Skip to comments.Romney and Santorum would split vote if Gingrich exited race [What if Rick exited and Newt stayed?]
Posted on 03/17/2012 6:47:57 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
WASHINGTON -- Mitt Romney would stand to benefit just as much as Rick Santorum if Newt Gingrich exited the presidential race, according to a new poll released Friday.
The Gallup poll defied conventional wisdom by suggesting Romney would peel off just as many Gingrich supporters as Santorum would. Forty percent of Gingrich supporters in Gallup's daily tracking poll said Romney was their second choice while 39 percent said they would migrate to Santorum.
"If two candidates for a presidential nomination compete in the same ideological space, it would make sense that if one dropped out that the other would benefit," Gallup's Jeffrey Jones wrote in analysis accompanying the poll. "But that does not appear to be the case for the 2012 Republican nomination."
Jones added that for Santorum to overtake Romney, "it may not be as simple as picking up additional support from Gingrich voters should the former speaker of the House drop out." Rather, "Santorum would also likely need to cut into Romney's current base of support to gain ground on the frontrunner."
Rick Santorum has battled Gingrich through most of the primary cycle as the two contenders have tried to establish themselves as the chief alternative to Romney. However, since winning the South Carolina primary on Jan. 21, Gingrich has won just one other state -- his native Georgia.
Meanwhile, Rick Santorum has shown strength in several southern and midwestern states, having won Iowa, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Alabama, Mississippi, Colorado, Minnesota, Kansas, North Dakota and the non-binding Missouri primary, putting pressure on Gingrich to pack his bags and allow Santorum to go head-to-head with Romney.
While the former Pennsylvania has not explicitly called on Gingrich to exit the race, he has publicly admitted that he could benefit from his rival's departure.
But after the Mississippi and Alabama primaries, Gingrich argued his continued presence was damaging to Romney, forcing him to engage in a two-front war on the airwaves against his rivals.
Gingrich also dismissed suggestions that by staying in the race he was hurting Santorum, saying the former Pennsylvania senator had essentially gone one-on-one with Romney in Ohio and Michigan and lost.
Santorum and Romney are set to do battle in Illinois Tuesday, the next big contest to vote following the Missouri caucuses and Puerto Rican primary over the weekend.
The latest poll in Illinois by FOX Chicago News showed Romney leading Santorum 37 percent to 31 percent in the state. Gingrich had 14 percent while eight percent supported Texas Rep. Ron Paul.
LOL, choice is between almost dead last and last. Why not say the choice is between mitt and ron paul. LOL, a person with 40 negatives, ok. That leave you completly out of the rational section.
“The ultimate goal is to BEAT OBAMA!”
Well Mitt is no victory against Obama. Mitt is a sure fire loss. And how could a person who backs Newt and knows how bad Mitt is then support Mitt? This country is dead if they don’t get it by now. Gingrich is anti-Romney. Slick Mitt does NOT stand a better chance of beating Obama. He actually stands a worse chance than Rick Santorum.
Your post did not make any sense.
I’m hoping you know that.
Unless you consider the possibility that Santorum is running to bump Rubio out of Mitten's VP slot. Announced on the eve of the convention, it would quickly metamorph into a sweeping first-ballot victory for the ticket.
"Because theres one thing thats almost certain, if all 4 candidates stay in the race and the status quo continues, Romney wins by getting around 1,200 delegates by June."
Go back again to early Feb. and Santorum's cyclical apex:
A Tribune-Review/WPXI-TV poll conducted Feb. 2-6 shows .... Santorum's support more than doubled from 14 percent six weeks ago to 30 percent, putting him in a statistical dead heat with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who increased his support to 29 percent from 18 percent. Santorum's gain was former House Speaker Newt Gingrich's loss, as his numbers here plunged from 35 percent to 13 percent.
Santorum +16, Mittens +11, Newt -22. Ignoring the unequal math, that's roughly the 60/40 split other FReepers have conjectured would happen.
Reality check, Newt isn't winning states. He's vastly unpopular with the voters and is not endearing himself further with the promise of a chaos at the convention.
In the real world, the choice is Mitt or Rick, pick one or don't, that's your right.
Thanks for your thoughtful reply.
. . I have decided to focus on Senate races nationally and local races in my state instead. If we can take the Senate, we will be contributing to the checks and balances system that may be our only hope of tempering an out of control radical POTUS.
Agree 100% on all counts. Our country is in danger of becoming a third-world dictatorship. FR has always been the site that motivates us to fight back for freedom. Too much time spent on back and forth, we need to get to work.
Patronizing b-st-rd. Rickie is best suited for Mr. Roger’s replacement, how’z at?
