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Battle for White House (RCP Electoral Map: 0bama 227 - Romney 170, or why RINOs Lose)
RealClearPolitics ^ | 4/15/2012 | Unattributed

Posted on 04/15/2012 11:26:42 AM PDT by mojito

227 Obama - Toss Ups 141 - Romney 170

270 Electoral Votes Needed To Win

Click Link to View Map

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; electoralmath; mittensvszero
Take a look at the map and then do the math.

RINOs don't win.

1 posted on 04/15/2012 11:26:54 AM PDT by mojito
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To: mojito

I am no RINO fan, but looking at the map, tell me what Obamastates light blue and Dark blue would change with a RINO, no matter who is running those states are always going to be in that category at this point. I do believe a couple gray states could lean pink with a stronger conservative candidate, but possibly not. The demographics are what they are right now. I actually think Wisconsin could trend back to a Republican candidate. I will hold my nose and vote for Romney since it would be far better for the country to have anyone but Obama in the white house the next four years. The other thing to remember is, if Romney can pull out a win, that should gaurantee a House and Senate majority was well, for that reason alone you should stand behind the Republican candidate.


2 posted on 04/15/2012 11:35:21 AM PDT by shoedog
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To: mojito

I find it hard to believe that AZ and MO would go for Obama this time around when they didn’t in 2008.


3 posted on 04/15/2012 11:36:48 AM PDT by Shadow44
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To: mojito

The Peoples Republic of CA tips the scales to Soetoro. Pretty much a toss up for the mushy 141. Two Liberals running against each other.


4 posted on 04/15/2012 11:40:31 AM PDT by VRWC For Truth (Throw the bums out who vote yes on the bailout)
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To: mojito

It’s hard for me to see Florida as a toss up. Or Arizona.


5 posted on 04/15/2012 11:46:07 AM PDT by Brilliant
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To: Shadow44
no way AZ is a toss up. First there is a large Mormon population and secondly, the State Legislature and Governor are Republicans. This will go strong for Romney. I also find the GA leans Romney as wrong. The last time GA voted for a Dem President was Jimmy Carter. This one is going strong for Romney
6 posted on 04/15/2012 11:46:23 AM PDT by martinidon
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To: mojito

The demographics show that liberals are leaving Cal. and the Northeast for the sunbelt. They bring their voting habits with them. Other than maybe N.C. I do not see one toss up where a more conservative challenger would have a better chance than Romney. I also think Mo and Ar are likely Romney wins. Romney needs 100 EVs from the tossups.What conservative would have a less challenging time getting them. And don’t believe the poll numbers about %ages of conservatives and libs. A great many self identify as conservatives but they’re actually slightly right of center moderrates.


7 posted on 04/15/2012 11:47:48 AM PDT by xkaydet65
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To: Shadow44

The commie “media” in Arizona has been working hard to put the illegal aliens in charge here. We’ve been flooded with commie libs who are hell bent on turning this state blue.


8 posted on 04/15/2012 11:49:39 AM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (ObamaCare is like a stool sample. You have to pass it to find out what's in it.)
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To: VRWC For Truth

He’s being called a Republican in Name Only but maybe he’s
more of a Conservative in Name Only. The vast majority of people voting for him are registered Republicans. Maybe
some unenrolleds, taking a GOP ballot. People aren’t
crazy about him but the fact is that when presented with
alternatives to the Right like Newt and Rick, in many
cases they did not get the vote of Republicans. Maybe the party has drifted left. Again, conservative were offered as alternatives.

They did not win favor from Republicans. Maybe next time...

(Maybe it needs to be a shorter campaign season..maybe the likes of Rove engineered a long slog of
a campaign to get an establishment guy in...whatever.)


9 posted on 04/15/2012 11:50:36 AM PDT by raccoonradio
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To: VRWC For Truth

Wasn’t CA suppose to fall into the ocean?


10 posted on 04/15/2012 11:51:17 AM PDT by Linda Frances (Woe to those who call evil good and good evil, who put darkness for light and light for darkness.)
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To: mojito

The basic megatrend is that with 40 years of wide-open population transfers from the third world, the demographics are getting tougher and tougher for the GOP nationwide.

California used to reliably send GOP senators to DC and give its electoral votes to GOP presidential candidates. Es impossible ahora.


