MY ANALYSIS WITH NEWT DROPPING OUT OF THE RACE:
Each following line will list the state name by its first 3-4 letters, the model I use to estimate the delegate breakdown( lib for liberal), total delegates allocated, and delegate shares designated with R for Romney, S for Santorum.
(Based on delegate counts from Real Clear Politics – which calculated Romney has 455, Santorum 199, and Newt 117 at the time I did this analysis.)
Ala.........Okla..............50.................. 0R.........50S
Alabama is truly southern state, therefore, will vote like Oklahoma.
Cali........Wash..............172..............129R........43S
California is liberal state with CD winner take all.
Conn........lib.................28.................28R
Connecticut is libral state with winner-take-all, WTA
Del...........lib.................17..................17R
Delaware is the same as Conn.
DC...........lib...................19...............19R
DC is the same as Delaware.
Haw.........lib...................20..................20R
Hawaii is the same as DC.
Ill............lib....................69..................69R
Illinois is the most corrupted.
Ind..........Ohio...............46..................27R.......19S
Indiana is similar but slightly more conservative than Ohio.
Ken........Kan.................45..................0R................45S
Kentucky is like Kansas.
Loui.........Okla..............46..................0R..............46S
Louisiana is southern state, like Oklahoma.
Mary.........lib.................37..................37R
Maryland is liberal, WTA.
Miss.........Okla...............40.................0R................40
Mississippi is southern state, like Oklahoma.
Missou.....Tenn............. 52................0R.................52S
Missouri has more self-righteous Christians, like Tenn.
Mont.........Wyo.............26.................26R
Montana is far west state, like Wyoming, maybe some for Santorum due to more conservatism, but not much.
Neb...........Minn.............35................17R.................18S
Nebraska is more conservative of the far west, so I used Minnesota model.
NJ............lib..................50.................50R
NJ is liberal. WTA
NY..........lib..................95..................95R
NY is liberal, WTA at districts.Santorum might get some districts here.
NC..........Okl............ .55..................25R................30S
NC is southern but more transient, therefore, more liberal, hybrid between Okla/Ohio.
Ore..........lib..................28..................28R
Oregon is liberal, like Washington.
Penn.......Mich..............72...................20R..............52S
Penn is like Ohio, but Santorum’s home state.
RI...........lib..................19....................19R
RI is liberal.
S.Dako...Wyo...............28...................18R...............10S
South Dakota is far west state but conservative, I used Ohio model.
TX ........Tenn/GA........155.................0R..............155S
I use hybrid model between Tenn and GA due to the natures of southern state.Ron Paul might deny Santorum 50% majority here.
Uta........Wyo.................40..................40R
Utah is Mormon state.
WV........Okla................31..................16R...............15S
West Virginia is like Virginia, goes with establishment, not sophisticated, Oklahoma-light model here with Romney is favored.
Wis........NDak..............42..................20R..............22S
Wisconsin is intellectual, rural, ND or Tenn model here.
Puerto.....lib...................23..................23R
Puerto is liberal.
Total...................................................801R
Romney now has 455, needs to have 1,144 for nomination. With projected 801 delegates, he will have 455 + 801 = 1198 delegates. Romney has 1198 -1144 = 54 delegates to spare if you want to argue with some plus or minus of my numbers. And I am very generous with Santorum.
I took into account state-wise and district winner-take-all options from most states. Of course I will miss some technicalities here and there but the whole picture does look gloomy.
People can be optimistic in saying as long as it is not Obama, they don’t care who wins. Really? Can we tolerate the loss of religious freedom and general liberty, more debt, national bankruptcy due to healthcare, federal hate crimes against our religious leaders and churches for not “marrying” homosexual couples in churches or for not providing them entertaining services or allowing them to perform lewd acts in public! Lord, have mercy!
“Lord, have mercy!”
May He have mercy on the plain folk. May He reward the powers and principalities with what they have earned, and may that reward be swift, final and clearly from His hand.
Sadly, the Lord doesn’t seem to help those so uninformed to help themselves. A miracle is needed.
Your work is commendable and gives Santorum the benefit of all doubt. It’s just too bad our little Republican primary voters don’t see things as we do. They just want “a winner,” much as they do with their favorite sports teams.