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Seven Ways 2012 Won’t Be Anything Like 2008 For Team Obama
The New Republic ^ | April 13, 2012 | 12:00 am | William Galston

Posted on 04/13/2012 9:45:20 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach

With the general election now underway, it’s tempting to assume that President Obama has a built-in advantage by having at his disposal a campaign operation that earned universal plaudits in 2008. But as Team Obama itself already knows—or, if not, will soon come to realize—the 2012 contest will be very different from the president’s triumphant march to the White House four years ago. The key question will be how the old campaign staff responds to the new electoral landscape. Here are seven realities that Team Obama will have to adjust to.

2012 will be a referendum, not a choice. One of the best established findings of contemporary political science is that in presidential contests involving an incumbent, the incumbent’s record is central to the public’s judgment. A race for an open Oval Office is about promises and personalities; a campaign for reelection is about the record and performance of the person currently occupying the White House. To be sure, Obama can offer his vision for the future and new proposals to flesh it out. But if the people don’t approve of his record, that won’t matter much.

No more promises of bipartisanship. Obama will have to abandon—or at least radically modify—the promise to heal a polarized political system that was at the heart of his rise to national prominence, starting with his dramatic address at the 2004 Democratic convention. And because his inability to foster this reconciliation has disappointed many people who voted for him in 2008, he’ll have to explain why he couldn’t do it in a way that redirects that disappointment toward the Republican Party and its nominee.

No more “Yes, we can.”

(Excerpt) Read more at tnr.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: election2012; obama; obama2012; onetermobama
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1 posted on 04/13/2012 9:45:33 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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H/T to Hot Air.


2 posted on 04/13/2012 9:47:02 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The Global Warming HOAX is about Global Governance)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Anybody on the fence who can’t decide between the two is brain dead...pull the plug!


3 posted on 04/13/2012 9:47:51 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Mitt Romney = John McCain, so in a large sense, it IS 2008 all over again. Romney is going to get creamed. There will just be no motivation to get out and vote and make a choice between Obongo and Obongo Lite.


4 posted on 04/13/2012 9:48:36 AM PDT by AmericanInTokyo (Oh, well. SEE YOU IN THE CAMPS. (Hope your forearm tatoo doesnt hurt too much)....)
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To: AngelesCrestHighway
...can’t decide between the two...

I find little difference between Obama and Romney.

5 posted on 04/13/2012 9:49:44 AM PDT by GingisK
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To: GingisK

Ones muslim and ones mormon?


6 posted on 04/13/2012 9:55:36 AM PDT by goseminoles
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To: GingisK
" . . . . little difference"

Except that there will be a very strong "anyboby but Zero" sentiment for all but the hoodies and fellow travelers.

I'm still not convinced that Stevie is going to be there in November. November is a long way off and this guy is formenting race war - actively - from the White House. Let us all just ponder that for a moment.

7 posted on 04/13/2012 9:55:47 AM PDT by atc23 (The Confederacy was the single greatest conservative resistance to federal authority ever.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Actually, it will be much easer.

With McCain, whom I detest for his dalliances with the left, at least he was running against a marginal Republic.

That's not the case with the lying, left-wing, Progressive Liberal Mitt Romney.

With Mitt's left-wing record, most issues are off the table in debates and in campaigning because Mitt has a thoroughly left-wing record that Obama can use to rebut Romney's lying words about his conservatism.

On the following issues, Mitt was on the same side as Obama as Governor of MA and at other times:

1. Global Warming
2. Judicial Appointments
3. Abortion
4. Taxes
5. 2nd Amendment
6. ObamaCare
7. Illegal Immigration


There is not much left to debate or differentiate between the two.

Obama and the Media will be able to use Romney's record to absolutely destroy his candidacy and if God frowns on us and punishes us by giving us Romney as the candidate, his poll numbers, by the time the election rolls around, will be in the toilet.
8 posted on 04/13/2012 9:55:56 AM PDT by SoConPubbie
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Obama wouldn’t have won last time around, if McCain hadn’t put a muzzle on Sarah and handed Obama the election on a silver platter.

And the fact is, Mitt Romney is a hundred times WORSE than Juan McCain.

Once again, the GOP wants to give the White House away. It doesn’t matter how much Obama screws up, he can’t lose against Romney.


9 posted on 04/13/2012 9:56:05 AM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: AmericanInTokyo

Race riots, lynch mobs and rampaging hippies in the streets.

Those are your motivations to go and pull the lever for Romney.

It will actually play to his benefit to be the Whitest Man who ever ran for POTUS at that point.


