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Romney's Fuzzy Math for a Fuzzy Campaign
http://www.newsmax.com ^ | By Christopher Ruddy | Thursday, 08 Mar 2012 10:00 PM

Posted on 03/08/2012 10:55:22 PM PST by Christie at the beach

Romney's Fuzzy Math for a Fuzzy Campaign

Christopher Ruddy's Perspective: I am continually amazed how those at the Romney campaign continue to act victorious when they have such a poor case to make about cinching the nomination.

Case in point was yesterday's release of a memo that Romney aides claimed proves that only an "act of God" can prevent Romney from getting the nomination. The memo comes on the heels of Romney's public suggestion that the other candidates should get out of the race.

The Romney team argues that their candidate needs 48 percent of the remaining delegates to win the nomination, while their leading contender Rick Santorum would need 65 percent and Newt Gingrich 70 percent.

Sure, it's unlikely that Santorum or Gingrich can pull that off. But it's just as unlikely for Romney to get 48 percent of the remaining delegates.

This means that Romney will fall short of the 1,144 delegates.

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/mitt-romney-santorum-gingrich/2012/03/08/id/431848

(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections
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1 posted on 03/08/2012 10:55:28 PM PST by Christie at the beach
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To: Christie at the beach

This past week, one campaign strategist with ties to the Romney campaign laid out Mitt’s problem to me. A back of the envelope count shows the likely number of delegates Romney will have by April 1, due to the proportion distribution of candidates up to that point.

After April 1, a winner-takes-all system kicks in. My source says that if Romney wins every single primary after April 1, his tally goes up to about 1,200 delegates, making him the winner.

“So if Romney stumbles and loses one or more primaries, he likely falls short of the 1,144,” the source said.

As we can see, there is a good likelihood Romney will lose one or more primaries after April 1. If either Santorum or Gingrich are still in the race by May, Romney will undoubtedly lose the delegate-rich state of Texas.

To date, Romney’s performance has been weak. Take for example, his Super Tuesday results. He narrowly won Ohio after outspending Rick Santorum by 12-to-1.

Overall, Romney has spent over $60 million, largely in negative attack ads against Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, and what does he have to show for it? Not much.


2 posted on 03/08/2012 10:56:59 PM PST by Christie at the beach (I like Newt and would love to see political dead bodies on the floor.)
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To: Christie at the beach

He lost Iowa.

He lost South Carolina.

He lost Missouri and Minnesota.

So far he’s lost almost every Southern state. On Tuesday we saw landslides for Gingrich in Georgia and Santorum in Tennessee. And states that should be “easy” Mitt wins, like his home state of Michigan, he only squeaked by after spending millions in attack ads there.

The state he’s won handily, he did so by running brutally negative ads against his fellow Republicans.

Ed Rollins, the genius behind Reagan’s brilliant 1984 re-election, said on Fox News the overall voting trends for Romney are not good.

Rollins observes that Romney has done really well in blue-state primaries. But Republicans won’t win these states this November. Rollins adds that Romney loses badly in many red states — ones he must carry in November.

So Romney has almost all the money, all the big endorsements from the Washington and New York insiders, and a well-oiled campaign machine, and yet he’s being beaten by Rick Santorum who has a clipboard and whistle, and by Newt Gingrich who has a podium.

What’s the message here? A supermajority of the Republican party — about 65 percent at this moment — either don’t want Mitt Romney or are not comfortable with him as their nominee.

The leaders who make up the conservative movement across the nation consistently tell me the same thing: Mitt talks a conservative game, but he has yet to walk it.

The truth is that his policy advisers and campaign staff are filled with moderates who are out of step with the base of the Republican Party.


3 posted on 03/08/2012 10:58:02 PM PST by Christie at the beach (I like Newt and would love to see political dead bodies on the floor.)
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To: Christie at the beach

One Romney adviser told The Wall Street Journal that as president he would consider doing away with “carried interest” which drives investment and entrepreneurship in the country. The Journal said Romney was embarrassed by the fact he pays so little tax himself.

