Posted on 03/08/2012 12:40:31 PM PST by SeekAndFind
One of the reasons to be skeptical that Rick Santorum could win the Republican nomination is that we now have a pretty good idea of how the vote will play out from state to state — and the coalition that he is building seems short of a majority.
It is not that Mr. Santorum’s delegate deficit is mathematically insurmountable. But he’s behind, and he is very unlikely to win states like New Jersey and California that either have a lot of delegates or use winner-take-all rules to award them. That might not leave enough fertile opportunities for him to gain delegates. If you go through the states one by one and make some reasonably optimistic assumptions about how Mr. Santorum might perform in each one based on their demographics, and then apply the delegate rules in each state, you’ll find it very challenging to come up with a plan in which he wins a majority of delegates, let alone a plurality of them.
So what Mr. Santorum needs instead is some kind of change in the underlying conditions of the race. Not just one where he starts to win marginal states (say, Illinois and Wisconsin) by a point or two instead of lose them (as he did in Michigan and Ohio). That doesn’t actually make all that much difference in the delegate math. He needs something more fundamental than that.
There is one obvious candidate: what if Newt Gingrich were to drop out of the race? This is hardly so far-fetched. Mr. Gingrich had a poor Super Tuesday, and his advisers have said that Mississippi and Alabama, which vote next Tuesday, are “must-wins” for him. Indeed, the main competition in these states might be between Mr. Santorum and Mr. Gingrich, with Mr. Romney likely to finish in third place
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...
If Newt Gingrich dropped out, how many of his supporters would go to Mr. Santorum? It is hard to know for sure and it might depend in part on whether Mr. Gingrich endorsed Mr. Santorum.
We can also ask : If Santorum dropped out, how many of his supporters would go to Newt? It is hard to know for sure and it might depend in part on whether Santorum endorsed Newt.
In other words, who has the better chance if it were simply a 3 way race:
SANTORUM, ROMNEY and PAUL
or
GINGRICH, ROMNEY and PAUL ?
I don’t know about now but had he dropped out prior to Iowa, when Willard was playing dirty on Girngrich, Santorum would have been history a long time ago.
The difference is that Santurom has won more than 2 states and he has places 2nd in more of the others than Gingrich has.
Right now, Gingrich is the hucka-hanger-on that is causing the conservative vote to be split.
In other news, Santorum does not have the political structure in some states.
Some time after SuperTuesday, more states become winner-take-all. Thus, placing or showing doesn’t even get a delegate. That UPs the game.
Santorum would have had no chance without Gingrich, because he would have been on Willard’s hit-list, but Willard considered him too unimportant to bother with. Santorum only got where he did because of the destruction wreaked by Romney (with Santorum’s help, I will add) on Perry and Gingrich.
As for Gingrich voters, I honestly don’t think most of them would go to Santorum. The man has no ideas, an unlikeable persona, and is just as big-government, nanny-state as Romney. So I don’t know where they’d go.
You do know that Gingrich has many more delegates than Santorum, don’t you?
“How Would Santorum Do Without Gingrich”
I’ll ask the same question only in reverse. :)
Not according to the WSJ
Mitt 419 Delegates
Rick 178 Delegates
Newt 107 Delegates
Ron 47 Delegates
http://projects.wsj.com/campaign2012/delegates
Total agreement.
I won’t vote for either Romney or Santorum. One of the few benefits of living in the N.J.S.S.R.
Yeah, they need some delegates to keep them interested with additional delegates awarded if they adopt a congressional district allocation system similar to what is used in Maine and Nebraska.
Or simply grant them a certain minimum number such as given to American Samoa or Guam, plus a multiplier times the actual number of electoral votes they delivered for the GOP candidate over the last 4 or 5 presidential election cycles. If they have a new congressional district allocation system in place, then they can use what they would have won had that system been in place in previous election cycles.
Newt is the last in line for me.. I had said I would stop at Cain... but I stretched a bit further to the center for Newt.. no more. If Newt doesn’t get it, then I am writing in Palin for the Primary AND General.
No More Big Govt. ... No More Union supporting pols..
Ohio
Romney 38%
Santorum 37%
Gingrich 15%
==
How many Gingrich votes would have gone to each: Romney and Santorum?
