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Romney Really Might Not Have the Delegates by June
Real Clear Poltics (hat tip - The Weekly Standard) ^ | 03/09/12 | Sean Trende

Posted on 03/10/2012 3:43:48 PM PST by jocon307

The Republican primary has revealed distinct geographic tendencies. Mitt Romney is dominant in New England and in the West. Newt Gingrich has run well in the Deep South, while Rick Santorum has done well in caucus states, the Great Plains, and the peripheral South (it remains to be seen whether his support has bled into Gingrich's strength in the Deep South). That leaves the Midwest as a battleground between Romney and Santorum.

While Romney had a good night on Super Tuesday, the truth is that he did nothing to alter the basic regional nature of his support....

Given the structure of the primary season, this portends a long slog to the nomination, and makes it difficult for Romney to wrap up the nomination early on. Consider the schedule, and the following possible outcomes:

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: gingrich; gopnomination; romney; santorum
The article goes on with detailed speculation regarding delegate math through the end of the primaries.

I thought folks here might find it interesting.

The author amusingly ponders who votes in the Republican primaries in some 99.999% hard left districts. I wonder about those folks too, although at points in my life I have probably been one of them.

1 posted on 03/10/2012 3:43:51 PM PST by jocon307
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To: jocon307
Mitt Romney is dominant in New England and in the West.

I'll be danged, just like 0bama.

2 posted on 03/10/2012 3:46:31 PM PST by EGPWS (Trust in God, question everyone else)
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To: jocon307

This is wonderful. There is real hope that we can beat obama with a real conservative and not the father of medical insurance mandate who believes in government single plan communist style health care. We must drive him off!!


3 posted on 03/10/2012 3:48:23 PM PST by tpuskett
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To: carriage_hill

Ping for post #2.

Deja vu all over again.


4 posted on 03/10/2012 3:51:41 PM PST by lightman (Adjutorium nostrum (+) in nomine Domini--nevertheless, Vote Santorum!)
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To: tpuskett

“We must drive him off!!”

LOL, I love your enthusiasm!

I honestly think Santorum is the guy to get behind (and hey, full disclosure I sent him the small pittance I can afford the other day, first donation of the season!) I don’t want to insult any Gingrich supporters and on another thread some freepers are saying it is better to have more candidates in, and that could be true because one does not know how Gringrich supporters would re-align.

So, I don’t know.

I do feel sure about this, Santorum is the ONLY person who can offer a real alternative to Obama, what I mean is who can appeal to people other than those Obama appeals to, the blue collar people.

However, at the risk of FR ire, I will say that someone somewhere (I think it was Michael Barone actually) made a good point that Romney has appeal to up-scale suburbanites and could bring those folks back to the “R” side.

So, I don’t know, we’d need some high-end surveys and math done here. I think the suburbanites are more likely to vote than the blue-collar types, but I don’t know if there are more of them, or where they are and if, for example in NY or NJ or IL if the suburbanites really can tip the state other than the way the big city Dem machines want it to go.


5 posted on 03/10/2012 4:00:08 PM PST by jocon307
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To: jocon307

If the author’s prediction is correct, by June he’ll have 1,071 out of 1,144 delegates needed to get the nomination. With that number, it’s very unlikely that deals or unbound delegates go to someone else. I’m not suggesting Romney already has the nomination wrapped. All of these are based on the assumption that the four candidates stayed in the race until June. If one withdraws, the math might change completely.


6 posted on 03/10/2012 4:01:37 PM PST by paudio (no tagline for now...)
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To: lightman

Left coast/ east coast - *liberalville*, with some big city areas in between, l. Yes, that’s the both of them, allright.


7 posted on 03/10/2012 4:05:28 PM PST by carriage_hill
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To: jocon307

Obama is the overflowing sewer in your house.

RINOmney is the mold growing in each and every wall.

One is - at first glance (or smell) much worse than the other.

But both will have the same result.

Flush them both to the liberal sewer from which they slimed.


