Posted on 03/14/2012 8:40:27 AM PDT by Iron Munro
Despite his losses in the Alabama and Mississippi primaries, Mitt Romney appears to have expanded his delegate lead on Tuesday.
The most recent projections from AP show Rick Santorum took 31 delegates from Alabama and Mississippi, while Newt Gingrich took 24 delegates and Romney got 23
But this morning, Romney was projected to win all nine delegates from American Samoa’s caucuses, and he also won the Hawaii caucuses by a large margin.
AP projections show Romney beat Santorum 18 delegates to four in those jurisdictions.
So, as of this morning, Romney has won 41 delegates from Tuesday’s contests, compared to 35 for Santorum, thereby expanding Romney’s delegate lead. (Gingrich is projected to have won 24 delegates.)
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Only thing certain is death & taxes. So obviously it is not 100% certain who will be the nominee. There are some very large and expensive states coming up. Grassroots won’t cut it. Must have millions of $$ to put ads on TV & radio. CA & NY are prohibitively expensive and not any where as conservative as MS & AL. Santorum has one large donor to fund his super pack. If that donor shells out more millions, we could go into brokered convention. If not, Romney has a good chance to get 1144 after Utah.
Wrong, Romney had about 53% of the delegates as of last week even with only 39% of the vote. It gets easier for him to accumulate more in an imbalanced fashion since many more states will now be winner-take-all, including Puerto Rico, D.C., Utah, Delaware, etc. No predictions can now be made without an extremely careful state-by-state analysis analyzing every single rule in detail. The delegates needed to deny him the nomination are too close now. Nothing but a game-changer like Newt or Rick dropping out or Mitt getting indicted for something can ensure a Romney loss.
Exit polls in Michigan (open primary) show that Santorum received many more democrat votes than any other candidate.
Futhermore, he needs 46% of the remaining vote to win the nomination outright, he won’t get 46% of the remaining vote and each primary he does not get 46% of the vote, that percentage only goes higher.
It is not a static percentage as times goes on.
So after he loses Texas and a number of other states, and wins several in the 30% range, the percentage of votes he needs to win in the remaining states will be above 55% and probably closer to 60%.
Like I said, he can’t win outright.
Too bad he only can get about 1/3 of the vote.
Go Newt!
Did the calc again and I come up with Santorum needing to win 65% of remaining delegates to win the nomination. Please explain your take on “demographics of the remaining states.”
I’m not pushing a candidate here, just trying to understand the logistics of the battle. It looks like the big question revolves around the ability of Newt and/or Santorum to stay in the race. Money in other words.
“the not-Romneys must win 52% of the remaining delegates to stop Romney from taking the homination outright.”
Right. And if that happens, you can take it to the bank that Santorum will trade his delegates for the VP spot on Romney’s ticket.
That’s the game he’s playing. He knows he doesn’t stand a chance of winning the nomination in a contested convention.
That’s bad news about American Samoa, because you know the old saying: “As goes American Samoa, so goes the nation...”
...
So, as of this morning, Romney has won 41 delegates from Tuesday’s contests, compared to 35 for Santorum, thereby expanding Romney’s delegate lead. (Gingrich is projected to have won 24 delegates.)Interesting that Wapo can't do the basic math:
41 Romney delegates vs. (35+24)=59 non-Romney delegates
The endgame at this point is to keep Romney from 1,144 delegates and force a contested, if not brokered, convention.
"And as a result, Obama will get 4 more years in his quest to destroy American, and appoint one or possibly two more commie Supreme Court justices."
The "war" is coming either way. If the American people are still so stupid to vote barry or mittens, perhaps we deserve to be destroyed, as is, so we can rebuild.
I'm still not sure if we are beyond a "point of no return". Time will tell.
Are you sure Jedi? There are still big states to come that are not winner take all. For instance, how can Rick or Newt singlehandedly prevent Romney from getting any delegates in California? That’s kind of naive IMO.
“So after he loses Texas and a number of other states, and wins several in the 30% range”
Most of the remaining races are winner-take-all and there are still 1,358 delegates to be won.
If you just look at California, New York and New Jersey, there are 317 delegates available and they will not be awarded proportionally.
Your math just doesn’t add up.
hey willardbots...nah,nah,nah,nah,nah..nah..[sticks out tongue]
See post #37.
Your math does not add up.
I’m sure obummer thinks it’s sweet too. We can’t even get a candidate strong enough to win? I doubt he’s too worried about his sucky poll numbers. We needed a strong candidate. The Communists and Marxists didn’t come this close only to lose it all in 2012 and us having no strong candidate is not a good thing.
The total delegate count for the remaining 8 primaries that are Winner-Take-All is 388.
Romney can’t win.
Both Newt and Rick need to stay in the race, primarily, to keep Rick honest and in the game to the end.
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