Skip to comments.Fuel Index Has Bad News for Economy
Posted on 04/05/2012 8:12:18 AM PDT by Kaslin
The UCLA Ceridian Pulse of Commerce Index based on real-time truck fuel usage rose slightly in March.
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation rose 0.3 percent in March following the 0.7 percent increase in February and the 1.7 percent decrease in January. The first quarter PCI is below the fourth quarter of last year by 4.9 percent at an annualized rate. Sampling of Graphs From the Report
Personal Savings Rate
Encouraged by the Fed, Consumers are once again spending too much.
The picture is not sustainable. The US economy will not disconnect from the rest of the world regardless of what most mainstream media reports.
In what should have been expected, but somehow wasn't, Eurozone weakness is across the board except for Ireland bucking the trend for now.
Markit says Eurozone Composite PMI® Signals New Recession in Eurozone
Key Points for March
Latest PMI data provided further evidence of a mild contraction of the Eurozone private sector economy during March. The latest decline also meant that output fell over the first quarter as a whole, raising the likelihood that the economy has fallen back into technical recession.
Composite PMI Output Index by Nation
High oil prices led to a further marked increase in average input costs in March, with the impact felt at both manufacturers and service providers. Input cost inflation was the fastest for nine months, but remained below the near-record high reached one year ago. Input price inflation accelerated in Germany, Spain and Ireland, but eased in France and Italy. Italy nonetheless still saw the steepest overall increase.
Inflows of new orders fell for the eighth month running, dropping at the fastest pace so far this year. New business fell across the big-four nations, with particularly steep falls seen in Spain and Italy.
Weak demand also held down output prices, with March data signalling little change over the month.
Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said:
A slight easing in the rate of decline of the Eurozone service sector was insufficient to offset the first decline in manufacturing output for three months, causing the overall economy to contract again in March.
With the exception of a marginal expansion seen in January, the economy has been in continual decline since last September. Although the average rate of decline seen over the first quarter eased compared with the final three months of last year, the survey data nevertheless indicate that the region has slipped back into a technical recession.
The downturn is currently only very mild, however, with gross domestic product probably falling by just 0.2% in the first quarter. Furthermore, with business confidence in the service sector running at a far higher level than late last year, the recession may also be brief.
I have been critical of Market analysis for months and this is the worst yet.
First they said Germany would prevent a recession, then Germany would decouple, now they suggest this is only a "technical" recession and the "the recession may be mild and brief".
The European recession will be neither mild nor brief. Spain, Portugal, and Greece are in economic depressions with no end in sight. Spain and Italy (the 3rd and 4th largest eurozone markets) are poised for steeper slides. Germany will not be immune to this as I have stated for months on end.
German manufacturing contracted in March and services sector will soon follow. For some reason, Market economists cannot figure this out.
Four dollar gas is killing off the anemic faux-recovery.
Layoffs will be rising by summer. Obummer is in for a very rough ride to the fall.
An observation from here in California..., more and more I see people lined up at the station window handing over $20 bills... but no more. Yesterday I found myself doing the same. Not that I can’t afford to fill the tank but it is like a decision I am making to LIMIT my usage. What struck me even more was that while pumping the guy in front of me did the $20 pump but his girlfriend inside (watching guage) hands out the window another $5 and says “get 5 more”. This is getting to become a major hardship and I see no way out for most Americans. I wonder each day how the service people can stay in business? From the gardener to the plumber driving from place to place. This will get brutal come summer.
By the way is there any better place to engage your fellow American about the sour economy and gas prices while at the pump.... a simple look at people at the gas station says it all and a line like “is this the change we really wanted in this country”.....
I’ve encountered a few ‘watermelon’ greenies who say ‘You have to break a few eggs to make an omlett. Just look at the increased sales of more fuel efficient vehicles!’
Consumer spending [due to fuel costs] is up,
that’s a sign of economic recovery!
Is it a sin to pray that the people who advocate for such policies feel the consequences the worst?
A warning to you, Mr.B. My 90 yo German mother says be careful whom you hate, you surely will become just like them.
I grew up trying to figure out how Nazi Germany came to exist, now I know how easy it was. People’s emotions are easily manipulated, especially when they have a targetted enemy. I plan on beating the system by outsmarting the dumb masses.
And they will be the first to complain when their Hispanic gardener doubles his rate because he can’t afford the new Prius pick-up...:^)
I looked it up,
David, a man after God’s own heart,
prayed multiple times that his enemies would fall into the traps they laid for him.
David’s greatest enemy was himself, and we know about the self imposed traps he fell into. The results included family strife, civil war with the loss of his son Absolom who had risen against him, pestilence upon the land when David called for a census of the people, and the most heart breaking of all, God’s refusal to let David build his temple because he was “a bloody man” before him.
I suspect many Christians have a personal “temple God won’t let them build” or “promised land they are not allowed to enter into”...at least in this life. It doesn’t mean they aren’t loved and forgiven by God, yet sometimes the ultimate goal of God is to destroy the pride in our Hearts...and such pride often lies behind the “desire” to build such “temples” for God!
For reasons too personal to explore here, thank you.
I get only the most vaguest of hints as to what is being done by my "auto gnome"s to meet the insane requirements. We left common sense engineering in the tail-lights back around 1994, we have been in it is not worth the effort territory since then IMHO..They ( cars and trucks ) are so complicated, forget about working on them, and... The prices will not rise not $1700 but more like $7,000 to $9,000 to meet "The Anointed One's" mandates.
What you said is closer to the bone than you know...
Regular unleaded is already well over $4 at stations in sparsely populated areas on the Rockies. Should be really interesting this summer.
In the summer of 2008 my son and I took a motorcycle trip on July 4 right through the heart of the Ozarks and the Missouri lake country. It was unbelievably depressing. Hardly a thing was going on. Stores were empty, campgrounds empty, just a few die hards on the lakes, roads empty. I-44 had mostly just necessary truck traffic on it.
Fuel stocks are going up, consumption is way down. The pattern will break. I hope it holds until the election though. We are in for a deepening recession regardless now and we never got out of the last one.
Watch for the drilling bright spot to end as well though. Gas isn’t profitable at below $2.00 a thousand cubic feet.
That may be, but the MSM spin machine is helping him lie his skinny butt off about the causes--and what he has done to screw up chances of recovery.
If I had to listen to more than a few seconds of his lies, I'd break my TV.