8 posted on 03/10/2012 4:24:08 PM PST by Da Coyote
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To: jocon307

After reading this article, I have concluded that it is IMPERATIVE and to the COMPLETE BENEFIT to our side to have this go to a brokered convention.

Why?

Because the unprecedented media attention that the Republican convention will provide to the entire country will be unmeasurable. It will take away all the oxygen from any early campaigning opportunity that the Obamanistas will try to engage in, if they were to instead already have a defined target to hone in on.


9 posted on 03/10/2012 4:29:12 PM PST by LibFreeUSA (Pick Your Poison)
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To: paudio

I do not think either Romney or Gingrich would trade their delegates at a brokered convention for a VP slot but Santorum would. Should Romney come up a bit short on delegates when the convention rolls around I would not rule out the prospect of a Romney/Santorum ticket with Santorum bartering delegates for the slot. Santorum is young and as VP he knows he would be in a better position for another swing at the grand prize down the road.


10 posted on 03/10/2012 4:32:42 PM PST by chuckee
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To: chuckee
If he does take a VP slot with Romney he will stain his “conservative claim” worse then when he endorsed Romney and Spector. If Mitt won and governed conservatively and turned this battleship around Rick would be in a great position. But if Mitt does what he always does and governs like a left wing moderate then Rick is toast.
11 posted on 03/10/2012 4:47:25 PM PST by liberty or death
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To: liberty or death

“If he does take a VP slot with Romney he will stain his “conservative claim”

Although I support Santorum, I think he is a politician first and a conservative second. I think he is as surprised as anyone that he is a viable nominee having started with no money or resources. He would be super thrilled if he were nominated for the top slot but I think he would also be happy if his hard work did not go for naught and he was able to salvage the VP slot for his efforts if he did not garner the top slot. IMHO


12 posted on 03/10/2012 4:58:48 PM PST by chuckee
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To: LibFreeUSA

Watching Huck on Faux. Had to turn it off cuz the shilling and inevitability for Mittens continues.


13 posted on 03/10/2012 5:24:24 PM PST by Mountain Mary ("This is OUR country and WE will decide"... Mark Levin)
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To: chuckee

Santorum isn’t as funny (whacked out) as Joe Biden ~ but with Joe as his predecessor no one will notice a thing.


14 posted on 03/10/2012 5:24:54 PM PST by muawiyah
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To: chuckee

Romney is first of all A SALESMAN. If he thought it would advance his interests he’d sell family members.


15 posted on 03/10/2012 5:26:42 PM PST by muawiyah
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To: LibFreeUSA; All

A Brokered Convention will definitely be a novelty that will capture the attention of the American people. And, wouldn’t it be wonderful if a fresh, new, Conservative face (like Paul Ryan) came out of Tampa as the nominee. After months of Kook-daddy and the 3 Stooges; how refreshing that would be.


16 posted on 03/10/2012 5:47:16 PM PST by no dems (No RINO-Rom, no Kook-Daddy and no "out of touch" Rev. Rick........Gingrich.... YES!!!)
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To: chuckee

This ticket, Romney/Santorum has been rumoured by GOP E insiders in PA for over month. Rick will betray his not-Romney voters for his own ambition.

The only way that this might be headed off would be if a Newt/Rick alliance could form, but if Rick keeps taking personal potshots at Newt, I don’t see it happening.


17 posted on 03/10/2012 5:48:06 PM PST by conservativejoy ("Where there is no vision, the people perish." Proverbs 29:18)
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To: chuckee; All

Moot point. Marco Rubio will be the GOP VP nominee. Without him we lose Florida and whoever loses Florida, loses the White House. And, anyone who doesn’t believe me when I say we must have Florida to win the Presidency, I’d be willing to wager some of my very, hard-earned money that I busted my butt to earn, if you wanna bet.


18 posted on 03/10/2012 5:50:11 PM PST by no dems (No RINO-Rom, no Kook-Daddy and no "out of touch" Rev. Rick........Gingrich.... YES!!!)
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To: chuckee

Yes, I agree. I think the smart parlay right now is probably Romney/Santorum. But Santorum risks being “quayled” so who knows if he’d really go for it.

