Skip to comments.Fun with Electoral Math: Obama 186, Romney 156, 192 In Play
Posted on 04/14/2012 4:02:28 PM PDT by SMGFan
With the Republican primary winding down, and the general election about to heat up, it's time for an initial look at delegate math. What states will go blue? Which red? Which are purple, and how will they swing?
Recall December, when Obama campaign manager Jim Messina revealed Team O's "Five Paths to Victory." The campaign first assumed that they would win all the states John Kerry took in 2004, and then hit the necessary 270 electoral votes to win one of five ways: 1. Win Florida; 2. Win Ohio; 3. Win North Carolina and Virginia; 4. Win Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Iowa and 5. Win Arizona.
(Excerpt) Read more at townhall.com ...
scary!! I hope the mighty middle realizes what is at stake - which is this constitutional republic as we know and love it!
Romney has ONLY 535 Hard Delegates after 30 states where he has only won 3 by popular vote, There are 899 More Hard Delegates to win. Romney averages only 44% . If enough people do not give up and continue voting NOT -ROMNEY we will have a Brokered convention. Last one we got a Regan and he only had 30% to Nixon’s overwhelming odds going in
That is a pretty sad analysis. Essentially every state that went close against G.W.Bush twice, ie Wisconsin Pennsylvania etc are put in the Dim column.
Per 270towin.com, if Romney has 191 now, and he takes FL (29), NC (15), and VA (13), that puts him at 248.
Then he needs any two of OH (Kasich), PA (can Santorum deliver?), MI (alleged “home” state of Romney), or CO.
If Christie is so popular in NJ, can he deliver for Mitt? Strange that they don’t call this a battleground at least.
The last poll showed that only 39% of Americans will vote for Buckwheat.
Peddle your propaganda elsewhere.
No, we have enough of an overflow of libs from New York City plus a substantial African American population that it's at best a very very very remote possibility. The state only goes Republican in landslide, 1984 type elections, and I don't see that happening. At least our Congressional redistricting should split 50-50 R-D which is an improvement.
I do see ABO (anyone but Obama) winning Pennsylvania and Ohio, though.
“Create your own map:”
I did, and by my best-scenario prediction, Romney wins it 270 to 268 electoral votes.
Romney gets the rest, including Florida, Virginia, and Ohio. Without these, he loses.
Even with the numbers above, Nebraska could throw a wrench into things because their electoral votes are “split” (not winner-take-all). Suppose Obama wins the district that includes Omaha? In that case, wouldn’t it end up as a 269-269 tie? (Note, Maine also assigns electoral votes proportionally, but I expect Obama to win everything there).
Too bad the Republican legislature of Pennsylvania failed to pass legislation making PA a “split electoral vote” state. If that were the case, Romney might pick up at least half of the ev’s there.
But this election isn’t going to be easy.
It’s going to be a squeaker or a blowout.
And for the “R guy”, the best he can hope for is being the squeaker....
That’s the way I see it.
Your viewpoint may be different.
reagan was 10 pts down in september.
b.o. has plenty of very bad news before the election, there is at least a 30% chance that pres. zero loses bymore than carter.