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FoxNews Chicago IL GOP Poll (Romney 37% Santorum 31% Newt 14%)
Fox Chicago News ^ | 03-16-2012 | Mike Flannery

Posted on 03/16/2012 7:57:55 AM PDT by parksstp

Chicago - The Republican race for president looks like a two-man contest in Illinois Thursday night.

Mitt Romney is ahead of Rick Santorum among Illinois Republicans, even after Santorum’s big victories in Alabama and Mississippi on Tuesday. But Santorum is within striking distance for next Tuesday's primary.

An exclusive FOX Chicago News poll found a six point lead for Romney among those likely to vote in the March 20 presidential primary.

Romney had the support of 37 percent on Wednesday. Rick Santorum earned 31 percent of the vote.

(Excerpt) Read more at myfoxchicago.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bigideasnewt; bitternewt; dumbideasrick; gingrich; il2012; moonstrucknewt; newt4romney; pornburnerricky; proillegalsrick; prounionsrick; rick4anticondomczar; ricksezbanspanish; rickseziwillbanporn; romney; santorum; votenewtgetmitt
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Like IA, Mid/Downstate IL is seeing population decreases. Theoretically, there's about 50 counties Santorum can take. He probably has to win each of those by 500-1000 votes to offset northern IL (have him down 30,000 votes in Cook, 12,000 in lake), etc, but even then, there's probably not enough conservatives in the state. He's probably topped at 37-38% and Romney will be junst under 45%, with Newt around 7 or 8, and Paul the rest.
1 posted on 03/16/2012 7:58:00 AM PDT by parksstp
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To: parksstp
Looks like Ohio. Big surprise. Not sure what Gingrich is doing, but it's still obvious he can't go north while Santorum can go south. One thing in Santorum's favor is most of Romney's supporters aren't that enthusiastic to begin with and now they've been told for weeks that Romney is inevitable, so they may not show. Romney should be careful trying to bluff people out of the race by contending he's inevitable, because voters won't show for him if they are convinced of that.
2 posted on 03/16/2012 8:08:07 AM PDT by throwback ( The object of opening the mind, as of opening the mouth, is to shut it again on something solid.)
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To: parksstp

The Newtbots, nonetheless, will stick with Newt because Rick Santorum has minor imperfections as a conservative and Newt has none.


3 posted on 03/16/2012 8:08:07 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: parksstp

I hate to say it, but it’s time for Newt and Paul to drop out.


4 posted on 03/16/2012 8:08:53 AM PDT by servantboy777
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To: Steelfish; Lazlo in PA; writer33; cripplecreek; antonius; Brices Crossroads

ping!


5 posted on 03/16/2012 8:09:43 AM PDT by parksstp (I pick RIck! (If he's good enough for Mark Levin and Rush Limbaugh, he's good enough for me))
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To: parksstp

Whatever. If Romney can’t crack 50% in a state like Illinois when he is calling himself the inevitable candidate, he has SERIOUS problems.


6 posted on 03/16/2012 8:14:24 AM PDT by Thunder90 (Romney barely won in OH with a 12-1 money advantage, he can't beat Obama that way.)
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To: parksstp

Since Rick has out performed the polls time and again, try a magic eight ball for predictions.


7 posted on 03/16/2012 8:18:15 AM PDT by org.whodat
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To: parksstp

Politics as usual fools the American electorate one more time.


8 posted on 03/16/2012 8:18:46 AM PDT by gitmogrunt
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To: parksstp

This looks like the state where the split conservative vote can do some of the most damage.

This state is direct delegate election by district. That means just like with Clinton/Bush/Perot, whichever candidates’ delegates get the most votes in that district win. They don’t need 50% or a majority, just the highest amount of votes. Romney will walk away with all 69 delegates if this poll holds across all counties. Yet if Newt’s votes went to Rick, Rick would walk away with all 69 delegates.

Losing this state’s delegates is a loss we probably can’t afford to take if we want to stop Romney from winning the nomination. There will probably be no contested convention if he gets more than half of the Illinois delegates. Every single delegate counts and given all the upcoming states Romney is guaranteed to do strong in, we need to win these “swing” states decisively to beat him.


