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How Gingrich's Candidacy Could Help Santorum
Real Clear Politics ^ | 12-14-12 | Conroy

Posted on 03/14/2012 9:27:16 PM PDT by VinL

When Mitt Romney walked into the West Virginia Republican delegate convention on Feb. 5, 2008, he had every reason to believe that he was about to notch a key Super Tuesday victory that would help spark his candidacy.

The Romney campaign had been laying the groundwork in West Virginia for a year-and-a-half, while John McCain and Mike Huckabee barely had a footprint in the state. West Virginia's system that year awarded 18 of its convention delegates based on the results of a vote taken by 1,207 county delegates who had gathered that day in a giant ballroom in Charleston.

This rule placing delegate allocation in the hands of party regulars, rather than voters, was assumed to be a major asset for the well-organized Romney. But the system ended up being his downfall.

After Romney fell just short of the 50 percent threshold required to win on the first ballot, McCain’s and Ron Paul’s forces defected en masse to Huckabee on the second ballot, propelling the former Arkansas governor to just over 50 percent of the vote -- and a win. Romney dropped out of the race two days later.

The former Massachusetts governor’s unpleasant experience in the Mountain State serves as a reminder that if he fails to secure the 1,144 delegates needed to win the Republican presidential nomination on the first ballot of the 2012 Republican National Convention, all bets may be off.

By any measure..

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: gingrich; kenyanbornmuzzie; mittromney; newt; newtgingrich; ricksantorum
Still for the smartest guy in the room. -:)


1 posted on 03/14/2012 9:27:19 PM PDT by VinL
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To: VinL

If Gingrich drops off, Santorum would get 57% of his vote tally and 27% would go to Romney according to the following analysis based on PPP internal polling.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/08/how-would-santorum-do-without-gingrich/


2 posted on 03/14/2012 9:30:13 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Steelfish

Steelfish, last poll by Ras- Romney 54- San 36. He’s not beating Romney one on one—

Smart move- take Vp to Newt— and be in power for the next 16 years.


3 posted on 03/14/2012 9:35:21 PM PDT by VinL (It is better to suffer every wrong, than to consent to wrong.)
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To: VinL

I was for Gingrich until Santorum scored his trifecta. I have no problem with Gingrich as VP but right now by staying in the race he’s making that choice very difficult.


4 posted on 03/14/2012 9:38:12 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Steelfish

Even still, that’s 27% going Romney’s way which Santorum cannot afford.

There is absolutely no way Santorum can reach 1,144 delegates, regardless if Newt’s in or not. The best we can hope for is to deny Romney from reaching 1,144 and force a brokered convention.


5 posted on 03/14/2012 9:41:29 PM PDT by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State | Gingrich 2012)
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To: Steelfish

Newt needs to join up with Santorum or get out of the race.


6 posted on 03/14/2012 9:42:44 PM PDT by Netizen (Path to citizenship = Scamnesty. If you give it away, more will come. Who's pilfering your wallet?)
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To: Steelfish

The Newt supporters have to face with reality now, now if they want Newt to still be in this race and be on a winning team and stop Romney and Paul, Newt can drop out as a Presidential candidate and pledge his support for Rick Santorum and welcome to be Rick’s VP.


7 posted on 03/14/2012 9:44:34 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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To: VinL
The little girl knows who is the best.

Barrington. Illinios

8 posted on 03/14/2012 9:46:03 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: VinL
Cute picture.

When Romney looses at the convention. WILL HE GO AWAY FOR GOOD? He is as much of a nightmare as Obama.

I trust Newt, I trust that he has a plan and knows exactly what he is doing by staying this race.

Newt Gingrich so loves America, he is not stupid and if push comes to shove, he will support Santorum as all of us will, but he is going to get something out of it for himself and for all of us. Either way WE WIN.

I'm still with and trust Newt. He dispises Romney and will do everything in his power to crush him. Hang on the ride is going to be fun.

9 posted on 03/14/2012 9:46:49 PM PDT by annieokie
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To: Netizen

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-03-14/gingrich-vow-to-fight-disrupts-santorum-s-plan-to-take-on-romney


10 posted on 03/14/2012 9:46:58 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Utmost Certainty
One way to stop Romney and Paul that all of us can agree on is for Newt to drop out and pledge his support for Rick Santorum and accept a spot as Rick's VP choice and stop Romney, Paul, and Adelson's money.

11 posted on 03/14/2012 9:47:13 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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To: American Constitutionalist

You’re not thinking tactically enough. If Newt drops out, and if even a mere 25% of Newt supporters go to Romney, Romney will cinch the magic # of 1,144 delegates.


12 posted on 03/14/2012 9:47:52 PM PDT by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State | Gingrich 2012)
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To: VinL

bogus poll... 80% landline.

Santorum is underpolling over and over because of this and a general undersampling of voters under 50.

He didn’t lead any polls going into MS... he carried every demo under 50 by double digits in the exit polls.


13 posted on 03/14/2012 9:56:30 PM PDT by rwilson99 (Please tell me how the words "shall not perish and have everlasting life" would NOT apply to Mary.)
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To: Utmost Certainty
Put it this way.... Most of Romney's voters were those who were going to vote for him even back in 2008... and most of Romney's support and voters made their minds up about him even a year ago.
Romney is not going to pull in the conservative vote and Tuesday was definite proof of that... he could not fool the people in the south and the Christians.
Romney will also get the vote of those who have not been paying attention and go to the voting booth and pull the lever because the MSM, RNC, and the GOP establishment told them to because he was the supposed inevidibale GOP nomniee.
Yes, also, Romney will get the vote of those cross over votes from the radical leftist liberal Democrats who want to put a monkey wrench in all of this.
However, other than that ? ... that's it... that's all Romney will get.
Yes, there maybe a few Newt supporters who can't stand Rick Santorum and some of his supporters, but, that is only a few and they will see what is at stake here and now.
Rick will get 75 % of Newt's supporters votes if not more if Newt drops out and endorses Rick and joins his team.

