.9 percent by Feb. 23, when results showed him with a slim lead over Santorum at 18.3 percent.
Santorums steady increase over the same time period came almost completely at Gingrichs expense, Vocino said. Romney, by comparison, has held flat at around 16-18 percent, according to Vocino.
The results indicate that Gingrich is unlikely to reach the 20 percent threshold that would allow him to win delegates in any of the states seven congressional districts.
I think it is very problematic for Gingrich to get any delegates, Vocino said
Even though I like Rick more, I would be VERY happy with either Newt, or Rick, as POTUS. But Newt just isn’t catching on.
This is what I’m talking about. See Ms. Sun’s post #250 above as a case in point.
Wondering if Obama and hese wealthy masters are secretly pushing and helping Santorum’s candidacy in order to destroy him after the primaries if he wan .
In that case the liberals would have 2 republican candidates considered as easily beatable by the One( one faux “conservative” and a one issue caricature of conservative)
“Mitt 419 Delegates
Rick 178 Delegates
Newt 107 Delegates
Ron 47 Delegates”
And current NATIONAL polls have Rick 13.3 points ahead of Newt.
It’s time to choose. Just hope it’s not too late.
There is little doubt that democrats are fueling Rick especially in places like Michigan and Ohio. It was a fact if you look at their blogs. The democrats really relish either Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum. They fear Newt Gingrich. Is fairly plain for anyone who has followed politics for half a century like I have. The democrats have been setting up Romney for over a year. In the last couple of months they have pivoted to Rick Santorum to hedge there bets. Either one and it is a easy walk for Obama. Newt would kick butt, and they know it.
Today, we are fighting against Islamic fascists. His recent remarks on Iran have been especially harsh. This is the type of talk that gives the State Department jitters, even if it happens to be true.”
Here’s another post by Mrs. Sun:
“27.3 Santorum 14.0 Gingrich”
ok, you win Rick is incredible. LOL. He still loses by 10. Get back to me in December. With any luck the world will come to an end on the 20th.
“The House of Delegates’ districting system divides the state into 58 districts that elect a varying number of members. The majority of districts, 35, are single-member districts. 23 districts are multi-member constituencies, varying from two to seven (the 30th District in Kanawha County) delegates. Some have claimed that districts are gerrymandered in such a way as to preserve the status quo. Republicans have called for 100 single-member districts, with the districts representing compact areas of common interests.”
I know very little about the details of how West Virginia's system works in practice. Perhaps someone with knowledge of that state can comment.
Only for the neocon interventionists. Santorum's Iranian war drum banging is madness, a sure loser at the fall ballot box.
Newt's unafraid to engage in intellectual debate, he's willing to go beyond orthodoxy, to challenge assumptions, to investigate. On foreign policy, he's more circumspect in the model of Reagan. Santorum represents reckless hawkishness.
Santorum's not a curious person and he's dishonest about his own past positions having run on individual healthcare mandates in 1992 and 1994 both according to historical press accounts.
Fair enough. Thanks Manc.
The sample in this poll is way too small to be taken seriously.
Four years ago today, McCain was ahead by a whooping 30 points, but Romney is only ahead by around 10.
Getting rid of Romney is doable, but time is short.
>> The people in some states dont take a real hankerin to folks from outside the area <<
You mean like Pennsylvania-born Newt, Pennsylvania-born Rick, or Pennsylvania-born Ron? Or were you referring to Michigan-born Mitt? All are outsiders, all are carpetbaggers. So what’s to choose?
If Romney has any sense, and if his campaign managers have any strategy, they will choose Rick as the Vice-Presidential candidate.
Romney will get the business people; the Mormons; good, decent women; the family values crowd; and the moderates and Utah.
Rick will get the South, more family values crowd, more decent good women, the Catholics, the conservatives, the Evangelicals, and Pennsylvania.
It’s a win—win—win—for Romney, Rick, and the GOP.
But most especially for the American people, because Obama will go down to ignominious defeat in November!
ok, let’s all vote for Newt and be done with it. Good plan Ms. Sun. Not voting for Romeny, NO WAY.
Mittbot, Romney is an anti-freedom (Romneycare) socialist, anti-gun, pro-abort piece of human debris.
The GOP can GTH as far as I’m concerned, they’ve sold the American people out for whatever crumbs the RATs will let them have.
That’s a fair question. I believe my emphasis was concerning the idea that Mitt has tons of cash to exert influence, and the other folks were trying to win over people in a lot less (purchase the win) manor.
If a guy wants to come down there, meet with folks, and present his views fine. I think they’ll listen. If he purchases tons of media spots and trashes the others, I think the natives would get real restless.
Not a Mitt-bot. Just a pragmatist. After all, we conservative Republicans do want to win in November.
ALL my campaign cash has gone to Santorum.
I’m thinking of writing a polite letter to Newt, and ask him to support Rick, because Rick is 13.3 points ahead of Newt in the National polls.
btw, Mr. Sun asked me, who’s winning the discussion, and I said me. :)
Don’t waste your time writing such a letter to Newt. He is
the ultimate egotist, and cares only about what is good for Newt. (see: two previous wives ditched because they became ill.)
You’re promoting Romney, that makes you mittbot.
I’m a conservative before I’m a Republican.
The Republican party is dead to me.
And you, dear sir, are an ex-Mormon and hater of all things and persons Mormon.
That makes you a hater, and I will not respond any further to haters of any stripe.
