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Mitt's delegate math begins to add up
Politico ^ | March 11, 2012 | Maggie Haberman

Posted on 03/11/2012 11:25:37 AM PDT by RitaOK

Now, Romney’s foes are eying a different goal — keeping the front-runner from amassing the 1,144 needed to clinch the nomination by the time the last votes are cast on June 26 in Utah, a winner-take-all state that is all-but-certain to be in Romney’s win column. It’s a play that would, they hope, set up a potential fight at the convention.


TOPICS: Editorial
KEYWORDS: count; delegate; gingrich; mitt
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1144 is the game. The "getting out" business advantages Romney. Get to convention, or it's Romney. Take our pick.
1 posted on 03/11/2012 11:25:44 AM PDT by RitaOK
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To: RitaOK

How come the URL doesn’t link up for me? Don’t ask me. I filled in the blank and this is what I get from Politico.com front page?


2 posted on 03/11/2012 11:31:27 AM PDT by RitaOK (LET 'ER RIP, NEWT. Newt knows where all the bodies are buried, because he buried them.)
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To: RitaOK
Newt should hang in there and make it very tough for Romney to win the necessary delegates.

In the end...shake up the gopE..rattle their cages and hold out for some "bartering" power at the convention. Starting to get a sinking feeling that Mitt will be the nominee but do want him to have to fight for every delegate.

Witnessing the end of American conservatism.

3 posted on 03/11/2012 11:34:52 AM PDT by katiedidit1 ("This is one race of people for whom psychoanalysis is of no use whatsoever." the Irish)
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To: RitaOK

Romney should drop out now.

He’s acting as a spoiler, he needs to get out.


4 posted on 03/11/2012 11:37:26 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network ("The door is open" PALIN 2012)
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To: RitaOK
GOP-E and Lame Media latest meme - don't fall for it. Romney out of money yet? He's been burning through the cash like Obama spends your future into debt.

Keep the pressure on Myth and he may have to campaign the old fashion way. Mittens will get chewed up on a level playing field.

5 posted on 03/11/2012 11:37:46 AM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Cringing Negativism Network
He’s acting as a spoiler, he needs to get out.

I think he's running out of cash.

6 posted on 03/11/2012 11:40:02 AM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Red Steel; Cringing Negativism Network

Absolutely.

This column exposes what we all know, that ALL three candidates must stay in as the ONLY hold against 1144, and stay all the way to convention.


7 posted on 03/11/2012 11:42:34 AM PDT by RitaOK (LET 'ER RIP, NEWT. Newt knows where all the bodies are buried, because he buried them.)
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To: Red Steel

Romney was at only $7million when Newt got the speculated ten million dollar injection. Romney raised only $10 million since and right as he is needing much more to destroy the opposition in the South.

None of that is able to happen for Romney and it is showing.

Read where the Establishment said they will stay in for Romney “a little while longer”.

The Establishment has to be uneasy!

Hold the Line!!


8 posted on 03/11/2012 11:46:40 AM PDT by RitaOK (LET 'ER RIP, NEWT. Newt knows where all the bodies are buried, because he buried them.)
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To: RitaOK

A clickable link...same article but different news organ. :-)

http://hamptonroads.com/2012/03/mitt-romneys-delegate-math-begins-add


9 posted on 03/11/2012 11:49:33 AM PDT by Red Steel
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To: katiedidit1

Forbes said if Romney fails, that there could be another candidate put forth (from the RINO Establishment) but that it is unlikely. They have to be going wobbly since we are not caving out here as they assumed we would.


10 posted on 03/11/2012 11:51:35 AM PDT by RitaOK (LET 'ER RIP, NEWT. Newt knows where all the bodies are buried, because he buried them.)
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To: Red Steel

Thank you, RS. I am relieved.


11 posted on 03/11/2012 11:52:39 AM PDT by RitaOK (LET 'ER RIP, NEWT. Newt knows where all the bodies are buried, because he buried them.)
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To: RitaOK

Prepare mind for cognitive dissonance.


12 posted on 03/11/2012 11:56:15 AM PDT by Anima Mundi
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To: RitaOK

Recall Romney in 2008 (honestly I supported him after Duncan Hunter left the race) was running strong.

The *moment* it became evident he was not going to win, he dropped out. Instantly.

Romney doesn’t want a costly, protracted struggle to the very end. He’ll lose in a brokered convention if he doesn’t win soon and outright.

The moment he concludes he’s not going to win, my prediction is it will be Mitt Romney, not one of the others, who drops out.