I believe you’re right. It’s been noticable that in the heavy liberal bastions, Mitt comes in first and Rick second, with Newt way back with Paul. I contend that the more conservative you lean, the more likely you are to back Newt. If he drops out, I can picture a lot of his backers going to Romney just to ensure Obama is easily elected - better to make it absolutely clear that we need to do something big to take the Nation back and most don’t believe Rick will do the job where it will do the most good - might as well let Mitt fall to Obama and hunker down while the light bulbs turn on.
"Sheldon Adelson, the casino magnate who's been the main benefactor of the super PAC supporting Newt Gingrich, met with Mitt Romney in Nevada last week, shortly after he met with the former House Speaker, sources close to both candidates told POLITICO...And the Romney meeting came a day before a New York Times story, quoting sources familiar with Adelson's thinking, making clear that even if he gives more money to the super PAC Winning Our Future, it isn't intended as a slight against the frontrunner - who would be the beneficiary of even greater donations to the GOP side in the fall as the nominee."
Gallup released a poll yesterday that showed a close 50-50 split of Gingrich votes between the other two candidates.
That would put Romney in MAJORITY win in every states from here on out.
Most of the 8 winner-take-all states are not strictly winner-take-all unless a candidate wins a majority of the vote, and other modifications:
-New York, win the majority or it is proportional:
-Connecticut, same as New York
-Utah is winner-take-all and you don't need the majority. But Santo can forget this state even without Newt.
-Indiana, "Delegate Selection: Combined Selection [Winner-Take-All Primary for District Delegates with Caucus/Convention]"
-California is winner-take-all by Congressional district.
- Wisconsin, Winner-Take-All "by district and statewide"
Somehow, I just can’t see willfill little men like Boehner and McC pushing Saint Rick around.
He no longer lives in GA, couldn’t meet the residency requirement for governor, and the next race is not until 2014, when he would be, what, 72.
Mewton may have campaign funds that he must spend or lose them. He's up in IL trying to help Romney there too, not that Romney needs too much assistance in that liberal Land of Lincoln.
I can WELL understand how people get there.
People start with believing Newt Gingrich is BY FAR the best candidate and potential POTUS.
The alternatives don’t come close to Newt, in their conclusion, after thinking and researching and remembering and reasoning and praying...whatever process they use.
I can certainly understand the conclusion.
They are then asked, if not Newt Gingrich, who would you pick, Romney or Santorum?
You don’t move among them, but I’m here to say the reality is, there are people who have Santorum at the bottom of their list...way at the bottom. And they can tell you WHY.
Apparently they plan to vote and if FORCED, note, IF forced to choose, they think Romney is the least bad between the two.
I think Romney and Santorum are both terrible alternatives to Newt.
I’m not discussing their relative merits if this is only between the two of them. I would have to give Santorum the edge against Romney, but I’m here to say they are both disasters. So I will not discuss that even though I could if I chose to.
I’m staying on point that there are obviously people who think the WORST choice is Santorum, who strongly support Newt.
There are others who think Santorum is less bad than Romney, who strongly support Newt.
There is a SPLIT.
That is the entire point. Whatever you come up with, Mountain Mary, you don’t end up getting around that.
I don’t expect ever to influence you. You are an activist and you will double down and triple down on whomever you back at whatever time you back them.
So I write for those who lurk and read.
There, fixed it...
Former Democrats have moved into the Republican party and shifted it to the left. These are the so-called “moderate” Republicans, who support Mitt Romney. You should take your (Democrat) party back from the Socialists and nominate Mitt to challenge Obama as a Democrat.
Really? What is this based on? Inquiring minds want to know. :^D
There are not just 8 winner-take-all states. The vote-splitting between Rick and Newt wouldn’t be such a big issue if it were that few. 800 out of 1200 remaining delegates roughly come from winner-take-all territory. Please note the first 3, you directly elect the delegates, not the candidate, but the delegates win with a mere plurality so it’s the same as winner-take-all.
Illinois (direct delegate election by district)
Pennsylvania (direct delegate election by district)
West Virginia (direct delegate election by district)
California (WTA by district or a mix?)
New York (WTA by district or a mix?)
Texas (WTA by district or a mix?)
Connecticut (WTA by district or a mix?)
Maryland (WTA by district or a mix?)
Wisconsin (WTA by district or a mix?)
New Jersey (WTA by district or a mix?)
Puerto Rico (pure WTA statewide)
Washington D.C. (pure WTA statewide)
Delaware (pure WTA statewide)
Utah (pure WTA statewide)
Hate to tell you guys this but the views of the Republican electorate are not fully represented by the people that you interact with here on Free Republic. Some of them are pragmatists, not purists.
