Skip to comments.Gallup: Catholic vote a tossup, 46/46
Posted on 05/03/2012 7:01:44 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
In 2008, Barack Obama won the Catholic vote by nine points, 54/45, over John McCain on his way to a seven-point victory in the national popular vote. Three months after announcing the HHS mandate that would force religious hospitals, schools, and charities to fund contraception, sterilization, and abortifacients, Obama has lost that edge among the tens of millions of Catholic voters. A new Gallup poll shows Obama in a dead heat with Mitt Romney, at just about the same level as McCain got in 2008:
Catholic voters in the United States are evenly split in their support for Barack Obama and Mitt Romney for president, mirroring the national trend. However, Hispanic Catholics --- about 18% of the total group of Catholic voters --- are overwhelmingly likely to support Obama over Romney, while a majority of non-Hispanic white Catholics support Romney.
Obama led Romney by one percentage point, 46% to 45%, among the more than 8,000 registered voters interviewed as part of Gallup Daily tracking conducted April 11-30. Among the 1,915 Catholics interviewed during that time, support for Obama and Romney was almost the same, with 46% support for Obama and 46% for Romney.
Catholics’ divided preferences at this point contrast with those of the largest religious group in the country, Protestants, whose support swings to Romney by 51% to 41%. The split in Catholics’ preferences also differs from the choice among those who identify with another religion or no religion at all, a group that clearly supports Obama, by 58% to 33%.
The Protestant vote is going to be a problem for Obama, too. He lost Protestants to McCain by the same numbers, 45/54. However, the difference in both numbers is that Obama is a known quantity this time, unlike in 2008. Those who remain undecided now are much less likely to break towards the incumbent. Romney already has a ten-point lead among Protestants, and could easily stretch it out to the mid-teens by Election Day. Protestants made up 54% of the electorate in 2008, and it’s probably a safe bet that they’ll turn out even stronger in 2012.
Obama won despite the disadvantage mainly because of his strength among Catholics. Gallup tries to soften the blow by noting that Obama does very well among Hispanic Catholics, 70/20, but they are only about 18% of the bloc. Obama is deeply unpopular among non-Hispanic Catholics, 38/55. Whatever else happens, the Catholic vote won’t come to Obama’s rescue in 2012 as it did in 2008.
The US Conference of Catholic Bishops have not relented one iota on the issue of the HHS mandate, which means these numbers won’t be improving any time soon. That may even start having an impact on Obama’s lead among Hispanic Catholics. Obama will have to defend this intrusion on religious expression, thanks to the USCCB’s energetic attacks, but the administration will have to do better than this:
In sworn testimony before the House Education and Workforce Committee, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said that her general counsel did not write a legal memo explaining the religious freedom issues in the birth control mandate. During the same line of questioning, Sebelius also admitted to being unfamiliar with several important Supreme Court religious freedom cases.
Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.) said that he knew of only three tests that the Supreme Court has used to balance a constitutionally protected freedom against a policy goal. He described those three tests and then asked Sebelius last Thursday, “Which of those three constitutional balancing tests were you making reference to when you said you ‘balanced’ things?”
“Congressman, I’m not a lawyer and I don’t pretend to understand the nuances of the constitutional balancing tests,” Sebelius answered.
“Before this rule was promulgated, did you read any of the Supreme Court cases on religious liberty?” Gowdy later asked.
Sebelius answered that she did not.
Chris Cillizza and Rachel Weiner underscore the importance of this bloc:
As Gallups Frank Newport notes in a memo on the findings, Catholics have historically been a Democratic-leaning constituency the party can thank John F. Kennedy for that one but in recent decades have become more of a toss-up voting bloc.
The eight presidential elections reveal how up for grabs Catholics truly. The Republican nominee has carried Catholics four times, the Democratic nominee has carried Catholics four times. …
Keep an eye on the Catholic vote between now and November. How it goes will tell you a lot about who is going to be the next president.
And as long as the bishops maintain the fight against the Obama administration — and they defend the mandate so badly — it won’t be Obama who wins this bloc.
Way too early to compare the 2008 campaign to the 2012 campaign.....
but you will find lots of ‘so called Catholics’, who cover their eyes and ears when it comes to church doctrine, but listen to their UNIONS religiously.
Palpable evidence that the Church heirarchy is not emphasizing Church dogma and core beliefs with enough tenacity and rigor, accompanied by clear illustrations of the very real consequences for non-adherence.
Pray for our Bishops.
We need some "No Fetus Can Beat US" bumper stickers to slap on next to any Obama stickers found in the parking lots at mass.
This country is finished. If after everything we have gone through does not make 75 percent want this thug gone from office, what can you say?
RE: Wow - there must be as many stupid Catholics as there are stupid Jews.
There is a difference between being BAPTIZED a Catholic at birth and REALLY BEING a believing and faithful Catholic as an adult.
There are just too many of the former in this country.
This is like the poll of “Evangelicals” showing a doubling of support for Barry since 2008.