In all probability, Ohio would have turned out to be a big win for Santorum without Gingrich in the race. That could have off-set the walk-away Romney got in Virginia.
You make some very valid points....
Newt Gingrich has more “hard” delegates than Santorum.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/
“Hard” Delegates
Need to Nominate 1,144
(available)1,762
W Romney 302
N Gingrich 96
R Santorum 79
Uncommitted 29
R Paul 16
J Huntsman 2
Total 2,286
Santorum has not been organized or had the money to pre-plan for primaries. So he goes in a wins in a state, such as in Ohio, and because he didn’t get his delegates dedicated BEFORE the primary, all those delegates go to Romney. Gingrich had done the work and unfortunately it appears that Santorum is working to be Romney’s VP.
Santorum will not work with Gingrich.
Newt's votes would go 100% for Romney.
Santorum's votes would go 100% for Newt.
Is that what you are trying to say? God help us survive this drivel.
Then we better get used to another four years of Obama when the conservatives (like me) refuse to vote for the flip-flopping Massachusetts liberal.
I personally pledge to NEVER again vote in any election at any level of government for the “lesser of two evils” when the “lesser” is nothing but another establishment Republican RINO.
Thirteen is many? (I assume you are counting hard only.) Over the next few weeks, Minnesota, Colorado, Missouri, and Iowa will select the hard delegates. Santorum is better placed for these to make up the difference. Santorum is 39 ahead on soft count. Together, they do not match Romney.
Guys,
Look at the remaining states. I would argue that Romney can’t win in over half of them no matter how much carpet bombing he does. I think sometimes we get down because we’re not looking at the big picture.
I would argue that Romney can’t win the following states no matter what:
Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, Louisiana, Texas, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, West Virginia, Nebraska, Arkansas, Kentucky, New Mexico, South Dakota.
Theses states are toss ups:
Wisconsin, Indiana, California, Montana, Kansas (only because it is on Saturday)
Romney probable:
Hawaii, Illinois, D.C, Maryland, Delaware, New York, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Utah
The base hates Romeny and he gets worse as time goes on. Honestly I’m not sure Romney will still be in the race in June. He raised $11 million last month but he spent a lot more than that.
The soft delegates for Santorum likely will stay with Santorum if he stays in the Race.
I despise Romney.
You haven't been paying attention. Romney solely focused on Santorum in both Michigan and Ohio, outspending him 12-1 in Ohio, and still barely won both states.
When Romney attacked Gingrich in Florida, Newt was destroyed. Worse, he couldn't control his rage at Romney's attacks and fell apart in a debate in Florida.
How would Gingrich do without Santorum?
If Newt drops out, I ain’t supporting Father Ricky. I go over to Mitt.
Yeah, right. Santorum pushed for welfare reform and opposed then individual insurance mandate even while other conservatives were pushing it back in the 1990s.He has 88% career rating from the ACU, which is only two percent less than Newt.
It's this sort of stupid that is helping Romney win the nomination.
RE: If Newt drops out, I ain’t supporting Father Ricky. I go over to Mitt.
You actually believe Mitt would be a better president than Rick?
Rick is ahead of Newt in national polls by 13.3 points.
Rick Santorum is our best last chance to get rid of Romney.
RE: The man has no ideas, an unlikeable persona
1) Unlikeable person — WOMEN actually vote for him more than men.
As for unlikeable, if so, why is he AHEAD of Newt? Doesn’t that make Newt even more unlikeable
2) As for having no ideas, did you actually READ his policy proposals?
See here:
http://www.ricksantorum.com/truth
Rick Santorum’s First 100 Days Economic Freedom Agenda
1) UNLEASH AMERICA’S ENERGY: I’ll approve the Keystone Pipeline for jobs and energy security. I’ll sign an order unleashing America’s domestic energy production without picking winners and losers on Day One. I’ll allow states to choose where they want to explore for oil and natural gas and to set their own regulations for hydrofracturing.
2) STOP JOB KILLING REGULATIONS: I’ll eliminate all regulations promulgated by the Obama Administration which have an economic burden over $100 million dollars, on Day One, including repeal of the EPA rule on CO2 emissions that have already shut down six power plants and furlowed 500 workers. I will order a review of all regulations, making sure these regulations use sound science and common-sense cost benefit analysis.
