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Santorumís campaign releases their delegate count: Romney 571, Santorum 342
The Right Scoop ^ | April 5th, 2012 | The Right Scoop

Posted on 04/06/2012 7:41:42 AM PDT by Qbert

This is interesting. There’s a lot of issues as to how this will be handled at the convention by the RNC as they explain below, but their numbers certainly look better than the media’s counts. I’m sure they will be analyzed quite at bit in the coming days:

The Media’s Delegate Math is Wrong

There are a couple of fundamental flaws with the delegate counts that the media keeps that reveals that this race is much closer than they report:

1)      Florida, Arizona, and quite possibly Puerto Rico will be proportional rather than Winner Take All.  They broke RNC rules by going winner take all before the window and therefore RNC Members and/or the convention will enforce the rules and make the delegations proportional.  This will reduce Romney’s delegate total substantially and increase the other three candidates’ respective delegate totals.

2)      National Convention Delegates are elected at County, District, and State conventions rather than by the initial beauty contests in many states.  For example, in Washington State Romney was allocated 25 delegates, Paul 8 delegates, Santorum 7 delegates, and Gingrich 0 delegates.  The Santorum and Paul campaigns are working together in Washington State and the result will be more delegates for Santorum and Paul and a dramatic decrease in delegates for Romney.  Santorum will also over perform in most other states that use this process and Romney will underperform.

3)      Unbound delegates – The media continues to put unbound delegates in their counts in the territories and other states.  These folks can change their mind, or have yet to make up their mind, and should not be counted as if they are bound.

 

The REAL Count

Our current internal count that takes into account ongoing county, district, and state conventions is as follows:

Romney – 571

Santorum – 342

Newt – 158

Paul – 91

 

Texas is Going Winner Take All

The state of Texas is in the process of announcing that they are going to go Winner Take All rather than proportional.  This will have a dramatic impact on the delegate projections, tighten the race after Santorum wins Texas, and significantly hinder Romney’s capacity to ever get 1144 delegates because he will not get his proportion of the state.  Simply put, this is a Game Changer.  The race is almost even if you account for a Rick Santorum win in Texas under a Winner Take All system, and there is a clear Conservative Majority with Newt Gingrich.

 

The Calendar Moves to May

The month of April was always going to be difficult but the calendar gets much more friendly for Rick Santorum in May.  North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia, Nebraska, Oregon, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Texas might lead to Santorum winning roughly 7 out of 8 states in May, and heading into the June 5th primaries with a freight train of momentum.

 

Conservative Majority with Newt Gingrich

The campaign continues to reach out to Newt Gingrich’s team to work together on County, State, and District conventions to prevent Romney from achieving 1144 and to elect a Conservative Majority of delegates.



TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: delegates; gingrich; romney; santorum
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1 posted on 04/06/2012 7:41:51 AM PDT by Qbert
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To: Qbert

Countdown to attacks on Santorum by those who supposedly want Romney to lose in 3-2-1...


2 posted on 04/06/2012 7:47:58 AM PDT by icwhatudo (Tax codes and spending don't get 14 year olds pregnant and on welfare. Morality Matters.)
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To: icwhatudo

LOL

Mark Levin was questioning the pro Romney delegate math a few days back.


3 posted on 04/06/2012 7:51:20 AM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: Qbert

So my Texas might yet still have an impact on this election?! Cool!


4 posted on 04/06/2012 7:54:00 AM PDT by al_c (http://www.blowoutcongress.com)
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To: Antoninus; Lazlo in PA

PING!


5 posted on 04/06/2012 7:54:52 AM PDT by Timber Rattler (Just say NO! to RINOS and the GOP-E)
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To: icwhatudo

It’s a shame to see so many conservatives give up at this point and say, “Oh well, at least we tried!”.


6 posted on 04/06/2012 7:55:45 AM PDT by llmc1
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To: cripplecreek; icwhatudo
Even here on FR, not just at FOX and MSNBC, you'll hear Mit described as a "winner" in states where he was barely 1 or 2 percent ahead of the second, third and even fourth place candidate.

In primaries you do not win a state just by getting the most votes.

Our Conservative candidates have proved conclusively that Conservative candidates get Conservative voters ~ and they are in the majority.

The "other kind" of voters are going for Mit and they are in a distinct minority, and do not represent the party base.

In the Virginia primary where there was NO Conservative candidate we had the smallest turnout since they began having primaries here.

7 posted on 04/06/2012 7:58:45 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Qbert
It's all in how you perform the calculation.

And the people in charge of choosng the calculation method are the people who want Mitt. We are essentially stealing the election from ourselves so that Obama can beat us.

8 posted on 04/06/2012 7:59:46 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (Like Emmett Till, Trayvon Martin has become simply a stick with which to beat Whites.)
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To: icwhatudo

Santorum could have separated himself from the liberals by standing up for Augusta National’s right to have whatever gender members it wants.


9 posted on 04/06/2012 8:04:19 AM PDT by greatvikingone
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To: Qbert

The three points the writer brings up are all speculation.

For Florida/Arizona, the punishment of less delegates has already been enforced. The rule was if you were WTA, you couldnt schedule before a certain date. But the punishment for breaking the rule is to lose delegates, not to force the states into proportional delegates.

For Washington, if Santorum and Paul work together, it may raise Santorum’s numbers, but wont really affect Romney’s (on a side note, where are the Santorum people complaining about trying to change delegates they way everyone was complaining about Paul in Mn/Mo/Me)

For the unbound, what makes the writer think a majority will go to Santorum? They might, but it is all speculation on that. The same way as counting Ia, Mn, Mo delegates was speculation early on.