Another Romney aide, a healthcare adviser, has stated a Romney administration will keep key parts of Obamacare.

On the campaign trail, the candidate tells a different story, one that is consistently Reaganesque and vehemently opposed to programs like Obamacare.

But the Reagan picture Romney paints isn’t backed up with a cast of conservative characters around him that would demonstrate his intent.

“People are policy” and conservatives have needed that reassurance from Romney for good reason. Romney has flip-flopped on so many key issues so often, he needs not a new Reagan speech but a Reagan team.

For those who don’t like to click on links/Full read.


4 posted on 03/08/2012 11:00:02 PM PST by Christie at the beach (I like Newt and would love to see political dead bodies on the floor.)
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To: Christie at the beach

“Ed Rollins tells News Max Romany can’t win in Nov.”

Which is precisely why he’s the Dems and the lame-stream media’s favorite GOP candidate.


5 posted on 03/08/2012 11:02:13 PM PST by ReformationFan
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To: Christie at the beach

Certainly conservative opinions are not on the tip of his tongue. He is always bending his ear to an aid to know what answer to give. Trying to game the decision.


6 posted on 03/08/2012 11:02:20 PM PST by RobbyS (Christus rex.)
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To: Christie at the beach

I wonder what Romney’s use of fuzzy math would mean for the budget should he defy all logic and actually become POTUS?


7 posted on 03/08/2012 11:05:51 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: Christie at the beach
—>>Another Romney aide, a healthcare adviser, has stated a Romney administration will keep key parts of Obamacare.

We really need to get behind one candidate so at the convention that person has a good chance to knock off Romney. Romney is already weak. In a few more months, he will be worse to where the GOP cannot save him, I am hoping. ( Though, you know they will still want him as the nominee- I think we have not seen anything yet)

8 posted on 03/08/2012 11:06:07 PM PST by Christie at the beach (I like Newt and would love to see political dead bodies on the floor.)
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To: Christie at the beach

How in hell can a conservative vote for this guy and think he wont screw us?He will and I will not be played.


9 posted on 03/08/2012 11:07:41 PM PST by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: Christie at the beach

Did you see the Shelby start the Senate Republican backslide yesterday. I’m paraphrasing, but it was something like “it would be too hard”.


10 posted on 03/08/2012 11:10:51 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: HANG THE EXPENSE

Who are the people voting for him- I suspect, liberal Republicans- Bush republicans-democrats-liberals-the liberals who are causing chaos-I am in several Tea Party groups and 2 conservative groups. We don’t have anyone supporting him just because of Romneycare/socialized medicine-the VERY thing President Reagan warned us about. Romney didn’t even like Reagan. He cannot be our nominee.


11 posted on 03/08/2012 11:15:50 PM PST by Christie at the beach (I like Newt and would love to see political dead bodies on the floor.)
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To: trappedincanuckistan

No, I didn’t -what happened?


12 posted on 03/08/2012 11:16:52 PM PST by Christie at the beach (I like Newt and would love to see political dead bodies on the floor.)
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To: Christie at the beach

Socialized medicine is the tipping point. Most government programs involve segments of the population whereas it affects everyone. Two of the most dangerous threats to freedom are public schools and socialized medicine (along with the progressive income tax).


13 posted on 03/08/2012 11:20:48 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: trappedincanuckistan
->Socialized medicine is the tipping point. Most government programs involve segments of the population whereas it affects everyone. Two of the most dangerous threats to freedom are public schools and socialized medicine (along with the progressive income tax).

Amen. Great summary. Just hoping enough people wake up.
Most of the conservatives and independents know
what is coming. The uniformed may hand us Romney/then Obama. You know, I believe it is going to take a strong warrior to withstand Obama's regime. I am praying it's Newt and if so, God gives him a guidance of steel and protection.

14 posted on 03/08/2012 11:27:34 PM PST by Christie at the beach (I like Newt and would love to see political dead bodies on the floor.)
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To: trappedincanuckistan

I didn’t see, do you have a link? Thanks in advance...