3) REIN IN SPENDING TO SECURE OUR FUTURE: I’ll propose spending cuts of $5 trillion over 5 years, including spending cuts for the remainder of fiscal year 2013. I will propose budgets that spend less money each year than the year before, and I’ll reduce the non-defense related federal workforce at least 10 percent, without replacing with contractors.
4) REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMACARE: I’ll submit legislation to Congress to repeal ObamaCare and issue an executive order ending related regulatory obligations on the states on Day One. I’ll work with Congress to replace ObamaCare with competitive choices of healthcare plans to improve the quality and limit the cost of healthcare, while protecting those with uninsurable health conditions.
5) BALANCE THE BUDGET: I’ll submit to Congress a budget that will balance within 4 years and I’ll call on Congress to pass a Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution which limits federal spending to 18 percent of GDP.
6) PRO-GROWTH AND PRO-FAMILY INDIVIDUAL TAX POLICY: I’ll submit to Congress my comprehensive pro-growth and pro-family tax policies to strengthen opportunity in our country, with lower rates of 10 percent and 28 percent. To help families, I’ll triple the personal deduction for children and eliminate the marriage tax penalty throughout the tax code.
7) RESTORE AMERICA’S COMPETITIVENESS: I’ll cut the corporate tax in half to a flat-tax rate of 17.5 percent to make America competitive internationally, and I’ll allow corporations to expense all business equipment and investment. I’ll eliminate taxes on IRS Code Section 199 manufacturing activity to attract manufacturing back to America. I’ll take the lead on tort reform to lower the cost of doing business in America and to reduce the cost of products and services to consumers. Repeal Dodd-Frank, which is making it harder for businesses to get access to credit and for Americans to buy houses and refinance.
8) NEGOTIATE AND SUBMIT FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS: Because a substantial portion of Americans work for companies which export, I’ll initiate negotiations in the first 100 days and submit to Congress at least five free trade agreements to increase our exports during my first year in office.
9) REFORM ENTITLEMENTS: I will cut means-tested entitlement programs by 10 percent across the board, freeze them for four years, and block grant them to the states as I did as the author of welfare reform. I will reform Medicare and Social Security so they are fiscally sustainable for seniors and young people.
10) REVIVE HOUSING: I’ll submit a plan to Congress to phase out within several years Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s federal housing role, reform and make transparent the Federal Reserve, and allow families whose homes are “underwater” to deduct losses from the sale of their home in order to better get a fresh start in difficult economic times.
________________________________
You may not like his ideas, but please, don’t tell us he has none.
The women in Florida didn't:
“Among women, Texas Rep. Ron Paul won six percent, Gingrich won 29 percent, Romney won 51 percent and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum 13 percent.”
Link: http://dailycaller.com/2012/01/31/women-abandon-gingrich-this-time-by-22-point-margin/
Besides, Paul will stay in and keep splitting the vote.
Newt has a plan, and that is to stay in until he just cannot any longer. That may be after the next round of states to vote; Especially the Southern states. We will see what happens.
But trust me on this, you would not like the result if Newt does drop out. Romney will likely win by bigger margins if that happens.
To be a Newt supporter one must look past all of his baggage.
The reason Santorum is beating Newt is because he has real American family values...
...but so does Mitt.
So if Newt dropped out, I suspect that 80% of his supporters would go to Santorum because they are the two most conservative candidates in the race.
However, if Santorum dropped out, I could see a large percentage going over (reluctantly) to Romney simply because he doesn’t have all of Newts baggage.
“As for Gingrich voters, I honestly don’t think most of them would go to Santorum. The man has no ideas, an unlikeable persona, and is just as big-government, nanny-state as Romney. So I don’t know where they’d go.”
Reluctantly I would go to Santorum. You accurately list Santorum’s deficiencies, but he is an acceptable compromise at this desperate time, whereas Romney is an utter capitulation and a crime against one’s conscience.
Newt and Rick have to start performing better than they have been across the board to give both of them enough delegates to merge into a majority at the convention. And I mean according to type of state. They have shrink the percentage Mitt's been getting in the south, northeast, west, etc. Maybe just by a handful, but it has to be done, and they certainly can't let Mitt increase his percentage takes.
1) Unlikeable person — WOMEN actually vote for him more than men.