11 posted on 04/15/2012 11:53:00 AM PDT by Dagnabitt ("None of the above" ain't running.)
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To: mojito
???????????????????????????????????

You do realize there are other maps and polls of this sort available online.

Obama 429 Gingrich 101

Obama 335 Santorum 177

Obama 372 Paul 158

I don't know the dates or the validity of these polls and maps, but even if yours is the most valid breakdown, Romney's not the only Republican with problems in the EC.

Maybe we should nominate some imaginary character who can carry VA and NC, AZ and NV, IA and OH, but how would a non-existent candidate win over swing voters and how would a purely notional president be able to fulfill his constitutional duties?

12 posted on 04/15/2012 11:58:31 AM PDT by x (Remember that a lone amateur built Noah's Ark. A large group of professionals built the Titanic.)
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To: Dagnabitt

This will be very painful to watch. There is no “there” there for the RINO. Avert your gaze and go on with your life as long as you can.


13 posted on 04/15/2012 11:58:43 AM PDT by claudehopper
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To: raccoonradio

Wold love to see what the RCP map looks like when it’s Newt vs. Obama.

Newt couldn’t do any worse than Romney in the Northeast.


14 posted on 04/15/2012 11:59:41 AM PDT by Ben Barrack (Let's Talk About Something Important!)
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To: Linda Frances

We can all hope for some divine intervention. :)


15 posted on 04/15/2012 12:03:35 PM PDT by VRWC For Truth (Throw the bums out who vote yes on the bailout)
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To: mojito

VA NC and Florida will all be lost because of the liberal RINO heading up our ticket.

On the other hand AZ, NV, and Colorado should be easy pick ups for Romney when you factor in the voting patterns of Mormon bigots.


16 posted on 04/15/2012 12:07:08 PM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Go Newt!)
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To: mojito

Romney is actually lucky the economy is so bad, if it wasn’t I don’t even think that RINO could win Texas.


17 posted on 04/15/2012 12:08:37 PM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Go Newt!)
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To: mojito

If Obama wins this one, the next one will be 50-0.


18 posted on 04/15/2012 12:09:17 PM PDT by tacticalogic ("Oh, bother!" said Pooh, as he chambered his last round.)
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To: x

No one will do worse against Obama than Romney, I don’t care what polls you quote.

NC and Virgina should NEVER have even been in play, only a RINO mormon yankee as our nominee makes that happen.


19 posted on 04/15/2012 12:10:27 PM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Go Newt!)
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To: raccoonradio

Romney averaged about 30% of the raw primary votes. Hardly a mandate. Winner take all states tipped delegate counts to Romney. Most of the winner take all sates also have OPEN primaries. The GOP is as Socialist as the ‘Rats. A one party system of two Socialist parties. The game is RIGGED.


20 posted on 04/15/2012 12:13:40 PM PDT by VRWC For Truth (Throw the bums out who vote yes on the bailout)
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To: shoedog

I also can’t figure out how that map would look any different now if Gingrich was our nominee.


21 posted on 04/15/2012 12:17:54 PM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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To: Dagnabitt

“The basic megatrend is that with 40 years of wide-open population transfers from the third world, the demographics are getting tougher and tougher for the GOP nationwide.
California used to reliably send GOP senators to DC and give its electoral votes to GOP presidential candidates. Es impossible ahor”

Most perceptive post of the thread.

What chance is that the “wide-open population transfers” may stop, or even slow?

What does this portend for the future of conservatives, and even for American Euros?


22 posted on 04/15/2012 12:24:23 PM PDT by Road Glide
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To: mojito

NC is listed as a toss up.

Probably because Obama won NC during the last election.

Lets see - Obama “won” NC with right at 25,000 votes. Just over that number of NC voters voted for Barr.

And Romney “wins” the Republican nomination even though he was only pulling 40% of the vote.

If conservative primary and general election voters ever get their act together they just might win something.


23 posted on 04/15/2012 12:26:28 PM PDT by PeteB570 ( Islam is the sea in which the Terrorist Shark swims. The deeper the sea the larger the shark.)
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To: mojito

Soetoro loses Florida. For sure!


24 posted on 04/15/2012 12:28:38 PM PDT by mojitojoe (American by birth. Southern by the grace of God. Conservative by reason and logic.)
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To: Brilliant

It’s not. FL and AZ will not go to the Kenyan.