15 posted on 03/08/2012 11:30:32 PM PST by Irenic (The pencil sharpener and Elmer's glue is put away-- we've lost the red wheel barrow)
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To: Christie at the beach

Pooor Mittens is getting jammed. See you Myth at the August Convention when you lose it all.


16 posted on 03/08/2012 11:32:59 PM PST by Red Steel
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To: Christie at the beach

I just searched through my comments to find the thread, and couldn’t find it. Maybe it got pulled? I found it a bit of a difficult read, but it looked like the beginning of one of the Republican retreats I’ve been seeing for twenty years. Basically Richard Shelby said it would be difficult to repeal Obamacare because funding for other health care programs is tied into it. Something to that effect. I would say though that Shelby has been pretty vocal opposing Obamacare.


17 posted on 03/08/2012 11:39:40 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: trappedincanuckistan

sorry I should have posted to Irenic as well.


18 posted on 03/08/2012 11:41:23 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: Christie at the beach

Wow, he finally gets something right.


19 posted on 03/08/2012 11:43:39 PM PST by itsahoot (Stolen Elections, Not Just For Democrats Anymore.)
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To: trappedincanuckistan

Thanks so much for the update.


20 posted on 03/08/2012 11:46:08 PM PST by Christie at the beach (I like Newt and would love to see political dead bodies on the floor.)
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To: trappedincanuckistan

The main reason is we won’t have the votes in the Senate to get rid of it. We need 60 votes, isn’t going to happen. It is a done deal. Obamacare is forever, doesn’t matter who the POTUS is.


21 posted on 03/08/2012 11:46:31 PM PST by PghBaldy (Once again, Obama proves he is not an honest broker. He can't be trusted.)
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To: PghBaldy

Your killing my buzz man.


22 posted on 03/08/2012 11:49:55 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: trappedincanuckistan

You’re.


23 posted on 03/08/2012 11:50:24 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: Christie at the beach

Romney is going to lose Alabama, Kansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Kentucky,Texas, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia with the other states he already has in the loss column. Just wow.


24 posted on 03/09/2012 12:01:06 AM PST by My Favorite Headache (In a world where I feel so small, I can't stop thinking big. Vote Newt!)
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To: Christie at the beach
Rollins observes that Romney has done really well in blue-state primaries. But Republicans won’t win these states this November.

Take away line from the article.

Beyond the states that Romney has won (which he will not win in the general election), the great preponderance of counties he has won fall into the same category -- unwinnable in November. Surely the Republican establishment is looking at the same maps as Ed Rollins.

25 posted on 03/09/2012 12:13:53 AM PST by The Citizen Soldier (America needs Gingrich in 2012 about as much as England needed Churchill in 1940!)
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To: HANG THE EXPENSE
How in hell can a conservative vote for this guy and think he wont screw us?He will and I will not be played.

Personally, I pledged right here at FR - - twice - - that I WILL NEVER vote for Romney or may God strike me dead. (shrug) So that's that.

Romney simply cannot be trusted.

This is an old cartoon, so don't forget the "Pro-Communist Health Care" and "Anti-Communist Health Care" podiums. Oh! And the "Pro-Government Union" and "Anti-Government Union", and the "Pro-Global Warming" and "Anti-Global Warming" podiums, too:


26 posted on 03/09/2012 12:18:05 AM PST by Lancey Howard
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To: All

!!!!!!!


27 posted on 03/09/2012 12:24:57 AM PST by Golden Gate
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To: Christie at the beach
romney desparate, romney desparate
28 posted on 03/09/2012 12:40:43 AM PST by FrankR (You are only enslaved to the extent of the entitlements you receive.)
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To: The Citizen Soldier
I'd bet anything Romney will win the California primary, too.
Meaningless.

Tuesday night I watched the Fox News coverage of the Ohio "too close to call" primary and was stunned at how the red-purple county-by-county map showed Romney winning in and around the counties dominated by the big, concentrated Democrat parasite nests ("cities"), Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati, while Santorum won all the rest. It looked just like a typical blue-red county-by-county presidential race map, with the rat winning all the same kind of counties Romney won.