Uh, what are you smoking? Have you looked at the poll results? Women never vote for a conservative more than men do. Romney gets the women vote advantage, but Newt and Rick don't.
“I despise Romney.”
Take a number and wait your turn.
:-)
Way to go Seek and Find. I’m voting Rick, but thought I might vote Newt If Rick did not make it. I wonder if the Newt fans would want us to vote romney if Rick drops out? The way they treat him and us, they don’t care. I’m getting to the point that I won’t vote Newt because of the hateful people who DO support him. I’ll have to go third party, because I won’t EVER EVER vote for romney.
There was a time I would painstakingly go to Newt.org and show you point by point how santorum has stolen most of his ideas from Newt, I don't do that anymore. It's not worth the time. But you can go to newt.org and look at solutions, legislative proposals, day one.
Santorum has taken to plagiarizing many of his speeches directly from Newt, it is really unseemly, but he's a good christian man so none of that matters. Santorum - the Republican Barack Obama - supported by people who will not see.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2856419/posts
The above link contains a graph in the first post showing the vote for Santorum by gender, in case you are interested.
There has always been a huge warning sign in what I see in Santorum. To me, he is like a combination of Elmer Gantry and Jimmy Carter snd no matter how hard I try, I cannot shake that image of him.
Even his campaign reminds me of a P.T. Barnum operation, with Ring Master Rick and his troupe of Flying Santorums, all traveling at the expense of his campaign supporters, and performing for the rubes across the countryside.
I have no doubt that when the chips are down, Rick will sell out his supporters and form a ticket with Romney. It means nothing to him that most of his supporters are vehemently against a Romney Presidency, because it has never been about them, it has Always been about Rick.
Like the shifty eyed snake oil seller he is, he will give his family values speech, tell them they must take one for the team, and like good little lemmings they will fall for it and run to the polls for Rick, convinced that his alliance with Mitt must, after all, be a Holy one.
Like P.T, Barnum said, “There’s a sucker born every minute”. Rick is counting on it.
For me, the important thing is NOT who originally had the idea but WHAT POLICIES he supports.
FOR INSTANCE,
Who cares if Newt originally thought of the repeal of the EPA rule on CO2 emissions that have already shut down six power plants and furlowed 500 workers.
Who cares if Newt originally thought of ordering a review of all regulations, making sure these regulations use sound science and common-sense cost benefit analysis.
THE IMPORTANT THING IS SANTORUM SUPPORTS THE RIGHT POLICIES FOR THIS COUNTRY EVEN IF THE IDEAS WERE NOT ORIGINALLY HIS.
Take Paul Ryan’s Medicare reform plan, those were his ideas. Santorum is on record as publicly supporting the plan ( and the plan isn’t his to begin with ). Why would we hold it against him if he did?
This isn’t a college essay where plagiarism is a no-no, this is about IDEAS THAT NEED TO BE IMPLEMENTED FOR THE GOOD OF THIS COUNTRY.
I don’t care who rips off whose ideas, as long as they are the right ones that will be good for this country.
I’ll be against Santorum only if he is on record as opposing fiscal policies that are good for this country, but not until.
So please Rick, take as many good policy ideas from others as much as you want. I don’t care if they were originally your own or not. JUST IMPLEMENT THEM.
My opinion is that Gingrich and Santorum represent different factions of the conservative vote, and that the overlap is much less than most FR observers think. A Gingrich droput would probably send more voters to Romney or Paul than to Santorum.
RE: I have no doubt that when the chips are down, Rick will sell out his supporters and form a ticket with Romney
There have been many FReepers who have observed that Ron Paul has NEVER attacked Romney even as he has attacked every other candidate from the time Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann were still campaigning.
The reason? They have formed a mutual agreement for Romney to choose Ron’s son — RAND PAUL to be his VP.
So, forget Santorum being the VP, two candidates from the Northeast ain’t gonna help the ticket.
Romney needs a Southerner and Rand Paul looks like he fits the bill.
“...Honestly I’m not sure Romney will still be in the race in June. He raised $11 million last month but he spent a lot more than that.”
Your lips to God’s ear!
I have been researching something that I found on The Ulstermans Report, a casual remark dropped by a Wall Street Insider. I will send it to you via private mail.
the other scary thing, Santorum hasn’t even begun to be vetted, there’s barely been one layer pulled away. And it is not going to be pretty.
