Skip to comments.HUSSMAN: These 5 Conditions Mean The Market Is Going To Plunge ("Within Days")
Posted on 03/11/2012 1:32:04 PM PDT by blam
HUSSMAN: These 5 Conditions Mean The Market Is Going To Plunge
March 11, 2013
There's a big story in Barron's this weekend titled The Worst of Times to Buy Stocks?, which highlights the gloomy warnings of well-known investor John Hussman and technical guy Walter J. Zimmermann Jr.
Hussman's bearishness is well known, but the article by Randall W. Forsyth boils down Hussman's bearishness to four criteria:
the Standard & Poor's 500 trading at more than 8% above its 52-week exponential moving average
the S&P 500 up more than 50% from its four-year low
the "Shiller P/E," based on the cyclically adjusted trailing 10-year earnings, developed by Yale economist Robert Shiller, greater than 18; it's currently 22
the 10-year Treasury yield higher than six months earlier
the Investors Intelligence's bullish advisory sentiment over 47%, and bearishness under 25%; in the latest data, the numbers were 47.9% bulls and 26.6% bears
Apparently all those conditions are nearly in place now, as they were in 1987, 2000, and 2007.
Meanwhile, Zimmerman agrees with all that, plus he cites the inevitability of a market decline owing to rising taxes, austerity, too much bullishness, and gas prices. He sees a "perfect storm" manifesting itself within days.
Read the full story here >
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Blam, could you hold off the plunge till Tuesday. I have some stocks I need to sell.
Not sure I buy that. 1987, 2000 and 2007 came after prolonged market boom. He's arguing that rapid rise in the market is itself an indicator of an impending crash -- that's only the case if the economy doesn't recover as the market is anticipating.
Should this be considered more credible than the “Hindenburg Omen” from a year or so ago?
In the words of every stock market analyst I’ve ever heard: this could happen, then again, it might not.
One of my favorite characters in the movie “Airplane”.
"Stock Market to Plunge"....."Millions To Lose Their Jobs......"There's a Sale at Penny's"
What-ever happened with that?
Since I had that little 'flash' incident, they don't let me behind the curtain anymore.
Up in flames?
The present spending continues! And I dont see how we can avoid a collapse like that of Argentina ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yerKMQc7-w&feature=grec_index )but on a global scale.
But the market is up you say, yeah its up using billions in printed money in the hands of corrupted bankers, investors and their cronies. The world is now flooded with fake and faux money. The game is so rigged and now even the house is starting to lose. Hell half the states are in worst financial condition than Greece.
When the whole thing tanks as it will what do you think the entiled class will do when they cant get their cell phones, their food stamps and EBT cards, rent vouchers and so forth.
What we will see is a much more violent version of Argentina, (checkout what is going on in Greece).
American has an even a larger entitlement minded population and much more violent and armed onen than Argentina or Greece.
I see many many small business wiped out by flash mob looting, and see rape, robbery and murder for murder sake. Many of these yutes will think no more about killing you than most people think about stepping on a roach. That will be the test of many. Most preppers I know are Christian people and they will hesitate to do what they might have to do to stop the yutes. On the other hand the yutes wont think twice nor lose a minute of sleep, in fact they will smile and laugh about it.
Think of this quote which is one of my favorites:
Star Trek: Deep Space Nine: The Siege of AR-558 (#7.8) (1998)
Quark: Let me tell you something about Hew-mons, Nephew. Theyre a wonderful, friendly people, as long as their bellies are full and their holosuites are working. But take away their creature comforts, deprive them of food, sleep, sonic showers, put their lives in jeopardy over an extended period of time and those same friendly, intelligent, wonderful people... will become as nasty and as violent as the most bloodthirsty Klingon. You dont believe me? Look at those faces. Look in their eyes.
On top of all who knows how many saboteurs (Islamic, Chinese etc) and sleepers have crossed our borders and are now just waiting to cause havoc.
For those who are just starting or are old hands at prepping you may find my Preparedness Manual helpfull. You can download it at:
NOTE! THIS IS A FREE DOWNLOAD. I DO NOT MAKE ONE CENT OFF MY PREPAREDNESS MANUAL!
For those of you who havent started already its time to prepare almost past time maybe. You needed to be stocking up on food guns, ammo, basic household supplies like soap, papergoods, cleaning supplies, good sturdy clothes including extra socks, underwear and extra shoes and boots, a extra couple changes of oil and filters for your car, tools, things you buy everyday start buying two and put one up.
As the LDS say When the emergency is upon us the time for preparedness has past.
Or as the bible says: A prudent man sees danger and takes refuge, but the simple keep going and suffer for it.
NIV Proverbs 22:3
Lastly this for the doubters and the scoffers.
There is no greater disaster than to underestimate danger.
Underestimation can be fatal.
Well, we won't have to worry for another year then...
No one this side of God knows whether the stock market is going up or down. Some of the reasons posted for a crash appear to be pure BS. One example is the 10 year bond being at a higher interest rate than it was 6 months ago. That bond has been fluctuating slightly below and above a 2% yield for many months now, and that rate is absurdly low and will remain so as long as the Fed wants to have easy money.
As for comparing the current market to 4 years ago, we were heading full force into a major recession and hitting bottom. As for the S&P, the Price Earnings ratio is still a good bit below the historical average.
So, I do not buy into this nonsense. Now, if Israel attacks Iran, or if Obama sends US troops into Syria, then the market will drop big time. This market is more subject to the influence of extraneous forces. All that being said, the market could go up or it could go down a little or a lot, or it could go sideways. As Tonto used to say to the Lone Ranger, “Quien sabe?”
But - yes- the ride will come to an end when Thelma and Louise (Ben and Timmy) hit the gas one last time, and join hands over the cliff. When? I don't know. Late summer, perhaps. In any event, the "market" is no longer a market - it's a casino, and a bankrupt casino at that.
You can learn all you need to know about where the stock market is eventually headed, long term, by watching the largest asset class the world: US Residential Real Estate.
The 4 criteria are apparently 5. If the auther could count, maybe I’d pay attention.
I read Hussman's weekly commentary. He doesn't say that it is going to happen, but conditions are such that his alarm bells are going off. I wouldn't exactly call him a perma-bear. At current stock market levels, he thinks the stock market will return somewhere around 4.5% per year over the next 10 years in a non linear fashion..
“As Tonto used to say to the Lone Ranger, Quien sabe?”
Only when south of the border there, hombre!
We can always go out and buy an anuity that promises to pay 22% the first year or 8% forever.../s
We could be in trouble now but won't know it until late 2012 or early 2013. All this continued CB pumping and changing the rules of the game makes me terribly uneasy.
Looks like the old Corrigan movie ranch in Simi Valley. I used to crawl around in those rocks as a kid.
“All this continued CB pumping and changing the rules ....
Extortion by Forced Labor 2014, age 26.
Arbeitsziehungslager: Forced Labor Camp, U.S. Territory.