Skip to comments.New poll shows Rick Santorum leading in Alabama GOP primary
Posted on 03/08/2012 7:54:01 AM PST by pgkdan
A new poll released on the eve of Rick Santorums first campaign visit to Alabama shows the former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania leading in the state Republican Party presidential primary.
The statewide poll conducted by Alabama State Universitys Center for Leadership and Public Policy showed 22.7 percent of likely Republican voters supported Santorum, who is scheduled to make campaign appearances Thursday in Huntsville and Mobile.
Former Massachussetts Gov. Mitt Romney trailed Santorum with 18.7 percent, followed by Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House from neighboring Georgia, with 13.8 percent.
The telephone poll of 470 likely GOP voters showed 29.8 remained undecided and 15 percent saying they intended to support other candidates. The poll did not ask voters whether they supported Ron Paul, the Texas congressman seeking the GOP nomination.
The poll was conducted March 1, prior to the Super Tuesday vote that helped establish Romney and Santorum as leaders in the race for the nomination, with Romney holding a total of 415 delegates and Santorum with 176.
Gingrich, with 105 delegates, canceled campaign plans in Kansas this week to focus on voters in Alabama and Mississippi, which share a primary election day Tuesday.
But the poll results indicate that support for Gingrich is waning in Alabama, according to ASU political science professor Thomas Vocino.
The numbers are just not in his favor, and the trend is working against him, Vocino said. I cant foresee a situation where he can rebound and win in Alabama.
Vocino said Gingrichs support has fallen steeply since ASU began tracking the race five weeks ago. Gingrich led the field in Alabama with 26.9 percent in the initial round of polling on Feb. 2. His support slipped to 18.9 percent by Feb. 23, when results showed him with a slim lead over Santorum at 18.3 percent.
Santorums steady increase over the same time period came almost completely at Gingrichs expense, Vocino said. Romney, by comparison, has held flat at around 16-18 percent, according to Vocino.
The results indicate that Gingrich is unlikely to reach the 20 percent threshold that would allow him to win delegates in any of the states seven congressional districts.
I think it is very problematic for Gingrich to get any delegates, Vocino said
If Newt can’t win in Alabama, then he has no “southern strategy.”
What I have noticed is the media’s unwillingness to acknowledge Santorum’s appeal outside the midwest.
Single issue moralists continuing to vote against their better economic interests.
Need to get behind his momentum before the msm and gope get their minions out with their propaganda again.
I remain quite skeptical that 470 people can be that accurate in the overall scheme of things in Alabama. I know, I know, I still remain skeptical.
Newt may or may not be in this bad of shape down there. If he is, it doesn’t bode well for him.
Newt’s and Romney’s PACs have been running it already in Mississippi.
Wow, and this poll was taken March 1st, and only accounts for 55% of the vote. Essentially worthless...
FReepmail Antoninus to be added or removed.
Tracks Newts national number of around 14%, it is a safe bet Rick will win the southern states.
I don’t believe it. I live in bama and I see a lot of support for Newt.
How can Romney be close in Alabama? Help me out, Alabamans.
The other headline I have seen on this is: “Undecided would win the Alabama Primary if held today.”
This is why I am concerned about Newt. He can’t even win southern or semi-southern states like Tennessee and now looks like Alabama.
He can’t possibly win without the south.
Santorum has a better grip on foreign policy than Newt. He communicates more clearly about it as well. I'm not so thrilled about a lot of his other positions, but he is more trustworthy than Newt's propensity to chase the fashion of the moment, be it biodiversity, global warming, carbon trading, or healthcare mandates.
Get a grip.
Don’t worry. By Tuesday morning Team Romney will have outspent him in Alabama 6 to 1 and will have successfully carpet-bombed him into second place.
I appreciate the mention. I’d like to see him do it. I have thought he would, but we’ll see. Newt’s folks are convinced he’s on a one state roll...
A patry lead to be sure but it don’t look good for Newt in Alabama one of the few states you’d think he’d be competitive in.
If “other candidates” is all Ron Paul (who’s name wasn’t in the poll) then Newt is in 4th like he was in most Super Tuesday states. Vote Santorum.
“Single issue moralists continuing to vote against their better economic interests.”
Santorum is just their version of Mitt Romney.