I actually think a good choice for veep might be Suzanne Martinez the gov. of New Mexico. Female, hispanic, very conservative, former prosecutor law & order type.

I don’t think Rubio will go for it, I think he thinks his main chance will come later, and I wouldn’t disagree with him.


19 posted on 03/10/2012 5:53:36 PM PST by jocon307
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To: no dems

Based on what I know of Paul Ryan now, I could support him. He got high praise from Newt for his budget plan.

Well, we can dream. I wonder if the RNC realizes that there will be an exodus from the party if they force Romney into the nomination? I think the DNC realizes it and has been hoping for Romney all along.


20 posted on 03/10/2012 5:53:49 PM PST by conservativejoy ("Where there is no vision, the people perish." Proverbs 29:18)
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To: jocon307

The author amusingly ponders who votes in the Republican primaries in some 99.999% hard left districts.


Raising my little hand!!


21 posted on 03/10/2012 6:53:16 PM PST by Yaelle (Santorum 2012 - we need a STEADY conservative President)
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To: jocon307

You are right. If we want a conservative who can win, it’s Santorum. If you want a ton of Dems seriously unhappy with Obama, you want Romney. A lot of liberal or apolitical Jews would vote Romney in the general. They want him for the same reason we don’t. He’s not conservative.


22 posted on 03/10/2012 6:55:35 PM PST by Yaelle (Santorum 2012 - we need a STEADY conservative President)
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To: LibFreeUSA

Another question: could we bring about a brokered convention? I don’t think it’s within our control. It would be more controllable to have one drop out, or to throw the conservative vote to one. And we see how hard that is. No one wants to vote for the “other” guy.

So I guess we get Romney, even in Alabama and Mississippi. Because we are too stupid or stubborn to coalesce.


23 posted on 03/10/2012 6:59:11 PM PST by Yaelle (Santorum 2012 - we need a STEADY conservative President)
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To: no dems

Rubio on the ticket would really make it easier to vote for Romney or Santorum. Newt/Rubio -—at this point, like Christmas morning!


24 posted on 03/10/2012 7:03:24 PM PST by riri (Plannedopolis-look it up. It's how the elites plan for US to live.)
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To: jocon307
Yes, I agree. I think the smart parlay right now is probably Romney/Santorum. But Santorum risks being “quayled” so who knows if he’d really go for it.

If all you care about is "winning," draft Hillary Clinton at the convention. Because values and policies don't matter.

Romney starts out with none of the base and is forced to play an uphill battle trying to peel off the same demographics that are Obama's core. Bad idea. Moderates lose. Not to mention, Romney has NOTHING in his stump speech except "fixing the economy." The jobs reports for the last 3 months were revised up to look fantastic. The economy's getting better and we won't be able to run on it most likely. Which is fine, since actual conservative Republicans can win elections on other issues. But Romney can't. Obamacare would become the major issue and he is completely neutered on arguing for the philosophy of keeping the government out of our lives by Romneycare. He believes in the liberal welfare state wholeheartedly and absolutely no one believes he's a social conservative, his supporters or detractors. He is Obama lite, pure and simple, and cannot win against the real thing.

Newt already mentioned Martinez as a possible V.P. pick for him. I don't know much about her. Obviously he's mentioned Rubio too. I think going for Hispanics is a big mistake against Obama. They will never desert Obama. The non-white Hispanics which make up the vast majority of them identify with Obama because of his skin color. Republicans can get Hispanic votes, but only when the Democrat is white, not a "person of color." In the age of "blatinos" and other race mixed people, a new racial divide is emerging, "people of color" (as the MSM calls them "globals") and whites. It's culturally true and the Democrats will be pushing the "people of color" vs. whites meme hardcore.

The ticket to win is Newt/Santorum or Santorum/Newt. The conservative contrast with Obama is there, both of them can connect to the middle class/blue collar that Romney can't, and they have credentials and a track record backing EVERY conservative principle. They can cede Florida to the Dems while picking up PA and other Midwest/blue collar states. Newt has the ability to communicate and explain why conservative ideas are best and Rick has "nice guy" appeal.

