Skip to comments.Gingrich Forges Ahead As A Spoiler [Red State's Erick Erickson: "Time for Newt Gingrich To Exit"]
Posted on 03/16/2012 9:52:44 PM PDT by Steelfish
Gingrich Forges Ahead As A Spoiler
By Daniel Malloy and Katie Leslie The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
CHICAGO -- Newt Gingrich has unabashedly taken on the role of spoiler in the Republican presidential nomination contest, as a pair of losses in Tuesdays Deep South primaries cemented his position on the margins of the race.
Appearing on a radio show Wednesday morning in Chicago, Gingrich talked about the results in Alabama and Mississippi -- where he came in second to former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania -- as if he and Santorum were a kind of conservative tag team.
Between the two of us last night we got two-thirds of the delegates that were available, Gingrich said. Romney I think had his front-runner status deeply weakened when he could only get about one-third of the delegates that were available. And I think that theres a fairly good likelihood that were going to end the nominating process in June with no one having an absolute majority, and that will be one of the most interesting 60-day discussions weve ever had.
Gingrich said he believed such an outcome would lead to a wild brokered convention.
It really could be a very open, very creative convention, he said.
That is not the way Team Santorum sees it. Tuesday night on CNN, Santorum spokeswoman Alice Stewart said Gingrich should absolutely drop out to allow for a two-man race between her candidate and Romney.
Georgia-based conservative talk radio host Erick Erickson joined the dropout chorus Wednesday morning, writing on the RedState blog: It is time for Newt Gingrich to exit.
Gingrichs final act could be king maker by getting out and endorsing," Erickson wrote, "but pride cometh before the fall.
(Excerpt) Read more at ajc.com ...
CNN Eric Erikson-2 faced lying personality.
Steelfish, you are acting like a hack.... please..stop it..
Newt’s not going anywhere. I guess you didn’t read the post that I wrote to you about Gallup’s polling data. Gingrich gets out and Romney benefits where Ricky loses faster.
Gingrich is not a spoiler, except for Romney.
The polls are now showing half of his supporters would go to Romney, which would mean that Romney takes it.
Gingrich needs to STAY.
We must stop blaming the messenger. The message is clear. Gingrich’s “southern strategy” is now in ashes. We need to all back Santorum and stop Romney. That’s how I and yes, several anti-Romnians now see it. We are calling the shots as we see it. Calling us “hacks” etc does no good to your candidate. This is Gingrich’s leading home-paper echoing many conservatives including quite a few FReepers.
Yes RS, I did review you and you make some good points except the national poll is quite different from exit polling data in the actual state contests that show Gingrich’s supporters would go 57% to Santorum had he not been in the race.
Looks like that paper is a liberal rag...
"Gallup can simulate Republican preferences without Gingrich in the race by removing Gingrich votes and reassigning them to his voters' second-choice candidate. The results of this procedure suggest that national GOP preferences would change little if Gingrich dropped out. The reconfigured preferences show Romney getting 40% of the vote and Santorum getting 33%."
Newt is Not leaving..
Newt supporters want Newt in the race. Can't you see that?
If Mitt or Rick falls, Newt is there. Put your support with a reformer.
Steel, my friend, have you thought this through, thoroughly? If Newt leaves, he gives no more speeches on policy. And if he stops giving speeches, how will Rick know what to say??
Time of Erick Erickson to differ his last name from his first!
Yes, it’s not called the Atlanta Urinal Constitution for nothing.
Bravo Erick. Nailed it.
How’s Lil’ Ricky doing in IL?
I think Erickson is worried that Santorum might take the nomination if Newt stays in.
And that he’s come to the conclusion that Romney would be better than Santorum. (Note: this is what I think is *HIS* reasoning for the call.)
Gingrich makes an absolutely FANTASTIC argument when he says that his staying in FORCES the Romney forces to split their negative character assassination advertising efforts. That need (to not focus his negative advertising) eliminates the potential for Romney to continue to take a “rifle shot” approach (to eliminate the leading conservative opposition) and is making Romney’s negative campaigning less effective—actually, IMHO, it’s becoming non effective and probably counter-effective.
So keep it up Newt and let’s take it to the convention in Tampa where “family business can be settled”. I think this all is driving Mitts & his operatives slightly manic. And that’s a joy for me to behold!
Newt again gets Obama to respond.
