Skip to comments.Santorum might drop out rather than lose Pennsylvania primary (Losing would end political career)
Posted on 04/04/2012 10:44:07 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The possibility of a loss in his home state of Pennsylvania might force Rick Santorum to drop out of the Republican primary sooner than hed planned, say GOP strategists.
Santorum is notoriously strong-willed, and those close to him say that party elders will not be able to convince him to exit the race if he thinks he has a shot at the Republican nomination.
But one of Santorums close friends told The Hill that while the former Pennsylvania senator remains confident about winning his home state and using that to build May momentum, if that confidence falters, he might exit the race. Pennsylvania state Sen. Jake Corman (R), a longtime friend of Santorum and his family, said if it appeared Santorum wasnt going to win the state, the former senator could drop his campaign. Hes a realist; he doesnt have his head in the clouds, Corman told The Hill. As long as he sees a pathway to the nomination hes going to stay in it, but he wont stay in it to prove a point. If he gets to the point where he doesnt think hell be the nominee, hell get out.
Santorum is running second in the delegate count to rival Mitt Romney, and the party establishment is increasing pressure on the former senator to exit the race and clear a path for the former Massachusetts governor.
And while he led Romney by six points in a Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania voters out Tuesday, that was before Romneys win in Wisconsin on Tuesday night. Its also a decline for the former senator, who led Romney by double digits earlier this month.
Many Republican strategists argue that Santorum has resurrected his political career after a bad 2006 Senate loss with his surprisingly strong presidential campaign but that another loss in his home state could undo all that work, leading to predictions that if he thinks he could lose Pennsylvania, he might bow out.
If he loses Pennsylvania twice, thats going to really hobble him in the future. Thatd be very hard to live down, said Kirsten Fedewa, Mike Huckabees 2008 communications director.
Fedewa speculated that Santorum may be encountering what Huckabee faced near the end of his campaign.
Theres a point on the campaign trail where you start seeing diminishing returns, thinner crowds, youre not getting the big boost on your website fundraising, the enthusiasm factor is dying down, she said. Hes going to be feeling it on the stump and seeing the impact on his campaign. Hes an anti-establishment candidate, so what the establishment does or doesn't do isnt going to persuade him but when he sees the intensity factor waning, thats going to weigh heavily.
Santorum is campaigning hard in his home state. The last two primary nights hes held his post-election rallies in Pennsylvania. Hes scheduled to spend Wednesday campaigning there.
The former senator has insisted hell stay in the race through the April 24 primaries that include Pennsylvania as well as a number of states friendly to Romney: New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware, and fight on through May, when the map includes a number of states where Santorum could be in good shape.
But Romney is not going to cede Pennsylvania. His campaign sent full-time staffers to the state last week and he will stump there Wednesday. A super-PAC that backs him has made inquiries about the costs of television buys in the state and has indicated it will make a large buy there soon, according to local sources.
Romney also has the endorsement of four Pennsylvania lawmakers one more than Santorums three, according to The Hills tally.
On top of that, Santorums fundraising might have slowed to a trickle as his star has faded and if he continues his campaign, there could be severe backlash from establishment Republicans that might limit his future role in the party.
The biggest problem for Santorum is theres a three-week lull, no way to break the media narrative that Romney has this sewn up and a continued race will only hurt the nominee, Republican strategist Matt Mackowiak told The Hill on Monday. Santorums desperately trying to survive until May when does the pressure become too much?
PoliticsPA managing editor Keegan Gibson said many of the attacks Romney has leveled against Santorum have even more resonance in Pennsylvania: his endorsement of centrist former Republican Sen. Arlen Specter (Pa.) over now-Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) in their 2004 primary and his move from Pennsylvania to the Washington, D.C., suburbs with his family. Santorums going Washington was a major attack line from Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.) when he beat Santorum in 2006.
Another factor: Some of Toomeys Tea Party backers remain angry at Santorum for his 2004 endorsement of Specter. Toomey himself has not endorsed Santorum, but recently praised Romney as a conservative who will govern as a conservative.
At a recent conservative confab in the state, Santorum was received politely but not raucously, and failed to garner a majority of the conferences straw poll vote.
Former Rep. Phil English (R-Pa.), a Romney backer who managed Santorums first House race in 1990, called the results stunning.
Hes done nothing to repair the damage that was created in the lead-up to 2006, and a lot of it was self-inflicted, said English, who praised Santorum for his strong campaign but warned that if he continued to run the GOP establishment might blackball him in the future, which could severely limit his influence within the party.