The major chasm between Newt and santorum supporters - Newt’s supporters know about his sins, his baggage, his missteps. they forgive him, and understand how the work of Christ changes a man. Most, if not all, of santorum supporters haven’t moved beyond believing he is God’s man, a principled conservative with character, whose worst sin is jaywalking. by the time Santorum gets vetted, it will be too late, and he will go down, leaving guess who?
This was the dynamic of 2008 for the dems, people were so blinded by a young unvetted politician, with a little senatorial experience, who spoke their language, and no amount of talking could get them to deal with reality.
I think Mitt is going to need Rick’s delegates and vice versa. PA and Mass are very different in their political demographics. Rick appeals to the Bible Belt that doesn’t support Mitt.
Gingrich is pro-life and pro-2nd Amendment. The only difference I can tell is that certain folks think Gingrich is pig for committing adultery, which they cannot forgive, and ignore some of the crapola Santorum had done that is NOT pro-life!
Go figure! I believe the MSM has had a huge impact on this election. The liberals/progressives fear, really truly fear Gingrich, so he is getting more negative exposure by the Meida than Santorum ever will receive.
I did go to newt.org His ideas are generic ideas that every candidate in this race used one or more of......and Newt did not invent them. For Instance: How is Rick stealling Newts ideas? There budgets are so different?
Rick: If elected, Santorum pledges to cut $5 trillion in federal spending over 5 years.
He plans to freeze spending for 5 years on defense as well as on social programs like Medicaid, Housing, Education, Job Training, and Food Stamps.
He wants to pass a Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution, which would cap government spending at 18% of GDP. This would force the President and Congress to balance the budget like Governors do.
Santorum believes in a return to the Reagan era pro-growth tax rate. He wants to simplify personal income taxes by cutting the number of tax rates to just two, 10% and 28%.
He plans to simplify the tax code, reduce overall taxes by eliminating the Estate Tax, and cut middle income taxes by eliminating the Alternative Minimum Tax.
He wants to reduce taxes for families by tripling the personal deduction for each child and by eliminating marriage tax penalties.
He has pledged to cut the corporate income tax rate in half, from 33.5% to 17.5%.
New: Stop the 2013 tax increases to promote stability in the economy. Job creation improved after Congress extended tax relief for two years in December. We should make the rates permanent.
Make the United States the most desirable location for new business investment through a bold series of tax cuts, including: Eliminating the capital gains tax to make American entrepreneurs more competitive against those in other countries; Dramatically reducing the corporate income tax (among highest in the world) to 12.5%; Allowing for 100% expensing of new equipment to spur innovation and American manufacturing; Ending the death tax permanently.
Move toward an optional flat tax of 15% that would allow Americans the freedom to choose to file their taxes on a postcard, saving hundreds of billions in unnecessary costs each year. This optional flat tax system will preserve deductions on charitable giving and home ownership, and create a new personal deduction of $12,000 for every American. This deduction is well above the current poverty level, ensuring that this new system does not unfairly target the poor.
Strengthen the dollar by returning to the Reagan-era monetary policies that stopped runaway inflation and reforming the Federal Reserve to promote transparency.
Remove obstacles to job creation imposed by destructive and ineffective regulations, programs and bureaucracies. Steps include: Repealing the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which did nothing to prevent the financial crisis and is holding companies back from making new investments in the U.S; Repealing the Community Reinvestment Act, the abuse of which helped cause the financial crisis; Repealing the Dodd-Frank Law which is killing small independent banks, crippling loans to small businesses and crippling home sales; Breaking up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, moving their smaller successors off government guarantees and into the free market; Replacing the Environmental Protection Agency with an Environmental Solutions Agency that works collaboratively with local government and industry to achieve better results; and Modernizing the Food and Drug Administration to get lifesaving medicines and technologies to patients faster.
Implement an American energy policy that removes obstacles to responsible energy development and creates jobs in the United States.
Balance the budget by growing the economy, controlling spending, implementing money saving reforms, and replacing destructive policies and regulatory agencies with new approaches.
Repeal and replace Obamacare with a pro-jobs, pro-responsibility health plan that puts doctors and patients in charge of health decisions instead of bureaucrats.
Fundamental reform of entitlement programs with the advice and help of the American people. Read an extended white paper on this here.
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