Hold the line guys.

Force the issue.

Mitt Romney needs to leave this race.


13 posted on 03/11/2012 12:05:04 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network ("The door is open" PALIN 2012)
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To: katiedidit1

You meanny... you take the “ooooh, yippie! Romney for President campaign” morale support of the corrupt GOP-E Rinos...

You are sooo bad, you are hurting another narcissistic cult.

(Sarc off)


14 posted on 03/11/2012 12:10:35 PM PDT by JudgemAll (Democrats Fed. job-security Whorocracy & hate:hypocrites must be gay like us or be tested/crucified)
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To: Red Steel; RitaOK
"Romney, many Republicans and even some of his own supporters acknowledge, may end June without hitting 1,144. Still, stopping him at the convention is a long shot."

Romney epitomizes the very type of rino the Tea Party has fought so hard to get rid of...I am ready for a 3rd party..the GOP no longer has my support

15 posted on 03/11/2012 12:12:47 PM PDT by katiedidit1 ("This is one race of people for whom psychoanalysis is of no use whatsoever." the Irish)
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To: JudgemAll

Fox News came up with some off the wall poll which stated the most intelligent and well educated voter’s support Mitt. BWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!


16 posted on 03/11/2012 12:17:26 PM PDT by katiedidit1 ("This is one race of people for whom psychoanalysis is of no use whatsoever." the Irish)
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To: RitaOK

Wonder if there’s a way we can prevent Virginia’s Romney delegates from showing up ~ maybe one of those Alternative Republican party plays like the Democrats did with Mississippi years back ~ do a credentials battle.


17 posted on 03/11/2012 12:23:09 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: katiedidit1
Well, not really. But then again we don't work for funny little foreign guys so we can believe what we want and say what we will.

The Fox crowd are a "captive nation".

18 posted on 03/11/2012 12:24:39 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: katiedidit1
Well, not really. But then again we don't work for funny little foreign guys so we can believe what we want and say what we will.

The Fox crowd are a "captive nation".

19 posted on 03/11/2012 12:24:51 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: katiedidit1

Oh, yes. This IS the last of the Republican Party. We are heading into grave danger, short of a miracle. (We do believe in miracles, however.)

Never again for the party, for me.

Third Party, or nothing at all.

I will resign myself entirely to the prayer closet and lift no finger to play “CO-DEPENDENT” games with the Republican Socialist Party. I know where we are headed and getting through it will have to be in prayer.


20 posted on 03/11/2012 12:25:30 PM PDT by RitaOK (LET 'ER RIP, NEWT. Newt knows where all the bodies are buried, because he buried them.)
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To: katiedidit1

HAHA... You and I know they are called smart or their voters smart when liberals are desperate and have decided to stop thinking and give all the keys to their messiah.

Bush II did the same thing when he gave the keys to Putin and Obama, calling one “making sense”, the other “we want you successful”, after making this job offer to MExicans because we are assumed to be like him, an AMerican we will not do it.


21 posted on 03/11/2012 12:30:13 PM PDT by JudgemAll (Democrats Fed. job-security Whorocracy & hate:hypocrites must be gay like us or be tested/crucified)
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To: katiedidit1

... {Bush II is} an AMerican who will not do it {”Mexican” job}


22 posted on 03/11/2012 12:32:16 PM PDT by JudgemAll (Democrats Fed. job-security Whorocracy & hate:hypocrites must be gay like us or be tested/crucified)
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To: RitaOK

My view is that should Romney come up a bit short on delegates when the convention rolls around I would not rule out the prospect of a Romney/Santorum ticket with Santorum bartering delegates for the VP slot.Although I support Santorum, I am a realist. Santorum is a ambitious politician first and a conservative second. Both Romney and Santorum would serve their personal interests in a marriage of convenience if Romney could not close the delegate gap elsewhere. IMHO.


23 posted on 03/11/2012 12:38:32 PM PDT by chuckee
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

He’s projected to have about 1,000 delegates by the convention. If that’s the case, it’s difficult to imagine that any back room deal would benefit somebody else but him. The unbound delegates will line up behind him. Unless either Newt or Rick withdraw, Mitt will win.


24 posted on 03/11/2012 2:40:25 PM PDT by paudio (no tagline for now...)
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To: paudio

When I try to estimate how many delegates Romney will get very roughly and amateurly based on past similar states to the upcoming ones, I get over 1100 but not up to 1144. Probably close enough for the party to find a way to push him over the top. A game-change has to happen where Romney stops doing as well in any specific type of state as he had before.