I supported Rick Santorum every time he ran for office and was thrilled he did as well as he did
but Rick Santorum has already effectively lost the nomination, he said. The question becomes, does he have any role in the future of the party?
Got you P.F., you can’t reply to Romney’s lying record
so you make it personal. Don’t be angry.
God has revealed His plan, do not kill, if you vote for a pro-abort, it’s your soul. You cooperated with evil.
Newt was the only real alternative to Romney, and the Establishment knew that.
Now that Romney has the nomination all but locked up, you will see Santorum fade like Huckabee did.
Despite your apparent glee at getting Romney for the nominee, I think it may be premature. A poll just out says the people don’t want Rick or Newt to drop until Romney’s over the finish line.
Have to agree with your comment. It’s quite bewildering to read some of the ideas and comments from fellow conservatives. I’ve simply been at a loss of words to say how I feel about what I see happening. It’s really quite discouraging.
BUT, I will work very hard for the down ticket races. There is actual ‘hope’ here in WA state that we may see a change in the Gov race. Which would be a first in a very long time.
Not rational? Is the GOP rational? The country clubbers? No. Down with the TEA party at any cost is their thinking. Like, Santorum being offered VP?
Romney lost a bunch of primaries in 2008 and that didn’t stop him this time. Santorum losing PA can easily be waved away as people wanting a late primary to be over. And if Romney loses the general election, the entire mindset of the voters in this primary will be called into question and won’t hold any weight. Santorum has an incredibly favorable batch of states coming up in May and THAT’S what the GOP elites are afraid of. It might not be enough to stop Romney from getting the nomination, but he could have a long series of embarrassing losses.
Trying to inject this fear of losing his home state into Santorum to cause him to drop out is just the latest establishment talking point being used to push Romney on us. FOX News was pushing that meme hardcore last night as soon as the results were in.
By the way, if Romney is so inevitable, why doesn’t he stop spending money on advertising at all from now on? His inevitability should be enough to sweep him over the finish line, right? Is he wasting precious campaign funds that can be used against Obama merely to humiliate an opponent who is going to be beaten anyway? That doesn’t seem like it’s “for the good of the party.”
Santorum already got him on that in the debate. He said every Republican knows if you don't specifically rule out abortion coverage in a bill, the courts will say it is covered. And Romney left that provision out.
Anyone who doesn't think Romney is going to be pronouncing Roe vs. Wade "the settled law of the land" as soon as the convention is over is fooling themselves.
RE: Santorum was also for abortion a few years back and voted on legislation that supported it. (When he was a Representative)
Well what to say? Reagan was pro-choice too when he was governor. In fact, he signed California’s abortion bill. People do change. It is what they do AFTER they change their stance that counts for me.
Could just as easily say "maybe not", (or may not).
We already know the liberal mass media and Republocrat Establishment have an identical an agenda.
Let me run it past some of the FReepers who might be "dense" and have not gotten it yet.
A) The US MSM overwhelming wants Barack Obama re-elected.
B) As in 2008, they want to field the poorest GOP candidate, a moderate without a strong central core, to demoralize the Conservative Base, and they want no conservative voice at the GOP convention, either in nominee, rules/planks/platform/messaging.
C) They want to create a narrative, such as "this one has the GOP nomination", or "that one might drop out", when in fact much of it is speculation and as we know, many more Americans are yet to vote to have their say, Mitt Romney does not have the nomination at this time, there are still three other active candidates on the field who can also continue to gain delegates.
D)The US MSM narrative now is the Mitt Romney will be the nominee. At the appropriate time, they will bring out the messaging on him which will cause his defeat at the hands of Barack Obama.
In all due respect, really, to engage in this discussion here on Vice Presidential candidates is an insult to the Presidential candidates still campaigning, raising money, receiving delegates (such as Santorum did in Wisconsin), etc. So I just say we shelve it for the time being. Not taking that bait anyways (and that is outside of my own opinion of Paul Ryan dropping dramatically).
Mark Levin’s fist hour today on Romney’s election tactics was memorable.
-—57% of the delegates, but only 41% of the GOP primary vote
-—GOP primary vote depressed
-—Carpet bombing tactics
-—Early “red” state primaries had proportional delegates while “blue” states have winner take all.
Judge not that you be not judged.
I’m not a fan of Romney’s religion but I don’t think it disqualifies him.
