Skip to comments.Romney and Santorum would split vote if Gingrich exited race [What if Rick exited and Newt stayed?]
Posted on 03/17/2012 6:47:57 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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It must be nice to be so smart.
Which lends some credibility to Gallup, which took a huge sample to overcome the inherent polling difficulties associated with discerning differences within a homogenous population.
The caveat, however, comes with the Gingrich slug (less so with the inclusion of "Republican-leaning independents"). The slug is necessarily noted & noteworthy, but at the same time the internal sample suffers from the small population:
- For results based on the total sample of Republican registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
- For results based on the total sample of 290 Newt Gingrich supporters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±7 percentage points.
Not to mention being outspent 4,5,6,10 to 1 in some states and still remaining competitive.
If either one dropped out, was announced as the other’s V.P., and stayed on the campaign trail with them, then the other would almost certainly pick up the vast majority of their support. Does anyone disagree with it? That’s what they need to do. They should be locked in a room until they’re able to make a deal along those lines. Because there’s one thing that’s almost certain, if all 4 candidates stay in the race and the status quo continues, Romney wins by getting around 1,200 delegates by June. Unless of course, Romney is arrested for murder between now and then.
As of super Tuesday, Santorum had only spent half again when my congressman spent winning his seat in my district.
I like that kind of conservatism.
Romney would get the nomination easily. It is either Santorum or Romney. You can't as much as people would hope name a nominee that has only won two states. Just can't happen. Newt cannot win anywhere else in America. I am sorry for that, but those are the facts. If he could have won at least one state in each area then I think he could be the nominee, but since it is only his home state and the state next to it, how could he get enough electorals? I think SC and GA would give him 19 electorals and Obama would get about 520. That is not a good strategy.
- "The best thing Romney might have going for him right now is Gingrich's continued presence in the race. If Gingrich dropped out 58% of his supporters say they would move to Santorum, while 22% would go to Romney and 17% to Paul."
Which is why I think his best bet is to run for Governor of Georgia. That is where his strength is. He would make a fine Governor of Georgia. They love him there (at least 43 percent do) and that might be enough for him to make it. He just doesn't muster much interest beyond Georgia....South Carolina he could probably run for Governor if he moved there now and started campaigning. This is his best option now. Nothing else is feasible for him. People are not voting for him for President.
Newt is best for Governor of Georgia. He never should have jumped into the Presidency run without a state wide run. He is a horrible campaigner and planner. Skipping all those states was the dumbest thing I have seen in politics. He is better suited as Governor of Georgia. It would not be easy to win but he has a shot.
LOL, choice is between almost dead last and last. Why not say the choice is between mitt and ron paul. LOL, a person with 40 negatives, ok. That leave you completly out of the rational section.
“The ultimate goal is to BEAT OBAMA!”
Well Mitt is no victory against Obama. Mitt is a sure fire loss. And how could a person who backs Newt and knows how bad Mitt is then support Mitt? This country is dead if they don’t get it by now. Gingrich is anti-Romney. Slick Mitt does NOT stand a better chance of beating Obama. He actually stands a worse chance than Rick Santorum.
Your post did not make any sense.
I’m hoping you know that.
Unless you consider the possibility that Santorum is running to bump Rubio out of Mitten's VP slot. Announced on the eve of the convention, it would quickly metamorph into a sweeping first-ballot victory for the ticket.
"Because theres one thing thats almost certain, if all 4 candidates stay in the race and the status quo continues, Romney wins by getting around 1,200 delegates by June."
Go back again to early Feb. and Santorum's cyclical apex:
A Tribune-Review/WPXI-TV poll conducted Feb. 2-6 shows .... Santorum's support more than doubled from 14 percent six weeks ago to 30 percent, putting him in a statistical dead heat with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who increased his support to 29 percent from 18 percent. Santorum's gain was former House Speaker Newt Gingrich's loss, as his numbers here plunged from 35 percent to 13 percent.
Santorum +16, Mittens +11, Newt -22. Ignoring the unequal math, that's roughly the 60/40 split other FReepers have conjectured would happen.
Reality check, Newt isn't winning states. He's vastly unpopular with the voters and is not endearing himself further with the promise of a chaos at the convention.
In the real world, the choice is Mitt or Rick, pick one or don't, that's your right.
Thanks for your thoughtful reply.
. . I have decided to focus on Senate races nationally and local races in my state instead. If we can take the Senate, we will be contributing to the checks and balances system that may be our only hope of tempering an out of control radical POTUS.
Agree 100% on all counts. Our country is in danger of becoming a third-world dictatorship. FR has always been the site that motivates us to fight back for freedom. Too much time spent on back and forth, we need to get to work.