Replies

This looks like the state where the split conservative vote can do some of the most damage.

This state is direct delegate election by district. That means just like with Clinton/Bush/Perot, whichever candidates’ delegates get the most votes in that district win. They don’t need 50% or a majority, just the highest amount of votes. Romney will walk away with all 69 delegates if this poll holds across all counties. Yet if Newt’s votes went to Rick, Rick would walk away with all 69 delegates.

Losing this state’s delegates is a loss we probably can’t afford to take if we want to stop Romney from winning the nomination. There will probably be no contested convention if he gets more than half of the Illinois delegates. Every single delegate counts and given all the upcoming states Romney is guaranteed to do strong in, we need to win these “swing” states decisively to beat him.

Romney will walk away with all 69 delegates if this poll holds across all counties. Yet if Newt’s votes went to Rick, Rick would walk away with all 69 delegates.

False assumption. Outside of greater Chicago and maybe Champaign and Peoria, the rest of the state votes like Nebraska or Indiana. Romney will probably crack 50% in Chicago. He won't crack 30% in large swaths of the downstate and NW area.

Yet if Newt’s votes went to Rick, Rick would walk away with all 69 delegates.

When are you people going to wake up and realize that this proposition is a pipe dream?

If all those Newt voters were potential Santorum voters, they would be Santorum voters now. It isn't going to happen, and Santorum will not gain much if any ground at all on Romney when/if Newt drops out.

Reality. Deal with it.