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Sen. Graham: GOP Race is "Mathematically" Over
Big Government ^ | March 12, 2012 | Wynton Hall

Posted on 03/12/2012 6:27:25 AM PDT by redstateone

On Sunday, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said that the Republican presidential race is "mathematically" over and that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is all but assured to be the GOP's nominee.

"Mathematically, Rick would have to win 75 percent of what remains," Graham, a senior Republican who serves on various Senate committees, told ABC's "This Week" program...

(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: getoutnewt; gopprimary; graham4romney; grahamnesty; kenyanbornmuzzie; lindseygrahamnesty; mittromney; newt4romney; newtgetout; newtgingrich; newtsplittingthevote; republican; ricksantorum; senlindseygraham

1 posted on 03/12/2012 6:27:28 AM PDT by redstateone
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To: redstateone

Maybe, but our math isn’t too good, and we need the practice anyway, so let’s just run through the whole exercise anyway.


2 posted on 03/12/2012 6:32:22 AM PDT by throwback ( The object of opening the mind, as of opening the mouth, is to shut it again on something solid.)
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To: redstateone

I agree with him.

Each following line will list the state name by its first 3-4 letters, the model I use to estimate the delegate breakdown( lib for liberal), total delegates allocated, and delegate shares designated with R for Romney, S for Santorum, and N for Newt.

(Based on delegate counts from Real Clear Politics – which calculated Romney has 455, Santorum 199, and Newt 117 at the time I did this analysis.)

Ala.........Okla..............50..................16R................17S..................17N

Alabama is truly southern state, therefore, will vote like Oklahoma.

Cali........Wash..............172..............129R...............20S.................23N

California is liberal state with CD winner take all.

Conn........lib.................28.................28R

Connecticut is libral state with winner-take-all, WTA

Del...........lib.................17..................17R

Delaware is the same as Conn.

DC...........lib...................19...............19R

DC is the same as Delaware.

Haw.........lib...................20..................20R

Hawaii is the same as DC.

Ill............lib....................69..................69R

Illinois is the most corrupted.

Ind..........Ohio...............46..................27R.............19S

Indiana is similar but slightly more conservative than Ohio.

Ken........Kan.................45..................8R................37S

Kentucky is like Kansas.

Loui.........Okla..............46..................15R..............15S..............16N

Louisiana is southern state, like Oklahoma.

Mary.........lib.................37..................37R

Maryland is liberal, WTA.

Miss.........Okla...............40.................13R................14S............13N

Mississippi is southern state, like Oklahoma.

Missou.....Tenn............. 52................15R.................27S.............10N

Missouri has more self-righteous Christians, like Tenn.

Mont.........Wyo.............26.................26R

Montana is far west state, like Wyoming, maybe some for Santorum due to more conservatism, but not much.

Neb...........Minn.............35................17R.................18S

Nebraska is more conservative of the far west, so I used Minnesota model.

NJ............lib..................50.................50R

NJ is liberal. WTA

NY..........lib..................95..................95R

NY is liberal, WTA at districts, so Newt can steal some here.

NC..........Okl............ .55..................25R................15S.............15N

NC is southern but more transient, therefore, more liberal, hybrid between Okla/Ohio.

Ore..........lib..................28..................28R

Oregon is liberal, like Washington.

Penn.......Mich..............72...................30R..............35S..............7N

Penn is like Ohio, but Santorum’s home state, more sophisticated than Ohio so Newt gets some.

RI...........lib..................19....................19R

RI is liberal.

S.Dako...Wyo...............28...................18R...............10S

South Dakota is far west state but conservative, I used Ohio model.

TX ........Tenn/GA........155.................44R..............27S.............84N

I use hybrid model between Tenn and GA due to the natures of soutern state and Perry’s endorsement for Newt.

Uta........Wyo.................40..................40R

Utah is Mormon state.

WV........Okla................31..................15R...............7S..............8N

West Virginia is like Virginia, goes with establishment, not sophisticated, Oklahoma-light model here with Romney is favored.

Wis........NDak..............42..................14R..............22S.............6N

Wisconsin is intellectual, rural, ND or Tenn model here.

Puerto.....lib...................23..................23R

Puerto is liberal.