25 posted on 03/10/2012 7:20:58 PM PST by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: riri

Newt/Rubio -—at this point, like Christmas morning!
_______________________________________________________________
That would be better than Christmas morning.


26 posted on 03/10/2012 7:24:16 PM PST by no dems (No RINO-Rom, no Kook-Daddy and no "out of touch" Rev. Rick........Gingrich.... YES!!!)
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To: JediJones; All
Obviously he's (Newt) mentioned Rubio too. I think going for Hispanics is a big mistake against Obama. They will never desert Obama. The non-white Hispanics which make up the vast majority of them identify with Obama because of his skin color.

Ah...ye do err my friend. First of all, we don't just need Rubio for the Hispanic vote. We need him to carry Florida. Whoever wins Florida, wins the White House and if you'd like to put some money on that in a wager, I'm ready to put my hard-earned money where my mouth is. Secondly,......

......Obozo does not have the Hispanic vote in his pocket. Like the Black Community with 16% Unemployment, youth and college grads who can't find jobs and millions of others who were duped by Obozo in 2008, they are NOT happy with Obama. He promised Comprehensive Immigration Reform in his first year of Presidency. He has not delivered!!! Hispanics have to pay high gas prices, face forcloseures and layoffs just like everybody else. And,contrary to what you said......

.....THEY DO NOT RELATE TO OBOZO BECAUSE OF SKIN COLOR LIKE BLACKS DO. AND IF I WAS HISPANIC I'D BE AWFULLY PISSED AT YOU FOR MAKING THAT STATEMENT.
27 posted on 03/10/2012 7:35:00 PM PST by no dems (No RINO-Rom, no Kook-Daddy and no "out of touch" Rev. Rick........Gingrich.... YES!!!)
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To: JediJones

The problem with Gingrich is his “unfavorables” are very high.

I agree with you wholeheartedly that Romney does not have the support of the base (how can you win without your base?) and will be vying for, basically, Obama voters, many of which he won’t win.

Santorum/Gingrich, or vice/versa would be OK by me, I”m just not sure the math is there for it.

But, let’s face it, winning in November is of paramount importance. We’ve got to get rid of Obama and the Dems in the Senate because we’ve got to repeal and replace Obamacare, RIGHT NOW, before it becomes entrenched.

And don’t forget the Supreme Court, some of those folks are o.l.d. and we cannot, cannot, must not have a Dem pres. replacing them.


28 posted on 03/10/2012 7:57:53 PM PST by jocon307
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To: no dems

Keep in mind I’m not talking about all Hispanics, just the ones who voted for Obummer in 2008. I don’t see many of them changing their vote.

You don’t seem to have been reading the media and polling on Hispanic support for Obama. This article lays it out. It says Rubio does help with some of them, but not an overwhelming amount. I agree he will help big with Florida just like any Senator would help with his home state. How do you win without Florida? Try the 2004 map and replace Florida with Pennsylvania. I’m not saying don’t try to appeal to Hispanics, but the payoff will not be big enough to justify playing a big card like the V.P. slot for it.

If you think 73% of Hispanics approving of Obama has nothing to do with race or color, you are hopelessly ignorant of racial politics in this country. Race obviously means something for the portion who said that they would consider voting for Republicans if Rubio was on the ticket. And you seem to be acknowledging this when you yourself say Rubio would help get Hispanic votes (just like Obama helped get black votes?). Whites are taught not to be racist by our educational system, but the exact opposite is true for all other races. Same deal with women. Men are taught not to be sexist, but the exact opposite is true for women.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2854921/posts

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sfl-poll-hispanic-obama-rubio-20120305,0,7065301.story

Hispanic voters in Florida and across the country give exceedingly high marks to President Barack Obama and overwhelmingly favor his re-election.

Almost one-quarter of U.S. Hispanic voters said they would be more willing to vote for a Republican if Rubio was on the ticket. The number rose to almost four in ten Florida voters, Fox News Latino reported.