10 posted on 04/13/2012 9:57:27 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: AngelesCrestHighway
Anybody on the fence who can’t decide between the two is brain dead...pull the plug!


11 posted on 04/13/2012 9:58:05 AM PDT by SoConPubbie
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To: AmericanInTokyo
Romney is going to get creamed

Do you really think Romney will do worse than McLame?

With $4 gas, 16% real unemployment, recurring $1.5 trillion deficits, and serious inflation in everyday items?

12 posted on 04/13/2012 9:59:14 AM PDT by nascarnation
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

btw, amazingly frank and honest assessment for a lefty rag like TNR


13 posted on 04/13/2012 10:01:02 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Come on. Does anybody really think that if Romney had been in the white house that last three years that we would be in the same mess we are now? There is no difference between Obama and Romney, NONE AT ALL? Some people are just getting way too carried away with the “I’m not voting for Romney, WAAA” stuff.


14 posted on 04/13/2012 10:02:34 AM PDT by 12chachacha
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To: 12chachacha

God help us, there really are Conservatives that believe that.


15 posted on 04/13/2012 10:07:13 AM PDT by Maverick68
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To: AmericanInTokyo
Mitt Romney = John McCain, so in a large sense, it IS 2008 all over again.

One huge difference, AIT. Obozo actually has a record to run on this time.

As poor as a contrast which Romney might offer, I can't see him nominating a racist extremist like Sotomayer to the supreme court, throwing Israel or any of our other allies under the bus, kissing a** with our sworn enemies, setting up gulags for conservatives or p*ssing away billions of dollars in Solyndra like green energy schemes to enrich his donors.

Like Ahrnold in California, he may be a RINO, but at least one with the sense to realize that a healthy private sector is necessary to generate the taxes to grown the nanny state efficiently.

16 posted on 04/13/2012 10:11:11 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: 12chachacha

Although 4 more years of The WOn is evidently palatable to some, it is not to me.

You can try to convince me that I am wrong, but I do not for a second believe that Mitt Romney hates America.


17 posted on 04/13/2012 10:11:49 AM PDT by SusaninOhio
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To: GingisK

Really?...I feel sorry for you


18 posted on 04/13/2012 10:12:01 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: GingisK

Really?...I feel sorry for you


19 posted on 04/13/2012 10:12:29 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: GingisK

Really?...I feel sorry for you


20 posted on 04/13/2012 10:12:29 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: GingisK

Really?...I feel sorry for you


21 posted on 04/13/2012 10:12:33 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: GingisK

Really?....As much as a lot of people hate Romulus you better damn well vote for him over Obango!


22 posted on 04/13/2012 10:14:45 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Comment section is downright amusing--a symphony of wishful thinking and denial.
23 posted on 04/13/2012 10:17:44 AM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: AngelesCrestHighway
...you better damn well vote for him...

Who are you, the reciprocal KKK? I will vote, or not vote, for whomever I damn well please.

24 posted on 04/13/2012 10:19:12 AM PDT by GingisK
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To: 12chachacha
The reality is that there are three key swing states which decide all elections: Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Win two and you limp over the finish line. Win all three and you cruise.

So, unless you live in one of these three states, you aren't going to help decide the presidential election anyway. But you damn will better turn out to elect Senators and Congressmen who will reign either a Marxist or a RINO.

Yeah, I know, there are people in semi-swing states such as Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Missouri, New Mexico and Virginia who honestly think they help decide presidential elections.

There is an infinitesimal chance that you might. But the reality is that the same demographics and dynamics which determine the outcome in the big three swing states also determine the outcome in the semi-swingers.

25 posted on 04/13/2012 10:22:17 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: 12chachacha
Come on. Does anybody really think that if Romney had been in the white house that last three years that we would be in the same mess we are now? There is no difference between Obama and Romney, NONE AT ALL? Some people are just getting way too carried away with the “I’m not voting for Romney, WAAA” stuff

Do these people think that the Supreme Court would have had those 2 idiots appointed under Romney. I suggest all of you know that there is no bigger destroyer to this nation than Big Ears. NONE! Mittens ain't my fav but if you want the SC changed to a USSR then stay home or vote for an unelected 3rd party. Personally, I like Mittens much better than McLame.

26 posted on 04/13/2012 10:30:27 AM PDT by Digger (If RINO is your selection then failure is your election)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Well, there’s still at least one way they’ll be similar.

Some people will once again come to the conclusion that neither of these men should be our president, and refuse to vote for one of them.

Good luck RNC. You’re going to need a boatload of it.


