Posted on 04/13/2012 3:20:25 AM PDT by dirtboy
Edited on 04/14/2012 10:35:01 AM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
The Storm Prediction Center has predicted a slight chance of severe weather for parts of Texas and Oklahoma this entire week, thus it should come as no surprise that the weekend holds the best chance of dangerous severe weather.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued an upgraded, high chance of severe weather from central Oklahoma through eastern Kansas (see image below). In addition, there is a moderate risk of severe weather from western Texas through southern Iowa, and a slight risk in the greater area from central Texas through southern Wisconsin.
I cannot stress the severity of this situation enough. Residents living in these regions should prepare for severe weather on Saturday.
Stay safe. You have a basement, right? Sounds like a good day to make a very comfortable man cave.
So now I have A Whole Lot More family in the high risk area. This could be a very bad day. That High Risk area is massive.
Which means they are seeing worsening conditions. Everyone in the area of the high and moderate risk should pay VERY close attention before venturing out this afternoon and evening and review their plans as to what to do at home in case of a tornado warning.
The NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman had a close brush with a tornado yesterday:
http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/tornado-norman-oklahoma_2012-04-14
They certainly had a good view. I was watching several storm spotters near OKC yesterday during that time. I thought I heard one saying that for today the NWS has activated a back-up location at an Air Force Base in ND(?). That’s pretty telling.
I usually gauge how severe the weather will be based on the number of storm spotters on WeatherTAP. Yesterday it looked like they were re-inacting a cattle drive using storm spotters.
Bears repeating.
The percentages in the map indicate the forecast chance of a tornado hitting within 25 miles. The hatched areas are forecasts for stronger tornadoes - EF2 to EF5.
Atmosphere is juicing up:
Significant Tornado Potential (STP) already high, will probably reach near-peak levels later in the day (it's only 10 AM now and the elements are still converging for this event:
Great info. Thanks.
Already severe storm warnings in Kansas and Nebraska.
Predictive weather software is fascinating. At times when I’ve compared prediction v. actual, it’s been amazingly accurate. Such sophisticated algorithms...as a former programmer it would be a blast to work on. And, we’re learning so much more as time goes by. What an great time in which to live. I may only be able to sit back and appreciate the advances being made, but I still get excited for the geeks who get to do it.
The scary thing about that STP animation is that at one point the high levels extend from the Rio Grande to northern Nebraska.
Whoa. I’m I seeing it correctly, that there’s already areas reporting 2.5” hail (near Arcadia, KS)? Before 11AM? Eek.
Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch 165
NWS is going to be busy today.
A PDS already...it’s getting ugly early.
Perhaps the only good thing about this PDS is that much of the area is flat and sparsely populated.
The PDS watches for the larger cities in the area - OKC, Tulsa, Wichita, Topeka, KC, Lincoln, Omaha - will come later. The jet stream is going to be racing right over the high risk area at over 100 mph. Throw in strong surface-level winds at a 45 degree angle to the jet and you have the ingredients to incorporate rotation.
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