The national poll of likely Hispanic voters indicated that 73 percent of them approved of Obama’s performance in office.

Without a Hispanic vice presidential candidate on the Republican ticket, Hispanic voters nationally favor Obama. In hypothetical head to head matchups with the four Republican presidential candidates, none would get more than 14 percent of the Hispanic vote in November.


29 posted on 03/10/2012 8:10:43 PM PST by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: jocon307
The problem with Gingrich is his “unfavorables” are very high.

Number one, polls mean NOTHING now. They are totally and completely worthless to use as a basis for picking electable candidates, and are quite possibly counterproductive. After all, Democrats can drive up someone's unfavorables if they perceive them as a greater threat. People are NOT paying attention so those vague impressions by the MSM drive such polls. The polls probably won't mean anything until after the conventions when people are paying attention. Unfavorables are a very soft polling statistic and soft indicator. Romney's unfavorables have gone up recently too. And I think Santorum's. Cheney's were always high. That statistic doesn't have much to do with who people would elect as President. If it did, you may as well not run this year, because people like Obama even when they disapprove of his job performance. If people think Newt will have better job performance than Obama, they'll vote for him even if they like Obama more personally.

30 posted on 03/10/2012 8:15:53 PM PST by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: JediJones

We’ll see. The thing that will hurt the GOP candidate with Hispanics the most is the harsh, anti-immigrant rhetoric taken on during the Primary. (Especially from Romney; trying to act like a tough guy.) The American Mexicans, who are citizens, do have a soft spot in their heart for the immigrants who are here illegally to escape life in Mexico. Rick Perry would have done well among Hispanics. Of the ones left in the race now, I’m thinking Newt would have the most success getting a nice share of the Hispanic vote. And, btw.........

.....Speaking of replacing FL with PA: There are three States of which whomever wins two (2) of those three (3) will win the White House; never fails. Those three States are: Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Ya gotta get two of those three to move into 1600 Pennslyvania Avenue. No one has been elected President, in modern history, without winning at least two of those three States. I still say we need Rubio on the Ticket.


31 posted on 03/10/2012 8:21:24 PM PST by no dems (No RINO-Rom, no Kook-Daddy and no "out of touch" Rev. Rick........Gingrich.... YES!!!)
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To: no dems

I don’t disagree with any of that. I think it’s foolish to have harsh rhetoric on illegal immigration. Newt is correct in having a more realistic plan that doesn’t risk breaking up families who’ve been here a long time. Remember when Ann Coulter bashed Newt for supposedly having harsh rhetoric that turns people off but then not following through and coming up with a soft policy? That’s not true for Newt but it is for Mitt on immigration. He’s speaking a hard-line immigration policy but he is not going to deliver on it. So he’s losing all the votes over something he’s not even going to be able or willing to do.

Note that Bush lost PA and won FL and OH in 2004. All I’m saying is with Rick on the ticket, we can maybe pick up PA and afford to lose FL. I am not comfortable with how much better Romney did in FL vs. OH. Seems to me the state is trending more liberal.


32 posted on 03/10/2012 8:26:03 PM PST by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: Mountain Mary

“Watching Huck on Faux. Had to turn it off cuz the shilling and inevitability for Mittens continues.”

Yes - it was so blatant, my jaw dropped in disbelief. Not because the Huckster supports him, but because he was so stupid to be that obvious about it. It started from the start and got progressively worse, with every edited clip and his “interviewing” each person in the group.


33 posted on 03/10/2012 11:13:31 PM PST by llandres (Forget the "New America" - restore the original one!!)
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To: no dems

I still say we need Rubio on the Ticket.
***********************
Just a question... Why should Rubio give up his Senate seat to become a VP, when he knows he isn’t eligible to move up to President because he isn’t a NBC?

Like Jindal, he was born in the US of parents having citizenship in foreign countries.

Just because McCain and Obama got away with running for Prez, and neither being a NBC (as you recall, McCain was born in Panama, not the Canal Zone) is no reason to continue to ignore the Constitution that requires an NBC.