27 posted on 04/13/2012 10:33:14 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (I believe in Cap and Trade. I know, I know... Cap spending and trade Obama!)
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To: 12chachacha
You are detecting the effect of intense ego involvement on critical judgment. The disgruntled santorum hangers-on and a few others to be sure, were so invested in their own personal wonderfulness as Santorum boosters, that they reject a whole wide range of information which doesn't fit their pinpoint narrow world view.

A side effect of this massive rejection is that otherwise obvious and objective differences are ignored or denied. This is a well-known phenomenon in the social psychology of attitude structure, and familiar to students of the history of political ideologies, religious movements, and related "causes.".

Zealots of all kinds, regardless of content, do the same thing--"you have to be exactly what I want you to be or you are totally unacceptable and therefore lumped into an undifferentiated mass." This is illustrated as, sooner or later, extreme movements always splinter over sometimes tiny insignificant differences.

Not surprisingly, that characterizes the conservative movement's efforts in the recent primary campaign.

28 posted on 04/13/2012 10:33:24 AM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: SusaninOhio

“I do not for a second believe that Mitt Romney hates America.”

Agreed and I think this is VITALLY important.


29 posted on 04/13/2012 10:40:19 AM PDT by Persevero (Homeschooling for Excellence since 1992)
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To: Vigilanteman
Like Arnold in California, he may be a RINO, but at least one with the sense to realize that a healthy private sector is necessary to generate the taxes to grown the nanny state efficiently.

When Arnold took the reigns in California, the state was about the fifth economic power on the planet. When he left office it was about th 10th.

The business and private sector flight out of the state during his terms in office, was massife.

Don't kid yourself what a RINO is capable of.

Take a peek at this post on this thread. Then tell me you're anxious to vote for Mitt.

I am not.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2871677/posts?page=11#11

30 posted on 04/13/2012 10:40:32 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (I believe in Cap and Trade. I know, I know... Cap spending and trade Obama!)
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To: hinckley buzzard

I was a Santorum supporter, but I am not inclined to not vote for another candidate if they will be good for the nation.

That post number 11 on this thread looms large. A Romney term in office would not be good for this nation.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2871677/posts?page=11#11


31 posted on 04/13/2012 10:43:57 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (I believe in Cap and Trade. I know, I know... Cap spending and trade Obama!)
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To: SoConPubbie

Nice. It’s not pleasant, but it’s the honest truth we have to deal with.


32 posted on 04/13/2012 10:46:04 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (I believe in Cap and Trade. I know, I know... Cap spending and trade Obama!)
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To: Buckeye McFrog
btw, amazingly frank and honest assessment for a lefty rag like TNR

I agree. This article is the least dishonest thing I've seen written by a commie in a long time.

33 posted on 04/13/2012 10:46:17 AM PDT by rogue yam
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To: AmericanInTokyo

It does appear Romney is going to be the candidate. If people, especially Conservative feel the way you posted, then the country is surely lost; even if Romney wins w/o their votes. If they can not see the real and present danger 4 more years of obama poses, and the ability of a Romney presidency to at the very least slow down the accelerated slide, then there is no hope.

At the very least, the next president will get to place one, if not two Supreme Court Justices. We know what type of judge, and I use that term loosely, obama will nominate. That alone should be enough to make even the most vehement anti- Romeny Conservative take notice.


34 posted on 04/13/2012 10:54:21 AM PDT by Turbo Pig (...to close with and destroy the enemy...)
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To: GingisK

So you may vote for Obama?....God help you!


35 posted on 04/13/2012 10:55:21 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; SunkenCiv; theothercheek; Clintonfatigued; Eleutheria5; Just A Nobody; ...
Reading the posted article, and considering that the author is from the left-leaning Brookings Institution and is writing for the left-leaning New Republic, you get the feeling that the Left as a bunch - when candid - isn't very upbeat about O's re-election prospects.
36 posted on 04/13/2012 10:55:53 AM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: nascarnation

“Do you really think Romney will do worse than McLame? With $4 gas, 16% real unemployment, recurring $1.5 trillion deficits, and serious inflation in everyday items?”

You’re right; the article mentions Iran, but it has been years since most voters had the luxury of worrying about so distant a threat. People looking for their next rent or mortgage payment don’t give Iran a second thought when it comes to elections, and libs are dreaming if they think Obama will win on any international issues - they are irrelevant in this election (with the exception of the southern border).


37 posted on 04/13/2012 11:00:04 AM PDT by kearnyirish2
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To: justiceseeker93

“you get the feeling that the Left as a bunch - when candid - isn’t very upbeat about O’s re-election prospects.”