"Without mentioning Gingrich, Obama said: There is no such thing as a quick fix when it comes to high gas prices. Theres no silver bullet. Anybody who tells you otherwise isnt really looking for a solution -- theyre trying to ride the political wave of the moment.
The president also mocked a lot of the folks who are running for a certain office -- who shall go unnamed -- for ridiculing alternative energy sources. They make jokes about biofuels, he said. They must have been founding members of the Flat Earth Society.
Gingrich, who has pummeled Obama mercilessly for touting algae as a possible fuel source, retorted that Obama apparently belongs to the Flat Earth Sierra Club Society.
I dont ridicule biofuels. I support biofuels, he said. The idea that algae is a solution this summer is a fantasy, and he knows that its a fantasy. "
Ricky needs Newt's leadership. :-)
Therein lies the problem RS, it speaks to “national GOP preferences” that is quite different from actual state-by-state exit polling data where primary voters have cast their ballots.
Ain't self government a bitch? All those folks like me that will ignore your superior wisdom and vote our own minds?
Newt had a disadvantage in MS Al with the cross over dems voting for Rick. Exit polls showed Rick in 3rd place-explain that. The D Kos and Move on are still asking dems to cross over in Illinois for Rick. Rick's base is not completely solid. How can you take a huge chance of that base holding up..This is common sense folks. This isn't hate.
Ricky needs Newt’s leadership. :-)
Hey Red, happy St. Pat’s!!! With this article, look’s like friend Steelfish started celebrating the occasion at the stroke of midnight.
“Steelfish, you are acting like a hack.... please..stop it..”
A hack does what a hack does. His panties are in a bunch over Newt and he can’t stop throwing a temper tantrum about it.
New York Times blogger Nate Silver analyzed data from Public Policy Polling to predict that Santorum would get 57 percent of Gingrich supporters and Romney would get 27 percent. Silver estimated that had Gingrich not been in the race, Santorum would have won four states that he lost, but Romney would still be ahead of Santorum in delegates.
Under Silver’s analysis, this would still have made for a dramatic turn in the direction of this race. You can hopefully understand why we who support Santorum are livid with Gingrich playing the spoiler role. Don’t take it personally.
Come on Steel— let’s have the antecedent to that quote:
“Over the long span of his career, no one save Ronald Reagan did more while in public office to advance the conservative cause than did Newt Gingrich.” Viquerie
That’s why I find this fellow’s logic specious. He doesn’t say Rick did more than anyone for conservatism while in office— Newt did. Why then does he support Rick?
Elementary my dear Watson, the results on the ground speak for themselves. Newt spoke about his “southern strategy” and at one point his campaign manager said that AL and MS were must wins for him staying in the race.That strategy is now reduced to rubble.
Then someone needs to pinch fishy with or without wearing green.
You seem desperate in which you are now taking the words of these
leftists (don't take it personally)
So when did Red State’s Erick Erickson become a “liberal”? That would be news to him.
Maybe it is impossible now. And maybe by the time we reach the convention it is not.
But I can say this with conviction. There’s only one candidate worth pulling a lever for in this group of three.
And also I agree completely that Newt leaving the race and allowing Romney and Santorum to duke it out will result almost certainly in a Romney win. Santorum is too weak personally to survive that kind of assault.
I’d rather see Newt stick it out until the convention, and then either hand over the delegates to someone other than Romney, OR push to take the nomination himself if the room can’t come to an agreement over the current two leaders.
Either way, it’s safer for the country because we have:
1) A better chance of getting someone other than Romney.
2) A still slim glimmer of a chance of getting Newt in a brokered convention.
I’m not going to help either Santorum or Romney get elected. One is a liberal and the other is hopeless. This country won’t survive either of them, just like we won’t survive with Obama... each is just a vote for a different flavor of doom. None is a solution.
That may sound harsh or defeatist, but it’s the truth. And truth can be hard.
This is NOT a normal election. The next few years are going to be anything but normal.
Eric plays all sides for Eric-don’t you know that.
Just listen to him over time.
I’m surprised Erickson would do this. He endorsed Newt and called for Perry to drop out and back Newt. He fought hard for Newt in that religious leaders meeting.
So monkey Eric has seen the light.
That the same poll that was wrong last week?
Personally, I am glad the Newt is staying in mainly because I think he is by far our best chance of having a real leader as president, but also I’m finding out more and more things about Santorum the longer this goes on. For instance I didn’t realize that Santorum was such a union man until recently. We absolutely do NOT need a president who is in the tank for unions.
