ADP Change in Nonfarm Payrolls data by YCharts
Chicago Fed National Activity Index data by YCharts
ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index data by YCharts
Midwest Economy Index data by YCharts
US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls data by YCharts
Posted on 04/25/2012 6:35:06 AM PDT by Kaslin
Inquiring minds are listening to Marc Faber, aka Dr. Doom, on the global economy.
Link if video does not play: Marc Faber speaks of Imminent Market Crash
Faber says China faces a recession defined as a slowdown to 3%.
Interestingly, 3% is the same long-term target that Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets has come up with. Indeed Pettis has made two bets with the Economist over growth rates and when Chain will surpass the US in terms of GDP.
The Economist says China will pass the US up by 2018. Pettis and I say no way. Pettis also says China will average 3.5% or less growth for the rest of the decade. I agree with Pettis.
For details of the bet and my thoughts, please see 12 Predictions by Michael Pettis on China; Non-Food Commodity Prices Will Collapse Over Next Three to Four Years; Nails in the Hard Landing Coffin?
Faber does not believe China's GDP as stated now, and neither do I. Both of us think China has hugely understated inflation.
However, Faber sees a chance of serious inflation in the US. I don't. Faber narrowly focuses on money supply and ignores credit. And credit will collapse once again if the US heads back into recession as Faber thinks. Indeed credit has at best held steady in this recovery, after one corrects for student loans.
Please see The Real Consumer Credit Story: Virtually No Recovery in Revolving Credit, No Recovery in Non-Revolving Credit
for a discussion.
Since credit dwarfs money supply, odds of significant inflation in the face of negative credit growth is not high. Those betting on high inflation or hyperinflation have simply been wrong, and will continue to be wrong until Bernanke reignites bank lending.
Given capital constraints on banks, consumer needs to deleverage, boomers heading for retirement with insufficient savings, and businesses reluctant to expand, Bernanke is fighting a losing battle and will be for quite some time
I don’t necessarily agree with all his reasoning, but I do believe the market is in for a big fall. It is up today on Apple’s news while durable goods is down 4.2%. You can’t eat IPADS and you can’t fill your tank with IPADS. Apple doesn’t provide US Jobs (They are built in China). Not sure when it will happen, but pretty soon, the market will tank!
Back in the “olden days”, the national debt was money that we owed ourselves. While it mattered whether or not we reduced this debt, it also didn’t matter to the extent that it was our own money.
The difference today, however, is that the globalists we have put into the WH relatively recently have sold our debt primarily to China. This means that we opened up a credit card and loaded it up. So, now our debt is a REAL debt that we owe to someone else. And, because of the co-mingling of our debt with that of so many other “one world” nations, our economic future is indelibly linked with those of a number of other nations around the world.
Collectively, the world’s debt is so big and so tenuous that, it will only take a minor event to cause a major collapse of the world’s economies. The predictions have been that that collapse is coming either this year or next. Greece and Europe are currently “on the bubble” as the benchmarks for where the world is headed. So far, the picture is not hopeful. Greeks and now, Europeans, are rejecting the necessary austerity measures that their governments are trying to implement to gain control over their debt. And, the people are so addicted to the overspending that going on an economic diet is unacceptable.
This is what zero has brought to America with all his spending and government freebies. Too many of us are now suckling at the government’s teat that, if the money suddenly has to stop because we can’t afford it, we won’t have the skills our ancestors brought with them to make America what it was. Instead, we’ll all line up and complain about how it isn’t faaaaaiiiiirrrrrrr that the money got cut off.
America, like much of the world, is in deep financial doo-doo because of irresponsible politicans who would rather be re-elected, than be responsible. One of the easiest things in the world is spending OPM (Other People’s Money) and one of the most difficult is, like the sign President Truman had on his desk, making the “buck stop here”. We elect moral cowards to political office and then we wonder why things are getting worse. Elections have consequences and we are reaping the consequences of decades of electing and re-electing moral cowards to political office.
Before any of us step into the voting booth this November, we need to think about the people we intend to elect to office - did they EARN our vote by their actions, or are we GIVING them our vote because that’s the only choice we have and they SAY things we like to hear??
(Hint: ACTIONS always speak louder than words!!)
Forgive me for such an unsophisticated thought, but we’ve recently seen the market undergo a “boom” with little evidence that the economy is improving or that life for middle class Americans is getting any better as a result.
If that’s the case, then how will a market “crash” make that much of a difference, either?
Stock PRICES may or may not “crash”.
The REAL story is the CURRENCY that the stock market is valued in, is being devalued like a cheap whore by the US Government.
The difference will be like the difference between a ‘fender bender’ and being ‘T Boned’ by a drunk driver in a full size SUV who is traveling at 70 miles an hour.
hmmph...What does this guy know? 12 to 15 months ago a quart of Mayfield milk cost $1.69 at Kroger. Three days ago I paid $2.89 for a quart of Mayfield milk.
That’s a 171% increase in one year and a few months. Most items are rising in price at one rate or another. Grocery items are rising a lot more than the 1.5% to 2% that Bernake says is the inflation rate. He lies.
Bump for later
The PPT will never let it happen until after the election.
Statistically, the benefit to "education" occurs between ages 14 and 22, where one goes to high school and university. Obtaining an MBA, law degree, or another graduate degree after age 26-28 historically has not resulted in a net benefit in terms of job/career prospects or wage/salary income; and this has become particularly the case since the late '90s.
In other words, the vast majority of people running up debt at universities, community colleges, and for-profit technical schools are wasting their time and money, as well as directing scarce resources to the "health care" and "education" sectors that don't need more misallocation further driving up costs.
Needless to say, there is no precedent in US history for middle-aged unemployed, underemployed, or unemployable Americans running up debt in an economy that has not created a net new private sector full-time job per capita in at least 10 years.
This is a surprise - thanks for posting...
ADP Change in Nonfarm Payrolls data by YCharts
Chicago Fed National Activity Index data by YCharts
ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index data by YCharts
Midwest Economy Index data by YCharts
US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls data by YCharts
PowerPoint is a good tool; but I don't think it can hold the financial markets together by itself.
I am looking for the top and I will pull everything I have out, perhaps late September? Then wait for a March 2008 event and buy bargains.
You are much more optimistic than I am about the future.
Maybe these two could do a PPV for the "Title".
...on the other hand...(end economist joke here).
I’m tired of hearing this.
Turn off your computer and turn on CNBC..
The U.S stock market can't stand on it own without Fed injections. If TBTF banks had to return to mark to market accounting everything would implode.
So exactly what is someone named “Dr Doom” gonna say? We’re NOT doomed? Everything is coming up roses? Kinda defeats the name.
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