You can call yourself a “car” if you want, but no matter how much you make “vroom vroom” sounds, you’re not a car.
AMEN to that! 30+ years ago this buffoon would have been lucky to have 20% support.Hell McGovern was Ronald Reagan compared to this Marxist a-hole.
I have been “Prepping” for the past 6 months. Every time I start to doubt myself, I am hit between the eyes with something like this. I was convinced America was filled with uneducated people. People who would maybe finally “Get It”. No more...Most Americans are just plain dumb as a box of rocks. I will take care of my own and the rest of these Jack@$$es can suck eggs. If they can find any.
The unfortunate thing is that the Catholic Church was a leading force in the union movement. Little did they know that it would develope into a communist movement.
That is a reasonable result, given the essential sameness of these two death culture persons.
I listened to him during the summer of 07, he scared the heck outta me then and scares me even more now. That’s why I will hold my nose and vote Romney.
Don't get me wrong, I'm no angel by any stretch. There are many times I've dragged myself to the alter needing pardon and spiritual refreshment. I like to think though that I see my sin and struggle against it, not embrace it.
Just as homosexuals have permeated the church and wounded so many young people with their perversion. It seems the church finds pardon for the abuser but not the young adult that launched off into a life of immorality as a direct result of the acts perpetrated upon them as a child...ie, adultery, divorce, alcoholism/drug dependence and other such destructive behaviors.
Any thoughts y'all?
This is actually a good number. As the article states, Obama won this group overwhelmingly 4 years ago, and it is split right now. This is before the campaign even begins, so the undecideds are likely to go to the challenger. If Romney splits or wins the Catholic vote, he wins, IMO.
It is interesting that the even split is primarily due to the unbalance of support from Hispanic Catholics who favor Obama. I suspect it is because they are not yet engaged in the Presidential campaign.
I hope that the 2 weeks of protests, fasting, and prayer against the HHS mandate (late June until July 4th) plus this administration’s policies which interfere with religious expression, will wake up more of the Catholics, especially the Hispanics. The article did allude to this possibility.
This is an “encouraging word”. Hope these numbers hold up because 75% of the undecideds go for the challenger on Election Day.
The Pew survey says Obama is trailing 57/37 so whom do you believe? As an active Catholic I believe there is no question Obama is way behind with Catholics and will actually lose with a record low number. Does anyone seriously believe this psy-ops release? Where Gallup got this number is a mystery, but the convenient assistance it provides Obama is very suspect. Those who think Catholics will support Obama are deluding themselves.
How any practicing Catholic who understands their faiths teaching could vote for a Democrat is beyond me...
However, Obama won by basically disgust at Bush, than anything else... Conservatives stayed home. At least in my state... had PA Voter turn out been the same across the state as it was in ‘04, Obama likely would not have won, even with the higher votes he got in Pittsburgh and Philly.
Fact is, the BUSH administration, IMHO was horrible at PR. They rarely got out their message or even tried to.. They let the opposition brow beat them daily, usually with lies and half truths, and instead of vehemently defending themselves daily they just quietly kept on keeping on. And while they were largely doing the right things, they never effectively countered the crap, so the crap in the general consciousness became fact.
This set the stage for depressed voter turnout, and silliness that was the 08 election.
If the Bush presidency teaches any lessons it should be, NEVER EVER let an allegation go unchallenged. Respond hard, fast and to EVERY single attack that is made.
I’m still dumb-founded as to how anyone could, or still can, vote for Obama. They have got to either be Entitlement whores or just ultra, ultra Liberal socially. Crazy world!!!
There is no excuse for ANY Catholic to vote for Zero...church leaders are not doing their job...not at all.
As a Catholic-—I will state that any Catholic who supports the Marxist, is supporting evil and anti-God policies—Slavery of the masses. They are SO STUPID. To vote for Zero is to vote for Satanic ideals. Wake up, Catholics—you Democrat-voting Catholics are destroying all the Values and Principles of this nation-—replacing them with Satanism/Atheism/Marxism which will eventually send all people who believe in God to the ovens.
True-—Rove Republicans—one World Government guys are the same-—they are hardly any better and have sold their soul to Satan, but we have to start to destroy the Chicago Democrat/union mafia/Marxist hold and take control over the platform of the Republican party and return it to the Virtues that formed it—not the “Virtue’s” and ideas of Barney Frank which turn the Constitution and Natural Law Theory on its head.
Frank removes God-Given Rights!!!!! So why do Catholics choose “no God Allowed” Democrats????? They are brainwashed and ignorant of the Constitution, especially Natural Law Theory—the Foundation of the US Constitution and US Law. They are stripped of all morality and are pseudo-Catholic who believe in Marxist ideas of radical egalitarianism—such an evil and inhumane ideology incompatible with the idea of God.
Pandering to "Hispanics" is fruitless.