To you, the Atlanta Journal Constitution, is who we that are to the right of Santorum and Romney, should follow, that FR should follow as experts on conservatism?
If Santorum is strong let him show it over Newt. No one should hand this to him. He must prove he won’t be knee-capped the second Newt exits.
The MSM, the GOP-e, the pundits — all those who are asking Newt to “get out” need to focus on Mitt’s lackluster (though vicious and burning through $100 Million) campaign and tout Rick, if they are so inclined.
If Newt is such a non-entity, why all the fuss?
I’ll tell you why. He’s the best candidate in the race. He’s the best man for the job and his supporters want him to stay in the fight. He WILL shake things up in D.C. and the Establishment can’t have that!
Santorum had better be careful what he wishes for. If Gingrich drops out Team Romney doubles-down on the slash and burn tactics because they will only have one obstacle left to the nomination. Rick does not have the organization, coordination nor money to withstand a re-energized Team Romney, a newly motivated GOP establishment and a fired up mainstream media one step closer to their dream date of Romney-Obama.
In a one-on-one Rick will take the bait and bite hard on a controversial social issue he should avoid and Romney and the media will shred him for it.
God bless Newt. His staying in and keeping Romney aiming at two targets is the single best hope conservatives have in preventing a Romney nomination before the convention.
Erik is conservative?
I've seen him on cnn and he is to the right of candy night-crawler, and maybe paul begala, but john king and the "snake" are as conservative as is erik the red.
Erik is as conservative as mittens, and just as trustworthy.
Romney has already doubled down on Santorum. He has no need to attack Newt now because Newt splits the conservative vote and allows Romney to take the most delegates.
Newts is basically done, and if Newt stays in, Santorum will soon be done.
Romney will get his delegates before the convention.
The only way Newt has a chance at their presidency or being part of the next administration is for him to drop out and campaign for Rick, and ideally have Rick announce him as V.P. Otherwise Romney is on track to win the nomination straight up by June with around 1,200 delegates. Most of the upcoming races are following winner-take-all rules in which case 2 conservatives will often split the vote and hand the liberal the win, identical to the Clinton/Bush/Perot race.
If Newt stays in, there won’t be a convention fight. Even if there is a convention fight, Newt or Rick can’t win it unless they team up and combine their delegates. So why should they not team up now when it can benefit them more? Newt should keep giving speeches and campaigning, just as Cain and Perry have done for him.
Rick has already been the focus of negative campaigning by Romney. He got publically drawn and quartered by Romney and Paul in the last debate. Are people seriously trying to argue that Romnney has been “holding back” on Santorum? Romney shill Drudge has been plastering his top news with negative Santorum stories for a while now and, like Romney’s other advertising, has been largely ignoring Newt, except in Southern states where Newt was competitive.
All we hear is “rah rah, go Newt” in favor of Newt staying in. What we don’t see is specific, detailed mathematical analysis of the delegates showing how Newt and Rick staying in leads Romney to be denied 1,144 delegates. Yet we have much analysis showing how Newt dropping out helps Romney lose more contests and delegates in a two-man race, due to the 800 out of 1200 delegates coming up from various winner-take-all contests.
If current polling holds with Newt behind Rick in every state, then he is going to keep functioning as a Ross Perot spoiler in 2/3rds of the upcoming contests. In AL and MI he already helped Romney get more delegates than he would have if Rick would have been able to get over 50% and trigger winner-take-all rules.
The polling showing how many Newt voters would go to Rick is meaningless. Number one, half the states have already voted, so what good is a national poll? Secondly, if Newt campaigns for Rick and is announced for V.P., that will sway many more Newt voters.
Exactly. As proven in Missouri, in conservative states, the vast majority of Newt voters would be going to Rick. In liberal states, they would go by a large margin to Romney. But, Newt's percentage of the vote and number of delegates is significant in conservative states and minimal in the more liberal ones.
Well Forest, time will tell which one of us is correct.
Yesterday morning, Romney was on FOX and Friends. He was asked about Newt staying in. He was just fine with it. Not one disparaging word.
Did you really expect him to say anything else?
No I didn’t, and it isn’t hard to figure out why. He had plenty to say about Santorum.
Okay. You run with that. You obviously have a very firm grip on it.
Face it. Why would you spend money on a person who is no longer a threat to you just by doing the math?
You wouldn’t. If Romney still felt Newt was a threat he would spend his big bucks to smear Newt like he did in Florida.