10 posted on 04/06/2012 8:04:59 AM PDT by Raider Sam (They're on our left, right, front, and back. They aint gettin away this time!)
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To: ClearCase_guy

11 posted on 04/06/2012 8:06:04 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: Qbert

I think the establishment lives in fear that the Santorum candidacy may get a gasp of air in PA and come roaring back in May. Once again I heard in Wisconsin voters saying that they preferred Santorum, but were voting Romney because they were buying the establishment’s argument that this had to end to beat Obama. I remember hearing the strategic voting argument from some voters in FL earlier. Then this thing got away from the establishment when Santorum pulled the hat trick in the midwest, and voters had a momentary inkling that a more conservative candidate was just as viable against Obama. That’s why they need Santorum to quit on his own. This is to unstable and dangerous. I had a Romney supporter call for a donation yesterday and ask for $400 out of the box. Wow, Mitt thinks I make $10k bets.


12 posted on 04/06/2012 8:09:40 AM PDT by throwback (The object of opening the mind, is as of opening the mouth, is to shut it again on something solid.)
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To: muawiyah

Romney shows little concern for conservatives as he grabs delegates in the most liberal areas of the country. Detroit, Chicago, Cincinnati etc. He’s doing exactly what I said when he won the straw poll in Michigan, just stepping over the people on the way to HIS goal and to hell with what we little people want.

Last week I was looking at a county by county map that showed that Santorum had won nearly 1000 flyover country counties and Romney had won in less than 500 primarily urban counties.


13 posted on 04/06/2012 8:10:50 AM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: Raider Sam
The three points the writer brings up are all speculation.

The whole thing is just wishful thinking. In addition to the points you make, the article claims Texas is going "winner take all". Texas is almost certainly NOT going "winner take all". The Santorum campaign is pushing for such a change, but the odds of that actually happening are next to none and none.

14 posted on 04/06/2012 8:14:25 AM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: al_c
"So my Texas might yet still have an impact on this election?! Cool!"

Imagine that- a big red state actually having a say in the GOP nominating process...

15 posted on 04/06/2012 8:18:33 AM PDT by Qbert ("The best defense against usurpatory government is an assertive citizenry" - William F. Buckley, Jr.)
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To: Raider Sam
Was there not some rule that if you did go before a certain date your delegates had to be proportional, though? I'm sure it makes no difference because these rules are what the insiders decide they are at any given moment, so pretending there are rules in this game is just that, pretending. It's like the MI split of the last 2 delegates that suddenly both went to Romney, or his win in IA.

I know I heard Rove say those states were not proportional. It's stupid to get worked up about this anyway. Only a fool goes to the casino thinking he has just as much chance to win as the house.

This campaign has been an eye opener, though. I now see FOX as just another propaganda machine. They complain about the left wing media distorting and taking things out of context, and they do exactly the same thing.

16 posted on 04/06/2012 8:23:13 AM PDT by throwback (The object of opening the mind, is as of opening the mouth, is to shut it again on something solid.)
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To: Qbert
I have always had HOPE and this affirms it!!!!!

I'm in Texas visiting now....IT'S A GREAT STATE!!!....and Lord Willing, Texas will put Santorum over the top

PRESS ON SANTORUM!

17 posted on 04/06/2012 8:26:26 AM PDT by Guenevere (....Whom God calls,... He equips......Press On Santorum!)
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To: Qbert
Texas is Going Winner Take All

No it's not. They need approval from the RNC to do so, and the RNC has already said they won't issue a waiver.

18 posted on 04/06/2012 8:28:06 AM PDT by Hugin ("Most time a man'll tell you his bad intentions if you listen and let yourself hear"--Open Range)
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To: greatvikingone

"Santorum could have separated himself from the liberals by standing up for Augusta National’s right to have whatever gender members it wants."

Normally I would agree on that- but I think the time is now to put Obama on the defensive. We shouldn't just react to every Obama-generated faux controversy- every minute that we are responding to his newest lame argument is a minute that we are not attacking him on his abysmal record. (He wants it this way, of course, to distract people).

19 posted on 04/06/2012 8:32:07 AM PDT by Qbert ("The best defense against usurpatory government is an assertive citizenry" - William F. Buckley, Jr.)
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To: throwback
I'm sure it makes no difference because these rules are what the insiders decide they are at any given moment, so pretending there are rules in this game is just that, pretending. It's like the MI split of the last 2 delegates that suddenly both went to Romney, or his win in IA.

I'm being told by some morons that the after the vote rule change in Michigan is just a desperate pro Santorum conspiracy theory. Apparently one of Romney's own supporters believes the "conspiracy theory" himself.

The Michigan Republican Party (MRP) Credentials Committee voted 4-2 last night to give Mitt Romney both of the state's at-large delegates, State Policy Committee Chair Mike Cox told MIRS today.

Cox was one of two "no" votes on the committee which met via telephone, along with attorney Eric Doster The "yes" votes included GOP National Committeeman Saul Anuzis, a Romney supporter, and MRP Chair Bobby Schostak.

That would put the delegate split at 16 for Romney and 14 for Rick Santorum, after each candidate won 14 delegates apiece in those divided by Michigan's 14 congressional districts.

As MIRS first reported on Wednesday, the MRP was delaying a final decision on the delegate split until after consulting with attorneys.

Cox said that according to the MRP rules, Santorum and Romney should each get one of Michigan's two at-large delegates based on their take of the popular vote.

"I supported Mitt, but the vote was clearly wrong," Cox said of the Credentials Committee. "It's kind of like Third World voting. We published rules and then we voted to change the rules."


Because The Narrative Cannot Survive A Rewrite

Sorry kids, but the GOP is behaving like the Obama administration and will lose because of it.
20 posted on 04/06/2012 8:38:32 AM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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