29 posted on 03/09/2012 12:43:20 AM PST by Lancey Howard
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To: The Citizen Soldier
Beyond the states that Romney has won (which he will not win in the general election), the great preponderance of counties he has won fall into the same category -- unwinnable in November.

You noticed, too.

Davidson County (Nashville) and Shelby (Memphis) in Tennessee.

Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Franklin (Columbus) Counties in Ohio.

Romney wins where Republicans lose. And loses where Republicans win.

30 posted on 03/09/2012 12:49:12 AM PST by okie01 (/i>On Parade)
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To: Christie at the beach
   One Romney adviser told The Wall Street Journal that as president he would consider doing away with “carried interest” which drives investment and entrepreneurship in the country. The Journal said Romney was embarrassed by the fact he pays so little tax himself.

   Another Romney aide, a healthcare adviser, has stated a Romney administration will keep key parts of Obamacare.


  Is there still time for Romney to switch parties and run as a Democrat against Obama?
31 posted on 03/09/2012 12:52:43 AM PST by Maurice Tift (You can't stop the signal, Mal. You can never stop the signal.)
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To: The Citizen Soldier
Last Tuesday night the red-purple county-by-county map showed Romney winning in and around the counties dominated by the big, concentrated Democrat parasite nests ("cities"), Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati, while Santorum won all the rest. It looked just like a typical blue-red county-by-county presidential race map where the rat wins mostly the same kind of counties Romney won.

Romney - Santorum, 2012

.

Obama - McCain, 2008

32 posted on 03/09/2012 12:55:33 AM PST by Lancey Howard
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To: HANG THE EXPENSE

If Rom gets the nomination, and if you then don’t vote fo him, you’ve already been played.

Ed Rollins has been on CNN kissing liberal butt for so long, it’s ridiculous.

The GOP nominee will win the red states. It’s the tossups that need to be in play.


33 posted on 03/09/2012 1:07:54 AM PST by Williams (Honey Badger Don't Care)
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To: Christie at the beach

Does anyone actually believe that if Romney got over 1,000 votes, but fell short of 1,144, the delegates at the convention (also known as the “Republican Establishment”) would award the nomination to Ricky or Newt, or even some as yet unnamed (and unvetted) dark horse? I don’t like the SOB (Mitt) either, but if he gets to 1,000 before the convention, it’s time for the other candidates to make their platform demands, and step aside.


34 posted on 03/09/2012 1:58:28 AM PST by pawdoggie
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To: My Favorite Headache
Money bag Mitt stuffed my mailbox.

He didn't try to fire me, or tell me how much he hates me.

He needs to stick to his DNC talking points memo.

35 posted on 03/09/2012 2:34:18 AM PST by rawcatslyentist (Mohammedan law every woman must belong to a man will delay the end of slavery until Islam has ceased)
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To: Maurice Tift
>"Is there still time for Romney to switch parties and run as a Democrat against Obama?"

What do yo mean still time?

He IS a dem running against Mr 0b0t0. Not very fast, or out to win mind you. He is a dem. He wants to run against Stinky.

36 posted on 03/09/2012 2:38:24 AM PST by rawcatslyentist (Mohammedan law every woman must belong to a man will delay the end of slavery until Islam has ceased)
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To: Christie at the beach

BOTH SANTORUM AND NEWT HAVE TO STAY IN THE RACE TO SIPHON VOTES AND DELEGATES AWAY FROM ROMNEY BY GIVING REPUBLICAN VOTERS MORE ANTI-ROMNEY CHOICES TO VOTE FOR. SOME MIGHT LIKE SANTORUM BUT NOT NEWT AND VICE VERSA.

THE COMMON OBJECTIVE IS TO DENY PRO-ABORTION, PRO-HOMOSEXUAL, PRO-FEDERAL-CONTROL HEALTHCARE CANDIDATE FROM GETTING NOMINATED.