9 posted on 03/16/2012 8:22:21 AM PDT by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: servantboy777
it’s time for Newt and Paul to drop out...

for the good of the nation.

10 posted on 03/16/2012 8:24:24 AM PDT by stars & stripes forever (Blessed is the nation whose God is the Lord!)
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To: parksstp; Lazlo in PA; Antoninus
Get it straight Newtsters: Sheldon Adelson has taken you for suckers.
11 posted on 03/16/2012 8:27:02 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (The RNC would prefer Obama to a conservative nominee.)
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To: servantboy777

“I hate to say it, but it’s time for Newt and Paul to drop out.”

Agreed. At this juncture, they’ve made their points and only ego is causing them to ‘hang on’.


12 posted on 03/16/2012 8:29:36 AM PDT by MichaelCorleone (Stop feeding the beast; spend money only with those who support traditional American values.)
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To: parksstp

Illinois is being bombarded with massive pro-Romney robocalls, media ads, and glowing commentary on even the “conservative” talk radio station. The only thing mentioning Santorum or Gingrich is highly negative. I have not heard a single positive ANYTHING from or about Santorum. NOTHING.


13 posted on 03/16/2012 8:48:52 AM PDT by Proud2BeRight
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To: parksstp
He probably has to win each of those by 500-1000 votes to offset northern IL (have him down 30,000 votes in Cook, 12,000 in lake),

I live in Ogle County, northern IL around, and even in, Rockford is going Santorum.

Not all of northern IL is greater Chicago.
14 posted on 03/16/2012 9:10:51 AM PDT by Dr. Sivana (May Mitt Romney be the Paul Tsongas of 2012.)
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To: JediJones
Romney will walk away with all 69 delegates if this poll holds across all counties. Yet if Newt’s votes went to Rick, Rick would walk away with all 69 delegates.

False assumption. Outside of greater Chicago and maybe Champaign and Peoria, the rest of the state votes like Nebraska or Indiana. Romney will probably crack 50% in Chicago. He won't crack 30% in large swaths of the downstate and NW area.
15 posted on 03/16/2012 9:14:41 AM PDT by Dr. Sivana (May Mitt Romney be the Paul Tsongas of 2012.)
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To: Proud2BeRight
I have not heard a single positive ANYTHING from or about Santorum. NOTHING.

My wife and kids just saw him 2 hours ago at the Rockford Holiday Inn. He's crossing the state in a bus today. It is true that he has no money for an air war, which makes his wins and close calls more impressive.
16 posted on 03/16/2012 9:17:50 AM PDT by Dr. Sivana (May Mitt Romney be the Paul Tsongas of 2012.)
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To: parksstp

It seems that Newton is again playing the role of Perot. Is Perot one of his contributors, or is Perot with Obama?


17 posted on 03/16/2012 9:25:29 AM PDT by Theodore R. (Mathematically, it's all over, says Mittens. I'm pretty sure the people will again let us down.)
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To: Thunder90

Romney doesn’t have to get 50 percent anywhere, does he? It’s delegates that count, and he has the inside track, with Newton helping Romney.


18 posted on 03/16/2012 9:27:24 AM PDT by Theodore R. (Mathematically, it's all over, says Mittens. I'm pretty sure the people will again let us down.)
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To: Dr. Sivana

Is IL Mormon friendly? Is Nauvoo still a Mormon enclave?


19 posted on 03/16/2012 9:29:05 AM PDT by Theodore R. (Mathematically, it's all over, says Mittens. I'm pretty sure the people will again let us down.)
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To: Dr. Sivana

Feels like it though.

In 08, Romney ran well in the Quads area and along the MO/IL border counties. However, it’s hard to tell what support is actually still intact because at the time, he was garnering a strong Anti-McCain vote.

Turnout will be key. If it’s low in the North, Santorum may not have to make up as much as Romney did when he was blown out by McCain.

If Rockford is truly purple (CNN’s Santorum color), then Santorum will be in good shape. I have my doubts about that area though.