"Hispanics" largely means Mexicans, and Mexicans come from Mexico. Mexico has a culture and political system that is Socialist. The world view of "Hispanics" is largely statist and entitlement oriented. The Catholic church does not moderate that world view, indeed it is reinforcing that world view through leftist, liberation theology subscribing clergy.
Thus we have "Catholics" voting in majority for a leader that advocates brutal, anti life, and indeed anti Catholic policies.
The Democrat party is a perfect fit for the bulk of "Hispanics" and isn't going to change.
If you’re Catholic, and you vote for 0bama,you’re not Catholic.
Seems about right for America the Stupid.
Ugh! I sure wish those “Catholics” that never even darken the door of their local parish would quit calling themselves Catholic.
As for me and the rest of the Catholics that take our faith seriously and follow the Church’s teachings, there will be no support for Obambi.
And it doesn’t help having a Mormon on the GOP ticket as I know many won’t support him based solely on that.
If that was the case, Obama would have won the Catholic vote 99 percent to 1. Besides, Jews run and own the Democrat party. Why shouldn't they vote Democrat?
I left the catholic church a long time ago due to its liberalism and liberation theology and other bs.
Family utterly pissed off w me over it, but it is what it is.
Practicing Catholics don't. Those that only attend Mass on Easter and Christmas do.
I know these guys....hard working construction/manufacturing/deliveryman etc. types, who despise guys like zer0bama but vote with their pocket books and ability to feed their families and cant see how Marxists like ‘the messiah’ are killing the jobs in the long run.
of course on the other end, there are the teacher union types who WANT a socialist society....
1. There's a significant dropoff between white Catholics and non-white Catholics in voting (outside of maybe Florida with Cubans).
2. Many "Catholics" are not practicing Catholics, but id as such for ethnic reasons. Pelosi types.
My mom disparagingly calls those folks ‘Chreasters’.
If America reelects B. Hussein Obama, we get what we deserve and I will have no sympathy when we are in a full-blown Depression. I have a house on 5 acres in the country, debt free, and 7 guns. I have a well and can grow my own food. But, God help the city-dwellers.
Re If youre Catholic, and you vote for 0bama,youre not Catholic.
Just remember, there are faithful Catholics, and then there are Catholics like this:
We'll allow God to sort them out in the end...
You can view today's Vortex at http://youtu.be/Nu97OFCPq5A.
Now, the Catholic side of the family (I am Protestant) are and have been firmly against Obama. They see what he is, as could anyone with half a brain and analytical ability have done. His practiced slicing off his words to make them seem important, and his inability to think on his feet, but, especially, his plans to "fundamentally change" this country and his blatant dislike of our Constitution make him uniquely UNQUALIFIED to be POTUS..
This man WILL BE the end of America as we know it if reelected. His color be d@#ned.
IncidentallyMSM, blacks, et al----NEWSFLASH! The bamster is as white as he is black. His color soothes minorities, but that is just the wrapper. Inside, he is pure Chicago thuggery.
Not understanding how the church condones all of this. That is what puzzles me.
Those who vote for any abortion backing candidate cannot be called CATHOLICS. Its that simple. In addition, voting for an atheistic Marxist is double blasphemy. After this election you will have no chance to change your mind, It will be made up for you in D.C. The next ‘president’ will more than likely appoint at least three Supreme Court Judges. It can be the end of the line for Constitutional Governemnt.
It's disappopinting that Morrissey would post that without the caveat that those "numbers" are based on unreliable and unscientific exit polls with suspect methodology. What happened to objectivity, Eddie?
St. John Chrysostom once said "The road to hell is paved with the skulls of bishops." They'll have to answer not only for their own souls, but the souls of those they lost.
Why is it always the “Catholics” in these articles? Members of other religions voted for Obortion O too.
And their support is also down — all I have is old numbers from a couple of years ago. See you later.
there is a law about taxes, and I am sure you are aware of it.
A priest can talk about issues, but cannot recommend a candidate.
Protestant churches don’t seem to be so highly scrutinized on this issue, but I have seen a few articles about Protestant churches in trouble because of some saying “Vote for _______________.
Well, some Protestant churches are obviously exempt from IRS concerns: every Black Church in Chicago held get out the Obama vote rallies in 2008.And they will do it again.
The Church, herself, does not condone this. It has been the fault of bishops and priests who have been lax in preaching The Truth from the pulpit over the past 50 years. They have put “feel-goodism” before saving souls and this watered down theology has resulted in catholics who have no idea what the Church doctrine is and pick and choose which parts they wish to follow. Add in a subversive laity who are more interested in social justice and undermining the church, and you have a climate in which the Obama administration feels comfortable in attacking the one last major opponent to a complete socialist state.
What makes you think those CINOs go to church on Sunday? My wife and I do. We find that 90% of our church friends despise Obama. In our Bible study group, there is only one Obama supporter out of 10 people. The overwhelming majority of folks working in the various ministries feel the same. So, my question is, “Where are all of these Catholic Obama supporters?”