This from the Washington Post:
A detailed analysis of Romneys various paths to the 270 electoral votes he would need to claim the presidency suggests he has a ceiling of somewhere right around 290 electoral votes.
While Romneys team would absolutely take a 290-electoral-vote victory, that means he has only 20 electoral votes to play with a paper-thin margin for error.
Romneys relatively low electoral-vote ceiling isnt unique to him. No Republican presidential nominee has received more than 300 electoral votes in more than two decades. (Vice President George H.W. Bush won 426 electoral votes in his 1988 victory over Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis.)
By contrast, Bill Clinton in 1992 (370 electoral votes) and 1996 (379) as well as Obama in 2008 (365) soared well beyond the 300-electoral-vote marker.
Much of that is attributable to the fact that Democrats have near-certain wins in population (and, therefore, electoral-vote) behemoths such as California (55 electoral voters), New York (29) and Illinois (20).
Obama will have 260+ EVs in his hip pocket, packaged and guaranteed, before the first vote is tabulated.
Romney will get 270.
I like the trend here the more Obama lies to college kids this week the more his numbers go down....