34 posted on 03/11/2012 1:30:14 AM PST by octex
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To: octex

Well, if he knows that, they he probably will decline the VP offer when given; and it will be given.


35 posted on 03/11/2012 6:31:18 AM PDT by no dems (No RINO-Rom, no Kook-Daddy and no "out of touch" Rev. Rick........Gingrich.... YES!!!)
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To: jocon307

Martinez is good, but I don’t see the GOPE going for another first-term female governor.


36 posted on 03/11/2012 6:36:42 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: 9YearLurker

“I don’t see the GOPE going for another first-term female governor.”

Yes, I’ve thought of that too.

How about that guy who’s the, what? Governor is it, of Puerto Rico? He’s very right wing and very handsome. Are persons born in Peurto Ricans eligible to be President? And Guam and all those possessions?

I probably sound very ignorant, but I’ve never thought of this before.

Could we win NY with a bone fide Peurto Rican candidate on the ticket?

I gotta say in terms of winning the Hispanic vote you’d probably want someone of Mexican backround, not Cuban or Peurto Rican or etc.


37 posted on 03/11/2012 9:44:15 AM PDT by jocon307
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To: 9YearLurker

“I don’t see the GOPE going for another first-term female governor.”

Yes, I’ve thought of that too.

How about that guy who’s the, what? Governor is it, of Puerto Rico? He’s very right wing and very handsome. Are persons born in Peurto Ricans eligible to be President? And Guam and all those possessions?

I probably sound very ignorant, but I’ve never thought of this before.

Could we win NY with a bone fide Peurto Rican candidate on the ticket?

I gotta say in terms of winning the Hispanic vote you’d probably want someone of Mexican backround, not Cuban or Peurto Rican or etc.


38 posted on 03/11/2012 9:48:52 AM PDT by jocon307
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To: jocon307

So we’re all race panderers when it comes to trying to win elections?


39 posted on 03/11/2012 10:59:36 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: 9YearLurker

“So we’re all race panderers when it comes to trying to win elections?”

I’m looking at it more like country of origin pandering.

I don’t really have a problem with ethnic solidarity, provided it is a secondary or tertiary consideration.

I’ve often wondered if I were black if I would have voted for Obama. Assuming that my general views would be unchanged I conclude I would not have voted for him due to his abominable anti-life stances.

When I lived in NYC there were always so, so, so many people to vote for. Judges and council people and all kinds of things. I was young and I didn’t know what 1/2 the jobs were, much less any of the candidates below the top of the ticket. I also was not a straight party voter as I have become.

So, first I’d vote for the people I intended to vote for, and then maybe I’d have an opinion on some of the others, and when I ran out of good reasons to vote for (or against) folks I’d vote for those who had an Irish last name. Hey, who knows, they might not even have been really “Irish” at all.

So, I can’t castigate others for doing what I did.

Most people don’t pay a tenth of the amount of attention to politics that the folks here do. So to reach those people you need some simple marketing. It might be nice if they would all study the issues, and discuss, and argue, and ponder, like we do. But that’s not reality. They don’t have to do it, they don’t want to do it and they’re not going to do it.

But, we still need them to vote for us, and not the stinking dems, so we need to appeal to them, in all senses of that word.


40 posted on 03/11/2012 12:17:25 PM PDT by jocon307
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To: jocon307

I don’t know that I can really fault you for that—given that I was voting reliably Democrat when I was young.

But I’m curious: what was your thinking in going for the Irish name? Did you simply feel you were members of the same team somehow? Assume that they had some desirable traits or characteristics? Make any assumptions about how they would in turn vote or govern?


41 posted on 03/11/2012 12:51:47 PM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: 9YearLurker

“Did you simply feel you were members of the same team somehow?”

Yes, that’s pretty much it. Don’t forget, I’m old enough now and I was young enough then to “remember” that anti-Irish prejudice was not that long ago a real thing, so maybe there was a little concept of “affirmative action”.

I certainly didn’t think they’d be pro-life or anything like that, this was NYC after all!


42 posted on 03/11/2012 2:55:21 PM PDT by jocon307
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