Having Rick or Newt drop out might do it, by causing the remaining guy to do better in winner-take-all states.

What people may not realize is that IL, PA and WV are “direct elections” of delegates, but that results in those functioning like winner-take-all states by county, like in SC. And that’s with NO required threshold like needing 50% of the vote to become WTA. So it is possible for Romney to have a blowout win like Gingrich did in SC if Rick and Newt split the vote in those IL, PA and WV counties, say, by 7-31-31-32 with Romney being the winner. If that was the vote in every county, Romney would get 100% of the delegates. Likewise, if Newt or Rick dropped out and the vote was 33-33-34 in all counties, the guy who got 34 would win all of the delegates.

In addition, WTA primaries include Puerto Rico, Wisconsin, Maryland, D.C., Delaware, California, New Jersey, Utah. Other states seem to have partial or conditional WTA like Texas, Indiana, Connecticut, New York and Alabama (but it’s too late to pull out for that one).

So overall that’s 15 out of 26 primaries after Tuesday where the conservative could possibly benefit heavily if one of them drops out. If I redo my math based on a 3-man race, I come up with closer to 1000 for Romney, so maybe losing 100-150 delegates. That still puts him close to the top, but maybe far down enough that the others might have a shot. I could be really wrong with my estimates but I think it’s very clear that either Newt or Rick pulling out would deny Romney a number of delegates based on the WTA rules.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

Funny how the article says ““Mitt Romney wins Saturday delegate count,” read a memo from his campaign on Saturday” and Drudge’s headline has been “MITT WINS THE DAY...”

More signs that Drudge is simply paraphrasing Romney press releases for his headlines.


25 posted on 03/11/2012 3:49:53 PM PDT by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: Red Steel; RitaOK
GOP-E and Lame Media latest meme - don't fall for it. Romney out of money yet? He's been burning through the cash like Obama spends your future into debt.

Last night I was listenting to Hugh Hewitt (big Romney backer) on late-night taped rerun, and he was talking to some silky-voiced RiNO dripping exclusivity and Connecticut connections telling us all that, well, you know, there's no path to the nomination any longer for anyone but Romney, so all the other candidates ought to drop out, embrace defeat, recognize reality and unite to work lustily for Mittens -- after all, Obama is the only "real" opponent, and all these objections to Mittens are just so much inconsequential particularism and strategic underbrush.

Get with the program. Be assimilated; resistance is futile.

I'll let you guess my reaction to that steaming load.

26 posted on 03/11/2012 4:14:42 PM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: JediJones

According to one article I’ve read, Newt has scheduled himself for two days of campaigning in Illinois right after Alabama and Mississippi.


27 posted on 03/11/2012 4:30:04 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Red Steel

Newt should get all over this Santorum the “economy is better” thing.


28 posted on 03/11/2012 4:34:07 PM PDT by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: lentulusgracchus

Santo echoing the GOP-E memo against Gingrich:

“Sunday, Mar. 11, 2012
Modified Sun, Mar 11, 2012 06:46 PM

Santorum says Gingrich should step aside”

http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/2012/03/11/2710859/santorum-says-gingrich-should.html

Gingrich is not about to go anywhere Ricky says.


29 posted on 03/11/2012 4:35:00 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: trappedincanuckistan
Newt should get all over this Santorum the “economy is better” thing.

They meet up here. A possible place to hammer Ricky with it.

"Newt participates in the Alabama Republican Presidential Forum
March 12, 2012 – 5:30pm – 7:30pm CT
Alabama Theater
1817 3rd Avenue North
Birmingham, AL, 35203 "

30 posted on 03/11/2012 4:37:52 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: chuckee
People would sit down with the Bain counselors as owners ~ and a year or so later they might still be managers but ownership had moved on.

I fail to see why Rick Santorum would sit down to make a deal with Romney.

Think about it ~ the issue is the future of America ~ not "I gotta be President.

Much more likely for Santorum and Gingrich to make a deal with Newt on first! If he does a good job Santorum would have a much better than equal chance to be the next one up.

31 posted on 03/11/2012 4:57:06 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: JediJones
The Virginia primary (Bwahahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) that featured Mitt Romney showed a dramatic fall off in the normally expected vote.

He got 10%.

Serious analysts know what that means ~ that the broad masses of the party rank and file DO NOT SUPPORT ROMNEY, DO NOT WANT TO SUPPORT ROMNEY, and WILL NOT SUPPORT ROMNEY.

He might as well drop out now.