Nah, Romney has this in the bag. The only way we could have ever known how accurate this poll is would be if Newt left. And he won’t until Santorum is toast like he is.
The real problem for conservatives this time is that we didn’t field a good candidate that appeals to everyone. Newt isn’t acceptable to one side and Rick isn’t to the other half.
I think that the divide is permanent on both sides. Santorum voters would probably go half to Romney too.
Soooooo, that about tells the tale.
Romney will get this nomination. Brokered convention is a pipe dream.
Rick Santorum supported a MANDATE on ethanol! Newt only supported exploration..facts just kill vesty supporters
Santorum supported a taxpayer MANDATE on ethanol!
Would you like to talk about his
Environmental Solutions Agency? You know that taxpayer funded agency that will “help” private industry? LOL
How bout his continued support of “incentivizing” flex fuel vehicles and green energy?
How but defunding planned parenthood only to keep that taxpayer money and give it to someone else.
Santorum is calling on Speaker Gingrich to drop, so he can lock up the VP slot by using the first big WTA primary loss as cover to fold up his campaign. Santorum is just that type.
The fact that virtually everyone has said they would support Romney if he is the nominee, even Levin who said he would be in 100%, is in large part the reason the GOPe has no interest in either of the remaining candidates.
Truth is we will get Romney unless Newt at least withdraws from the states that are winner take all. But his Ego will not allow that, so we will likely get our candidate chosen for us once again, so I will write in Palin.
Let’s clarify the difference..Newt supported exploration..Santorum supported a fed tax MANDATE.
You should just vote for the original article then, Democratic.
Newt WANTS waste money exploring corn? LOL Not to mention his whole new federal agency ideas.
Guess its easy to be the smartest man in the room if the room is filled with idiots.
Don’t start that crap with me. I have seen some Newt supporters right here on FR say they would rather vote for Mitt than Santorum.
So fine, you go on ahead and do so.
I will vote for the nominee because there is nothing worse than Obama.
I get tired of the BS. Newt is done, Santorum is almost done, though he was my choice. I don’t plan to have hard feelings. It is just the way it worked out. FR has always gotten behind the one that cannot win. Nothing new.
Sooner or later reality sets in.
Nothing much any of us can do about it now. Even if Newt drops out, it will only allow Romney to win sooner, This poll is accurate. The volume of votes will increase for both candidates.
From a realistic standpoint, regardless that Romney is banned from this forum, according to all the polls, Romney has a chance to beat Obama, the Moderates and Indies, don't mind him because he is hitting all the right rhetoric in regards to the economy. Although we know him too well. If he does get the nomination, we have to learn how to hold his feet to the fire. Because we have no other choice.
Maybe we could install a Harkonnen Heart Plug in Romuloid, to make sure he can't double cross us!
For cripes sake, dforest is a great freeper. Always has been! Good Conservative also. I agree, Romney will likely win. Being realistic is not being a Romney supporter. It is simply what it is!
You will find no history in support of Mitt. There is a primary going on now. If you failed to notice, who is ahead?
I have said repeatedly I would vote for Rick or Newt, whoever was in the lead. I have surely done that. I prefer Rick, but if Newt was a threat to Romney, I would choose him.
Now, neither Newt or Rick has much of a chance left.
Look at the math. What is your problem? You can report me, but I have shown no support for Mitt.
You are the one that sounds like a lib. You don’t want to hear what I am saying, so you want to shut me up.
Even though we have butted heads lately. Psycho, I love ya.
We have most the time been on the same side.
We will get through this thing.
FWIW, I don’t think we have a perfect fusion candidate. Wish we did. I could name a few, but, they ain’t running.
Santorum tries to slither his way through the election without being fully vetted. He wont debate in Portland out of sheer fear some of his past votes, endorsements and more will be exposed.
Vesty never admits he was wrong...he passes the blame Obama style to Bush or the team..anybody but himself.
Here is Little Ricky on ethanol..”Inconsistencies
Though Santorum made few flip-flops during his congressional career, a notable exception was his shifting stance on federal ethanol subsidies. Prior to 9/11, I was not a big fan of ethanol subsidies but 2001 changed my mind on a lot of things, and one of them was trying to support domestic energy and this is part of it, Santorum told IowaPolitics.com January 27, 2011. My pledge to you is to work with this industry to create a bigger and bigger place in the market for domestically produced ethanol biodiesel.
You want to lie to each other fine, but please refrain from including me in your idiocy.
The truth hurts ya huh...facts are facts too bad Vesty cant admit to it
Yeah that makes alot of sense, Gallup only polled freepers.
The Santos vote is alot of I HATE Newt voters, thy are vindictive and will slither over to Romney for all the wrong reasons.