20 posted on 03/16/2012 9:32:20 AM PDT by parksstp (I pick RIck! (If he's good enough for Mark Levin and Rush Limbaugh, he's good enough for me))
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To: parksstp

Gee, I did not know there were 14 Republicans in Chicago!


21 posted on 03/16/2012 9:37:56 AM PDT by MIchaelTArchangel (Romney ruined Massachusetts. Now he wants to ruin the nation.)
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To: Theodore R.

It could make for a good convention floor fight. I expect one if Romney can’t reach at least 1180 delegates (Florida and Arizona will be challenged).


22 posted on 03/16/2012 9:42:04 AM PDT by Thunder90 (Romney barely won in OH with a 12-1 money advantage, he can't beat Obama that way.)
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To: Dr. Sivana

Romney’s a phoney!


23 posted on 03/16/2012 9:48:26 AM PDT by cliffco (cliffco)
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To: Theodore R.

I’m a Mitt guy. But Newt shoulld get out.Let Mitt and Rick duke it out and I will enthusiastically to vote for either candidate in the election.


24 posted on 03/16/2012 10:38:43 AM PDT by TShaunK
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To: parksstp

Willard should not have been in a Republican race to begin with. If anyone has screwed up things it is Barack McBomney. Certainly not Gingrich.


25 posted on 03/16/2012 11:05:09 AM PDT by Leep (Dueling tag lines=don't worry,you'll be a vegetable guy soon<>It's gonna be a Newt day!)
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To: throwback

Be careful what you wish for.

Remember that if Newt drops out, EVERY one of his delegates becomes a free agent, free to vote for whomever they want.

The GOP-E and Team Romney will be at the door of every single one of those delegates, promising them influence, jobs, positions, and future support. They will have bottomless wallets, and all of the party machinery to back-up those promises.

In other words, do you really want to wake-up after the IL Primary and see Romney with over 750 committed delegates?

Rick Santorum has said it himself: the key is a brokered convention; neither he nor Newt can get to 1144.


26 posted on 03/16/2012 11:08:01 AM PDT by TitansAFC (Newt-torum can broker 1144 delegates in August - THEY CAN DO IT!!!)
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To: Leep

Also not Bachmann, not Cain, and not Perry... but Rinostablishmentarian and fake conservative Willack McBomney.


27 posted on 03/16/2012 11:08:19 AM PDT by Leep (Dueling tag lines=don't worry,you'll be a vegetable guy soon<>It's gonna be a Newt day!)
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To: Dr. Sivana
False assumption. Outside of greater Chicago and maybe Champaign and Peoria, the rest of the state votes like Nebraska or Indiana. Romney will probably crack 50% in Chicago. He won't crack 30% in large swaths of the downstate and NW area.

Then it will all depend how the districts are divided. If no district has Romney between 30% and 50%, then the vote-splitting between Newt and Rick won't make a difference. There would be no way to defeat Romney in the 50%+ districts and one of our guys would already beating him in his 30%- districts. But if any district represents the spread in this poll or another spread where Romney is between 30-45%, then our vote splitting will hand him delegates. If he continues being able to get half the delegates from big states like this (and Pennsylvania, West Virginia, California, Texas, Wisconsin, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana), then there's probably no path to stopping him from winning the nomination by June.

28 posted on 03/16/2012 11:14:36 AM PDT by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: TitansAFC
Remember that if Newt drops out, EVERY one of his delegates becomes a free agent, free to vote for whomever they want.

Wouldn't that happen at a brokered convention too? They can't win unless they can hold onto their delegates after they become free agents.

Rick Santorum has said it himself: the key is a brokered convention; neither he nor Newt can get to 1144.

The problem is Mitt's on his way to 1,144 without a game changer in this race. If we can mind control everyone to vote for Santorum instead of Newt, then we can win if he stays in, but that's the only way. 2/3rds of the upcoming delegates are subject to winner-take-all rules...about 800. If Ross Perot-style vote splitting causes us to lose any to Romney, then he's going to hit 1,144. We can just barely deny him the nomination if we win in every single moderate/swing state/district where vote-splitting is putting us at risk.