What do you expect Mr. Sun to say. Geez. Let me ask my spouse. Well, you will never believe it but....lol. Go ahead write the letter, he will get a kick out of it. Jr. Senator who lost by 17 points in his home states asks former Speaker of the House to step aside because he is 13 points ahead in the national polls at this point. Well, if that be the case, Rick would have left the reace a very long time ago. Like when he was down 18 points, or wait that was 28 points in the national polls. LOL. You are a trip.
BTW, Sun, you are winning.
Keep up the good work.
Who has the mittbot watch (aka ZOT) list?
I think we have a live one here.
My, my, so judgemental.
I’m a “hater”? LOL! Pathetic dodge. You know absolutely NOTHING about me and pretend to be so much better than me. LOL! What a laugh a minute from a rookie such as you.
You are a promoter of liberal scum, get ready, a world of hurt is coming.
Something smells here...kinda like ozone.
No, you are judgemental. Anyone here can go read your profile page, where the hatred of Mormonism is so thick you could cut it with a knife.
Better go back and revise your page, if you don’t want readers to know where you’re coming from.
Hell hath no fury like an ex-Mormon!
Ms. scores and wins....upps, Ricky still loses by 10.
Romney is a cyborg.
Yeah, which...is...why...we can't vote for Mitt! HELLO, ANYBODY HOME? We want CONSERVATIVES to win, not liberals.
Newt is the ultimate egotist, and cares only about what is good for Newt. (see: two previous wives ditched because they became ill.)
You're spreading absolute lies. Newt did not leave his wives because they got ill. His first wife was a teacher who seduced him when he was 16 years old. She is alive and well today. His second marriage was a troubled one with a long separation and reconciliation attempt before the divorce years later. You can look at anything from that woman in the media and understand why Newt would not have been able to live with her.
Newt is anything but an egotist. He courageously risked his own career and reputation many times in order to stand up for conservative beliefs. He ticked off powerful Republicans and Democrats time and time again (the Democrat Speaker, Bush, Sr., Bob Dole, Bill Clinton, etc.) by pushing a hard-line conservative philosophy and forcing them to live up to their promises. That's not egotism, that's courage and confidence.
Sounds like you're part of the Mormon block vote from what you're saying. If that's true, then thanks for buying into the liberal philosophy of identity politics and giving preferential treatment to preferred ethnicities.
Nothing wrong with Mormons, except when they pretend to be Christians. There’re not. Sorry
Hyperbole fail. Try reading my posting history before you get on your high jackass.
Spoken like a true mormon, are you one?
Cause if you are, identity politics is as bigoted as it comes.
Revise NOTHING! I posted it there so folks like you, who sit in judgement of others can get schooled.
Here, here is what you claim is “hate”.
I am an ex-mormon. I make no bones about my exposing the false doctrines or theology of mormonism. Exposing the dark underbelly of mormonISM, its doctrines, theology and tenets does not make one a “hater” of mormons as individuals.
I was led to believe many lies perpetrated by the mormon church. I have come to the knowledge that the purported “prophets” in SLC have kept their members in the dark. I was a mormon for many years, temple recommend, sealed to my wife in the Wash. D.C. temple, melchizedek p.h., various callings throughout.
How did I come to leave mormonism? The mormon teaching/belief that Jesus is a created being, that He “worked” or earned His way back to heaven. That man can become as God. [Garden of Eden original sin.] Once I started putting all of this together, I quit. But I didn’t really. I was a jack mormon for quite some time. It wasn’t until recently that I engaged some folks on FR about mormons. They helped me gain an even deeper understanding of what it was that I was missing. A relationship with Jesus Christ. Since then, it’s been a rocky road, filled with a lot of false starts, but I finally got some momentum going. I have found the one, unalterable God and my salvation in Jesus Christ.
Come on, show me the “HATE”!!!
Now, if you’re done trying to deflect my criticism of your PRO-Romney posts by making this about me, why don’t we discuss why promoting Romney is “pragmatic”?
Good job. By the way, you are winning. Just saying.
Good job. By the way, you are winning. Just saying.
Sniff, sniff. Methinks I agree with you SZ, seems like a mittbot to me.
Gracie, I read just a few of your posts and my analytical skills kicked in. Just judging by the language, your sign-up date, and attacking anyone against Romney as being Anti-Mormon, would I be going out on a limb to suggest that you are the previous zotted poster known as Sandra Duffy?
If I’m correct, please let me know so I can add this skill to my resume for some of the intelligence jobs I’m applying for. Thanks.
“...I cant foresee a situation where he can rebound and win in Alabama...”
More professional observers can ALWAYS forsee such situations. I predict Newt will win big here in Alabama.
Santorum’s foreign policy is basicly to start a lot of wars. He is a neoconservative, just like Romney, McCain, Bush and Obama, and that is really my only main issue with him. We need a foreign policy realist.
We are talking about Alabama here. If PA's Santorum is #1, and MA's Romney is #2, I don't think Romney is the weak one here.
Rick was born in Virginia, but don’t let the facts interrupt you.
I love good testimony! Thanks for sharing.
Split vote giving it to Romney again, but you must be thrilled Romney is winning, what with your rabid hatred for Santorum and all.
Yes, this rabid hatred for Saint Rick is working to the benefit of Mittens, who always knew that it would do so.
No, Newt was a big Dole backer in GA in 1996; I specifically remember he was. Dole did not see fit to return the favor.
Newt may win AL, but it won’t make much difference at this late date.
I was thinking he’s more like FRaud Thompson. A stalking horse for Willard like Freddy was for McLame, staying in just long enough to ensure a weak-kneed RINO is the nominee.