Too easy to check, SoFlo. Bush vs Kerry at exactly the same May time frame as now. Notice that Bush (who won) is polling under 50%, and in fact was polling just about where Obama is right now. Even at the time of the election, Bush polled 49% or lower in 10 of the last 12 polls. BUT, he was polling higher than Kerry. The article is shown to be correct in its research. Dick Morris is shown again to be a Trojan Horse (But FoxNews loves the man for some reason.)
So, the research in the article is right. This ONE example proves it for a presidential campaign. And, it's a recent presidential election.
Data is from the archives of Real Clear Politics
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43%
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43%
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4%
|
TIE
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||
|
46%
|
46%
|
4%
|
TIE
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||
|
41%
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47%
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5%
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Kerry +6
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||
|
40%
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40%
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3%
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TIE
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||
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TIPP/IBD
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5/12-5/18
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42%
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41%
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7%
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Bush +1
|
|
42%
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43%
|
5%
|
Kerry +1
|
||
|
45%
|
46%
|
6%
|
Kerry +1
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||
|
42%
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47%
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3%
|
Kerry +5
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||
|
44%
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49%
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6%
|
Kerry +5
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||
|
47%
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45%
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5%
|
Bush +2
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||
|
43%
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46%
|
6%
|
Kerry +3
|
||
|
45%
|
41%
|
5%
|
Bush +4
|
||
|
|
http://www.gallup.com/poll/154037/obama-approval-average.aspx
Here it says: "President Obama's job approval rating averaged 45.9% during his 13th quarter in office...Although Obama's approval rating is improving, this is offset by the fact that it remains below the averages at the same point in time for presidents who were re-elected. All presidents since Eisenhower who were re-elected enjoyed average approval ratings above 50% during their 13th quarters in office.(emphasis added)
And from this site:
http://www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htm
Here is an adequate quote:
An incumbent leading with less than 50% (against one challenger) is frequently in trouble; how much depends on how much less than 50%. A common pattern has been for incumbents ahead with 50% or less to end up losing.
Checks on these sources show they look at the overall tendency for Presidential re-election, not a particular snapshot.
You are correct. Obama can win this election, just as Bush won in 2004. Although those polls are media-biased to favor Kerry, it was a close run thing, and 2012 is as well.
All the more reason to work hard to defeat Obama, because he isnt just gong down on his own, and the results will be very consequential should he win.
Obama’s re-election will be a stunning affirmation of the destruction of the America as it was understood for 200 years, and its replacement with a Euro-socialist welfare state.It’s an affirmation that we approve of cradle-to-grave government intervention in our lives, his pro-abortion policies, his attacks on religious liberty and his undermining of traditional values.
Thanks for the ping!