Total...................................................857R

Romney now has 455, needs to have 1,144 for nomination. With projected 857 delegates, he will have 455 + 857 = 1312 delegates.

I took into account state-wise and district winner-take-all options from most states. Of course I will miss some technicalities here and there but the whole picture does look gloomy.


3 posted on 03/12/2012 6:36:54 AM PDT by God-fear-republican
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To: redstateone

Lindsey Graham is a tool!


4 posted on 03/12/2012 6:37:39 AM PDT by chris haney (Apache)
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To: redstateone

Lindsey Graham is a tool!


5 posted on 03/12/2012 6:37:39 AM PDT by chris haney (Apache)
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To: chris haney

You can say that again.


6 posted on 03/12/2012 6:38:50 AM PDT by A Strict Constructionist (We're an Oligrachy...Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God. Thomas Jefferson)
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To: redstateone

So obammalite will run against obamma himself. Great choice! NOT! Why vote this year? Pathetic!


7 posted on 03/12/2012 6:39:50 AM PDT by rawhide
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To: God-fear-republican

“The Pure” can stay home on Election Day: after all, we’d suffer more under President Giuliani than President Obama. /s


8 posted on 03/12/2012 6:40:03 AM PDT by Does so ("What elephant?")
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To: redstateone
Sen. Graham: GOP Race is "Mathematically" Over

Romney has 1145 delegates?

9 posted on 03/12/2012 6:40:16 AM PDT by Jim Noble ("The Germans: At your feet, or at your throat" - Winston Churchill)
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To: redstateone

I could really care less about what Goober Graham thinks or says.


10 posted on 03/12/2012 6:41:31 AM PDT by Timber Rattler (Just say NO! to RINOS and the GOP-E)
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To: chris haney
Thought you wrote 'Lindsey Graham is a fool!'
11 posted on 03/12/2012 6:44:35 AM PDT by rawhide
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To: redstateone

He is just a fagot that wants his gay marriage buddy mitt elected.

LLS


12 posted on 03/12/2012 6:51:17 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (WOLVERINES!)
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To: chris haney

“Lindsey Graham is a tool!”

And Barney Frank’s not telling...


13 posted on 03/12/2012 6:54:29 AM PDT by PetroniusMaximus
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To: redstateone

I’m mathmatically frustrated with liberal Republicans.


14 posted on 03/12/2012 7:01:44 AM PDT by Crucial
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To: redstateone

Juist think of the money we could save on these tiresome elections if we just asked Miss Lindsey to identify the real winner right at the start.


15 posted on 03/12/2012 7:04:13 AM PDT by Iron Munro ("Don't pick a fight with an old man. If he is too old to fight he'll just kill you." John Steinbeck)
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To: redstateone

In realville, it is over, especially if both Newt and Sanotrum stay in the race and split the conservative vote.

Even then, Romney has so many liberal states coming up (NY, NJ, MD, CA, IL, etc). Plus they are proportional, so he’ll get his 25-30% lockstep RINO vote (even in red states) and rack up even more delegates.


16 posted on 03/12/2012 7:15:01 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else (Maybe Tim Thomas))
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To: redstateone
go back to Pres__ent Obama's bath house Linda G... :-\

17 posted on 03/12/2012 7:53:52 AM PDT by skinkinthegrass (Simple: Kill the terrorists, Protect (all) the borders, ridicule all the (surviving) Liberals :^)
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To: God-fear-republican

Interesting. It does look gloomy from those numbers. Thanks for your analysis.


18 posted on 03/12/2012 7:54:10 AM PDT by Girlene
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To: redstateone
who serves on various Senate committees

Weird...why is that detail added? That's true of every member of Congress.

19 posted on 03/12/2012 7:59:54 AM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: redstateone

If what he means is that Romney has to win 25 percent of the remaining delegates, he ought to comprehend that it is anything but a done deal.


20 posted on 03/12/2012 8:11:08 AM PDT by Tribune7 (GAS WAS $1.85 per gallon on the day Obama was Inaugurated! - - freeper Gaffer)
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To: redstateone

Lindsey, too busy cover his whatever that is not even an a$$ anymore, from saving it to at least somewhat of an a$$, as all the GOP-E homosexual band is all about.

Lindsey, YOU, sir, are mathematically OVER.


