Posted on 03/12/2012 6:27:25 AM PDT by redstateone
On Sunday, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said that the Republican presidential race is "mathematically" over and that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is all but assured to be the GOP's nominee.
"Mathematically, Rick would have to win 75 percent of what remains," Graham, a senior Republican who serves on various Senate committees, told ABC's "This Week" program...
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Maybe, but our math isn’t too good, and we need the practice anyway, so let’s just run through the whole exercise anyway.
I agree with him.
Each following line will list the state name by its first 3-4 letters, the model I use to estimate the delegate breakdown( lib for liberal), total delegates allocated, and delegate shares designated with R for Romney, S for Santorum, and N for Newt.
(Based on delegate counts from Real Clear Politics – which calculated Romney has 455, Santorum 199, and Newt 117 at the time I did this analysis.)
Ala.........Okla..............50..................16R................17S..................17N
Alabama is truly southern state, therefore, will vote like Oklahoma.
Cali........Wash..............172..............129R...............20S.................23N
California is liberal state with CD winner take all.
Conn........lib.................28.................28R
Connecticut is libral state with winner-take-all, WTA
Del...........lib.................17..................17R
Delaware is the same as Conn.
DC...........lib...................19...............19R
DC is the same as Delaware.
Haw.........lib...................20..................20R
Hawaii is the same as DC.
Ill............lib....................69..................69R
Illinois is the most corrupted.
Ind..........Ohio...............46..................27R.............19S
Indiana is similar but slightly more conservative than Ohio.
Ken........Kan.................45..................8R................37S
Kentucky is like Kansas.
Loui.........Okla..............46..................15R..............15S..............16N
Louisiana is southern state, like Oklahoma.
Mary.........lib.................37..................37R
Maryland is liberal, WTA.
Miss.........Okla...............40.................13R................14S............13N
Mississippi is southern state, like Oklahoma.
Missou.....Tenn............. 52................15R.................27S.............10N
Missouri has more self-righteous Christians, like Tenn.
Mont.........Wyo.............26.................26R
Montana is far west state, like Wyoming, maybe some for Santorum due to more conservatism, but not much.
Neb...........Minn.............35................17R.................18S
Nebraska is more conservative of the far west, so I used Minnesota model.
NJ............lib..................50.................50R
NJ is liberal. WTA
NY..........lib..................95..................95R
NY is liberal, WTA at districts, so Newt can steal some here.
NC..........Okl............ .55..................25R................15S.............15N
NC is southern but more transient, therefore, more liberal, hybrid between Okla/Ohio.
Ore..........lib..................28..................28R
Oregon is liberal, like Washington.
Penn.......Mich..............72...................30R..............35S..............7N
Penn is like Ohio, but Santorum’s home state, more sophisticated than Ohio so Newt gets some.
RI...........lib..................19....................19R
RI is liberal.
S.Dako...Wyo...............28...................18R...............10S
South Dakota is far west state but conservative, I used Ohio model.
TX ........Tenn/GA........155.................44R..............27S.............84N
I use hybrid model between Tenn and GA due to the natures of soutern state and Perry’s endorsement for Newt.
Uta........Wyo.................40..................40R
Utah is Mormon state.
WV........Okla................31..................15R...............7S..............8N
West Virginia is like Virginia, goes with establishment, not sophisticated, Oklahoma-light model here with Romney is favored.
Wis........NDak..............42..................14R..............22S.............6N
Wisconsin is intellectual, rural, ND or Tenn model here.
Puerto.....lib...................23..................23R
Puerto is liberal.
Total...................................................857R
Romney now has 455, needs to have 1,144 for nomination. With projected 857 delegates, he will have 455 + 857 = 1312 delegates.
I took into account state-wise and district winner-take-all options from most states. Of course I will miss some technicalities here and there but the whole picture does look gloomy.
Lindsey Graham is a tool!
Lindsey Graham is a tool!
You can say that again.
So obammalite will run against obamma himself. Great choice! NOT! Why vote this year? Pathetic!
“The Pure” can stay home on Election Day: after all, we’d suffer more under President Giuliani than President Obama. /s
Romney has 1145 delegates?
I could really care less about what Goober Graham thinks or says.
He is just a fagot that wants his gay marriage buddy mitt elected.
LLS
“Lindsey Graham is a tool!”
And Barney Frank’s not telling...
I’m mathmatically frustrated with liberal Republicans.
Juist think of the money we could save on these tiresome elections if we just asked Miss Lindsey to identify the real winner right at the start.
In realville, it is over, especially if both Newt and Sanotrum stay in the race and split the conservative vote.
Even then, Romney has so many liberal states coming up (NY, NJ, MD, CA, IL, etc). Plus they are proportional, so he’ll get his 25-30% lockstep RINO vote (even in red states) and rack up even more delegates.
Interesting. It does look gloomy from those numbers. Thanks for your analysis.
Weird...why is that detail added? That's true of every member of Congress.
If what he means is that Romney has to win 25 percent of the remaining delegates, he ought to comprehend that it is anything but a done deal.
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