29 posted on 03/16/2012 11:20:39 AM PDT by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: Dr. Sivana

I agree with your take on how well Santorum is doing considering he’s being outspent six or more to one in most states.

And this despite so many top level Republican leaders coming out for Romney.

Folks are braving a very strong headwind, to go in Santorum’s direction.


30 posted on 03/16/2012 11:28:44 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Abortion? No. Gov't heath care? No. Gore on warming? No. McCain on immigration? No.)
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To: JediJones

If what you say is true about 1,144 delegates for Romney..then what does it matter if a single candidate (Satorum according to your analysis/) or if Santorum and Gingrich double team Romney and deprive him of reaching 1,144 delegates?


31 posted on 03/16/2012 11:31:37 AM PDT by Leep (Dueling tag lines=don't worry,you'll be a vegetable guy soon<>It's gonna be a Newt day!)
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To: JediJones

I agree with your thoughts, and it bothers me that a candidate would play into this eventuality. I was prepared to call on Santorum to drop out after last Tuesday if he lost those primaries.

Romney MUST NOT get our nomination. I could vote for Newt if he prevailed, but it’s not going to happen. Be the bigger man. Save your efforts for 2016 if you don’t want to give your goal to be president.


32 posted on 03/16/2012 11:32:45 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Abortion? No. Gov't heath care? No. Gore on warming? No. McCain on immigration? No.)
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To: Thunder90
Take into account who is the mayor of Chicago. Any poll in Illinois, regardless of how accurate or timely, is entirely pointless.

No honest Republican can dominate over the Illinois Dead Vote,
The Vaporous Chicago Ballot Box,
The Ghost of Daleys Past,
The Prison Reunion of Illinois Governors,
The 24 Volume Partial Cyclopedia of Indicted Illinois Public Servants...

33 posted on 03/16/2012 11:34:47 AM PDT by jonascord (Ask any Democrat. He's firmly convinced that he's brighter than you.)
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To: Leep

NH set the course for the awful results since.


34 posted on 03/16/2012 11:38:51 AM PDT by Theodore R. (Mathematically, it's all over, says Mittens. I'm pretty sure the people will again let us down.)
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To: jonascord

The IL elite don’t care how a Republican primary turns out. Such primaries are meaningless there with so many wall-to-wall liberals. But 37-31-14 says it all, and it must be discouraging for Santorum to go through the motions. At least he will get a broad look at IL, but I think he lived there in boyhood.


35 posted on 03/16/2012 11:41:30 AM PDT by Theodore R. (Mathematically, it's all over, says Mittens. I'm pretty sure the people will again let us down.)
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To: Leep

So let me understand this. From what it seems the best chance of beating Romney is to keep Newt IN the race, to ensure that we go to a brokered convention.

However....If that happens, won’t the GOP establishment just hand the nomination to Mittens anyway?


36 posted on 03/16/2012 12:39:43 PM PDT by sandshark222
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To: parksstp

Read no further 37-31-14 is the recipe for conservative disaster.


37 posted on 03/16/2012 2:05:09 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Mathematically, it's all over, says Mittens. I'm pretty sure the people will again let us down.)
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To: throwback

Chicago would NEVER vote for a true conservative. Rino #1 in first; rino #2 in second. Your are talking Obamaland


38 posted on 03/16/2012 2:10:15 PM PDT by katiedidit1 ("This is one race of people for whom psychoanalysis is of no use whatsoever." the Irish)
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To: Theodore R.

Perot? well let me tell you one thing..Bush 41 was not the conservative we hoped for..read my lips. This is America and Newt should and will stay in..Newt already helped Santorum win one election...the gop revolution when Newt was speaker.


39 posted on 03/16/2012 2:12:29 PM PDT by katiedidit1 ("This is one race of people for whom psychoanalysis is of no use whatsoever." the Irish)
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To: TitansAFC
And yet this same logic didn't restrain the Gingrich supporters from asking Santorum to leave the race earlier. But that was different, wasn't it?
40 posted on 03/16/2012 2:32:52 PM PDT by throwback ( The object of opening the mind, as of opening the mouth, is to shut it again on something solid.)
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To: throwback

Yes,

when one candidate had THERE bound delegates, it was different, throwback.