21 posted on 03/12/2012 8:11:13 AM PDT by JudgemAll (Democrats Fed. job-security Whorocracy & hate:hypocrites must be gay like us or be tested/crucified)
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To: God-fear-republican

THe GOP-E to liberals is like Red China to the Soviet Union. THey do not own the game of the liberals and hence the moderates will never make it, they will be the useful idiots following the wrong crowd.


22 posted on 03/12/2012 8:13:26 AM PDT by JudgemAll (Democrats Fed. job-security Whorocracy & hate:hypocrites must be gay like us or be tested/crucified)
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To: chris haney
“Lindsey Graham is a tool!”

Yes, and it is funny when someone throws in the graphic of “Grahamski” wearing your Nana's clothes - complete with a granny hat & purse!

But does the math equation work? Has it worked like this before?

Do tea leaves work better? How about intestine readings.

23 posted on 03/12/2012 8:15:15 AM PDT by hummingbird (SPARTACUS --->BREITBART --->FREEPERS - ONWARD AND UPWARD!)
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To: Does so

That’s right, blame social conservatives for refusing to support social liberals.


24 posted on 03/12/2012 8:18:15 AM PDT by DNA.2012
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To: throwback

Bull crap!


25 posted on 03/12/2012 8:23:49 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: throwback
Correct. Actually going through the exercise has the habit of legitimizing or delegitimizing a particular candidate. Romney still has to win 47.3% of all remaining delegates to lock up a majority before the convention.

While this is a little bit less daunting than Santorum's task of winning 63.5% or Gingrich's task of winning 71.1% of remaining delegates, it is by no means a done deal.

The key numbers are:

Delegates won (Dw):
Romney = 454
Santorum = 217
Gingrich = 107

Delegates needed to win (Dn) = 1144
Delegates not yet allocated (Dr) = 1459

(Dn-Dw)/Dr = % of remaining delegates required to win.

If you want to take the view that Santorum and Gingrich are on the same team, you can add up their totals and still come up their need to win 56.2% of all remaining delegates to lock up the nomination.

26 posted on 03/12/2012 8:37:11 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: throwback
Maybe, but our math isn’t too good, and we need the practice anyway, so let’s just run through the whole exercise anyway.

That's right! I went to a public school system.

27 posted on 03/12/2012 8:50:59 AM PDT by do the dhue (WARNING: this site is not liable for the things I say)
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To: throwback
Maybe, but our math isn’t too good, and we need the practice anyway, so let’s just run through the whole exercise anyway.

That's right! I went to a public school system.

28 posted on 03/12/2012 8:51:13 AM PDT by do the dhue (WARNING: this site is not liable for the things I say)
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To: God-fear-republican

Not if enough rules challenges can be made. I suspect that Virgina and Florida’s delegations can be challenged.


29 posted on 03/12/2012 8:54:29 AM PDT by Thunder90 (Romney barely won in OH with a 12-1 money advantage, he can't beat Obama that way.)
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To: DNA.2012

The pure? Please, we have supported your watered down lackeys for 30 yrs. and what has it got us? Literally Clarence Thomas, Alito and Roberts and that is about it.

I am by no means a purist buy my God how can you say with a straight face that Romney is conservative on anything.

If he were 50% conservative I would be a team player but he can’t even get close to that and I am supposed to be all rah-rah for this clod and the GOP team that couldn’t find a set of balls between the whole lot in McDonalds play area ball pit.

2010 showed this team player and coming together BS is one-sided as with all liberals. We conservatives are expected to give and give and give but damned if a liberal democrat or republican is going to give and inch. Ask Christine O’donnell, Sharon Angle and Joe Miller how much the purist on the liberal side of the party were team players in 2010. Now you get a dose of what you have been shoveling for 30 yrs and we are the problem? Screw that!

You want Romney you got him, don’t expect help from me in any form. You might-—might get my vote and that would be it.


30 posted on 03/12/2012 8:59:29 AM PDT by sarge83
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To: chris haney

“Lindsey Graham is a tool!”
*****************************************
Actually, sweet Lindsey IS a tool. And, come the 2014 election he will be history if we play our cards right. There are now some popular AND TRUE conservatives (e.g., Tim Scott) in South Carolina that would seriously kick little Lindsey’s ass in the Republican primary.