32 posted on 03/11/2012 5:03:06 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Cringing Negativism Network
The Virginia primary (as I just said) proved that the depth of Romney's electoral support is remarkably thin.

It's not that people are upset by Romney, or that they don't like him ~ rather, he's simply not somebody we want to have preaching at us ~ kind of like the Hildabeast ~ she was TERRIBLE.

Romney needs to take a good hard look at the Virginia primary. He didn't campaign here. That's who showed up ~ NOBODY.

33 posted on 03/11/2012 5:07:38 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Red Steel

Interesting thing about the IL, PA and WV primaries, you can split your vote among delegates and your presidential pick. The pick is totally non-binding, just a straw poll. So I saw one sample ballot where you could vote for 3 delegates out of 12, with 3 delegates each marked as supporting one of the candidates. You could vote for 1 delegate for each candidate if you wanted. Or you could vote for Santorum as your presidential pick, but select 3 Newt delegates. So if theoretically everyone voted Santorum as their presidential pick, but everyone voted for the 3 Newt delegates, Santorum would be declared the winner of the “straw poll” if you will, but Newt would get all the delegates.

The issue remains though that in IL, PA and WV, Romney can win all the delegates just with a plurality of the vote for his delegates. So in theory with 4 candidates in the race, Romney’s delegates could get 26% of the vote and still win each county if the other guys get 25-25-24. So it’s essentially winner-take-all by county with no percentage threshold (the same thing FL was except that was statewide, not by county).


34 posted on 03/11/2012 5:32:23 PM PDT by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: muawiyah

Unfortunately, all this tells us is that Romney is a weak candidate, but not that he is going to lose the primary. For him to lose the nomination, two things have to happen...a major game-changing event or strategy in the primary AND some skillful maneuvering by the underdogs in a floor fight at the convention. No other path to defeat for Romney is plausible now.


35 posted on 03/11/2012 5:35:03 PM PDT by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: JediJones
You want me to give up don't you.

We're not giving up. If we wanted to run a damned Democrat for President we'd gotten the real thing to do the job ~ there are certainly enough of them that we could get someone.

So why would we want to run a Republican who pretends to be a Leftwingtard.

This guy hasn't been vetted and nobody likes him enough to show up to vote for him.

He's a loser!

36 posted on 03/11/2012 5:40:55 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: JediJones
It is also interesting that you say that as Ricky was today wishing Newt would leave the race for his benefit. Santo sees the hunt for delegates as a wide open race:

Santorum -

..."He took exception with the media reporting Romney as holding a wide lead in delegates won so far, saying "the news agency apportion delegates that have nothing to do with the reality of where the delegates are going to be."

... "These numbers are going to change dramatically and as you also know, a lot of these delegates are uncommitted,"

http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/11/politics/campaign-wrap/

37 posted on 03/11/2012 5:46:47 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: muawiyah

No, not at all. I just told you what needs to be done to win. Most likely either Newt or Rick needs to drop out to make it possible. The majority of delegates are within striking distance for Romney if the status quo remains as it is throughout the primary. This is based on knowing how he performs in New England, Mormon, and Southern states, etc., knowing Rick will do well in Pennsylvania, etc., and looking at which states are proportional and which are winner-take-all. If some big event shakes the primary up, he can possibly fall short by 100-200. Then it would require dealmaking at the convention that worked out against Romney, even while we know the party will be pulling every string it has to get Romney enough additional delegates to make a majority.


38 posted on 03/11/2012 5:49:32 PM PDT by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: Red Steel

Unfortunately, Newt and Rick talking about trying to get uncommitted delegates underlines a sense of desperation on their part. Romney has just as much ability to go after uncommitted delegates as they do. And Ron Paul seems to be the only one with an actual ground game aimed at getting his people to become delegates whether or not he wins the state or not. It’s a different ballgame at the convention when ALL delegates become unbound if the first vote fails to produce a majority. But they seem to be talking about convincing uncommitted delegates to move to them BEFORE the first vote. If you just look at the uncommitted delegates that come from the state parties, about 117 of them, the last article I saw said about 40 were pledged to Romney and less than 10 each to Newt or Rick, with the rest undecided. Romney has the advantage in getting these party hacks to switch to him and if there’s any insurgency or secret plot for delegates to switch their allegiance, Ron Paul is the only one who seems to have been laying the groundwork to set that up.


39 posted on 03/11/2012 5:59:39 PM PDT by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: JediJones
Our problem is that the fiscal conservatives won't vote for Santorum in a primary and the social conservatives won't vote for Gingrich in a primary either.

Together they keep ALL the conservative votes out of Romney's Mitts. If one drops out Romney will get the "revenge" conservative vote ~ and there's a real risk.

It's better for Romney to drop out now with a shot later on as Secretary of State or Secretary of Defense.

40 posted on 03/11/2012 5:59:50 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: JediJones
One more thing ~ we had something like 10 candidates sign up with the RNC as "the real thing" type candidates.

Only three of them had been Republicans all their lives. The others had some who'd been Democrat office holders, made major contributions to Democrats, or gone out and campaign for Democrats.

With 70% of our official gol-darn candidates actually FROM SOMEWHERE ELSE, that becomes a real problem.

You don't see former Republicans running as Democrats. That doesn't happen in their closed faction organization structure.

41 posted on 03/11/2012 6:04:27 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: muawiyah

You don’t understand the impact of the winner-take-all districts and states, which are becoming more numerous in the second half of the primary. Romney gains delegates when he comes in first even if the combined total of Newt and Rick is more than his total. And if we can get a single candidate to get over 50% of the vote, we can shut Romney out from getting any delegates in some cases. I don’t believe the divide between Newt and Rick voters is as great as you suggest. And if one or the other was announced as the other’s V.P., that would further unify them. Like I said, Romney comes out with 100-200 less delegates by my estimates in a 3-man race vs. the current 4-man race. That difference is vital to being able to beat him in a floor fight at the convention. Otherwise he’s on the path to being so close to 1,144 that we won’t be able to outmaneuver him at the convention.


42 posted on 03/11/2012 6:07:16 PM PDT by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: JediJones
As we get further into the primary season we end up with fewer and fewer open primaries and Mormon dominant primaries ~ yielding a smaller score (more like 20%) for Romney and a better score for each of the others.

The warp and woof is different as well as the weave.

43 posted on 03/11/2012 6:12:51 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: JediJones
It was pretty obvious in Virginia that if there's no Conservative of the appropriate brand the Conservatives don't show up for the election.

In fact, a lot of the Mittbots don't either ~ he's simply not an attractive candidate.

44 posted on 03/11/2012 6:14:44 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: RitaOK

Where is the link to the rest of the Article. I’d like to read it.


45 posted on 03/11/2012 6:25:00 PM PDT by no dems (No RINO-Rom, no Kook-Daddy and no "out of touch" Rev. Rick........Gingrich.... YES!!!)
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To: muawiyah

Not entirely true. Many of the upcoming primaries are open, looks like even more in the second half of primary season than in the first half. You’re not telling me what I don’t know, and the fact remains that as I calculate it, if Newt or Rick drops out, they can swipe maybe 200 delegates from Romney that he would otherwise get by outperforming him in winner-take-all contests. That could be the difference to them being able to win in a convention floor fight. It is foolish to not think that our chances in winner-take-all states would be improved by removing the possibility that we would split the vote between Newt and Rick vs. combining it behind one candidate.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html


46 posted on 03/11/2012 6:26:56 PM PDT by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: muawiyah
It was pretty obvious in Virginia that if there's no Conservative of the appropriate brand the Conservatives don't show up for the election.

Which is why he will probably lose to Obama in November if he's the nominee. Case in point, if either Newt or Rick was on the VA ballot, they would have defeated Romney decisively, perhaps with over 50% of the vote. But when they both go on the ballot, they split the vote and that ends up sending a bunch of delegates Romney's way that he wouldn't get if we had one conservative defeating him decisively and sometimes with over 50% of the vote.

47 posted on 03/11/2012 6:29:23 PM PDT by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: no dems

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0312/73844.html


48 posted on 03/11/2012 6:30:25 PM PDT by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: RitaOK
This column exposes what we all know, that ALL three candidates must stay in as the ONLY hold against 1144, and stay all the way to convention.

You know, I didn't read the entire article, but, up until today, I thought that Newt and Rick were splitting the Conservative vote and giving victories to Romney. Well, they are splitting the Conservative vote. But, I've realized that if one of them dropped out, the other would NOT get all the votes but would split them with Romney and he'd win by larger margin. So, I agree that all three of them need to stay in the race all the way to Tampa and maybe have a Brokered Convention.
49 posted on 03/11/2012 6:40:09 PM PDT by no dems (No RINO-Rom, no Kook-Daddy and no "out of touch" Rev. Rick........Gingrich.... YES!!!)
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To: JediJones

Half are open.


50 posted on 03/11/2012 6:43:49 PM PDT by muawiyah
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