Duh.


41 posted on 03/16/2012 2:50:49 PM PDT by TitansAFC (Newt-torum can broker 1144 delegates in August - THEY CAN DO IT!!!)
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To: JediJones

—”Wouldn’t that happen at a brokered convention too?”—

No, because the spotlight would be on them, and everyone would be making a pitch and paying attention. The delegates could be “bought” now because of the endless time and secretive deals that would certainly be made.

Buying delegates one-by-one at a brokered convention will be impossibly harder, because we’ll know each delegate’s name by heart, and they will be asked where they stand by the press every five minutes of the day.


42 posted on 03/16/2012 2:54:46 PM PDT by TitansAFC (Newt-torum can broker 1144 delegates in August - THEY CAN DO IT!!!)
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To: servantboy777

Your analysis is not confirmed by this poll:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/153308/Romney-Santorum-Tie-Gingrich-Voters-Second-Choice.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=syndication&utm_content=morelink&utm_term=All%20Gallup%20Headlines%20-%20Politics

Romney will get LESS delegates if Newt stays in based on above poll.


43 posted on 03/16/2012 4:15:15 PM PDT by entropy12 (Republicans do not hate, that is a monopoly of democrats.)
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To: entropy12
...not confirmed by this poll: Romney will get LESS delegates if Newt stays in based on above poll.

I don't think the poll is correct.

44 posted on 03/16/2012 4:37:22 PM PDT by FreeReign
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To: JediJones
Yet if Newt’s votes went to Rick, Rick would walk away with all 69 delegates.

When are you people going to wake up and realize that this proposition is a pipe dream?

If all those Newt voters were potential Santorum voters, they would be Santorum voters now. It isn't going to happen, and Santorum will not gain much if any ground at all on Romney when/if Newt drops out.

Reality. Deal with it.

45 posted on 03/16/2012 6:16:57 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: Thunder90

Most times he can’t crack forty, nevermind fifty. Look at how he did in his ‘home state’ of Michigan.


46 posted on 03/16/2012 7:04:25 PM PDT by MSF BU
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To: hinckley buzzard

So if Santorum announces Newt will be his V.P., Newt supporters will vote for Romney instead? I’ve been saying that’s the move that needs to happen for them to win. They have very few options now to deny Romney 1,144 delegates short of crossing their fingers, wishing upon a star, praying that Romney gaffes himself to death, or doing this combined-conservative ticket. If you want Romney to hit 1,144 in June and win the nomination, then keep arguing for the status quo in this race.


47 posted on 03/16/2012 7:10:47 PM PDT by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: FreeReign

Santorum wouldn’t even need all of Newt’s votes to deny Romney additional delegates. If Santorum is close to 50% in some states and is already ahead of Romney, all he needs is enough votes to push him over 50% to trigger winner-take-all threshold rules that would deny Romney delegates. If this happened in Alabama, for instance, Romney would have received fewer delegates than he got and Santorum would have got all of his, all of Newt’s, plus extra.


48 posted on 03/16/2012 7:13:24 PM PDT by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: MichaelCorleone

I’m a Newt supporter and I’ve said the same thing....but I just saw a shocking poll on FoxNews. Apparently the second choice of Newt supporters breaks down 44-39 FOR ROMNEY!

This doesn’t jive with my sense of things and I sure hope it isn’t correct. If it is, though, I think I just give up.

Hank


49 posted on 03/16/2012 8:51:56 PM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball (Screw it. Newt's the smartest candidate and the guy I want to see debating Obummer. Flame away.)
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To: Vigilanteman
"The Newtbots, nonetheless, will stick with Newt because Rick Santorum has minor imperfections as a conservative and Newt has none."

.....Actually, what will happen will be that Obama will win in a landslide because some how Romney is leading. Newt is the only one who can beat Obama, and Santorum is splitting the anti-Romney vote. Santorum does not have the experience or the gusto to lead. He comes off as a rookie. If Santorum runs again, people will remember how he botched this. We actually could have won it.......

50 posted on 03/16/2012 11:52:59 PM PDT by NoRedTape
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