31 posted on 03/12/2012 9:01:43 AM PDT by House Atreides
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To: sarge83

Have you clicked on my screen name?


32 posted on 03/12/2012 9:03:33 AM PDT by DNA.2012
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To: Thunder90

MY ANALYSIS WITH NEWT DROPPING OUT OF THE RACE:
Each following line will list the state name by its first 3-4 letters, the model I use to estimate the delegate breakdown( lib for liberal), total delegates allocated, and delegate shares designated with R for Romney, S for Santorum.
(Based on delegate counts from Real Clear Politics – which calculated Romney has 455, Santorum 199, and Newt 117 at the time I did this analysis.)
Ala.........Okla..............50.................. 0R.........50S
Alabama is truly southern state, therefore, will vote like Oklahoma.
Cali........Wash..............172..............129R........43S
California is liberal state with CD winner take all.
Conn........lib.................28.................28R
Connecticut is libral state with winner-take-all, WTA
Del...........lib.................17..................17R
Delaware is the same as Conn.
DC...........lib...................19...............19R
DC is the same as Delaware.
Haw.........lib...................20..................20R
Hawaii is the same as DC.
Ill............lib....................69..................69R
Illinois is the most corrupted.
Ind..........Ohio...............46..................27R.......19S
Indiana is similar but slightly more conservative than Ohio.
Ken........Kan.................45..................0R................45S
Kentucky is like Kansas.
Loui.........Okla..............46..................0R..............46S
Louisiana is southern state, like Oklahoma.
Mary.........lib.................37..................37R
Maryland is liberal, WTA.
Miss.........Okla...............40.................0R................40
Mississippi is southern state, like Oklahoma.
Missou.....Tenn............. 52................0R.................52S
Missouri has more self-righteous Christians, like Tenn.
Mont.........Wyo.............26.................26R
Montana is far west state, like Wyoming, maybe some for Santorum due to more conservatism, but not much.
Neb...........Minn.............35................17R.................18S
Nebraska is more conservative of the far west, so I used Minnesota model.
NJ............lib..................50.................50R
NJ is liberal. WTA
NY..........lib..................95..................95R
NY is liberal, WTA at districts.Santorum might get some districts here.
NC..........Okl............ .55..................25R................30S
NC is southern but more transient, therefore, more liberal, hybrid between Okla/Ohio.
Ore..........lib..................28..................28R
Oregon is liberal, like Washington.
Penn.......Mich..............72...................20R..............52S
Penn is like Ohio, but Santorum’s home state.
RI...........lib..................19....................19R
RI is liberal.
S.Dako...Wyo...............28...................18R...............10S
South Dakota is far west state but conservative, I used Ohio model.
TX ........Tenn/GA........155.................0R..............155S
I use hybrid model between Tenn and GA due to the natures of southern state.Ron Paul might deny Santorum 50% majority here.
Uta........Wyo.................40..................40R
Utah is Mormon state.
WV........Okla................31..................16R...............15S
West Virginia is like Virginia, goes with establishment, not sophisticated, Oklahoma-light model here with Romney is favored.
Wis........NDak..............42..................20R..............22S
Wisconsin is intellectual, rural, ND or Tenn model here.
Puerto.....lib...................23..................23R
Puerto is liberal.
Total...................................................801R
Romney now has 455, needs to have 1,144 for nomination. With projected 801 delegates, he will have 455 + 801 = 1198 delegates. Romney has 1198 -1144 = 54 delegates to spare if you want to argue with some plus or minus of my numbers. And I am very generous with Santorum.
I took into account state-wise and district winner-take-all options from most states. Of course I will miss some technicalities here and there but the whole picture does look gloomy.
People can be optimistic in saying as long as it is not Obama, they don’t care who wins. Really? Can we tolerate the loss of religious freedom and general liberty, more debt, national bankruptcy due to healthcare, federal hate crimes against our religious leaders and churches for not “marrying” homosexual couples in churches or for not providing them entertaining services or allowing them to perform lewd acts in public! Lord, have mercy!


33 posted on 03/12/2012 9:06:32 AM PDT by God-fear-republican
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To: God-fear-republican

“Lord, have mercy!”

May He have mercy on the plain folk. May He reward the powers and principalities with what they have earned, and may that reward be swift, final and clearly from His hand.