SEAN HANNITY APPEARS TO FAVOR ROMNEY AND IT COMES AS NO SURPRISE. RADIO STATIONS HE IS ON OWNED BY ROMNEY.


37 posted on 03/09/2012 3:43:43 AM PST by God-fear-republican
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To: trappedincanuckistan

Is this the link?

http://thehill.com/blogs/healthwatch/health-reform-implementation/214663-republicans-worry-about-health-law-repeals-impact-on-health-programs


38 posted on 03/09/2012 3:48:53 AM PST by sthguard (The DNC theme song: "All You Need is Guv")
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To: God-fear-republican

I will pray for your caps lock key.


39 posted on 03/09/2012 3:49:12 AM PST by don-o (He will not share His glory and He will NOT be mocked! Blessed be the name of the Lord forever.)
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To: ReformationFan

Neither Romney, Santorum or Gingrich can win in November.

I hope the convention delegates appreciate this and opt for a fresh face in November!


40 posted on 03/09/2012 4:30:33 AM PST by catman67
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To: Williams

So voting for the loser to the last loser is a winning proposition? Thats rich.


41 posted on 03/09/2012 4:42:03 AM PST by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: ReformationFan

President Obama offered his likely Republican opponent Mitt Romney “good luck” for Super Tuesday.

Asked at a news conference if he’d like to respond to Romney’s comments calling Obama the “most feckless president since Carter,” Obama said: “Good luck tonight.”

After the quip got laughs from the press gallery, Obama smiled and said, “No, really. Really.”

THE _RESIDENT GETS IT!!!! the Republican establishment are too stupid to get it.

42 posted on 03/09/2012 4:45:04 AM PST by Vaquero ("an armed society is a polite society" Robert A. Heinlein)
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To: Lancey Howard

I am in total agreement.


43 posted on 03/09/2012 4:51:21 AM PST by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: Williams

I dont see it that way.I dont vote for liberals of either party.Moderates dont win.


44 posted on 03/09/2012 4:55:01 AM PST by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: Christie at the beach
I've been saying Romney is not going to be the nominee.

Then I've been thinking I'm going to have to eat my words.

I'm hoping that I don't have to eat my words.

45 posted on 03/09/2012 5:36:44 AM PST by Tribune7 (GAS WAS $1.85 per gallon on the day Obama was Inaugurated! - - freeper Gaffer)
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To: Christie at the beach

It should be painfully obvious that Romney can’t win in November. He has been running for POTUS for the last 8 years and has spent millions in campaign organizations in key states like Iowa, yet Santorum comes from no place to take Iowa, nearly wins in Romney’s home state of Michigan. Even in the states Romney carried, his wins were largely because the other candidates spent little time or money there. Romney cannot close the deal with rank and file Republicans how the heck can he sell independents and disaffected Democrats in November?


46 posted on 03/09/2012 5:54:01 AM PST by The Great RJ ("The problem with socialism is that pretty soon you run out of other people's money" M. Thatcher)
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To: don-o

Newt’s brilliant strategy: focus in the south to win enough delegates to deny Romney nomination, then win at the borkered convention where his voice can be heard without any negative ads and MSM smear.


47 posted on 03/09/2012 6:20:49 AM PST by God-fear-republican
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To: sthguard

Yes.


48 posted on 03/09/2012 9:10:58 AM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: Christie at the beach

HOw many delegates did Romney get in Virginia?

There was only him and Ron Paul on the ballot & the statewide Virginia turnout was only about 5%......The lowest ever known there.

Seems to me, he better not be crowing too loud about winning Virginia!!!!


49 posted on 03/09/2012 2:51:16 PM PST by ridesthemiles
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To: Christie at the beach

Overall, Romney has spent over $60 million, largely in negative attack ads “””

I think he has surpassed the $60 million mark. He supposedly spent $25 million in Florida alone——and got 50 delegates. That is about 1 HALF MILLION per delegate.

IF the $25 million Florida number is correct, I think he is well above $60 million by now.


50 posted on 03/09/2012 2:53:18 PM PST by ridesthemiles
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