With good reason; they know things are much worse now than 4 years ago for most Americans.


38 posted on 04/13/2012 11:01:42 AM PDT by kearnyirish2
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To: SusaninOhio

“You can try to convince me that I am wrong, but I do not for a second believe that Mitt Romney hates America.”

You’re right; he’s not my first choice, but I think he realizes what America did for him personally while the token president wants to “fundamentally change” it.


39 posted on 04/13/2012 11:04:33 AM PDT by kearnyirish2
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Obama's biggest weakness is not the economy. It's the disenchantment of so many whites who bought his 2008 message of of a new post racial tranquility, only to discover that he is a race baiting opportunist in the vein of Al Sharpton.

His biggest weakness should have been Obamacare, but the selection of Romney nullifies that.

40 posted on 04/13/2012 11:05:23 AM PDT by CharacterCounts (A vote for the lesser of two evils only insures the triumph of evil.)
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To: kearnyirish2
I'll take this family over that one running the country any day...
41 posted on 04/13/2012 11:09:02 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: Turbo Pig
At the very least, the next president will get to place one, if not two Supreme Court Justices. We know what type of judge, and I use that term loosely, obama will nominate. That alone should be enough to make even the most vehement anti- Romeny Conservative take notice.

What makes you think Romney would nominate conservative Justices?

His track record, as well as the track record of previous moderate Republican Presidents, argue against such an appointment.

42 posted on 04/13/2012 11:12:07 AM PDT by CharacterCounts (A vote for the lesser of two evils only insures the triumph of evil.)
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To: AngelesCrestHighway

Aye; same here.


43 posted on 04/13/2012 11:14:23 AM PDT by kearnyirish2
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To: AngelesCrestHighway

WOW!! That’s impressive!

Mittens’ head looks too big for his body.


44 posted on 04/13/2012 11:16:38 AM PDT by americas.best.days...
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To: 12chachacha

I’ll crawl over ten miles of broken glass to vote against Obama - which necessarily means I’ll be voting for Romney, but with a singular lack of enthusiasm. I’m getting seriously disgusted with the sh*t the GOP establishment keeps serving up for us.


45 posted on 04/13/2012 11:17:45 AM PDT by Spartan79 (I view great cities as pestilential to the morals, the health, and the liberties of man.)
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To: AmericanInTokyo
Yes, I'm sure the excitement for Romney among conservatives will be palpable!

"OK, folks, yes, I know he's a liar, he's not a conservative, and you can't trust him, but he's OUR candidate! C'mon - let's give it up for our candidate, MITT ROMNEY!" [claps hands excitedly]


46 posted on 04/13/2012 11:27:40 AM PDT by COBOL2Java (FUMR)
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To: CharacterCounts
What makes you think Romney would nominate conservative Justices?

Three things (two regrading Romney, one about voters):

1) It's a safe bet that he's not going to nominate the rabidly liberal types that obama has and is going to again, if he gets the chance.

2) Romney is a political wind sock, not a ideologue, like obama. With a more conservative Congress, and pressure from the right, his nominees will most likely be to the right of center. You can not say that about obama.

3) Even if you do not like Romney; he's not my first pick, taking a small step in the right direction is better than helping push the country off the abyss.

Look, this isn't personal salvation...picking the lesser of two evils is OK, and WILL help stop, or at least retard the downward slide the country is in.

Fight every step of the way, or abdicate the field: Small victories, or big loses...the choice is yours.

47 posted on 04/13/2012 11:38:04 AM PDT by Turbo Pig (...to close with and destroy the enemy...)
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To: CharacterCounts

Obama’s biggest weakness is not the economy. It’s the disenchantment of so many whites who bought his 2008 message of of a new post racial tranquility, only to discover that he is a race baiting opportunist in the vein of Al Sharpton.

0bama’s scorched earth campaign may energize his base, but it will alienate everyone else. Democrats used to be better at this kind of stuff. This election, however, they are taking on a more bitter tone, and that will help Romney more than 0bama.


48 posted on 04/13/2012 11:39:35 AM PDT by yawningotter
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

4 later


49 posted on 04/13/2012 11:43:56 AM PDT by maine-iac7 ("If you bought it - a truck brought it" - and because of the price of gas/it costs more.)
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To: GingisK

One belongs to a religion the allows multiple wives...


50 posted on 04/13/2012 11:47:22 AM PDT by null and void (Day 1179 of America's ObamaVacation from reality [Heroes aren't made, Frank, they're cornered...])
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