34 posted on 03/12/2012 9:11:39 AM PDT by Psalm 144 ("I think we ought to listen to Alinsky." - Governor G. Romney, father of Bishop Willard M. Romney.)
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To: redstateone

Twice a day Lindsey Graham’s broken watch is right, but he has it correct on this Mittens stuff. People want Mittens and are afraid of alternatives. Barbara Bush even practically endorsed him this weekend.


35 posted on 03/12/2012 9:14:18 AM PDT by Theodore R. (Mathematically, it's all over, says Mittens. I'm afraid the people will again let us down.)
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To: Psalm 144

Sadly the plain folk are too uninformed to protect themselves.


36 posted on 03/12/2012 9:15:19 AM PDT by Theodore R. (Mathematically, it's all over, says Mittens. I'm afraid the people will again let us down.)
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To: God-fear-republican

Sadly, the Lord doesn’t seem to help those so uninformed to help themselves. A miracle is needed.


37 posted on 03/12/2012 9:17:01 AM PDT by Theodore R. (Mathematically, it's all over, says Mittens. I'm afraid the people will again let us down.)
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To: redstateone

please, please someone please post the pictures.


38 posted on 03/12/2012 9:26:28 AM PDT by Raycpa
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To: redstateone
= "to those of you who have yet to vote in MANY states, your vote means nothing and is regarded as nothing. You have no essential say in who the nomine off this Party will be, love it or lump it." (THERE, FIXED IT.)

I swear, lots of turncoats and seditious types out there, even in the GOP.

39 posted on 03/12/2012 9:26:45 AM PDT by AmericanInTokyo (If you are a Newt or Romney supporter, don't waste your time on posting to me. Save it. Zip it.)
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To: God-fear-republican

Romney’s record on gun control: http://www.nationalgunrights.org/pres_files/Romneyflier.pdf

Supports AGW, individual mandates and who knows what else.

Gee. Who said he is 0bama lite? There’s lite and there’s 90 calorie stuff. This guy ain’t either.

But he wears nice suits and buys a lot of votes.


40 posted on 03/12/2012 9:32:08 AM PDT by combat_boots (The Lion of Judah cometh. Hallelujah. Gloria Patri, Filio et Spiritui Sancto.)
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To: redstateone
Gingrich Senior Advisor Randy Evans Explains Delegate Math
41 posted on 03/12/2012 9:49:18 AM PDT by Brown Deer (Pray for 0bama. Psalm 109:8)
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To: God-fear-republican

Your work is commendable and gives Santorum the benefit of all doubt. It’s just too bad our little Republican primary voters don’t see things as we do. They just want “a winner,” much as they do with their favorite sports teams.


42 posted on 03/12/2012 10:02:09 AM PDT by Theodore R. (Mathematically, it's all over, says Mittens. I'm afraid the people will again let us down.)
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More from the (recent) FRchives:
43 posted on 03/12/2012 10:03:06 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (I come to bury Caesar, not to praise him)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks redstateone.
44 posted on 03/12/2012 10:03:44 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (I come to bury Caesar, not to praise him)
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To: chris haney

But he’s SC’s tool, and they admire him for some reason.


45 posted on 03/12/2012 10:06:31 AM PDT by Theodore R. (Mathematically, it's all over, says Mittens. I'm afraid the people will again let us down.)
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To: DNA.2012

Sorry DNA, my fault, my response was directed at Does so. My apologies.


46 posted on 03/12/2012 11:02:54 AM PDT by sarge83
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To: Theodore R.

Didn’t you see the pix with Romney in the Sr.Bush’s house getting their endorsement? That was months ago though. B Bush is a GOP E.


47 posted on 03/12/2012 11:59:13 AM PDT by presently no screen name
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To: redstateone
What matters is making Romney battle for every single delegate and for the true conservatives to send a loud and resounding message to the GOP-E.

How many times do we have to endure the weakest conservative..make that rino to be our nominee? Romney is the epitome of the type of congressman, senator, president the Tea Party folks fought long and hard to get rid of btw..so is Graham.

48 posted on 03/12/2012 12:05:12 PM PDT by katiedidit1 ("This is one race of people for whom psychoanalysis is of no use whatsoever." the Irish)
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