He will be better than Obama.
And you presume way too much about what God will or won’t do.
So what? You have a problem with 'non-Christians'? Think, maybe, that they ought not to be in politics?
You brought this up as a negative, so defend it.
Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience. They may be more likely to go to Heaven yet at the same time likelier to make a Hell of earth. This very kindness stings with intolerable insult. To be "cured" against one's will and cured of states which we may not regard as disease is to be put on a level of those who have not yet reached the age of reason or those who never will; to be classed with infants, imbeciles, and domestic animals.
- C.S. Lewis
>> Unfortunately, momentum is no longer our friend.
The gloss wore off. Newt should have remained the choice.
I honestly think if Rick would start talking more about how he manages his money vs. Mitt, it could make a big difference. It’s going to be business as usual with Mitt because he doesn’t respect other people’s money. But Rick does respect the dollar and I think he could make a difference.
Also, Rick needs to talk about his plans for jobs and getting us out of debt. Needs to use his public forums more to get his word out.
Your C.S. Lewis quote, he was a little prejudiced, growing
up in Belfast. I think he was Catholic in his heart.
You have to help others realize you can’t support pro-
aborts. It’s a sin on your soul and must be confessed. Obama, a Herod is the maximum pro-abort, Romney, less murderous but he legislated abortion in Massachusetts.
No one has seen a change, an action on his part to believe Mitt is for life now.
Next to the Blessed Sacrament itself, your neighbor is a holiest object presented to your senses.
Mitt Romney’s taken the lead in PPP’s newest poll of Rick Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania. Romney has 42% to 37% for Santorum with Ron Paul at 9% and Newt Gingrich at 6%. The numbers represent a dramatic turnaround from when PPP polled the state a month ago. Romney’s gained 17 points, going from 25% to 42%. Meanwhile Santorum’s dropped 6 points from 43% to 37%, for an overall swing of 23 points in the last four weeks.
Ricky’s “political career” ended years ago when he was defeated by 18 points when running for re-election to the Senate. .....The guy is a motor-mouth and doesn’t understand when he should just stop talking when on the stump. ....He may have some good ideas, but he then keeps blabbing and gets away from them to talk about his personal social values.
The man is a complete fool. He should have never been in this race to begin with, much less stayed in it this long.
Santorum isn’t quitting, the media is against him and the
constant negative ads Romney puts out costing millions.
I admire his courage.
by Robert McCain
Rick Santorum defiantly resists Mitt Romney’s “inevitability.”
...”Romney’s super PAC has spent nearly $30 million on advertising, 91 percent of it on negative ads aimed at either Gingrich or Santorum. By some estimates, the Romney campaign is spending at a rate of more than $15 per vote, compared to less than $6 per vote for Santorum.
None of that was mentioned Tuesday night in the post-primary discussion on Fox News, which predictably cut off Rick Santorum’s speech halfway through, and then predictably began discussing the campaign in terms of when Santorum would drop out and how Republicans could “coalesce” behind Romney who, the commentators declared, is now definitely the inevitable nominee. Karl Rove, Charles Krauthammer, Mary Katharine Ham, Stephen Hayes — every voice on Fox News was singing the same predictable tune from the hymnal of inevitability. Santorum’s supporters have been complaining for weeks about the transparent pro-Romney bias at Fox, and it was perhaps not entirely a coincidence that conservative columnist Michelle Malkin — a Fox News contributor who endorsed Santorum in January — chose Tuesday to link election coverage from MSNBC and CBS at her popular blog. The bandwagon psychology of the front-runner’s argument, which has been gathering force ever since Romney’s Jan. 31 victory in Florida, has nearly overwhelmed all rational resistance. Anyone who continues arguing against Romney’s inevitability is increasingly viewed as a spoilsport, if not indeed a madman.”...
Anything that aggravates Romney and keeps him from rushing to the center is good. Some losers on Free Republic don't seem to get it.
There is no ‘glee’ at Romney getting the nomination, I was going for Newt.
We shall see soon who is living in fairy land, I will stand by my prediction barring some unforeseen disaster in the current administration.
Rick will NOT be offered VP. It’s going to be Rubio.
That can be said of the entire 2012 GOP POTUS field of contenders this election. We have too choose from a Massachusetts Elitist Liberal, A Pennsylvania moderate, a Georgia camera attention crazed egomaniac, and a whack from Texas who is only right about the economy.