14 posted on 03/14/2012 10:07:11 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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To: American Constitutionalist; Netizen; rwilson99

I said it when Newt was in the lead- he couldn’t beat Romney one on one; and neither can Rick.

Newt is framing this entire process- w/o him, Rick is lost.

Rick should just sit back and come along for the ride- just like 1994.


15 posted on 03/14/2012 10:07:23 PM PDT by VinL (It is better to suffer every wrong, than to consent to wrong.)
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To: VinL

That might be true... I’m all for a Rick/Newt Ticket... or the other way around if Newt surges in delegates.

If not... who knows with a brokered convention. As long as we don’t nominate Obamney.


16 posted on 03/14/2012 10:17:54 PM PDT by rwilson99 (Please tell me how the words "shall not perish and have everlasting life" would NOT apply to Mary.)
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To: Utmost Certainty
" If Newt drops out, and if even a mere 25% of Newt supporters go to Romney "

Ask yourself and the other Newt supporters that question.

You don't have to give me that answer or other Sanotrum supporters the answer to that question.... talk it among yourselves, but please ask that question for yourself, is it really true ?
Would 25 % go to Romney ?
Ask that question among yourselves... you don't really need to tell us the Santorum supporters that.
The Newt supporters don't want to see Romney as the GOP nominee as much as the Santorum supporters do, and that is something that at least we can agree on.
But, time is running out and Romney and Paul are rumored to be joining up , and there is news that Adelson might drop support for Newt and help Romney.

17 posted on 03/14/2012 10:19:51 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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To: rwilson99
" I’m all for a Rick/Newt Ticket "

Now would that be a compromise that the Newt supporters and Santourm supporters accept and stop fighting among ourselves ?
That way ? the Newt supporters can still see their guy still in the race and still root for their guy and be on a winning team to stop Romney and Paul.... but time is running out and a decision needs to be made very soon.
18 posted on 03/14/2012 10:22:09 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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To: American Constitutionalist

Honestly not before April 4th with the proportional award of delegates systems in place.

Once things go winner take all someone has to apply the wisdom of Solomon & Reagan and get out.

Newt is perfect for the VP campaign role... doesn’t have to filter, just follow around Obama and throw rhetorical bombs.


19 posted on 03/14/2012 10:34:05 PM PDT by rwilson99 (Please tell me how the words "shall not perish and have everlasting life" would NOT apply to Mary.)
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To: Steelfish; VinL
According to the article posted here:

According to recent exit polls, more than half of Gingrich’s supporters said that they would be satisfied with Santorum as the nominee, while less than a third felt that way about Romney.

So bytthe reasoning of the very article being cited favorably here, if Gingrich dropped out, Santorum would get almost twice as much of Gingrich's support as Romney, and would put Santorum in the driver's seat.

20 posted on 03/14/2012 10:36:02 PM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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To: CharlesWayneCT; Steelfish

So (sic) bytthe reasoning of the very article being cited favorably here.......

***************
Who is citing it favorably?


21 posted on 03/14/2012 10:40:42 PM PDT by VinL (It is better to suffer every wrong, than to consent to wrong.)
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To: CharlesWayneCT

Absolutely on point! Indeed 57% of Gingrich voters would migrate to Santorum. This is why like in AR, Santorum scored a big win with over 51% of the vote.


22 posted on 03/14/2012 10:46:17 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: VinL; TBBT

Well, you didn’t put a “Barf alert” on it, or say anything unfavorable about it in the comments. But yes, you didn’t say anything particularly positive either.

BTW, anybody on the Gingrich team know what happened to TBBT? I just noticed I haven’t seen a post by that freeper in over a month.


23 posted on 03/14/2012 10:49:55 PM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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To: Netizen

Paul needs to get out of the race!


24 posted on 03/14/2012 10:54:45 PM PDT by Salvation ("With God all things are possible." Matthew 19:26)
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To: CharlesWayneCT

But yes, you didn’t say anything particularly positive either.

****************
Right; I posted w/o comment as to its content; as a matter potentially of interest to some. So, another erroneous, flawed post that you have directed at me— it’s getting tedious.


25 posted on 03/14/2012 11:01:55 PM PDT by VinL (It is better to suffer every wrong, than to consent to wrong.)
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To: Utmost Certainty
What kind of eight ball are you using, mine has a different number. It is not about the prior people it is about the future, rick can run the table with mr ego out.
26 posted on 03/14/2012 11:12:14 PM PDT by org.whodat
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To: org.whodat

Rick would need 66% of the remaining 1358 delegates to get to 1144. That isn’t going to happen.


27 posted on 03/14/2012 11:42:59 PM PDT by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State | Gingrich 2012)
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To: Utmost Certainty

If they can keep Romney from getting the number needed, then his camp will have to think real hard not only a VP slot, but about the Platform AND the stance they must take after the Convention.


28 posted on 03/15/2012 1:19:42 AM PDT by RobbyS (Christus rex.)
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To: VinL

i”m sorry you are so used to perfect people. I acknowledged the error, that’s really all I can do because I haven’t got my own time machine.


29 posted on 03/15/2012 8:57:26 AM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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