Skip to comments.Gallup: Catholic vote a tossup, 46/46
Posted on 05/03/2012 7:01:44 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
In 2008, Barack Obama won the Catholic vote by nine points, 54/45, over John McCain on his way to a seven-point victory in the national popular vote. Three months after announcing the HHS mandate that would force religious hospitals, schools, and charities to fund contraception, sterilization, and abortifacients, Obama has lost that edge among the tens of millions of Catholic voters. A new Gallup poll shows Obama in a dead heat with Mitt Romney, at just about the same level as McCain got in 2008:
Catholic voters in the United States are evenly split in their support for Barack Obama and Mitt Romney for president, mirroring the national trend. However, Hispanic Catholics --- about 18% of the total group of Catholic voters --- are overwhelmingly likely to support Obama over Romney, while a majority of non-Hispanic white Catholics support Romney.
Obama led Romney by one percentage point, 46% to 45%, among the more than 8,000 registered voters interviewed as part of Gallup Daily tracking conducted April 11-30. Among the 1,915 Catholics interviewed during that time, support for Obama and Romney was almost the same, with 46% support for Obama and 46% for Romney.
Catholics’ divided preferences at this point contrast with those of the largest religious group in the country, Protestants, whose support swings to Romney by 51% to 41%. The split in Catholics’ preferences also differs from the choice among those who identify with another religion or no religion at all, a group that clearly supports Obama, by 58% to 33%.
The Protestant vote is going to be a problem for Obama, too. He lost Protestants to McCain by the same numbers, 45/54. However, the difference in both numbers is that Obama is a known quantity this time, unlike in 2008. Those who remain undecided now are much less likely to break towards the incumbent. Romney already has a ten-point lead among Protestants, and could easily stretch it out to the mid-teens by Election Day. Protestants made up 54% of the electorate in 2008, and it’s probably a safe bet that they’ll turn out even stronger in 2012.
Obama won despite the disadvantage mainly because of his strength among Catholics. Gallup tries to soften the blow by noting that Obama does very well among Hispanic Catholics, 70/20, but they are only about 18% of the bloc. Obama is deeply unpopular among non-Hispanic Catholics, 38/55. Whatever else happens, the Catholic vote won’t come to Obama’s rescue in 2012 as it did in 2008.
The US Conference of Catholic Bishops have not relented one iota on the issue of the HHS mandate, which means these numbers won’t be improving any time soon. That may even start having an impact on Obama’s lead among Hispanic Catholics. Obama will have to defend this intrusion on religious expression, thanks to the USCCB’s energetic attacks, but the administration will have to do better than this:
In sworn testimony before the House Education and Workforce Committee, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said that her general counsel did not write a legal memo explaining the religious freedom issues in the birth control mandate. During the same line of questioning, Sebelius also admitted to being unfamiliar with several important Supreme Court religious freedom cases.
Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.) said that he knew of only three tests that the Supreme Court has used to balance a constitutionally protected freedom against a policy goal. He described those three tests and then asked Sebelius last Thursday, “Which of those three constitutional balancing tests were you making reference to when you said you ‘balanced’ things?”
“Congressman, I’m not a lawyer and I don’t pretend to understand the nuances of the constitutional balancing tests,” Sebelius answered.
“Before this rule was promulgated, did you read any of the Supreme Court cases on religious liberty?” Gowdy later asked.
Sebelius answered that she did not.
Chris Cillizza and Rachel Weiner underscore the importance of this bloc:
As Gallups Frank Newport notes in a memo on the findings, Catholics have historically been a Democratic-leaning constituency the party can thank John F. Kennedy for that one but in recent decades have become more of a toss-up voting bloc.
The eight presidential elections reveal how up for grabs Catholics truly. The Republican nominee has carried Catholics four times, the Democratic nominee has carried Catholics four times. …
Keep an eye on the Catholic vote between now and November. How it goes will tell you a lot about who is going to be the next president.
And as long as the bishops maintain the fight against the Obama administration — and they defend the mandate so badly — it won’t be Obama who wins this bloc.
Those who vote for any abortion backing candidate cannot be called CATHOLICS. Its that simple. In addition, voting for an atheistic Marxist is double blasphemy. After this election you will have no chance to change your mind, It will be made up for you in D.C. The next ‘president’ will more than likely appoint at least three Supreme Court Judges. It can be the end of the line for Constitutional Governemnt.
It's disappopinting that Morrissey would post that without the caveat that those "numbers" are based on unreliable and unscientific exit polls with suspect methodology. What happened to objectivity, Eddie?
St. John Chrysostom once said "The road to hell is paved with the skulls of bishops." They'll have to answer not only for their own souls, but the souls of those they lost.
Why is it always the “Catholics” in these articles? Members of other religions voted for Obortion O too.
And their support is also down — all I have is old numbers from a couple of years ago. See you later.
there is a law about taxes, and I am sure you are aware of it.
A priest can talk about issues, but cannot recommend a candidate.
Protestant churches don’t seem to be so highly scrutinized on this issue, but I have seen a few articles about Protestant churches in trouble because of some saying “Vote for _______________.
Well, some Protestant churches are obviously exempt from IRS concerns: every Black Church in Chicago held get out the Obama vote rallies in 2008.And they will do it again.
The Church, herself, does not condone this. It has been the fault of bishops and priests who have been lax in preaching The Truth from the pulpit over the past 50 years. They have put “feel-goodism” before saving souls and this watered down theology has resulted in catholics who have no idea what the Church doctrine is and pick and choose which parts they wish to follow. Add in a subversive laity who are more interested in social justice and undermining the church, and you have a climate in which the Obama administration feels comfortable in attacking the one last major opponent to a complete socialist state.
What makes you think those CINOs go to church on Sunday? My wife and I do. We find that 90% of our church friends despise Obama. In our Bible study group, there is only one Obama supporter out of 10 people. The overwhelming majority of folks working in the various ministries feel the same. So, my question is, “Where are all of these Catholic Obama supporters?”
After his assault on the Catholic church, I don’t see how he gets any of their votes. Why call yourself a Catholic, if you support a man who attacks your church? What is wrong with these people?
Don't know where they all are at, but I can tell ya without a doubt there are a few hundred thousand living in the Hispanic areas of Houston metro.
In fact, the Diocese of Galveston/Houston supports immigration reform that would allow amnesty to illegals.
Gotta grow the roll.
You’re correct about the CINOs. Any poll which presents the views of persons born into a Catholic family, is not accurately portraying the views of practising Catholics. The Province of Quebec still has about 95% of its population with Catholic family roots, but only about 10% of them still practise the faith. It’s the most liberal province in Canada.
However this story shows how soft the Bishops still are on other so-called Social Justice issues: