Skip to comments.HUSSMAN: These 5 Conditions Mean The Market Is Going To Plunge ("Within Days")
Posted on 03/11/2012 1:32:04 PM PDT by blam
HUSSMAN: These 5 Conditions Mean The Market Is Going To Plunge
March 11, 2013
There's a big story in Barron's this weekend titled The Worst of Times to Buy Stocks?, which highlights the gloomy warnings of well-known investor John Hussman and technical guy Walter J. Zimmermann Jr.
Hussman's bearishness is well known, but the article by Randall W. Forsyth boils down Hussman's bearishness to four criteria:
the Standard & Poor's 500 trading at more than 8% above its 52-week exponential moving average
the S&P 500 up more than 50% from its four-year low
the "Shiller P/E," based on the cyclically adjusted trailing 10-year earnings, developed by Yale economist Robert Shiller, greater than 18; it's currently 22
the 10-year Treasury yield higher than six months earlier
the Investors Intelligence's bullish advisory sentiment over 47%, and bearishness under 25%; in the latest data, the numbers were 47.9% bulls and 26.6% bears
Apparently all those conditions are nearly in place now, as they were in 1987, 2000, and 2007.
Meanwhile, Zimmerman agrees with all that, plus he cites the inevitability of a market decline owing to rising taxes, austerity, too much bullishness, and gas prices. He sees a "perfect storm" manifesting itself within days.
Read the full story here >
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
The 4 criteria are apparently 5. If the auther could count, maybe I’d pay attention.
I read Hussman's weekly commentary. He doesn't say that it is going to happen, but conditions are such that his alarm bells are going off. I wouldn't exactly call him a perma-bear. At current stock market levels, he thinks the stock market will return somewhere around 4.5% per year over the next 10 years in a non linear fashion..
“As Tonto used to say to the Lone Ranger, Quien sabe?”
Only when south of the border there, hombre!
We can always go out and buy an anuity that promises to pay 22% the first year or 8% forever.../s
We could be in trouble now but won't know it until late 2012 or early 2013. All this continued CB pumping and changing the rules of the game makes me terribly uneasy.
Looks like the old Corrigan movie ranch in Simi Valley. I used to crawl around in those rocks as a kid.
“All this continued CB pumping and changing the rules ....
Extortion by Forced Labor 2014, age 26.
Arbeitsziehungslager: Forced Labor Camp, U.S. Territory.
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