25 posted on 04/15/2012 12:29:43 PM PDT by mojitojoe (American by birth. Southern by the grace of God. Conservative by reason and logic.)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

You’re wrong about Florida. There are lots of snowbird Republicans down here, that aren’t particularly conservative on social issues. My sister in law that voted for the Kenyan last time loves Romney and changed her voter registration so she could vote for him in the primary.

We haven’t spoken since I found out in 2008 that she voted for Soetoro. She’s so proud that she changed back to a republican and voted for Mittens. She still disgusts me.


26 posted on 04/15/2012 12:37:24 PM PDT by mojitojoe (American by birth. Southern by the grace of God. Conservative by reason and logic.)
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To: mojito

227 Obama - Toss Ups 141 - Romney 170

I’ve been saying for a good while that it’s my opinion that Willard can’t win. I’m less sure of that now. But looking at your numbers above, the way I see it is a strong win for Willard- he needs 71% of the 141, and he’ll probably get 80% of toss ups.


27 posted on 04/15/2012 12:37:24 PM PDT by matthew fuller (The Magic Mormon is now in position to re-elect the Magic Negro.)
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To: mojito

It’s the economy, stupid. Obama is a one-term wonder.


28 posted on 04/15/2012 12:39:34 PM PDT by Freedom_Is_Not_Free (REPEAL OBAMACARE. Nothing else matters.)
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To: VRWC For Truth
The game is RIGGED.

Why yes, yes it is.

29 posted on 04/15/2012 1:35:31 PM PDT by itsahoot (I will not vote for Romney period, and by election day you won't like him either.)
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To: Dagnabitt

The rise of the white Hispanic means all previous demographic calculus is moot.


30 posted on 04/15/2012 1:53:26 PM PDT by gusopol3
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To: gusopol3

LOL ! Though I think, however, that the even that Florida White Hispanic who “stalked, profiled, tortured and murdered a Cosby Show cast member” was a registered democrat.


31 posted on 04/15/2012 2:47:12 PM PDT by Dagnabitt ("None of the above" ain't running.)
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To: mojito

If Romney is fighting for Iowa or North Carolina, it will long since have been all over. If Obama is fighting for Michigan or Wisconsin, same thing in the other direction.

A tight election starts out with Obama at 227 (as RCP says) but with Romney at 225.

It would then come down to six states: the big three (OH, PA, and FL) and three more: NH (where Romney may play well), and CO and NV (where the Mormon enthusiasm may enable Romney to compete against the Hispanic demographic factor).

This math shows the huge importance of Florida. If you get Florida from this list, than you only need to one of Ohio or Pennsylvania, or (for Romney) both of Colorado and Nevada with Obama taking both Ohio and Pennsylvania. For Romney that is only 269 (a tie) but sufficient to win because of the strong Republican majority of House delegations.


32 posted on 04/15/2012 3:46:39 PM PDT by only1percent
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To: mojito

If Romney is fighting for Iowa or North Carolina, it will long since have been all over. If Obama is fighting for Michigan or Wisconsin, same thing in the other direction.

A tight election starts out with Obama at 227 (as RCP says) but with Romney at 225.

It would then come down to six states: the big three (OH, PA, and FL) and three more: NH (where Romney may play well), and CO and NV (where the Mormon enthusiasm may enable Romney to compete against the Hispanic demographic factor).

This math shows the huge importance of Florida. If you get Florida from this list, than you only need to one of Ohio or Pennsylvania, or (for Romney) both of Colorado and Nevada with Obama taking both Ohio and Pennsylvania. For Romney that is only 269 (a tie) but sufficient to win because of the strong Republican majority of House delegations.


33 posted on 04/15/2012 3:48:15 PM PDT by only1percent
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To: mojito

Not a RINO or a Romney fan. Just a conservative realist. Romney will beat Obama just like Romney won the primary. It will be very close but I’d be willing to bet money that Romney beats Obama. In fact, he better because if Obama wins he will sweep in liberals in numbers big enough to wreak all sorts of havoc in a second term.


34 posted on 04/15/2012 4:02:18 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (.)
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To: Shadow44

Missouri will go easily to the GOP this time around. The reality is that Mo is now a pretty reliable red state.


35 posted on 04/15/2012 9:46:07 PM PDT by WILLIALAL
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